808 resultados para Empirical Predictions


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This paper explores the feasibility of adopting an integrated economic approach to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on their farming lands. Responses to this approach were sought from a sample of farmers in the areas affected by human elephant conflict in the northwestern province of Sri Lanka. Results from a contingent valuation survey of their willingness to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants are also reported. Two separate logit regression analyses were undertaken to examine the factors that influence the farmers’ responses for the payment principle question and their opinions on the integrated economic approach. Although found that the majority of the respondents expressed their willingness to pay for the proposed scheme and supported for the implementation of the integrated approach, we have insufficient data yet to determine if their support and financial contribution would be sufficient to set up this programme and also to predict its economic viability. Nevertheless, the overall finding of this study provides an improved economic assessment of the farmers’ attitudes towards the wild elephant in Sri Lanka. At the same time the study shows that, contrary to commonly held assumptions, farmers in this developing country, do support wildlife conservation.

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Recent reviews of the desistance literature have advocated studying desistance as a process, yet current empirical methods continue to measure desistance as a discrete state. In this paper, we propose a framework for empirical research that recognizes desistance as a developmental process. This approach focuses on changes in the offending rare rather than on offending itself We describe a statistical model to implement this approach and provide an empirical example. We conclude with several suggestions for future research endeavors that arise from our conceptualization of desistance.

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Despite apparent overwhelming benefits, implementation of the Household Responsibility System (HRS) in China contained a number of flaws. The Two-Farmland System (TFS), which originated in Pingdu City in Shandong Province, sought to address the twin problems of land fragmentation and economies of size. A stochastic frontier production function analysis that isolates the impacts of land allocation reforms suggests that the TFS increased efficiency by around 7%. This article highlights the need for empirical analysis to assess objectively the merits or otherwise of particular reforms. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

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We show that stochastic electrodynamics and quantum mechanics give quantitatively different predictions for the quantum nondemolition (QND) correlations in travelling wave second harmonic generation. Using phase space methods and stochastic integration, we calculate correlations in both the positive-P and truncated Wigner representations, the latter being equivalent to the semi-classical theory of stochastic electrodynamics. We show that the semiclassical results are different in the regions where the system performs best in relation to the QND criteria, and that they significantly overestimate the performance in these regions. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

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Wet agglomeration processes have traditionally been considered an empirical art, with great difficulties in predicting and explaining observed behaviour. Industry has faced a range of problems including large recycle ratios, poor product quality control, surging and even the total failure of scale up from laboratory to full scale production. However, in recent years there has been a rapid advancement in our understanding of the fundamental processes that control granulation behaviour and product properties. This review critically evaluates the current understanding of the three key areas of wet granulation processes: wetting and nucleation, consolidation and growth, and breakage and attrition. Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that there now exist theoretical models which predict or explain the majority of experimentally observed behaviour. Provided that the correct material properties and operating parameters are known, it is now possible to make useful predictions about how a material will granulate. The challenge that now faces us is to transfer these theoretical developments into industrial practice. Standard, reliable methods need to be developed to measure the formulation properties that control granulation behaviour, such as contact angle and dynamic yield strength. There also needs to be a better understanding of the flow patterns, mixing behaviour and impact velocities in different types of granulation equipment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Combinatorial optimization problems share an interesting property with spin glass systems in that their state spaces can exhibit ultrametric structure. We use sampling methods to analyse the error surfaces of feedforward multi-layer perceptron neural networks learning encoder problems. The third order statistics of these points of attraction are examined and found to be arranged in a highly ultrametric way. This is a unique result for a finite, continuous parameter space. The implications of this result are discussed.

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This paper outlines a major empirical study that is being undertaken by an interdisciplinary team into genetic discrimination in Australia. The 3-year study will examine the nature and extent of this newly emerging phenomenon across the perspectives of consumers, third parties, and the legal system and will analyze its social and legal dimensions. Although the project is confined to Australia, it is expected that the outcomes will have significance for the wider research community as this is the most substantial study of its kind to be undertaken to date into genetic discrimination.