Analysis of resource efficiency : a production frontier approach

This article integrates the material/energy flow analysis into a production frontier framework to quantify resource efficiency (RE). The emergy content of natural resources instead of their mass content is used to construct aggregate inputs. Using the production frontier approach, aggregate inputs will be optimised relative to given output quantities to derive RE measures. This framework is superior to existing RE indicators currently used in the literature. Using the exergy/emergy content in constructing aggregate material or energy flows overcomes a criticism that mass content cannot be used to capture different quality of differing types of resources. Derived RE measures are both ‘qualitative’ and ‘quantitative’, whereas existing RE indicators are only qualitative. An empirical examination into the RE of 116 economies was undertaken to illustrate the practical applicability of the new framework. The results showed that economies, on average, could reduce the consumption of resources by more than 30% without any reduction in per capita gross domestic product (GDP). This calculation occurred after adjustments for differences in the purchasing power of national currencies. The existence of high variations in RE across economies was found to be positively correlated with participation of people in labour force, population density, urbanisation, and GDP growth over the past five years. The results also showed that economies of a higher income group achieved higher RE, and those economies that are more dependent on imports and primary industries would have lower RE performance.

Native cut foliage production using Proteaceae species - A research summary

The Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries in collaboration with the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation and Yuruga Nursery Pty Ltd have been conducting research into the development of five native foliage products. The three species and two cultivars being developed for commercial production are: Grevillea baileyana, Lomatia fraxinifolia, Athertonia diversifolia, Stenocarpus 'Forest Lace' and Stenocarpus 'Forest Gem'. Previous research involved an evaluation of 21 species from which these five were selected based on market comments, post harvest life and ability to grow under a range of climatic conditions. Lomatia fraxinifolia, Grevillea baileyana and Athertonia diversifolia are all native to north Queensland rainforests. Stenocarpus 'Forest Gem' and Stenocarpus 'Forest Lace' are hybrids and have been selected by Yuruga Nursery Pty Ltd. Both Stenocarpus cultivars are protected by Plant Breeders Rights. Current research into the commercial development of these species involves: market research, post harvest trials, field trials and grower training. Two field trials have been established on the Atherton Tablelands, one in the high rainfall zone at Yungaburra and the other in the low rainfall zone west of Mareeba. Field trials will evaluate the effects of fertiliser rates and pruning techniques on yield. Pests and diseases will be identified and appropriate control measures tested on trial plants. Vase life evaluations have also been carried out and the results indicate that the five foliages have exceptional vase life. All five products are being sold on the Australian domestic market in small volumes at this stage; it is anticipated that sales will significantly increase in the coming years. A number of leading exporters have indicated that the foliages may also meet the requirements of export markets. Stenocarpus 'Forest Gem' is similar in appearance to Persoonia longifolia (Barker Bush), which is a bush-picked foliage currently exported from Australia to a number of overseas markets.

Evaluation of tomato production systems at Bowen in mitigating the risk of fruit fly infestation: a systems approach for market access

Queensland fruit flies Bactrocera tryoni and B. neohumeralis are considered major quarantine pests of tomato, a major crop in the horticultural production district around Bowen, North Queensland, Australia. Preharvest and/or postharvest treatments are required to meet the market access requirements of both domestic and international trading partners. The suspension from use of dimethoate and fenthion, the two insecticides used for fruit fly control, has resulted in the loss of both pre and postharvest uses in fresh tomato. Research undertaken quantitatively at Bowen evaluated the effectiveness of pre-harvest production systems without specific fruit fly controls and postharvest mitigation measures in reducing the risk of fruit fly infestation in tomato. A district-wide trapping using cue-lure baited traps was undertaken to determine fruit fly seasonal patterns in relation to the cropping seasons. A total of 17,626 field-harvested and 11,755 pack-house tomatoes were sampled from ten farms over three cropping seasons (2006-2009). The fruit were incubated and examined for fruit fly infestation. No fruit fly infested fruit were recorded over the three seasons in either the field or the pack-house samples. Statistical analyses showed that upper infestation levels were extremely low (between 0.025 and 0.062%) at the 95% confidence level. The trap catches showed a seasonal pattern in fruit fly activity, with low numbers during the autumn and winter months, rising slightly in spring and peaking in summer. This seasonal pattern was similar over the four seasons. The main two species of fruit fly caught were B. tryoni and B. neohumeralis. Based on the results, it is clear that the risk of fruit fly infestation is extremely low under the current production systems in the Bowen region.

Food aid and food production: A theoretical analysis

It has been claimed that food aid leads to permanent dependency as it depresses domestic food prices and thus farmers find it profitable to take land out of food production and into more lucrative activities. This paper develops two alternative scenarios under which the hypothesis about the damaging effect of food aid may not be true. Under the first scenario, it is argued that food production in developing countries is often low due to unfavourable trade policies and if food aid is tied to the removal of bias against the agricultural sector, food aid will not have any disincentive effect on food production. The second exercise argues that the revenue raised by the recipient government by selling aid could be used for R and D in agricultural production.

Domestic violence on #qanda: The “Man” question in live Twitter discussion on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Q&A

Domestic violence is currently undergoing a period of heightened visibility in Australia. This article uses social media to analyze public discussions about this violence with respect to a specific theoretical frame, which Adrian Howe has called the “Man” question: where and how are men visible or invisible in narratives about their violence against women? The article presents a qualitative study of the Twitter conversation surrounding a special episode of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's television program Q&A, themed around family violence, which aired in February 2015. We found that the place of men in this conversation was contested. Some tweets privileged men's voices and concerns, as did the organization and production of the program. However, feminist voices were also highly visible via presenting facts, legitimating survivor voices, and recuperating anti-feminist memes to challenge hegemonic patriarchal discourses on men's violence against women. La violence conjugale connait actuellement une visibilité accrue en Australie. Les auteures du présent article utilisent les réseaux sociaux pour analyser les débats publics sur cette violence selon un cadre théorique précis, qu'Adrian Howe a appelé la question de « l'homme » : où et comment les hommes sont-ils visibles ou invisibles dans les récits de leur violence envers les femmes? L'article présente une étude qualitative d'une conversation sur Twitter au sujet d'un épisode axé sur la famille diffusé en février 2015 dans le cadre de l'émission Q & A, à la télévision nationale d'Australie. Nous avons remarqué que dans cette conversation la place des hommes était remise en question. Certains tweets privilégiaient les voix et les craintes des hommes, comme l'ont fait les organisateurs et les producteurs de l'émission. Cependant, il y avait une forte présence de voix féministes dans la présentation des faits, légitimant le point de vue des survivantes et relevant des éléments culturels antiféministes afin de défier les discours hégémoniques et patriarcaux sur la violence des hommes envers les femmes.

Social dynamics for sustainable food systems : Actors' orientations towards sustainability in primary production and public consumption

The modern food system and sustainable development form a conceptual combination that suggests sustainability deficits in environmental impacts and nutritional status of western populations. This study explores actors orientations towards sustainability by probing into social dynamics for sustainability within primary production and public consumption. If actors within these two worlds were to express converging orientations for sustainability, the system dynamics of the market would enable more sustainable growth in terms of production dictated by consumption. The study is based on a constructivist research approach with qualitative text analyses. The findings were validated by internal and external food system actors and are suggested to represent current social dynamics within Finnish food system. The key findings included primary producers social skilfulness, which enabled networking with other actors in very different paths of life, learning in order to promote one s trade, and trusting reflectively in partners in order to expand business. These activities extended the supply chain in a spiral fashion by horizontal and vertical forward integration, until large retailers were met for negotiations on a more equal basis. This mode of chain level coordination, typically building around the core of social and partnership relations, was coined as a socially overlaid network, and seen as sustainable coordination mode for endogenous growth. The caterers exhibited more or less committed professional identity for sustainability within their reach. The facilitating approaches for professional identities dealt successfully with local and organic food in addition to domestic food, and also imported food. The co-operation with supply chains created innovative solutions and savings for the business parties to be shared. There were also more complicated identities as juggling, critical and delimited approaches for sustainability, with less productive efforts due to restrictions such as absence of organisational sustainability strategy, weak presence of local and organic suppliers, limited understanding about sustainability and no organisational resources for informed choices for sustainability. The convergence between producers and caterers existed to an extent allowing suggestion that increased clarity about sustainable consumption and production by actors could be constructed using advanced tools. The study looks for introduction of more profound environmental and socio-economic knowledge through participatory research with supply chain actors. Learning in the workplace about food system reality in terms of supply chain co-operation may prove to be a change engine that leads to advanced network operations and a more sustainable food system.

Social dynamics for sustainable food systems. Actors’ orientations towards sustainability in primary production and public consumption

Abstract The modern food system and sustainable development form a conceptual combination that suggests sustainability deficits in the ways we deal with food consumption and production - in terms of economic relations, environmental impacts and nutritional status of western population. This study explores actors’ orientations towards sustainability by taking into account actors’ embedded positions within structures of the food system, actors’ economic relations and views about sustainability as well as their possibilities for progressive activities. The study looks particularly at social dynamics for sustainability within primary production and public consumption. If actors within these two worlds were to express converging orientations for sustainability, the system dynamics of the market would enable more sustainable growth in terms of production dictated by consumption. The study is based on a constructivist research approach with qualitative text analyses. The data consisted of three text corpora, the ‘local food corpus’, the ‘catering corpus’ and the ‘mixed corpus’. The local food actors were interviewed about their economic exchange relations. The caterers’ interviews dealt with their professional identity for sustainability. Finally, the mixed corpus assembled a dialogue as a participatory research approach, which was applied in order to enable researcher and caterer learning about the use of organic milk in public catering. The data were analysed for theoretically conceptualised relations, expressing behavioural patterns in actors’ everyday work as interpreted by the researcher. The findings were corroborated by the internal and external communities of food system actors. The interpretations have some validity, although they only present abstractions of everyday life and its rich, even opaque, fabric of meanings and aims. The key findings included primary producers’ social skilfulness, which enabled networking with other actors in very different paths of life, learning in order to promote one’s trade, and trusting reflectively in partners in order to extend business. These activities expanded the supply chain in a spiral fashion by horizontal and vertical forward integration, until large retailers were met for negotiations on a more equal or ‘other regarding’ basis. This kind of chain level coordination, typically building around the core of social and partnership relations, was coined as a socially overlaid network. It supported market access of local farmers, rooted in their farms, who were able to draw on local capital and labour in promotion of competitive business; the growth was endogenous. These kinds of chains – one conventional and one organic – were different from the strategic chain, which was more profit based and while highly competitive, presented exogenous growth as it depended on imported capital and local employees. However, the strategic chain offered learning opportunities and support for the local economy. The caterers exhibited more or less committed professional identity for sustainability within their reach. The facilitating and balanced approaches for professional identities dealt successfully with local and organic food in addition to domestic food, and also imported food. The co-operation with supply chains created innovative solutions and savings for the business parties to be shared. The rule-abiding approach for sustainability only made choices among organic supply chains without extending into co-operation with actors. There were also more complicated and troubled identities as juggling, critical and delimited approaches for sustainability, with less productive efforts due to restrictions such as absence of organisational sustainability strategy, weak presence of local and organic suppliers, limited understanding about sustainability and no organisational resources to develop changes towards a sustainable food system. Learning in the workplace about food system reality in terms of supply chain co-operation may prove to be a change engine that leads to advanced network operations and a more sustainable food system. The convergence between primary producers and caterers existed to an extent allowing suggestion that increased clarity about sustainable consumption and production by actors could be approached using advanced tools. The study looks for introduction of more profound environmental and socio-economic knowledge through participatory research with supply chain actors in order to promote more sustainable food systems. Summary of original publications and the authors’ contribution I Mikkola, M. & Seppänen, L. 2006. Farmers’ new participation in food chains: making horizontal and vertical progress by networking. In: Langeveld, H. & Röling N. (Eds.). Changing European farming systems for a better future. New visions for rural areas. Wageningen, The Netherlands. Wageningen Academic Publishers: 267–271. II Mikkola, M. 2008. Coordinative structures and development of food supply chains. British Food Journal 110 (2): 189–205. III Mikkola, M. 2009. Shaping professional identity for sustainability. Evidence in Finnish public catering. Appetite 53 (1): 56–65. IV Mikkola, M. 2009. Catering for sustainability: building a dialogue on organic milk. Agronomy Research 7 (Special issue 2): 668–676. Minna Mikkola has been responsible for developing the generic research frame, particular research questions, the planning and collection of the data, their qualitative analysis and writing the articles I, II, III and IV. Dr Laura Seppänen has contributed to the development of the generic research frame and article I by introducing the author to the basic concepts of economic sociology and by supporting the writing of article II with her critical comments. Articles are printed with permission from the publishers.

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli in Finnish poultry production

Campylobacter, mainly Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli, are worldwide recognized as a major cause of bacterial food-borne gastroenteritis. Epidemiological studies have shown handling or eating of poultry to be significant risk factors for human infections. Campylobacter contamination can occur at all stages of a poultry meat production cycle. The aim of this thesis was to study the occurrence and diversity of Campylobacter in broiler and turkey production in Finland. In summer 1999, 2.9 % of slaughtered broiler flocks were Campylobacter-positive. From the isolated strains 94 % were C. jejuni and 6% were C. coli. During years 2005-2006 one turkey parent flock, the hatchery, six different commercial turkey farms and different stages of the slaughterhouse were monitored during one and the half year. No Campylobacter were detected in either of the samples from the turkey parent flock or from the hatchery using the culture method. Instead PCR detected DNA of Campylobacter from the turkey parent flock and samples from the hatchery. Six out of 12 commercial turkey flocks were found negative at the farm level but only two of those were negative at slaughter. Campylobacter-positive samples within the flock at slaughter were detected between 0% and 94% with evisceration and chilling water being the most critical stages for contamination. All of Campylobacter isolates were shown to be C. jejuni. Campylobacter-positive turkey flocks were colonized by a limited number of Campylobacter genotypes both at the farm and slaughter level. In conclusion, in our first study in 1999 a low prevalence of Campylobacter in Finnish broiler flocks was detected and it has remained at a low level during the study period until the present. In the turkey meat production, we found that flocks which were negative at the farm became contaminated with Campylobacter at the slaughter process. These results suggest that proper and efficient cleaning and disinfection of slaughter and processing premises are needed to avoid cross-contamination. Prevention of colonization at the farm by a high level of biosecurity control and hygiene may be one of the most efficient ways to reduce the amount of Campylobacter-positive poultry meat in Finland. With a persistent low level of Campylobacter-positive flocks, it could be speculated that the use of logistic slaughtering, according to Campylobacter status at farm, might have be advantageous in reducing Campylobacter contamination of retail poultry products. However, the significance of the domestic poultry meat for human campylobacteriosis in Finland should be evaluated.

Campylobacter jejuni and C.coli in Finnish poultry production

Campylobacter, mainly Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli, are worldwide recognized as a major cause of bacterial food-borne gastroenteritis (World Health Organization 2010). Epidemiological studies have shown handling or eating of poultry to be significant risk factors for human infections. Campylobacter contamination can occur at all stages of a poultry meat production cycle. In summer 1999, every broiler flock from all three major Finnish poultry slaughterhouses was studied during a five month period. Caecal samples were taken in the slaughterhouses from five birds per flock. A total of 1 132 broiler flocks were tested and 33 (2.9%) of those were Campylobacter-positive. Thirty-one isolates were identified as C. jejuni and two isolates were C. coli. The isolates were serotyped for heat-stable antigens (HS) and genotyped by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The most common serotypes found were HS 6,7, 12 and 4-complex. Using a combination of SmaI and KpnI patterns, 18 different PFGE types were identified. Thirty-five Finnish C. jejuni strains with five SmaI/SacII PFGE types selected among human and chicken isolates from 1997 and 1998 were used for comparison of their PFGE patterns, amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) patterns, HaeIII ribotypes, and HS serotypes. The discriminatory power of PFGE, AFLP and ribotyping with HaeIII were shown to be at the same level for this selected set of strains, and these methods assigned the strains into the same groups. The PFGE and AFLP patterns within a genotype were highly similar, indicating genetic relatedness. An HS serotype was distributed among different genotypes, and different serotypes were identified within one genotype. From one turkey parent flock, the hatchery, six different commercial turkey farms (together 12 flocks) and from 11 stages at the slaughterhouse a total of 456 samples were collected during one and the half year. For the detection of Campylobacter both conventional culture and a PCR method were used. No Campylobacter were detected in either of the samples from the turkey parent flock or from the hatchery samples using the culture method. Instead PCR detected DNA of Campylobacter in five faecal samples from the turkey parent flock and in one fluff and an eggshell sample. Six out of 12 commercial turkey flocks were found negative at the farm level but only two of those were negative at slaughter. Campylobacter-positive samples within the flock at slaughter were detected between 0% and 94%, with evisceration and chilling water being the most critical stages for contamination. All of a total of 121 Campylobacter isolates were shown to be C. jejuni using a multiplex PCR assay. PFGE analysis of all isolates with KpnI restriction enzyme resulted in 11 PFGE types (I-XI) and flaA-SVR typing yielded nine flaA-SVR alleles. Three Campylobacter-positive turkey flocks were colonized by a limited number of Campylobacter genotypes both at the farm and slaughter level.In conclusion, in our first study in 1999 a low prevalence of Campylobacter in Finnish broiler flocks was detected and it has remained at a low level during the study period until the present. In the turkey meat production, we found that flocks which were negative at the farm became contaminated with Campylobacter at the slaughter process. These results suggest that proper and efficient cleaning and disinfection of slaughter and processing premises are needed to avoid cross-contamination. Prevention of colonization at the farm by a high level of biosecurity control and hygiene may be one of the most efficient ways to reduce the amount of Campylobacter-positive poultry meat in Finland. In Finland, with a persistent low level of Campylobacter-positive flocks, it could be speculated that the use of logistic slaughtering, according to Campylobacter status at farm, might have be advantageous in reducing Campylobacter contamination of retail poultry products. However, the significance of the domestic poultry meat for human campylobacteriosis in Finland should be evaluated.

Management of environmental issues for sustainable fisheries production from aquaculture in Nigeria

Aquaculture depends largely upon a good aquatic environment. The quality of the aquatic medium determines success to a large extent in aquaculture. The medium is particularly vulnerable to excessive abstraction (i.e surface or groundwater) and contamination from a range of sources (industrial, agricultural or domestic) as well as risks of self-pollution. Environmental management options proffered so far include: improvements in farming performance (especially related to feed and feeding strategies, stocking densities, water quality management, disease prevention and control, use of chemicals, etc.) and in the selection of sites and culturable species, treatment of effluents, sensitivity of recipient waters and enforcement of environmental regulations and guidelines specific to the culture system. There are presently conceptual frameworks for aquatic environment management backed by legal administrative tools to create or enforce rational system for water management, fisheries and aquaculture development strengthened by adaptive institutionalisation

Management of inland capture fisheries and challenges in fish production in Nigeria

The paper critically examines the trend in fish production in Nigeria. The problem of excessive mismanagement and lack of attention by relevant agencies are still common place in inland water bodies. The paper discusses these mismanagement practices which are non compliance with the existing rules and regulations on good fishing methods, uncontrollable, unorthodox and obnoxious fishing practices, destruction of the natural breeding grounds and the collapse of the fishery due to massive over fishing. The challenges posed by the fishing methods as well as the effect of different gears and mechanization of fishing crafts on fish production are discussed. The paper recommends ways to increase domestic fish production in inland water bodies, which include a well planned strategy of restocking the existing reservoirs after careful scientific study, enforcement of the existing laws and regulation based on community participation. Training of stakeholders on the code of practice for responsible fisheries (CPRF), extension of subsidies to fisher folks, the traditional practices, which encourage the adherence to close season and other fish conservation and utilization strategies, are also advocated

Fish distribution in a small domestic water supply reservoir: a case study of Kangimi Reservoir, Kaduna, Nigeria

A study of the composition and distribution of fish populations in the inshore, surface and bottom water habitats of Kangimi Reservoir showed that the most abundant family was the Cichlidae followed in order of abundance by the familiesCyprinidae, Schilbeidae, Mormyridae, Mochokidae, Characidae, centropomidae and Bagridae. Though the overall composition of families caught inn the three habitats did not vary significantly (P>0.05) only family Cichlidae showed habitat preference: there was a preponderance of Cichlidae in the inshore water habitat (P<0.05). The families Bagridae and Centropomidae were caught only in the inshore and bottom water habitats while the other families were caught from all habitats and showed no habitat preference. The dominance of primary and secondary consumers indicates high fish production potential under adequate management

A study on the economic efficiency of hydrogen production from biomass residues in China

As part of Pilot Project of KIP of CAS, a feasibility study of hydrogen production system using biomass residues is conducted. This study is based on a process of oxygen-rich air gasification of biomass in a downdraft gasifier plus CO-shift. The capacity of this system is 6.4 t biomass/d. Applying this system, it is expected that an annual production of 480 billion N m(3) H-2 will be generated for domestic supply in China. The capital cost of the plant used in this study is 1328$/(N m(3)/h) H-2 out, and product supply cost is 0.15$/N m(3) H-2. The cost sensitivity analysis on this system tells that electricity and catalyst cost are the two most important factors to influence hydrogen production cost.

Biomethane production from food waste and organic residues

Anaerobic digestion (AD) of biodegradable waste is an environmentally and economically sustainable solution which incorporates waste treatment and energy recovery. The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW), which comprises mostly of food waste, is highly degradable under anaerobic conditions. Biogas produced from OFMSW, when upgraded to biomethane, is recognised as one of the most sustainable renewable biofuels and can also be one of the cheapest sources of biomethane if a gate fee is associated with the substrate. OFMSW is a complex and heterogeneous material which may have widely different characteristics depending on the source of origin and collection system used. The research presented in this thesis investigates the potential energy resource from a wide range of organic waste streams through field and laboratory research on real world samples. OFMSW samples collected from a range of sources generated methane yields ranging from 75 to 160 m3 per tonne. Higher methane yields are associated with source segregated food waste from commercial catering premises as opposed to domestic sources. The inclusion of garden waste reduces the specific methane yield from household organic waste. In continuous AD trials it was found that a conventional continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) gave the highest specific methane yields at a moderate organic loading rate of 2 kg volatile solids (VS) m-3 digester day-1 and a hydraulic retention time of 30 days. The average specific methane yield obtained at this loading rate in continuous digestion was 560 ± 29 L CH4 kg-1 VS which exceeded the biomethane potential test result by 5%. The low carbon to nitrogen ratio (C: N <14:1) associated with canteen food waste lead to increasing concentrations of volatile fatty acids in line with high concentrations of ammonia nitrogen at higher organic loading rates. At an organic loading rate of 4 kg VS m-3day-1 the specific methane yield dropped considerably (381 L CH4 kg-1 VS), the pH rose to 8.1 and free ammonia (NH3 ) concentrations reached toxicity levels towards the end of the trial (ca. 950 mg L-1). A novel two phase AD reactor configuration consisting of a series of sequentially fed leach bed reactors connected to an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) demonstrated a high rate of organic matter decay but resulted in lower specific methane yields (384 L CH4 kg-1 VS) than the conventional CSTR system.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.