A framework for extreme-event control in wastewater treatment

In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

a-SiH p-i-n structures with extreme i-layer thickness

We present measurements and numerical simulation of a-Si:H p-i-n detectors with a wide range of intrinsic layer thickness between 2 and 10 pm. Such a large active layer thickness is required in applications like elementary particle detectors or X-ray detectors. For large thickness and depending on the applied bias, we observe a sharp peak in the spectral response in the red region near 700 nm. Simulation results obtained with the program ASCA are in agreement with the measurement and permit the explanation of the experimental data. In thick samples holes recombine or are trapped before reaching the contacts, and the conduction mechanism is fully electron dominated. As a consequence, the peak position in the spectral response is located near the optical band gap of the a-Si:H i-layer. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Immune responses in Bathymodiolus azoricus upon Vibrio challenges : approaches to characterize mussel survival strategies and physiological adaptations in deep sea extreme environments

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, especialidade de Biologia Marinha, 18 de Dezembro de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.

Microeukaryoticdiversity in the extreme environments of the Iberian PyriteBelt: a comparison between universal and fungi-specific primer sets, temperature gradient gel electrophoresis and cloning

FEMS Microbiology Ecology, Vol. 57, nº 1

Using GIS to map the spatial and temporal occurrence of cholera epidemic in Camaroon

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Relationship between rainfall and temperature: observations on the cases of visceral leishmaniasis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem that requires global control strategies, especially with respect to factors that may intervene in reducing the incidence of endemicity. In this work, rainfall density and temperature were correlated with the incidence of human cases in an area endemic for leishmaniasis in São Luis do Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS: Notification of human cases by the National Health Foundation/Regional Coordination of Maranhão (FUNASA/COREMA) from 2002 to 2010 was used. Ecological data (mean temperature and rainfall density) were provided by the Meteorological Office of State. RESULTS: A significant association was verified between the number of VL cases and rainfall rate but not in the analysis concerning mean temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the control actions in visceral leishmaniasis should be performed during rainy season in the State of Maranhão, which is in the first half of the year.

Schistosomiasis mansoni in urban Northeast Brazil: influence of rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria sp.

Introduction Our objective was to evaluate the influence of rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria in a potential urban focus of schistosomiasis in Aracaju, Brazil, during 2009-2010. Methods Snails were collected monthly and were counted, measured and identified; the level of infection and fecal contamination at the sampling sites was determined; rainfall data were obtained. Results High levels of fecal contamination were observed, and the abundance of Biomphalaria glabrata increased during the rainy and post-rainy seasons. The snails' size was variable, and infected snails were identified independently of rainfall. Conclusions These results provide evidence of anthropogenic and climate interference in an urban focus of schistosomiasis in the Aracaju metropolitan area.

Wage adjustments under extreme downward nominal wage rigidity

Using a rich and highly accurate dataset for Portugal spanning from 1986 to 2013, this paper analyzes the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity, mainly focusing on macroeconomic factors. The data supports the hypothesis that recessionary periods alongside with low in ation contribute to a higher degree of wage rigidity, as measured by the incidence of nominal wage freezes. It is further highlighted how this lack of wage adjustments con- tributed to an increase in labor costs which culminated in a wage markup of 6-7%. This paper, thus seems to corroborate the argument that low in ation did exacerbated the downward in exibility of (real) wages after the Great Recession.

Local Rainfall Variability - A Potential Bias for Bioecological Studies in the Central Amazon

Rainfall data registered betwe en 1910 and 1979 at Manaus confirm the existence of a dry season between June and November (monthly rainfall: 42-162mm) and a rainy season from December until May (monthly rainfall: 211-300mm). Annual precipitation amounted to 2105mm with about 75% of the rainfall recorded during the rainy season. Rainfall data collected over 12 months at eigth stations in the vicinity of and at Manaus are compared. Annual precipitation was lower in Inundation Regions (1150-2150mm) compared with Dryland Regions (2400-2550mm). Considerable differences are found in rainfall patterns (intensity, frequency and time of rainfall). This is also truefor neighbouring stations, even if data of a 11-year record period are compared. Thus, it is highly recommended that preciptation data for bioecological studies be collected at the study site.

On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998

The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for north/south dipole pattern (warm or cold) of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic present values (magnitude and sign) consistent with those found in previous works on the relationship between Amazon rainfall variations and the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. However, austral summer and autumn composites for the years with simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and warm north/south dipole of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic show negative precipitation anomalies extending eastward over the center-eastern Amazon. This result indicates the important role played by the tropical Atlantic in the Amazon anomalous rainfall distribution.

Diurnal variability of rainfall in southwest Amazonia during the LBA-TRMM field campaign of the austral summer of 1999

The TRMM-LBA field campaign was held during the austral summer of 1999 in southwestern Amazonia. Among the major objectives, was the identification and description of the diurnal variability of rainfall in the region, associated with the different rain producing weather systems that occurred during the January-February season. By using a network of 40 digital rain gauges implemented in the state of Rondônia, and together with observations and analyses of circulation and convection, it was possible to identify details of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and the associated rainfall mechanisms. Rainfall episodes were characterized by regimes of "low-level easterly" and "westerly" winds in the context of the large-scale circulation. The westerly regime is related to an enhanced South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and an intense and/or wide Low Level Jet (LLJ) east of the Andes, which can extend eastward towards Rondônia, even though some westerly regime episodes also show a LLJ that remains close to the foothill of the Andes. The easterly regime is related to easterly propagating systems (e.g. squall-lines) with possible weakened or less frequent LLJs and a suppressed SACZ. Diurnal variability of rainfall during westerly surface wind regime shows a characteristic maximum at late afternoon followed by a relatively weaker second maximum at early evening (2100 Local Standard Time LST). The easterly regime composite shows an early morning maximum followed by an even stronger maximum in the afternoon.

Microphysical evidence of the transition between predominant convective/stratiform rainfall associated with the intraseasonal oscillation in the Southwest Amazon

The distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation profiles around various precipitating systems existent in tropical regions is very important to the global atmospheric circulation, which is extremely sensitive to vertical latent heat distribution. In South America, the convective activity responds to the Intraseasonal Oscillation (IOS). This paper analyzes a disdrometer and a radar profiler data, installed in the Ji-Paraná airport, RO, Brazil, for the field experiment WETAMC/LBA & TRMM/LBA, during January and February of 1999. The microphysical analysis of wind regimes associated with IOS showed a large difference in type, size and microphysical processes of hydrometeor growth in each wind regime: easterly regimes had more turbulence and consequently convective precipitation formation, and westerly regimes had a more stratiform precipitation formation.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.