Using Behavioral Insights For a Better Understanding of Economic Decisions (Regarding Savings, Inequality and Dishonesty)

This dissertation consists of three essays on behavioral economics, with a general aim of enriching our understanding of economic decisions using behavioral insights and experimental methodology. Each essay takes on one particular topic with this general aim.

The first chapter studies savings behavior of the poor. In this project, partnering with a savings product provider in Kenya, we tested the extent to which behavioral interventions and financial incentives can increase the saving rate of individuals with low and irregular income. Our experiment lasted for six months and included a total of twelve conditions. The control condition received weekly reminders and balance reporting via text messages. The treatment conditions received in addition one of the following interventions: (1) reminder text messages framed as if they came from the participant’s kid (2) a golden colored coin with numbers for each week of the trial, on which participants were asked to keep track of their weekly deposits (3) a match of weekly savings: The match was either 10% or 20% up to a certain amount per week. The match was either deposited at the end of each week or the highest possible match was deposited at the start of each week and was adjusted at the end. Among these interventions, by far the most effective was the coin: Those in the coin condition saved on average the highest amount and more than twice as those in the control condition. We hypothesize that being a tangible track-keeping object; the coin made subjects remember to save more often. Our results support the line of literature suggesting that saving decisions involve psychological aspects and that policy makers and product designers should take these influences into account.

The second chapter is related to views towards inequality. In this project, we investigate how the perceived fairness of income distributions depends on the beliefs about the process that generated the inequality. Specifically, we examine how two crucial features of this process affect fairness views: (1) Procedural justice - equal treatment of all, (2) Agency - one's ability to determine his/her income. We do this in a lab experiment by varying the equality of opportunity (procedural justice), and one's ability to make choices, which consequently influence subjects’ ability to influence their income (agency). We then elicit ex-post redistribution decisions of the earnings as a function of these two elements. Our results suggest both agency and procedural justice matter for fairness. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Highlighting the importance of agency, we find that inequality resulting from risk is considered to be fair only when risk is chosen freely; (2) Highlighting the importance of procedural justice, we find that introducing inequality of opportunity significantly increases redistribution, however the share of subjects redistributing none remain close to the share of subjects redistributing fully revealing an underlying heterogeneity in the population about how fairness views should account for inequality of opportunity.

The third chapter is on morality. In this project, we study whether religious rituals act as an internal reminder for basic moral principles and thus affect moral judgments. To this end, we conducted two survey experiments in Turkey and Israel to specifically test the effect of Ramadan and Yom Kippur. The results from the Turkish sample how that Ramadan has a significant effect on moral judgments to some extent for those who report to believe in God. Those who believe in God judged the moral acceptability of ten out of sixty one actions significantly differently in Ramadan, whereas those who reported not to believe in God significantly changed their judgments only for one action in Ramadan. Our results extends the hypothesis established by lab experiments that religious reminders have a significant effect on morality, by testing it in the field in the natural environment of religious rituals.

This thesis is part of a broader collaborative research agenda with both colleagues and advisors. The programming, analyses, and writing, as well as any errors in this work, are my own.

The Harsh Reality of Pursuing Innovations: Emerging Market Perspectives

This short conference paper serves as a distillation of a keynote address delivered at the the Second National Conference on Management and Higher Education Trends & Strategies for Management & Administration hosted by Bangkok-based Stamford International University (Thailand) on November 1, 2014.Innovation is discussed as the heart of entrepreneurial processes occurring in today's capitalist economic systems, including transition economies like China and Vietnam, which underscores economic competitiveness of firms and economies. But the innovation effort and process also face dilemma of "entrepreneurial curse of innovation". Advantages and disadvantages are weighed for a more balanced view, especially in the context of outnumbering SMEs and given existence of pitfalls and traps along the innovation path of development. Toward the end, the value of the market is once again stressed amid the concern of subjective assumption and illusion about availability of market opportunities in the mind of innovators, which may contrast totally with the dismal outcome the actual market realities may show ex post.

Proyecto de desarrollo productivo de la Comunidad CIPAQUI : Departamento de Tumbaya, Provincia de Jujuy

La comunidad aborigen CIPAQUI está compuesta por 77 familias que habitan tres parajes del Departamento de Tumbaya (La Ciénaga, Patacal y Quisquiri) , en la Provincia de Jujuy. En su mayoría, poseen menos de 2 hectáreas que dedican a la producción agrícola-ganadera, estructurada alrededor del trabajo familiar. El bajo rendimiento de la producción, el estado sanitario de los montes frutales, la dificultad creciente para realizar las labores culturales (manual o a caballo, con arado de mancera o bien esperando un turno incierto de un tractor municipal para efectuar un servicio) , la falta de asistencia técnica permanente, la variabilidad del acceso al agua, la imposibilidad de acceder a mejoras productivas, y la carencia de nuevas oportunidades para la comercialización de sus productos, constituyen limitantes a las que la comunidad se enfrenta y que no puede superar sin la intervención del Estado. A principios del año 2012, la comunidad CIPAQUI entra el contacto con la Unidad para el Cambio Rural (UCAR) , dependiente del Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Pesca de la Nación (MAGyP) a través de la solicitud de apoyo de uno de sus integrantes, que se constituyó en promotor y aliado local para la formulación del proyecto. En principio, el promotor solicitó financiamiento para la compra de un tractor y sus complementos. El anteproyecto obtuvo la atención de áreas de la UCAR (las unidades Ambiental y Social y de Formulación de Proyectos) que trabajaron en conjunto, dando como resultado una propuesta de trabajo preliminar que se desarrolló entre los meses de julio y septiembre de 2012. No obstante, debido a dificultades relacionadas a la búsqueda de fuentes de financiamiento el proyecto se vio suspendido en sus avances. La propuesta actual es retomar el trabajo realizado y avanzar sobre el mismo. Para tal objetivo se aplicarán los conocimientos académicos brindados por la Especialización: se seguirá avanzando en la formulación con el criterio de proyecto público, lo cual no implicará abandonar los conceptos relacionados a las evaluaciones ex ante como la viabilidad económica y financiera. El objetivo general de la intervención -cuya extensión se estima en 32 meses- es `Mejorar el ingreso monetario de los productores de la comunidad CIPAQUI, promoviendo el desarrollo productivo de las actividades tradicionales agropecuarias`. Para ello, se trabajará en la ejecución de dos componentes: 1. Infraestructura, bienes y equipamiento productivo: 1.1 Mecanización de la producción: incorporará maquinaria y equipos; 1.2 Ampliación de la capacidad productiva: ampliará y reemplazará ejemplares degradados en los montes frutales con la incorporación de prácticas tecnológicas adecuadas; 1.3 Optimización de la infraestructura deriego: aumentará la eficiencia en el uso del agua y mejorará su distribución. 2. Asistencia técnica y capacitación: 2.1 Asistencia técnica: proveerá servicios de apoyo al productor; 2.2 Desarrollo comercial: transferirá información comercial; 2.3 Actividades complementarias: se evaluará la posibilidad de incorporar la oferta del servicio de turismo rural. El monto total de la iniciativa asciende a US $ 190.095. Se espera que al término de su ejecución el proyecto haya generado las condiciones para mejorar la cantidad y calidad de la producción, asegurado la provisión de agua durante todo el año y optimizado la comercialización y organización local.

Estudio del sistema de agronegocios del jabalí en Argentina : antecedentes y situación actual desde la perspectiva de los negocios agroalimentarios

La carne de jabalí es apreciada por sus características organolépticas y nutricionales. El principal consumidor es Europa (Italia, Alemania y Francia) , seguido por Japón. En Argentina, esta especie se adaptó en gran parte del territorio y a diferentes situaciones ecológicas. Asimismo, la crianza en cautiverio, aprovechamiento, elaboración, distribución, precios y características nutricionales no son de amplio conocimiento. El propósito de este trabajo es realizar un diagnóstico del sistema de agronegocios del jabalí en Argentina a fin de identificar los puntos fuertes y débiles y a partir de allí, proponer acciones para dar soluciones a las problemáticas actuales. Se utiliza como metodología el abordaje de la epistemología fenomenológica y el método EPESA, lo cual permite contar con abordaje amplio y sistémico del agronegocio bajo análisis. También, se utiliza el marco teórico de la nueva economía institucional, siguiendo el abordaje de Joskow y sus tres vías de aproximación. Si bien es una producción que posee ventajas comparativas (clima, suelo, extensión, alimento) que permitirían el desarrollo productivo y comercial del sistema, se observa que la informalidad limita la implementación de planteos productivos con mayores niveles de tecnología, registros y datos genéticos, lo que imposibilita la exportación. Por otra parte, existe un problema de reglamentaciones con respecto a la faena, dado que debe ser aprobada por FAUNA y por SENASA, teniendo distintos requerimientos y tiempos de carga y transporte. Esto genera incompatibilidades para la comercialización formal, incentivando a transacciones ilegales, baja transparencia, oportunismo ex ante y ex post de las transacciones y altos costos de transacción. Dado este ambiente de negocios descripto, las empresas bajo estudio en general trabajan con nichos de mercado y no tienen un panorama de ampliación productiva y comercial. Por tanto, la mejora del ambiente institucional es la primera acción a seguir a fin de vencer las limitaciones mencionadas.

Estudio del sistema de agronegocios del jabalí en Argentina : antecedentes y situación actual desde la perspectiva de los negocios agroalimentarios

La carne de jabalí es apreciada por sus características organolépticas y nutricionales. El principal consumidor es Europa (Italia, Alemania y Francia), seguido por Japón. En Argentina, esta especie se adaptó en gran parte del territorio y a diferentes situaciones ecológicas. Asimismo, la crianza en cautiverio, aprovechamiento, elaboración, distribución, precios y características nutricionales no son de amplio conocimiento. El propósito de este trabajo es realizar un diagnóstico del sistema de agronegocios del jabalí en Argentina a fin de identificar los puntos fuertes y débiles y a partir de allí, proponer acciones para dar soluciones a las problemáticas actuales. Se utiliza como metodología el abordaje de la epistemología fenomenológica y el método EPESA, lo cual permite contar con abordaje amplio y sistémico del agronegocio bajo análisis. También, se utiliza el marco teórico de la nueva economía institucional, siguiendo el abordaje de Joskow y sus tres vías de aproximación. Si bien es una producción que posee ventajas comparativas (clima, suelo, extensión, alimento)que permitirían el desarrollo productivo y comercial del sistema, se observa que la informalidad limita la implementación de planteos productivos con mayores niveles de tecnología, registros y datos genéticos, lo que imposibilita la exportación. Por otra parte, existe un problema de reglamentaciones con respecto a la faena, dado que debe ser aprobada por FAUNA y por SENASA, teniendo distintos requerimientos y tiempos de carga y transporte. Esto genera incompatibilidades para la comercialización formal, incentivando a transacciones ilegales, baja transparencia, oportunismo ex ante y ex post de las transacciones y altos costos de transacción. Dado este ambiente de negocios descripto, las empresas bajo estudio en general trabajan con nichos de mercado y no tienen un panorama de ampliación productiva y comercial. Por tanto, la mejora del ambiente institucional es la primera acción a seguir a fin de vencer las limitaciones mencionadas.

Are they adicctied to college students social networks?

The development of the Internet and in particular of social networks has supposedly given a new view to the different aspects that surround human behavior. It includes those associated with addictions, but specifically the ones that have to do with technologies. Following a correlational descriptive design we present the results of a study, which involved university students from Social and Legal Sciences as participants, about their addiction to the Internet and in particular to social networks. The sample was conformed of 373 participants from the cities of Granada, Sevilla, Málaga, and Córdoba. To gather the data a questionnaire that was design by Young was translated to Spanish. The main research objective was to determine if university students could be considered social network addicts. The most prominent result was that the participants don’t consider themselves to be addicted to the Internet or to social networks; in particular women reflected a major distance from the social networks. It’s important to know that the results differ from those found in the literature review, which opens the question, are the participants in a phase of denial towards the addiction?

Coordination, Efficiency and Two-Sided Cheap Talk

We consider the Battle of the Sexes game with incomplete information and allow two-sided cheap talk before the game is played. We characterise the set of fully revealing symmetric cheap talk equilibria. The best fully revealing symmetric cheap talk equilibrium, when exists, has a desirable characteristic. When the players' types are different, it fully coordinates on the ex-post efficient pure Nash equilibrium. We also analyse the mediated communication equilibria of the game. We find the range of the prior for which this desirable equilibrium exists under unmediated and mediated communication processes.

Do Foreign Greenfields Outperform Foreign Acquisitions or Vice Versa? An Institutional Perspective.

Prior studies of the comparative performance of greenfields and acquisitions have advanced competing arguments, with some arguing that greenfields should outperform acquisitions because acquisitions are costlier to integrate, and others that acquisitions should outperform greenfields because greenfields suffer from a liability of newness. Moreover, while the costs of integration and the liability of newness are at their greatest during a subsidiary's first years, prior studies have tested their competing arguments on samples containing older subsidiaries. We extend these prior studies by (1) developing an institutional theory-based framework that simultaneously considers the costs of integration and the liability of newness, (2) recognizing that both types of costs vary with the level of subsidiary integration, and (3) focusing on the stage of their life during which subsidiaries predominantly incur these costs. To measure subsidiary performance, we ask managers of Dutch multinationals how their ex ante performance expectations compare to the subsidiary's ex post performance during its first two years. Analysing a sample of 191 foreign subsidiaries and controlling for entry mode self-selection and other factors, we find that acquisitions outperform greenfields at low and intermediate levels of subsidiary integration, but that greenfields outperform acquisitions at higher integration levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Flexibility in a Stackelberg leadership with differentiated goods

We study the effects of product differentiation in a Stackelberg model with demand uncertainty for the first mover. We do an ex-ante and ex-post analysis of the profits of the leader and of the follower firms in terms of product differentiation and of the demand uncertainty. We show that even with small uncertainty about the demand, the follower firm can achieve greater profits than the leader, if their products are sufficiently differentiated. We also compute the probability of the second firm having higher profit than the leading firm, subsequently showing the advantages and disadvantages of being either the leader or the follower firm.

Bertrand oligopoly when rivals' costs are unknown

We study a Bertrand oligopoly model with incomplete information about rivals' costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium of this game, the ex-ante expected profit and the ex-post profit of each firm. We see that, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Bertrand and Cournot oligopolies when rivals' costs are unknown

We study Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly models with incomplete information about rivals’ costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian- Nash equilibrium of both games, the ex-ante expected profits and the ex-post profits of each firm. We see that, in the price competition, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Disposição para pagar uma intervenção para melhorar o controlo da hipertensão em hipertensos não controlados : um estudo-piloto

RESUMO - A valorização económica de intervenções preventivas pode contribuir para melhorar a afetação de recursos em saúde. A hipertensão, primeira causa de morte em Portugal, é um grave problema de saúde Pública e o principal fator de risco para a ocorrência de Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC). O presente estudo é um primeiro ensaio para quantificar a disposição para pagar (DPP) da sociedade por uma intervenção de promoção da adesão à terapêutica em hipertensos não controlados. Foi aplicado um questionário presencial a uma amostra de conveniência (n=93), numa perspetiva ex post, sendo o questionário constituído por dois formatos de questões e dois cenários de diferentes reduções de pressão arterial sistólica (cenário 1 corresponde à redução de 10 mmHg e cenário 2 à redução de 20 mmHg). O risco de AVC a 10 anos foi adaptado à idade e ao sexo de cada participante. Relativamente ao cenário 1, a DPP média foi de €25,87 e €33,93, dependendo do formato da questão (resposta aberta ou bidding game, respetivamente). Na questão de resposta aberta, 78,3% dos participantes estavam dispostos para pagar pela intervenção, no bidding game 75,6% dos participantes referiram estar dispostos para pagar pelo menos €10. No cenário 2, a DPP média foi de €26,81 e €34,79, dependendo se o formato da questão era do tipo resposta aberta ou bidding game, respetivamente. Na questão de resposta aberta, 84,3% dos participantes estavam dispostos para pagar pela intervenção, no bidding game 76,1% dos participantes referiram estar dispostos para pagar pelo menos €10. Ao contrário do bidding game, nas questões de resposta aberta verificou-se 25,8% e 24,7% de respostas “não sei”, para o cenário 1 e cenário 2 respetivamente, diretamente relacionada com a baixa escolaridade dos participantes (p=0,004). Também se verificou uma maior tendência para respostas às questões de bidding game com valores mais elevados, comparativamente às questões de resposta aberta. Identificaram-se duas variáveis explicativas para os valores DPP: o rendimento e a ocupação principal. A sensibilidade dos respondentes à magnitude dos ganhos em saúde foi verificada internamente em cada questionário (os participantes referiram DPP mais elevadas no cenário 2 relativamente ao cenário 1), no entanto, os participantes que beneficiariam mais da intervenção não demonstraram DPP superiores aos restantes. Para confirmar os efeitos identificados neste estudo e extrapolá-los para a população portuguesa é necessário realizar um estudo representativo de população portuguesa.

Leniency programs, antitrust enforcement and multimarket contact : three essays in industrial organization

The Layout of My Thesis This thesis contains three chapters in Industrial Organization that build on the work outlined above. The first two chapters combine leniency programs with multimarket contact and provide a thorough analysis of the potential effects of Amnesty Plus and Penalty Plus. The third chapter puts the whole discussion on leniency programs into perspective by examining other enforcement tools available to an antitrust authority. The main argument in that last chapter is that a specific instrument can only be as effective as the policy in which it is embedded. It is therefore important for an antitrust authority to know how it best accompanies the introduction or modification of a policy instrument that helps deterrence. INTRODUCTION Chapter 1 examines the efféct of Amnesty Plus and Penalty Plus on the incentives of firms to report cartel activities. The main question is whether the inclusion of these policies in a leniency program undermine the effectiveness of the latter by discouraging the firms to apply for amnesty. The model is static and focus on the ex post incentives of firms to desist from collusion. The results suggest that, because Amnesty Plus and Penalty Plus encourage the reporting of a second cartel after a first detection, a firm, anticipating this, may be reluctant to seek leniency and to report in the first place. However, the effect may also go in the opposite direction, and Amnesty Plus and Penalty Plus may encourage the simultaneous reporting of two cartels. Chapter 2 takes this idea further to the stage of cartel formation. This chapter provides a complete characterization of the potential anticompetitive and procompetitive effects of Amnesty Plus in a infinitely repeated game framework when the firms use their multimarket contact to harshen punishment. I suggest a clear-cut policy rule that prevents potential adverse effects and thereby show that, if policy makers follow this rule, a leniency program with Amnesty Plus performs better than one without. Chapter 3 characterizes the socially optimal enforcement effort of an antitrust authority and shows how this effort changes with the introduction or modification of specific policy instruments. The intuition is that the policy instrument may increase the marginal benefit of conducting investigations. If this effect is strong enough, a more rigorous detection policy becomes socially desirable.