Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation

Prediction intervals (PIs) are a promising tool for quantification of uncertainties associated with point forecasts of wind power. However, construction of PIs using parametric methods is questionable, as forecast errors do not follow a standard distribution. This paper proposes a nonparametric method for construction of reliable PIs for neural network (NN) forecasts. A lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is adapted for construction of PIs for wind power generation. A new framework is proposed for synthesizing PIs generated using an ensemble of NN models in the LUBE method. This is done to guard against NN performance instability in generating reliable and informative PIs. A validation set is applied for short listing NNs based on the quality of PIs. Then, PIs constructed using filtered NNs are aggregated to obtain combined PIs. Performance of the proposed method is examined using data sets taken from two wind farms in Australia. Simulation results indicate that the quality of combined PIs is significantly superior to the quality of PIs constructed using NN models ranked and filtered by the validation set.

Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Load compensation in four-wire electrical power systems

This work describes a methodology for power factor control and correction of the unbalanced currents in four-wire electric circuits. The methodology is based on the insertion of two compensation networks, one wye-grounded neutral and another in delta, in parallel to the load. The mathematical development has been proposed in previous work [3]. In this paper, however, the methodology was adapted to accept different power factors for the system to be compensated. on the other hand, the determination of the compensation susceptances is based on the instantaneous values of the load currents. The results are obtained using the MatLab - Simulink environment.

Methodology for load compensation in four-wire electrical power systems based on instantaneous sampling

This work describes a methodology for power factor control and correction of the unbalanced currents in four-wire electric circuits. The methodology is based on the insertion of two compensation networks, one wye-grounded neutral and other in delta, in parallel to the load. The mathematical development has been proposed in previous work [3]. In this paper, however, the determination of the compensation susceptances is based on the instantaneous values of load currents. The results are obtained using the MatLab-Simulink enviroment

Transient stability analysis of electrical power systems using a neural network based on fuzzy ARTMAP

This work presents a methodology to analyze transient stability for electric energy systems using artificial neural networks based on fuzzy ARTMAP architecture. This architecture seeks exploring similarity with computational concepts on fuzzy set theory and ART (Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural network. The ART architectures show plasticity and stability characteristics, which are essential qualities to provide the training and to execute the analysis. Therefore, it is used a very fast training, when compared to the conventional backpropagation algorithm formulation. Consequently, the analysis becomes more competitive, compared to the principal methods found in the specialized literature. Results considering a system composed of 45 buses, 72 transmission lines and 10 synchronous machines are presented. © 2003 IEEE.

Discrete-time sliding mode control of input-delay systems applied on a power generation system

This paper presents two discrete sliding mode control (SMC) design. The first one is a discrete-time SMC design that doesn't take into account the time-delay. The second one is a discrete-time SMC design, which takes in consideration the time-delay. The proposed techniques aim at the accomplishment simplicity and robustness for an uncertainty class. Simulations results are shown and the effectiveness of the used techniques is analyzed. © 2006 IEEE.

Probabilistic analysis of the distributed power generation in weakly meshed distribution systems

This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly meshed distribution systems considering uncertainty in load demand. In order to achieve high computational efficiency this approach uses both an efficient method for probabilistic analysis and a radial power flow. The probabilistic approach used is the well-known Two-Point Estimate Method. Meanwhile, the compensation-based radial power flow is used in order to extract benefits from the topological characteristics of the distribution systems. The generation model proposed allows modeling either PQ or PV bus on the connection point between the network and the distributed generator. In addition allows control of the generator operating conditions, such as the field current and the power delivery at terminals. Results on test with IEEE 37 bus system is given to illustrate the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach. A Monte Carlo Simulations method is used to validate the results. © 2011 IEEE.

Electrical Power Distribution System modeling with VHDL-AMS for the construction of a Real-Time Digital Simulator using FPGAS devices

This paper presents a distribution feeder simulation using VHDL-AMS, considering the standard IEEE 13 node test feeder admitted as an example. In an electronic spreadsheet all calculations are performed in order to develop the modeling in VHDL-AMS. The simulation results are compared in relation to the results from the well knowing MatLab/Simulink environment, in order to verify the feasibility of the VHDL-AMS modeling for a standard electrical distribution feeder, using the software SystemVision™. This paper aims to present the first major developments for a future Real-Time Digital Simulator applied to Electrical Power Distribution Systems. © 2012 IEEE.

Thermodynamic analysis and comparison of downdraft gasifiers integrated with gas turbine, spark and compression ignition engines for distributed power generation

The objective of the present article is to assess and compare the performance of electricity generation systems integrated with downdraft biomass gasifiers for distributed power generation. A model for estimating the electric power generation of internal combustion engines and gas turbines powered by syngas was developed. First, the model determines the syngas composition and the lower heating value; and second, these data are used to evaluate power generation in Otto, Diesel, and Brayton cycles. Four synthesis gas compositions were tested for gasification with: air; pure oxygen; 60% oxygen with 40% steam; and 60% air with 40% steam. The results show a maximum power ratio of 0.567 kWh/Nm(3) for the gas turbine system, 0.647 kWh/Nm(3) for the compression ignition engine, and 0.775 kWh/Nm(3) for the spark-ignition engine while running on synthesis gas which was produced using pure oxygen as gasification agent. When these three systems run on synthesis gas produced using atmospheric air as gasification agent, the maximum power ratios were 0.274 kWh/Nm(3) for the gas turbine system, 0.302 kWh/Nm(3) for CIE, and 0.282 kWh/Nm(3) for SIE. The relationship between power output and synthesis gas flow variations is presented as is the dependence of efficiency on compression ratios. Since the maximum attainable power ratio of CIE is higher than that of SIE for gasification with air, more research should be performed on utilization of synthesis gas in CIE. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selecting an electrical power source at the scoping level for a mining project

The electrical power source is a critical component of the scoping level study as the source affects both the project economics and timeline. This paper proposes a systematic approach to selecting an electrical power source for a new mine. Orvana Minerals Copperwood project is used as a case study. The Copperwood results show that the proposed scoping level approach is consistent with the subsequent much more detailed feasibility study.