Surface velocity fields, digital elevation models, ice front positions and grounding line derived from remote sensing data at Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system, Antarctic Peninsula (1992-2014)

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest changing regions on Earth. The disintegration of the Larsen-A Ice Shelf in 1995 caused tributary glaciers to adjust by speeding up, surface lowering, and overall increased ice-mass discharge. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of these changes at the Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system by analyzing dense time series from various spaceborne and airborne Earth observation missions. Precollapse ice shelf conditions and subsequent adjustments through 2014 were covered. Our results show a response of the glacier system some months after the breakup, reaching maximum surface velocities at the glacier front of up to 8.8 m/d in 1999 and a subsequent decrease to ~1.5 m/d in 2014. Using a dense time series of interferometrically derived TanDEM-X digital elevation models and photogrammetric data, an exponential function was fitted for the decrease in surface elevation. Elevation changes in areas below 1000 m a.s.l. amounted to at least 130±15 m130±15 m between 1995 and 2014, with change rates of ~3.15 m/a between 2003 and 2008. Current change rates (2010-2014) are in the range of 1.7 m/a. Mass imbalances were computed with different scenarios of boundary conditions. The most plausible results amount to -40.7±3.9 Gt-40.7±3.9 Gt. The contribution to sea level rise was estimated to be 18.8±1.8 Gt18.8±1.8 Gt, corresponding to a 0.052±0.005 mm0.052±0.005 mm sea level equivalent, for the period 1995-2014. Our analysis and scenario considerations revealed that major uncertainties still exist due to insufficiently accurate ice-thickness information. The second largest uncertainty in the computations was the glacier surface mass balance, which is still poorly known. Our time series analysis facilitates an improved comparison with GRACE data and as input to modeling of glacio-isostatic uplift in this region. The study contributed to a better understanding of how glacier systems adjust to ice shelf disintegration.

Widespread range expansions shape latitudinal variation in insect thermal limits

I thank the authors of previous studies on global variation in insect thermal tolerances who have generously provided open access use of their data sets.

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi-factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis subperiod. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers’ risk aversion.

Series representations of the remainders in the expansions for certain functions with applications

We present a summary of the series representations of the remainders in the expansions in ascending powers of t of 2/(et+1)2/(et+1) , sech t and coth t and establish simple bounds for these remainders when t>0t>0 . Several applications of these expansions are given which enable us to deduce some inequalities and completely monotonic functions associated with the ratio of two gamma functions. In addition, we derive a (presumably new) quadratic recurrence relation for the Bernoulli numbers Bn.

Frequency of the different mutations causing spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA1, SCA2, MJD/SCA3 and DRPLA) in a large group of Brazilian patients

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 (SCA1), spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 (SCA2) and Machado-Joseph disease or spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 (MJD/SCA3) are three distinctive forms of autosomal dominant spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) caused by expansions of an unstable CAG repeat localized in the coding region of the causative genes. Another related disease, dentatorubropallidoluysian atrophy (DRPLA) is also caused by an unstable triplet repeat and can present as SCA in late onset patients. We investigated the frequency of the SCA1, SCA2, MJD/SCA3 and DRPLA mutations in 328 Brazilian patients with SCA, belonging to 90 unrelated families with various patterns of inheritance and originating in different geographic regions of Brazil. We found mutations in 35 families (39%), 32 of them with a clear autosomal dominant inheritance. The frequency of the SCA1 mutation was 3% of all patients; and 6 % in the dominantly inherited SCAs. We identified the SCA2 mutation in 6% of all families and in 9% of the families with autosomal dominant inheritance. The MJD/SCA3 mutation was detected in 30 % of all patients; and in the 44% of the dominantly inherited cases. We found no DRPLA mutation. In addition, we observed variability in the frequency of the different mutations according to geographic origin of the patients, which is probably related to the distinct colonization of different parts of Brazil. These results suggest that SCA may be occasionally caused by the SCA1 and SCA2 mutations in the Brazilian population, and that the MJD/SCA3 mutation is the most common cause of dominantly inherited SCA in Brazil.

Dependence of the crossover exponent with the diffusion rate in the generalized contact process model

We study how the crossover exponent, phi, between the directed percolation (DP) and compact directed percolation (CDP) behaves as a function of the diffusion rate in a model that generalizes the contact process. Our conclusions are based in results pointed by perturbative series expansions and numerical simulations, and are consistent with a value phi = 2 for finite diffusion rates and phi = 1 in the limit of infinite diffusion rate.

Short report: historical analysis of a near disaster: Anopheles gambiae in Brazil

Attributed to human-mediated dispersal, a species of the Anopheles gambiae complex invaded northeastern Brazil in 1930. This event is considered unique among the intercontinental introductions of disease vectors and the most serious one: "Few threats to the future health of the Americas have equalled that inherent in the invasion of Brazil, in 1930, by Anopheles gambiae." Because it was only in the 1960s that An. gambiae was recognized as a species complex now including seven species, the precise species identity of the Brazilian invader remains a mystery. Here we used historical DNA analysis of museum specimens, collected at the time of invasion from Brazil, and aimed at the identification of the Brazilian invader. Our results identify the arid-adapted Anopheles arabiensis as being the actual invading species. Establishing the identity of the species, in addition to being of intrinsic historical interest, can inform future threats of this sort especially in a changing environment. Furthermore, these results highlight the potential danger of human-mediated range expansions of insect disease vectors and the importance of museum collections in retrieving historical information

Phylogeography of the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus): Marked population structure, Neotropical Pleistocene vicariance and incongruence between nuclear and mtDNA markers

Background: The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus is an excellent model organism for studying ecological vicariance in the Neotropics due to its broad geographic range and its preference for forested areas as roosting sites. With the objective of testing for Pleistocene ecological vicariance, we sequenced a mitocondrial DNA (mtDNA) marker and two nuclear markers (RAG2 and DRB) to try to understand how Pleistocene glaciations affected the distribution of intraspecific lineages in this bat. Results: Five reciprocally monophyletic clades were evident in the mitochondrial gene tree, and in most cases with high bootstrap support: Central America (CA), Amazon and Cerrado (AMC), Pantanal (PAN), Northern Atlantic Forest (NAF) and Southern Atlantic Forest (SAF). The Atlantic forest clades formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, creating an east/west division for this species in South America. On the one hand, all coalescent and non-coalescent estimates point to a Pleistocene time of divergence between the clades. On the other hand, the nuclear markers showed extensive sharing of haplotypes between distant localities, a result compatible with male-biased gene flow. In order to test if the disparity between the mitochondrial and nuclear markers was due to the difference in mutation rate and effective size, we performed a coalescent simulation to examine the feasibility that, given the time of separation between the observed lineages, even with a gene flow rate close to zero, there would not be reciprocal monophyly for a neutral nuclear marker. We used the observed values of theta and an estimated mutation rate for the nuclear marker gene to perform 1000 iterations of the simulation. The results of this simulation were inconclusive: the number of iterations with and without reciprocal monophyly of one or more clades are similar. Conclusions: We therefore conclude that the pattern exhibited by the common vampire bat, with marked geographical structure for a mitochondrial marker and no phylogeographic structure for nuclear markers is compatible with a historical scenario of complete isolation of refuge-like populations during the Pleistocene. The results on demographic history on this species is compatible with the Carnaval-Moritz model of Pleistocene vicariance, with demographic expansions in the southern Atlantic forest.

Industrial apiculture in the Jordan valley during Biblical times with Anatolian honeybees

Although texts and wall paintings suggest that bees were kept in the Ancient Near East for the production of precious wax and honey, archaeological evidence for beekeeping has never been found. The Biblical term ""honey"" commonly was interpreted as the sweet product of fruits, such as dates and figs. The recent discovery of unfired clay cylinders similar to traditional hives still used in the Near East at the site of Tel Rehov in the Jordan valley in northern Israel suggests that a large-scale apiary was located inside the town, dating to the 10th-early 9th centuries B.C.E. This paper reports the discovery of remains of honeybee workers, drones, pupae, and larvae inside these hives. The exceptional preservation of these remains provides unequivocal identification of the clay cylinders as the most ancient beehives yet found. Morphometric analyses indicate that these bees differ from the local subspecies Apis mellifera syriaca and from all subspecies other than A. m. anatoliaca, which presently resides in parts of Turkey. This finding suggests either that the Western honeybee subspecies distribution has undergone rapid change during the last 3,000 years or that the ancient inhabitants of Tel Rehov imported bees superior to the local bees in terms of their milder temper and improved honey yield.

Land planarians (Platyhelminthes) as a model organism for fine-scale phylogeographic studies: understanding patterns of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

Immunogenicity of a Whole-Cell Pertussis Vaccine with Low Lipopolysaccharide Content in Infants

The lack of a clear correlation between the levels of antibody to pertussis antigens and protection against disease lends credence to the possibility that cell-mediated immunity provides primary protection against disease. This phase I comparative trial had the aim of comparing the in vitro cellular immune response and anti-pertussis toxin (anti-PT) immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers induced by a cellular pertussis vaccine with low lipopolysaccharide (LPS) content (wP(low) vaccine) with those induced by the conventional whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine. A total of 234 infants were vaccinated at 2, 4, and 6 months with the conventional wP vaccine or the wP(low) vaccine. Proliferation of CD3(+) T cells was evaluated by flow cytometry after 6 days of peripheral blood mononuclear cell culture with stimulation with heat-killed Bordetella pertussis or phytohemagglutinin (PHA). CD3(+), CD4(+), CD8(+), and T-cell receptor gamma delta-positive (gamma delta(+)) cells were identified in the gate of blast lymphocytes. Gamma interferon, tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-4 (IL-4), and IL-10 levels in super-natants and serum anti-PT IgG levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The net percentage of CD3(+) blasts in cultures with B. pertussis in the group vaccinated with wP was higher than that in the group vaccinated with the wP(low) vaccine (medians of 6.2% for the wP vaccine and 3.9% for the wP(low) vaccine; P = 0.029). The frequencies of proliferating CD4(+), CD8(+), and gamma delta(+) cells, cytokine concentrations in supernatants, and the geometric mean titers of anti-PT IgG were similar for the two vaccination groups. There was a significant difference between the T-cell subpopulations for B. pertussis and PHA cultures, with a higher percentage of gamma delta(+) cells in the B. pertussis cultures (P < 0.001). The overall data did suggest that wP vaccination resulted in modestly better specific CD3(+) cell proliferation, and gamma delta(+) cell expansions were similar with the two vaccines.

Temperature dependence of the magnetic susceptibility for triangular-lattice antiferromagnets with spatially anisotropic exchange constants

We present the temperature dependence of the uniform susceptibility of spin-half quantum antiferromagnets on spatially anisotropic triangular lattices, using high-temperature series expansions. We consider a model with two exchange constants J1 and J2 on a lattice that interpolates between the limits of a square lattice (J1=0), a triangular lattice (J2=J1), and decoupled linear chains (J2=0). In all cases, the susceptibility, which has a Curie-Weiss behavior at high temperatures, rolls over and begins to decrease below a peak temperature Tp. Scaling the exchange constants to get the same peak temperature shows that the susceptibilities for the square lattice and linear chain limits have similar magnitudes near the peak. Maximum deviation arises near the triangular-lattice limit, where frustration leads to much smaller susceptibility and with a flatter temperature dependence. We compare our results to the inorganic materials Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4 and to a number of organic molecular crystals. We find that the former (Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4) are weakly frustrated and their exchange parameters determined through the temperature dependence of the susceptibility are in agreement with neutron-scattering measurements. In contrast, the organic materials considered are strongly frustrated with exchange parameters near the isotropic triangular-lattice limit.