The Greek debt trap: an escape plan. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/19, 7 November 2012

Without corrective measures, Greek public debt will exceed 190 percent of GDP, instead of peaking at the anyway too-high target ratio of 167 percent of GDP of the March 2012 financial assistance programme. The rise is largely due to a negative feedback loop between high public debt and the collapse in GDP, and endangers Greek membership of the euro area. But a Greek exit would have devastating impacts both inside and outside Greece. A small reduction in the interest rate on bilateral loans, the exchange of European Central Bank holdings, buy-back of privately-held debt, and frontloading of some privatisation receipts are unlikely to be sufficient. A credible resolution should involve the reduction of the official lending rate to zero until 2020, an extension of the maturity of all official lending, and indexing the notional amount of all official loans to Greek GDP. Thereby, the debt ratio would fall below 100 percent of GDP by 2020, and if the economy deteriorates further, there will not be a need for new arrangements. But if growth is better than expected, official creditors will also benefit. In exchange for such help, the fiscal sovereignty of Greece should be curtailed further. An extended privatisation plan and future budget surpluses may be used to pay back the debt relief. The Greek fiscal tragedy highlights the need for a formal debt restructuring mechanism

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Internationalization motives: sell more, buy better, upgrade and escape

Purpose – The purpose of this the paper is to review the motives for internationalization to clarify previous arguments and provide a theory-driven classification. Design/methodology/approach – The authors build on behavioral economics and propose a classification of internationalization motives as the result of the interaction among two dimensions, an economics-driven exploitation of existing resources or exploration of new resources, and a psychology-driven search for better host country conditions or avoidance of poor home country conditions. Findings – These two dimensions result in four internationalization motives: sell more, in which the company exploits existing resources at home and obtains better host country conditions; buy better, in which the company exploits existing resources abroad and avoids poor home country conditions; upgrade, in which the company explores for new resources, and it obtains better host country conditions; and escape, in which the company explores for new resources and avoids poor home country conditions. Originality/value – This theory-driven classification provides predictive power for future analyses of internationalization motives.

Triple- and quadruple-escape peaks in HPGe detectors: Experimental observation and Monte Carlo simulation

The triple- and quadruple-escape peaks of 6.128 MeV photons from the (19)F(p,alpha gamma)(16)O nuclear reaction were observed in an HPGe detector. The experimental peak areas, measured in spectra projected with a restriction function that allows quantitative comparison of data from different multiplicities, are in reasonably good agreement with those predicted by Monte Carlo simulations done with the general-purpose radiation-transport code PENELOPE. The behaviour of the escape intensities was simulated for some gamma-ray energies and detector dimensions; the results obtained can be extended to other energies using an empirical function and statistical properties related to the phenomenon. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Major shear zones of southern Brazil and Uruguay: escape tectonics in the eastern border of Rio de La plata and Paranapanema cratons during the Western Gondwana amalgamation

The Mantiqueira Province represents a series of supracrustal segments of the South-American counterpart formed during the Gondwana Supercontinent agglutination. In this crustal domain, the process of escape tectonics played a conspicuous role, generating important NE-N-S-trending lineaments. The oblique component of the motions of the colliding tectonic blocks defined the transpressional character of the main suture zones: Lancinha-Itariri, Cubato-Arcadia-Areal, Serrinha-Rio Palmital in the Ribeira Belt and Sierra Ballena-Major Gercino in the Dom Feliciano Belt. The process as a whole lasted for ca. 60 Ma, since the initial collision phase until the lateral escape phase predominantly marked by dextral and subordinate sinistral transpressional shear zones. In the Dom Feliciano Belt, southern Brazil and Uruguay, transpressional event at 630-600 Ma is recognized and in the Ribeira Belt, despite less coevally, the transpressional event occurred between 590 and 560 Ma in its northern-central portion and between ca. 625 and 595 Ma in its central-southern portion. The kinematics of several shear zones with simultaneous movement in opposite directions at their terminations is explained by the sinuosity of these lineaments in relation to a predominantly continuous westward compression.

Central bank balance sheet concerns and credible optimal escape from the Liquidity trap

I show that when a central bank is financially independent from the treasury and has balance sheet concerns, an increase in the size or a change in the composition of the central bank's balance sheet (quantitative easing) can serve as a commitment device in a liquidity trap scenario. In particular, when the short-term interest rate is up against the zero lower bound, an open market operation by the central bank that involves purchases of long-term bonds can help mitigate the deation and a large negative output gap under a discretionary equilibrium. This is because such an open market operation provides an incentive to the central bank to keep interest rates low in future in order to avoid losses in its balance sheet.

Serotonergic neurons in the median raphe nucleus regulate inhibitory avoidance but not escape behavior in the rat elevated T-maze test of anxiety

Rationale: A wealth of evidence supports the involvement of the serotonergic neurons of the median raphe nucleus (MRN) in anxiety. However, it is presently unclear whether serotonergic pathways arising from this nucleus play distinguishing regulatory roles in defensive behaviors that have been associated with specific subtypes of anxiety disorders. Objectives: To evaluate the role of the MRN serotonergic neurons in the regulation of two defensive behaviors, inhibitory avoidance and escape, which have been related, respectively, to generalized anxiety and panic disorders. Methods: Male Wistar rats were submitted to the elevated T-maze test of anxiety after intra-MRN administration of drugs that either non-selectively or selectively change the activity of the serotonergic neurons. Results: Intra-MRN injection of FG 7142 (0.04 and 0.08 nmol) and kainic acid (0.03 and 0.06 nmol), drugs that non-selectively stimulate the MRN serotonergic neurons, facilitated inhibitory avoidance acquisition, but impaired escape performance. Microinjection of muscimol (0.11 and 0.22 nmol), a compound that non-selectively inhibits the activity of the MRN serotonergic neurons, impaired inhibitory avoidance and facilitated escape performance. Both kainic acid and muscimol also changed rat locomotion in the open-field test. Intra-MRN injection of 8-OH-DPAT (0.6-15 nmol) and WAY-100635 (0.18-0.74 nmol), respectively an agonist and an antagonist of somatodendritic 5-HT1A receptors located on serotonergic neurons of the MRN, only affected inhibitory avoidance-while the former inhibited the acquisition of this behavior, the latter facilitated it. Conclusion: MRN serotonergic neurons seem to be selectively involved in the regulation of inhibitory avoidance in the elevated T-maze. This result supports the proposal that 5-HT pathways departing from this nucleus play an important role in anxiety processing, with implications for pathologies such as generalized anxiety disorder.

Escape and transport for an open bouncer: Stretched exponential decays

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Scaling invariance for the escape of particles from a periodically corrugated waveguide

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Magnetic Field Line Escape: Comparison with Mean Free Path

In the present work, we determine the fraction of magnetic field lines that reach the tokamak wall leaving the plasma surrounded by a chaotic layer created by resonant perturbations at the plasma edge. The chaotic layer arises in a scenario where an integrable magnetic field with reversed magnetic shear is perturbed by an ergodic magnetic limiter. For each considered line, we calculate its connection length, i.e. the number of toroidal turns that the field lines complete before reaching the wall. We represent the results in the poloidal section in which the initial coordinates are chosen. We also estimate the radial profile of the fraction of field lines, for different temperatures, whose connection lengths are smaller than the electron collisional mean free path.

Numerical study about natural escape and capture routes by the Moon via Lagrangian points L1 and L2

The lunar sphere of influence, whose radius is some 66,300 km, has regions of stable orbits around the Moon and also regions that contain trajectories which, after spending some time around the Moon, escape and are later recaptured by lunar gravity. Both the escape and the capture occur along the Lagrangian equilibrium points L1 and L2. In this study, we mapped out the region of lunar influence considering the restricted three-body Earth-Moon-particle problem and the four-body Sun-Earth-Moon-particle (probe) problem. We identified the stable trajectories, and the escape and capture trajectories through the L I and L2 in plots of the eccentricity versus the semi-major axis as a function of the time that the energy of the osculating lunar trajectory in the two-body Moon-particle problem remains negative. We also investigated the properties of these routes, giving special attention to the fact that they supply a natural mechanism for performing low-energy transfers between the Earth and the Moon, and can thus be useful on a great number of future missions. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.