Detection and Estimation of Nonstationary Power Transients

This chapter looks at issues of non-stationarity in determining when a transient has occurred and when it is possible to fit a linear model to a non-linear response. The first issue is associated with the detection of loss of damping of power system modes. When some control device such as an SVC fails, the operator needs to know whether the damping of key power system oscillation modes has deteriorated significantly. This question is posed here as an alarm detection problem rather than an identification problem to get a fast detection of a change. The second issue concerns when a significant disturbance has occurred and the operator is seeking to characterize the system oscillation. The disturbance initially is large giving a nonlinear response; this then decays and can then be smaller than the noise level ofnormal customer load changes. The difficulty is one of determining when a linear response can be reliably identified between the non-linear phase and the large noise phase of thesignal. The solution proposed in this chapter uses “Time-Frequency” analysis tools to assistthe extraction of the linear model.

Research training and national innovation systems in Australia, Finland and the United States : a policy and systems study supported by 30 case studies of research students in the fields of geospatial science, wireless communication, biosciences, and materials science and engineering

Reforms to the national research and research training system by the Commonwealth Government of Australia sought to effectively connect research conducted in universities to Australia's national innovation system. Research training has a key role in ensuring an adequate supply of highly skilled people for the national innovation system. During their studies, research students produce and disseminate a massive amount of new knowledge. Prior to this study, there was no research that examined the contribution of research training to Australia's national innovation system despite the existence of policy initiatives aiming to enhance this contribution. Given Australia's below average (but improving) innovation performance compared to other OECD countries, the inclusion of Finland and the United States provided further insights into the key research question. This study examined three obvious ways that research training contributes to the national innovation systems in the three countries: the international mobility and migration of research students and graduates, knowledge production and distribution by research students, and the impact of research training as advanced human capital formation on economic growth. Findings have informed the concept of a research training culture of innovation that aims to enhance the contribution of research training to Australia's national innovation system. Key features include internationally competitive research and research training environments; research training programs that equip students with economically-relevant knowledge and the capabilities required by employers operating in knowledge-based economies; attractive research careers in different sectors; a national commitment to R&D as indicated by high levels of gross and business R&D expenditure; high private and social rates of return from research training; and the horizontal coordination of key organisations that create policy for, and/or invest in research training.

On the optimal capacity expansion of electric power systems

The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia.

On the optimal capacity expansion of electric power systems

The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia

Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Measurement of standby power for selected electrical appliances in Australia

High growth in the uptake of electrical appliances is accounting for a significant increase in electricity consumption globally. In some developed countries, standby energy alone may account for about 10% of residential electricity use. The standby power for many appliances used in Australia is still well above the national goal of 1 W or less. In this paper, field measurements taken of standby power and operating power for a range of electrical appliances are presented. It was found that the difference between minimum value and maximum value of standby power could be quite large, up to 22.13 W for home theatre systems, for example. With the exception of home audio systems, however, the annual operating energy used by most electrical appliances was generally greater than the annual standby energy. Consumer behaviour and product choice can have a significant impact on standby power and operating power, which influences both energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.

Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

LMP estimation considering the uncertainty of wind power

One of the impediments to large-scale use of wind generation within power system is its variable and uncertain real-time availability. Due to the low marginal cost of wind power, its output will change the merit order of power markets and influence the Locational Marginal Price (LMP). For the large scale of wind power, LMP calculation can't ignore the essential variable and uncertain nature of wind power. This paper proposes an algorithm to estimate LMP. The estimation result of conventional Monte Carlo simulation is taken as benchmark to examine accuracy. Case study is conducted on a simplified SE Australian power system, and the simulation results show the feasibility of proposed method.

Enlightenment out of chaos : power, politics and The Chaser’s War on Everything

This paper focuses on the satirical Australian television show The Chaser’s War on Everything, and uses it to critically explore the potential ramifications of what McNair (2006) has called ‘cultural chaos’. Through an analysis of several examples from this particular program, alongside interviews with its production team and qualitative audience research, this paper argues that this TV show’s engagement with political issues in a creative, entertaining way that departs from the conventions of traditional journalism, allows it to present a perhaps more authentic image of political agents than is often cultivated in the mainstream news media. This paper therefore provides clear evidence that the shift from homogeneity to heterogeneity in the news media presents a significant challenge to those who wish to heavily control public opinion. It also provides further support for an optimistic re-appraisal of entertainment which emphasises its central (not merely periphery) role in political discourse.

Pathways for developing a 'smart' workforce : does the achievement of formal workplace qualifications encourage participation in higher education?

The purpose of this paper is to investigate a public workforce education initiative in the context of State and agency policies designed to enhance employee capabilities to adapt to a volatile and changing environment. In particular, we are concerned with public employees’ experience of a higher educational pathway that resulted in their obtaining a Diploma level qualification. In addition to understanding the employees’ experience of this pathway we were interested in whether the experience contributed to their openness to the prospect of university level education. We conducted telephone interviews with a sample of participants from the program. Employees reported very positive experience of the program; in particular employees reported enhanced efficacy beliefs, a strong sense of achievement, and a feeling of recognition. This experience is explained by four main factors; (1) a program design that was well aligned with the employees learning needs, (2) strong support by organisational staff who delivered and assessed participants on capability criteria, (3) strong management support for employees’ participation, (4) an academic ceremony that provided participants with public recognition of their achievement by valued others. Participants’ motivation to participate was primarily intrinsic rather than extrinsic. Participants in the study reported that their experience in this educational pathway gave them the confidence to consider the possibility of university level education. The paper also discusses the practitioner-academic collaboration that led to the development of this paper.

Impact of wind power development on transmission planning at Midwest ISO

The Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (MISO) has experienced significant amounts of wind power development within the last decade. The MISO footprint spans the majority of the upper Midwest region of the country, from the Dakotas to Indiana and as far east as Michigan. These areas have a rich wind energy resource. States in the MISO footprint have passed laws or set goals that require load serving entities to supply a portion of their load using renewable energy. In order to meet these requirements, significant investments are needed to build the transmission infrastructure necessary to deliver the power from these often remote wind energy resources to the load centers. This paper presents some of the transmission planning related work done at MISO which was largely influenced by current and future needs for increased wind power generation in the footprint. Specifically, topics covered are generator interconnection, long-term planning coordination, and cost-allocation for new transmission lines.

Effects of various power system stabilizers on improving power system dynamic performance

To ensure the small-signal stability of a power system, power system stabilizers (PSSs) are extensively applied for damping low frequency power oscillations through modulating the excitation supplied to synchronous machines, and increasing interest has been focused on developing different PSS schemes to tackle the threat of damping oscillations to power system stability. This paper examines four different PSS models and investigates their performances on damping power system dynamics using both small-signal eigenvalue analysis and large-signal dynamic simulations. The four kinds of PSSs examined include the Conventional PSS (CPSS), Single Neuron based PSS (SNPSS), Adaptive PSS (APSS) and Multi-band PSS (MBPSS). A steep descent parameter optimization algorithm is employed to seek the optimal PSS design parameters. To evaluate the effects of these PSSs on improving power system dynamic behaviors, case studies are carried out on an 8-unit 24-bus power system through both small-signal eigenvalue analysis and large-signal time-domain simulations.

Lynch syndrome-associated breast cancers: clinicopathologic characteristics of a case series from the colon cancer family registry

Purpose: The recognition of breast cancer as a spectrum tumor in Lynch syndrome remains controversial. The aim of this study was to explore features of breast cancers arising in Lynch syndrome families. Experimental Design: This observational study involved 107 cases of breast cancer identified from the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (Colon CFR) from 90 families in which (a) both breast and colon cancer co-occurred, (b) families met either modified Amsterdam criteria, or had at least one early-onset (<50 years) colorectal cancer, and (c) breast tissue was available within the biospecimen repository for mismatch repair (MMR) testing. Eligibility criteria for enrollment in the Colon CFR are available online. Breast cancers were reviewed by one pathologist. Tumor sections were stained for MLH1, PMS2, MSH2, and MSH6, and underwent microsatellite instability testing. Results: Breast cancer arose in 35 mutation carriers, and of these, 18 (51%) showed immunohistochemical absence of MMR protein corresponding to the MMR gene mutation segregating the family. MMR-deficient breast cancers were more likely to be poorly differentiated (P = 0.005) with a high mitotic index (P = 0.002), steroid hormone receptor–negative (estrogen receptor, P = 0.031; progesterone receptor, P = 0.022), and to have peritumoral lymphocytes (P = 0.015), confluent necrosis (P = 0.002), and growth in solid sheets (P < 0.001) similar to their colorectal counterparts. No difference in age of onset was noted between the MMR-deficient and MMR-intact groups. Conclusions: MMR deficiency was identified in 51% of breast cancers arising in known mutation carriers. Breast cancer therefore may represent a valid tissue option for the detection of MMR deficiency in which spectrum tumors are lacking

Learning hierarchical prototypes of motion time series for interactive systems

Abstract. For interactive systems, recognition, reproduction, and generalization of observed motion data are crucial for successful interaction. In this paper, we present a novel method for analysis of motion data that we refer to as K-OMM-trees. K-OMM-trees combine Ordered Means Models (OMMs) a model-based machine learning approach for time series with an hierarchical analysis technique for very large data sets, the K-tree algorithm. The proposed K-OMM-trees enable unsupervised prototype extraction of motion time series data with hierarchical data representation. After introducing the algorithmic details, we apply the proposed method to a gesture data set that includes substantial inter-class variations. Results from our studies show that K-OMM-trees are able to substantially increase the recognition performance and to learn an inherent data hierarchy with meaningful gesture abstractions.