The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

The impact of companies’ demergers to the stock prices: a Finnish perspective

Tässä kauppatieteiden kandidaatintyössä tutkittiin millaisia vaikutuksia julkisesti noteerattujen yhtiöiden osakekurssissa tapahtuu, kun jo valmiiksi Helsingin pörssissä listattu yritys jakautuu kahdeksi uudeksi pörssiyritykseksi. Molempien yrityksien osakkeita voi tämän jakautumisen jälkeen vapaasti ostaa tai myydä. Aikaisempi tutkimus on pääsääntöisesti keskittynyt Yhdysvaltojen markkinoille ja näiden tutkimusten tuloksien perusteella on monessa tapauksessa havautta, että on mahdollista saavuttaa ylinormaaleja tuottoja, kun pörssiyritys jakautuu kahdeksi uudeksi pörssiyritykseksi. Tässä analyysissä jakautumiset ajallisesti tapahtuivat vuosien 1994 ja 2013 välisenä aikana Suomessa ja näitä jakautumia oli yhteensä 16 kappaletta. Tutkimuksessa on hyödynnetty tilastollisten menetelmien analyysiä sekä CAP-mallia, jotta voitaisiin löytää vastauksia seuraaviin kysymyksiin: Vaikuttaako pörssiyrityksen jakautuminen kahdeksi pörssiyritykseksi alkuperäisen yhtiön ja uuden yhtiön osakekursseihin? Onko vaikutus positiivinen, negatiivinen vai onko jakautumisella mitään havaittavaa vaikutusta? Tämän tutkimuksen tulokset antavat uutta tietoa tutkijoille, analyytikoille, opettajille, opiskelijoille, yrityksille ja yritysten johdolle sekä erityisesti sijoittajille. Tulosten mukaan on nähtävissä monia vaikutuksia osakekursseissa, kun pörssiyritys jakautuu. Vaikutus näyttää kuitenkin olevan jossain määrin yritys-riippuvainen. Kun sijoitetaan oikeaan aikaan, on monia jakautuvia yrityksiä, jotka antavat hyvän tuoton keskimäärin, mutta kuten tavallista ja tyypillistä osakemarkkinoille, on myös jakautuvia yhtiöitä, jotka antavat negatiivisia tuottoja tai tuotot ovat nollassa

Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

Speculative bubbles and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced source of risk that is separate from the standard market risk, size and value factors. We demonstrate that much of the common variation in stock returns that can be attributable to market risk is due to the co-movement of bubbles rather than being driven by fundamentals.

Toward convergence? The brazilian stock market concentration and the role of private equity in its diversification

Using quantitative data obtained from public available database, this paper discusses the difference between of the Brazilian GDP and the Brazilian Stock Exchange industry breakdown. I examined if, and to what extent, the industry breakdowns are similar. First, I found out that the Stock Exchange industry breakdown is overwhelming different from the GDP, which may present a potential problem to asset allocation and portfolio diversification in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a convergence between the GDP and the Stock Exchange in the last 9 years. Third, it became clear that the Privatizations in the late 90’s and IPO market from 2004 to 2008 change the dynamics of the Brazilian Stock Exchange. And fourth, I identified that Private Equity and Venture Capital industry may play an important role on the portfolio diversification in Brazil.

Perfil do crédito à pessoa jurídica no Brasil entre 1994 e 2007

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Pricing and spread components at the Lima Stock Exchange

This paper analyses three aspects of the share market operated by the Lima Stock Exchange: (i) the short-term relationship between the pricing, direction and volume of order flows; (ii) the components of the spread and the equilibrium point of the limit order book per share, and (iii) the pricing, order direction and trading volume dynamic resulting from shocks in the same variables when lagged. The econometric results for intraday data from 2012 show that the short-run dynamic of the most and least liquid shares in the General Index of the Lima Stock Exchange is explained by the direction of order flow, whose price impact is temporary in both cases.

A note on execution costs for stock index futures: Information versus liquidity effects

This paper examines execution costs and the impact of trade size for stock index futures using price-volume transaction data from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. Consistent with Subrahmanyam [Rev. Financ. Stud. 4 (1991) 11] we find that effective half spreads in the stock index futures market are small compared to stock markets, and that trades in stock index futures have only a small permanent price impact. This result is important as it helps to better understand the success of equity index products such as index futures and Exchange Traded Funds. We also find that there is no asymmetry in the post-trade price reaction between purchases and sales for stock index futures across various trade sizes. This result is consistent with the conjecture in Chan and Lakonishok [J. Financ. Econ. 33 (1993) 173] that the asymmetry surrounding block trades in stock markets is due to the high cost of short selling and the general reluctance of traders to short sell on stock markets. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introducing international accounting standards to an emerging capital market: relative familiarity and language effect in Egypt

The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of relative familiarity and language accessibility on the International Accounting Standards (IASs) disclosures when IASs are first introduced in an emerging capital market. The study focuses on the annual reports of listed non-financial companies in Egypt when IASs were first introduced. The method used applies a disclosure index measurement to a sample of listed company annual reports and evaluates relative compliance with IASs in relation to corporate characteristics. The results show that for relatively less familiar requirements of IASs, the extent of compliance is related to the type of audit firm used and to the presence of a specific statement of compliance with IASs. A lower degree of compliance with less familiar IASs disclosure is observed consistently across a range of company characteristics. Consideration of agency theory and capital need theory would lead to prior expectation of a distinction in disclosure practices between different categories of companies. The results were, therefore, counterintuitive to expectations where the regulations were unfamiliar or not available in the native language, indicating that new variables have to be considered and additional theoretical explanations have to be found in future disclosure studies on emerging capital markets.

Concentration of the UK stock market

During 1999 and 2000 a large number of articles appeared in the financial press which argued that the concentration of the FTSE 100 had increased. Many of these reports suggested that stock market volatility in the UK had risen, because the concentration of its stock markets had increased. This study undertakes a comprehensive measurement of stock market concentration using the FTSE 100 index. We find that during 1999, 2000 and 2001 stock market concentration was noticeably higher than at any other time since the index was introduced. When we measure the volatility of the FTSE 100 index we do not find an association between concentration and its volatility. When we examine the variances and covariance’s of the FTSE 100 constituents we find that security volatility appears to be positively related to concentration changes but concentration and the size of security covariances appear to be negatively related. We simulate the variance of four versions of the FTSE 100 index; in each version of the index the weighting structure reflects either an equally weighted index, or one with levels of low, intermediate or high concentration. We find that moving from low to high concentration has very little impact on the volatility of the index. To complete the study we estimate the minimum variance portfolio for the FTSE 100, we then compare concentration levels of this index to those formed on the basis of market weighting. We find that realised FTSE index weightings are higher than for the minimum variance index.

Introducing International Accounting Standards to an emerging capital market:Relative familiarity and language effect in Egypt

The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of relative familiarity and language accessibility on the International Accounting Standards (IASs) disclosures when IASs are first introduced in an emerging capital market. The study focuses on the annual reports of listed non-financial companies in Egypt when IASs were first introduced. The method used applies a disclosure index measurement to a sample of listed company annual reports and evaluates relative compliance with IASs in relation to corporate characteristics. The results show that for relatively less familiar requirements of IASs, the extent of compliance is related to the type of audit firm used and to the presence of a specific statement of compliance with IASs. A lower degree of compliance with less familiar IASs disclosure is observed consistently across a range of company characteristics. Consideration of agency theory and capital need theory would lead to prior expectation of a distinction in disclosure practices between different categories of companies. The results were, therefore, counterintuitive to expectations where the regulations were unfamiliar or not available in the native language, indicating that new variables have to be considered and additional theoretical explanations have to be found in future disclosure studies on emerging capital markets. © 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Price discovery for Chinese shares cross-listed in multiple markets

In this article we study the relationship between security returns cross-listed on the A share market of China and the H share market at the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). Most of these securities are also cross-listed on other markets. An important feature of this article is that we focus on the multilateral relationships between all cross-listed markets rather than concentrating only on the bi-lateral relationship between A and Hong Kong H shares. Using the impulse response functions and the variance decompositions from a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) process we show that the returns to the A share market are almost exclusively determined by domestic factors. In contrast, we find that the H share market is influenced by both the A share market within China and foreign stock markets elsewhere in the world. Impulse response functions suggest that innovations to the A share market and the Hong Kong H share market are partly transmitted to each other and to stock markets outside China. We show that liquidity has an important role to play in determining the impact that the home market has on cross-listed variance decompositions. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis

We report an empirical analysis of long-range dependence in the returns of eight stock market indices, using the Rescaled Range Analysis (RRA) to estimate the Hurst exponent. Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations are used to construct critical values for the null hypothesis of no long-range dependence. The issue of disentangling short-range and long-range dependence is examined. Pre-filtering by fitting a (short-range) autoregressive model eliminates part of the long-range dependence when the latter is present, while failure to pre-filter leaves open the possibility of conflating short-range and long-range dependence. There is a strong evidence of long-range dependence for the small central European Czech stock market index PX-glob, and a weaker evidence for two smaller western European stock market indices, MSE (Spain) and SWX (Switzerland). There is little or no evidence of long-range dependence for the other five indices, including those with the largest capitalizations among those considered, DJIA (US) and FTSE350 (UK). These results are generally consistent with prior expectations concerning the relative efficiency of the stock markets examined. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.