Analysis of distrubances in large interconnected power systems

World economies increasingly demand reliable and economical power supply and distribution. To achieve this aim the majority of power systems are becoming interconnected, with several power utilities supplying the one large network. One problem that occurs in a large interconnected power system is the regular occurrence of system disturbances which can result in the creation of intra-area oscillating modes. These modes can be regarded as the transient responses of the power system to excitation, which are generally characterised as decaying sinusoids. For a power system operating ideally these transient responses would ideally would have a “ring-down” time of 10-15 seconds. Sometimes equipment failures disturb the ideal operation of power systems and oscillating modes with ring-down times greater than 15 seconds arise. The larger settling times associated with such “poorly damped” modes cause substantial power flows between generation nodes, resulting in significant physical stresses on the power distribution system. If these modes are not just poorly damped but “negatively damped”, catastrophic failures of the system can occur. To ensure system stability and security of large power systems, the potentially dangerous oscillating modes generated from disturbances (such as equipment failure) must be quickly identified. The power utility must then apply appropriate damping control strategies. In power system monitoring there exist two facets of critical interest. The first is the estimation of modal parameters for a power system in normal, stable, operation. The second is the rapid detection of any substantial changes to this normal, stable operation (because of equipment breakdown for example). Most work to date has concentrated on the first of these two facets, i.e. on modal parameter estimation. Numerous modal parameter estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented, but all have limitations [1-13]. One of the key limitations of all existing parameter estimation methods is the fact that they require very long data records to provide accurate parameter estimates. This is a particularly significant problem after a sudden detrimental change in damping. One simply cannot afford to wait long enough to collect the large amounts of data required for existing parameter estimators. Motivated by this gap in the current body of knowledge and practice, the research reported in this thesis focuses heavily on rapid detection of changes (i.e. on the second facet mentioned above). This thesis reports on a number of new algorithms which can rapidly flag whether or not there has been a detrimental change to a stable operating system. It will be seen that the new algorithms enable sudden modal changes to be detected within quite short time frames (typically about 1 minute), using data from power systems in normal operation. The new methods reported in this thesis are summarised below. The Energy Based Detector (EBD): The rationale for this method is that the modal disturbance energy is greater for lightly damped modes than it is for heavily damped modes (because the latter decay more rapidly). Sudden changes in modal energy, then, imply sudden changes in modal damping. Because the method relies on data from power systems in normal operation, the modal disturbances are random. Accordingly, the disturbance energy is modelled as a random process (with the parameters of the model being determined from the power system under consideration). A threshold is then set based on the statistical model. The energy method is very simple to implement and is computationally efficient. It is, however, only able to determine whether or not a sudden modal deterioration has occurred; it cannot identify which mode has deteriorated. For this reason the method is particularly well suited to smaller interconnected power systems that involve only a single mode. Optimal Individual Mode Detector (OIMD): As discussed in the previous paragraph, the energy detector can only determine whether or not a change has occurred; it cannot flag which mode is responsible for the deterioration. The OIMD seeks to address this shortcoming. It uses optimal detection theory to test for sudden changes in individual modes. In practice, one can have an OIMD operating for all modes within a system, so that changes in any of the modes can be detected. Like the energy detector, the OIMD is based on a statistical model and a subsequently derived threshold test. The Kalman Innovation Detector (KID): This detector is an alternative to the OIMD. Unlike the OIMD, however, it does not explicitly monitor individual modes. Rather it relies on a key property of a Kalman filter, namely that the Kalman innovation (the difference between the estimated and observed outputs) is white as long as the Kalman filter model is valid. A Kalman filter model is set to represent a particular power system. If some event in the power system (such as equipment failure) causes a sudden change to the power system, the Kalman model will no longer be valid and the innovation will no longer be white. Furthermore, if there is a detrimental system change, the innovation spectrum will display strong peaks in the spectrum at frequency locations associated with changes. Hence the innovation spectrum can be monitored to both set-off an “alarm” when a change occurs and to identify which modal frequency has given rise to the change. The threshold for alarming is based on the simple Chi-Squared PDF for a normalised white noise spectrum [14, 15]. While the method can identify the mode which has deteriorated, it does not necessarily indicate whether there has been a frequency or damping change. The PPM discussed next can monitor frequency changes and so can provide some discrimination in this regard. The Polynomial Phase Method (PPM): In [16] the cubic phase (CP) function was introduced as a tool for revealing frequency related spectral changes. This thesis extends the cubic phase function to a generalised class of polynomial phase functions which can reveal frequency related spectral changes in power systems. A statistical analysis of the technique is performed. When applied to power system analysis, the PPM can provide knowledge of sudden shifts in frequency through both the new frequency estimate and the polynomial phase coefficient information. This knowledge can be then cross-referenced with other detection methods to provide improved detection benchmarks.

Large area noise evaluation

A software tool (DRONE) has been developed to evaluate road traffic noise in a large area with the consideration of network dynamic traffic flow and the buildings. For more precise estimation of noise in urban network where vehicles are mainly in stop and go running conditions, vehicle sound power level (for acceleration/deceleration cruising and ideal vehicle) is incorporated in DRONE. The calculation performance of DRONE is increased by evaluating the noise in two steps of first estimating the unit noise database and then integrating it with traffic simulation. Details of the process from traffic simulation to contour maps are discussed in the paper and the implementation of DRONE on Tsukuba city is presented

Conifer defence against insects: microarray gene expression profiling of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) induced by mechanical wounding or feeding by spruce budworms (Choristoneura occidentalis) or white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi) reveals large

Conifers are resistant to attack from a large number of potential herbivores or pathogens. Previous molecular and biochemical characterization of selected conifer defence systems support a model of multigenic, constitutive and induced defences that act on invading insects via physical, chemical, biochemical or ecological (multitrophic) mechanisms. However, the genomic foundation of the complex defence and resistance mechanisms of conifers is largely unknown. As part of a genomics strategy to characterize inducible defences and possible resistance mechanisms of conifers against insect herbivory, we developed a cDNA microarray building upon a new spruce (Picea spp.) expressed sequence tag resource. This first-generation spruce cDNA microarray contains 9720 cDNA elements representing c. 5500 unique genes. We used this array to monitor gene expression in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) bark in response to herbivory by white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi, Curculionidae) or wounding, and in young shoot tips in response to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis, Lepidopterae) feeding. Weevils are stem-boring insects that feed on phloem, while budworms are foliage feeding larvae that consume needles and young shoot tips. Both insect species and wounding treatment caused substantial changes of the host plant transcriptome detected in each case by differential gene expression of several thousand array elements at 1 or 2 d after the onset of treatment. Overall, there was considerable overlap among differentially expressed gene sets from these three stress treatments. Functional classification of the induced transcripts revealed genes with roles in general plant defence, octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, transport, secondary metabolism, and transcriptional regulation. Several genes involved in primary metabolic processes such as photosynthesis were down-regulated upon insect feeding or wounding, fitting with the concept of dynamic resource allocation in plant defence. Refined expression analysis using gene-specific primers and real-time PCR for selected transcripts was in agreement with microarray results for most genes tested. This study provides the first large-scale survey of insect-induced defence transcripts in a gymnosperm and provides a platform for functional investigation of plant-insect interactions in spruce. Induction of spruce genes of octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, terpenoid biosynthesis, and phenolic secondary metabolism are discussed in more detail.

An alginate-based hybrid system for growth factor delivery in the functional repair of large bone defects

The treatment of challenging fractures and large osseous defects presents a formidable problem for orthopaedic surgeons. Tissue engineering/regenerative medicine approaches seek to solve this problem by delivering osteogenic signals within scaffolding biomaterials. In this study, we introduce a hybrid growth factor delivery system that consists of an electrospun nanofiber mesh tube for guiding bone regeneration combined with peptide-modified alginate hydrogel injected inside the tube for sustained growth factor release. We tested the ability of this system to deliver recombinant bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) for the repair of critically-sized segmental bone defects in a rat model. Longitudinal [mu]-CT analysis and torsional testing provided quantitative assessment of bone regeneration. Our results indicate that the hybrid delivery system resulted in consistent bony bridging of the challenging bone defects. However, in the absence of rhBMP-2, the use of nanofiber mesh tube and alginate did not result in substantial bone formation. Perforations in the nanofiber mesh accelerated the rhBMP-2 mediated bone repair, and resulted in functional restoration of the regenerated bone. [mu]-CT based angiography indicated that perforations did not significantly affect the revascularization of defects, suggesting that some other interaction with the tissue surrounding the defect such as improved infiltration of osteoprogenitor cells contributed to the observed differences in repair. Overall, our results indicate that the hybrid alginate/nanofiber mesh system is a promising growth factor delivery strategy for the repair of challenging bone injuries.

Identifying large truck hot spots using crash counts and PDOEs

Large trucks are involved in a disproportionately small fraction of the total crashes but a disproportionately large fraction of fatal crashes. Large truck crashes often result in significant congestion due to their large physical dimensions and from difficulties in clearing crash scenes. Consequently, preventing large truck crashes is critical to improving highway safety and operations. This study identifies high risk sites (hot spots) for large truck crashes in Arizona and examines potential risk factors related to the design and operation of the high risk sites. High risk sites were identified using both state of the practice methods (accident reduction potential using negative binomial regression with long crash histories) and a newly proposed method using Property Damage Only Equivalents (PDOE). The hot spots identified via the count model generally exhibited low fatalities and major injuries but large minor injuries and PDOs, while the opposite trend was observed using the PDOE methodology. The hot spots based on the count model exhibited large AADTs, whereas those based on the PDOE showed relatively small AADTs but large fractions of trucks and high posted speed limits. Documented site investigations of hot spots revealed numerous potential risk factors, including weaving activities near freeway junctions and ramps, absence of acceleration lanes near on-ramps, small shoulders to accommodate large trucks, narrow lane widths, inadequate signage, and poor lighting conditions within a tunnel.

Quantitative evaluation of route allocation solutions at large-scale passenger stations

Routing trains within passenger stations in major cities is a common scheduling problem for railway operation. Various studies have been undertaken to derive and formulate solutions to this route allocation problem (RAP) which is particularly evident in mainland China nowadays because of the growing traffic demand and limited station capacity. A reasonable solution must be selected from a set of available RAP solutions attained in the planning stage to facilitate station operation. The selection is however based on the experience of the operators only and objective evaluation of the solutions is rarely addressed. In order to maximise the utilisation of station capacity while maintaining service quality and allowing for service disturbance, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is highly desirable. In this study, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is proposed and it is enabled by a set of indices covering infrastructure utilisation, buffer times and delay propagation. The proposed evaluation is carried out on a number of RAP solutions at a real-life busy railway station in mainland China and the results highlight the effectiveness of the indices in pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses of the solutions. This study provides the necessary platform to improve the RAP solution in planning and to allow train re-routing upon service disturbances.

Efficient querying of large process model repositories

Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective and less error-prone than developing them from scratch. Since process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. To make our approach more applicable, we consider the semantic similarity between labels. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our approach is efficient.

Strategies to facilitate grading consistency in large classes

First year undergraduate university classes can be very large, and big student numbers often creates a challenge for instructors to ensure assignments are graded consistently across the cohort. This session describes and demonstrates the use of interactive audience response technology (ART) with assessors (rather than students) to moderate assignment grading. Results from preliminary research indicate this method of moderating the grading of assignments is effective, and achieves more consistent outcomes for students.

Meshless TL and UL approaches for large deformation analysis

To accurately and effectively simulate large deformation is one of the major challenges in numerical modeling of metal forming. In this paper, an adaptive local meshless formulation based on the meshless shape functions and the local weak-form is developed for the large deformation analysis. Total Lagrangian (TL) and the Updated Lagrangian (UL) approaches are used and thoroughly compared each other in computational efficiency and accuracy. It has been found that the developed meshless technique provides a superior performance to the conventional FEM in dealing with large deformation problems for metal forming. In addition, the TL has better computational efficiency than the UL. However, the adaptive analysis is much more efficient using the UL approach than using in the TL approach.