Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Variable-Temperature EPR and Transport Studies on Poly(4,4'-methylenedianiline): Evidence for Bipolarons

The correlation between magnetic and transport properties is examined by studying poly(4,4'-methylenedianiline)(PMDA) salts and their bases using EPR and conductivity measurements. Five different PMDA salts (doped polymers)were prepared by chemical polymerization of 4,4'-methylenedianiline using different protonic acids. The PMDA bases were obtained by dedoping the salts using ammonium hydroxide. Ambient temperature electrical conductivity measurements show evidence for the doped PMDA system to be highly disordered. The EPR spectra of the samples were recorded in the range 20-200 "C, and the results were analyzed on the basis of the polaron-bipolaron model, which is typical of nondegenerate systems. Both PMDA salts and their bases consist of self-trapped, highly mobile polarons or radical cations. EPR studies on PMDA salts show evidence for the presence of thermally activated and temperature independent (or Pauli type) paramagnetism while the bases show thermally activated, Pauli and Curie-Weiss types of paramagnetism. The paramagnetism arises due to polarons.It is proposed that charge transport takes place through both polarons and bipolarons.

An economic approach towards estimating health impacts of major transport investments and transport policies: A case study of transport emission abatement policy

The PhD thesis developed an economic model as an integral part of the current Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework. Based on a Health Production Function approach, the model showed how to estimate economic benefits of positive health gains generated by transport investment programs and transport policies. Using Australian mortality and morbidity statistics and applying econometric analysis, the case study quantified health benefits induced by transport emission abatement policies in dollar terms for the Australian households. Finally, the thesis demonstrated transferability of the economic model through two example case studies, establishing a wider application capacity of the model.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

A possible explanation of the Maunder minimum from a flux transport dynamo model

We propose that the poloidal field at the end of the last sunspot cycle before the Maunder minimum fell to a very low value due to fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton process. With this assumption, a flux transport dynamo model is able to explain various aspects of the historical records of the Maunder minimum remarkably well by suitably choosing the parameters of the model to give the correct growth time.

Dynamics and transport properties of Kondo insulators

A many-body theory of paramagnetic Kondo insulators is described, focusing specifically on single-particle dynamics, scattering rates, dc transport and optical conductivities. This is achieved by development of a non-perturbative local moment approach to the symmetric periodic Anderson model within the framework of dynamical mean-field theory. Our natural focus is the strong-coupling, Kondo lattice regime, in particular the resultant 'universal' scaling behaviour in terms of the single, exponentially small low-energy scale characteristic of the problem. Dynamics/transport on all relevant (ω, T)-scales are considered, from the gapped/activated behaviour characteristic of the low-temperature insulator through to explicit connection to single-impurity physics at high ω and/or T; and for optical conductivities emphasis is given to the nature of the optical gap, the temperature scale responsible for its destruction and the consequent clear distinction between indirect and direct gap scales. Using scaling, explicit comparison is also made to experimental results for dc transport and optical conductivities of Ce3Bi4Pt3, SmB6 and YbB12. Good agreement is found, even quantitatively; and a mutually consistent picture of transport and optics results.

A Single-Crystal Study Of The Defect Chemistry And Transport-Properties Of Silver Selenide, Ag2+Delta-Se

Electronic and ionic conductivities of silver selenide crystal (Ag$_2+\delta$ Se) have been measured over a range of stoichiometry through the $\alpha - \beta$ transition by using solid state electrochemical techniques. In the high temperature $\beta$-phase Ag$_2$Se shows metallic behaviour of electronic conductivity for high values of $\delta$; with decrease in $\delta$, the conductivity of the material exhibits a transition. The magnitude of change in electronic conductivity at the $\alpha - \beta$ transition is also determined by stoichiometry. Ionic conductivity of the $\beta$-phase does not vary significantly with stochiometry. Ionic conductivity of the $\beta$-does not vary significantly with stoichiometry. A model to explain the observed transport properties has been suggested.

A computational study of heat transfer, soot production and transport in an acetylene-air laminar diffusion flame in the field of a line vortex

The present work involves a computational study of soot formation and transport in case of a laminar acetylene diffusion flame perturbed by a co nvecting line vortex. The topology of the soot contours (as in an earlier experimental work [4]) have been investigated. More soot was produced when vortex was introduced from the air si de in comparison to a fuel side vortex. Also the soot topography was more diffused in case of the air side vortex. The computational model was found to be in good agreement with the ex perimental work [4]. The computational simulation enabled a study of the various parameters affecting soot transport. Temperatures were found to be higher in case of air side vortex as compared to a fuel side vortex. In case of the fuel side vortex, abundance of fuel in the vort ex core resulted in stoichiometrically rich combustion in the vortex core, and more discrete so ot topography. Overall soot production too was low. In case of the air side vortex abundan ce of air in the core resulted in higher temperatures and more soot yield. Statistical techniques like probability density fun ction, correlation coefficient and conditional probability function were introduced to explain the transient dependence of soot yield and transport on various parameters like temperature, a cetylene concentration.

A computational study of flame dynamics on soot production and transport for an acetylene-air laminar diffusion flame in the field of a convecting line vortex

The present work involves a computational study of soot formation and transport in case of a laminar acetylene diffusion flame perturbed by a convecting line vortex. The topology of the soot contours (as in an earlier experimental work [4]) have been investigated. More soot was produced when vortex was introduced from the air side in comparison to a fuel side vortex. Also the soot topography was more diffused in case of the air side vortex. The computational model was found to be in good agreement with the experimental work [4]. The computational simulation enabled a study of the various parameters affecting soot transport. Temperatures were found to be higher in case of air side vortex as compared to a fuel side vortex. In case of the fuel side vortex, abundance of fuel in the vort ex core resulted in stoichiometrically rich combustion in the vortex core, and more discrete soot topography. Overall soot production too was low. In case of the air side vortex abundance of air in the core resulted in higher temperatures and more soot yield. Statistical techniques like probability density function, correlation coefficient and conditional probability function were introduced to explain the transient dependence of soot yield and transport on various parameters like temperature, a cetylene concentration.

Ship-Mounted Real-Time Surface Observational System on board Indian Vessels for Validation and Refinement of Model Forcing Fields

A network of ship-mounted real-time Automatic Weather Stations integrated with Indian geosynchronous satellites Indian National Satellites (INSATs)] 3A and 3C, named Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services Real-Time Automatic Weather Stations (I-RAWS), is established. The purpose of I-RAWS is to measure the surface meteorological-ocean parameters and transmit the data in real time in order to validate and refine the forcing parameters (obtained from different meteorological agencies) of the Indian Ocean Forecasting System (INDOFOS). Preliminary validation and intercomparison of analyzed products obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using the data collected from I-RAWS were carried out. This I-RAWS was mounted on board oceanographic research vessel Sagar Nidhi during a cruise across three oceanic regimes, namely, the tropical Indian Ocean, the extratropical Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean. The results obtained from such a validation and intercomparison, and its implications with special reference to the usage of atmospheric model data for forcing ocean model, are discussed in detail. It is noticed that the performance of analysis products from both atmospheric models is similar and good; however, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts air temperature over the extratropical Indian Ocean and wind speed in the Southern Ocean are marginally better.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

Modelling soil erosion and transport in the Burrishoole catchment, Newport, Co. Mayo, Ireland

The Burrishoole catchment is situated in County Mayo, on the northwest coast of the Republic of Ireland. Much of the catchment is covered by blanket peat that, in many areas, has become heavily eroded in recent years. This is thought to be due, primarily, to the adverse effects of forestry and agricultural activities in the area. Such activities include ploughing, drainage, the planting and harvesting of trees, and sheep farming, all of which are potentially damaging to such a sensitive landscape if not managed carefully. This article examines the sediment yield and hydrology of the Burrishoole catchment. Flow and sediment concentrations were measured at 8-hourly intervals from 5 February 2001 to 8 November 2001 with an automatic sampler and separate flow gauge, and hourly averages were recorded between 4 July 2002 and 6 September 2002 using an automatic river monitoring system [ARMS]. The authors describe the GIS-based model of soil erosion and transport that was applied to the Burrishoole catchment during this study. The results of these analyses were compared, in a qualitative manner, with the aerial photography available for the Burrishoole catchment to see whether areas that were predicted to contribute large proportions of eroded material to the drainage network corresponded with areas where peat erosion could be identified through photo-interpretation.

Fabrication and transport properties of ZnO/Nb-1 wt %-doped SrTiO3 epitaxial heterojunctions

(110) ZnO/(001) Nb-1 wt %-doped SrTiO3 n-n type heteroepitaxial junctions were fabricated using the pulse laser deposition method. A diodelike current behavior was observed. Different from conventional p-n junctions or Schottky diodes, the diffusion voltage was found to increase with temperature. At all temperatures, the forward current was perfectly fitted on the thermionic emission model. The band bending at the interface can qualitatively explain our results, and the extracted high ideality factor at low temperatures, as well as large saturation currents, is ascribed to the deep-level-assisted tunneling current through the junction. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Interplay between partial incoherence, partial inelasticity, resonance, and heterogeneity in long-range electron transfer and transport

A generalized scattering matrix formalism is constructed to elucidate the interplay of electron resonance, coherence, dephasing, inelastic scattering, and heterogeneity, which play important roles in the physics of long-range electron transfer/transport. The theory consists of an extension of the standard Buttiker phase-breaking model and an analytical expression of the electron transmission coefficient for donor-bridge-acceptor systems with arbitrary length and sequence. The theory incorporates the following features: Dephasing-assisted off-resonance enhancement, inelasticity-induced turnover, resonance enhancement and its dephasing-induced suppression, dephasing-induced smooth superexchange-hopping transition, and heterogeneity effects. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.