Left on the side of the road? A review of deterrence-based theoretical developments in road safety

Deterrence-based initiatives form a cornerstone of many road safety countermeasures. This approach is informed by Classical Deterrence Theory, which proposes that individuals will be deterred from committing offences if they fear the perceived consequences of the act, especially the perceived certainty, severity and swiftness of sanctions. While deterrence-based countermeasures have proven effective in reducing a range of illegal driving behaviours known to cause crashes such as speeding and drink driving, the exact level of exposure, and how the process works, remains unknown. As a result the current study involved a systematic review of the literature to identify theoretical advancements within deterrence theory that has informed evidence-based practice. Studies that reported on perceptual deterrence between 1950 and June 2015 were searched in electronic databases including PsychINFO and ScienceDirect, both within road safety and non-road safety fields. This review indicated that scientific efforts to understand deterrence processes for road safety were most intense during the 1970s and 1980s. This era produced competing theories that postulated both legal and non-legal factors can influence offending behaviours. Since this time, little theoretical progression has been made in the road safety arena, apart from Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualisation of deterrence that illuminated the important issue of punishment avoidance. In contrast, the broader field of criminology has continued to advance theoretical knowledge by investigating a range of individual difference-based factors proposed to influence deterrent processes, including: moral inhibition, social bonding, self-control, tendencies to discount the future, etc. However, this scientific knowledge has not been directed towards identifying how to best utilise deterrence mechanisms to improve road safety. This paper will highlight the implications of this lack of progression and provide direction for future research.

Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

A contemporary assessment of land condition in the Northern Gulf region of Queensland

A framework using assessments of soil condition, pasture composition and woodland density was applied to describe 14 grazing land types as being in A (100% of original carrying capacity), B (75%), C (45%) or D (20%) condition. We assessed the condition of 260 sites, principally along public and some station roads, to provide a benchmark for current land condition. Land types were also assigned relative grazing values between 10 (best) and 0, reflecting soil fertility and potential biomass production. The method identifies particular, 'at-risk' land types for priority investment of resources, while the rationale behind assessments might point to management interventions to improve the condition of those land types. Across all land types, 47% of sites were in A condition, 34% in B condition, 17% in C condition and only 2% in D condition. Seventy-five percent of land types with grazing values >5 were in A or B condition, compared with 88% for those with grazing values ?5. For Georgetown granites, only 27% of sites were in A or B condition, with values for other land types being: alluvials 59%, black soils 64% and red duplex soils 57%, suggesting that improving management of these land types is a priority issue. On land types with high grazing value, the major discounting factor was pasture composition (72% of sites discounted), while increasing woodland density was the main discount (73% of sites discounted) on low grazing value land types.

The effect of ground leases on house prices in Helsinki

One imperfection in housing markets is imperfect knowledge about legal interests such as ground leases. Both actual reduced legal interest as well as uncertainty surrounding rights and future lease payments for houses constructed on leased land may affect prices relative to houses built on freehold land. We use regression analysis of sales prices of condominium transactions in Helsinki to examine the effect ground leases have on house prices. We find that prices on condominiums constructed on leased lots are discounted at least 5 %, on average. In addition, we see that the announcement of potentially large increases in base rents upon renewal contributes to the discount.

Factors affecting farmland prices in Finland

The purpose of the study was to analyse factors affecting the differences in land prices between regions. The key issue was to find out the policy effects on farmland prices. In addition to comprehensive literature review, a theoretical analysis as well as modern panel and spatial econometric techniques were utilized. The study clearly pointed out the importance of taking into account the possible spatial dependence. The data were exceptionally large, comprising more than 6 000 observations. Thus, it allowed a thorough econometric estimation including the possibility to take into account the spatial nature of the data. This study supports the view that there are many other factors that affect farmland prices besides pure agricultural returns. It was also found that the support clearly affects land prices. However, rather than assuming the discount rates for support and market returns to be similar, the rough analysis refers to the discount rate for support being a little lower. If this were true it would indicate that farmers rely more on support income than market returns. The results support the view presented in literature that land values are more responsive to government payments when these payments are perceived to be permanent. An important result of this study is that the structural differences between regions and the structural change in agriculture seemed to have a considerable role in affecting land prices. Firstly, the present structure affects the competition in the land market: the more dense farms are in the region the more there are potential buyers, and the land price increases. Secondly, the change in farm structure (especially in animal husbandry) connected to the policy changes that increase area-based support affects land prices. The effect comes from two sources. Growing farms need more land for the manure, and the proportion of retiring farmers may be lower. The introduction of the manure density variable proved to be an efficient way to aggregate the otherwise very difficult task of taking into account the environmental pressure caused by structural change in animal husbandry. Finally, infrastructure also has a very important role in determining the price level of agricultural land. If other industries are prospering in the surrounding area, agricultural viability also seems to improve. The non-farm opportunities offered to farm families make continuing and developing farming more tempting.

Essays on socially optimal phosphorus policies in crop production

Phosphorus is a nutrient needed in crop production. While boosting crop yields it may also accelerate eutrophication in the surface waters receiving the phosphorus runoff. The privately optimal level of phosphorus use is determined by the input and output prices, and the crop response to phosphorus. Socially optimal use also takes into account the impact of phosphorus runoff on water quality. Increased eutrophication decreases the economic value of surface waters by Deteriorating fish stocks, curtailing the potential for recreational activities and by increasing the probabilities of mass algae blooms. In this dissertation, the optimal use of phosphorus is modelled as a dynamic optimization problem. The potentially plant available phosphorus accumulated in soil is treated as a dynamic state variable, the control variable being the annual phosphorus fertilization. For crop response to phosphorus, the state variable is more important than the annual fertilization. The level of this state variable is also a key determinant of the runoff of dissolved, reactive phosphorus. Also the loss of particulate phosphorus due to erosion is considered in the thesis, as well as its mitigation by constructing vegetative buffers. The dynamic model is applied for crop production on clay soils. At the steady state, the analysis focuses on the effects of prices, damage parameterization, discount rate and soil phosphorus carryover capacity on optimal steady state phosphorus use. The economic instruments needed to sustain the social optimum are also analyzed. According to the results the economic incentives should be conditioned on soil phosphorus values directly, rather than on annual phosphorus applications. The results also emphasize the substantial effects the differences in varying discount rates of the farmer and the social planner have on optimal instruments. The thesis analyzes the optimal soil phosphorus paths from its alternative initial levels. It also examines how erosion susceptibility of a parcel affects these optimal paths. The results underline the significance of the prevailing soil phosphorus status on optimal fertilization levels. With very high initial soil phosphorus levels, both the privately and socially optimal phosphorus application levels are close to zero as the state variable is driven towards its steady state. The soil phosphorus processes are slow. Therefore, depleting high phosphorus soils may take decades. The thesis also presents a methodologically interesting phenomenon in problems of maximizing the flow of discounted payoffs. When both the benefits and damages are related to the same state variable, the steady state solution may have an interesting property, under very general conditions: The tail of the payoffs of the privately optimal path as well as the steady state may provide a higher social welfare than the respective tail of the socially optimal path. The result is formalized and an applied to the created framework of optimal phosphorus use.

A Lidl bit of grocery competition could cause a Coles rethink

Australian shoppers have inadvertently invited global discount grocers to our shores by demonstrating their readiness to adopt private labels. In 2001, German discounter Aldi opened its first store in Sydney. The impact this business format would have on the Australian grocery sector was underestimated.

Move over Aldi, Lidl may be next for Australian market

If speculation that German discount supermarket, Lidl, is preparing to launch into the Australian market is correct, it will be the biggest shake up in the grocery sector since Aldi’s arrival in 2001. With potentially five viable combatants in the mix, the way we shop and how supermarkets and suppliers compete, will fundamentally change.

Making decisions about antibiotic use in the Australian primary healthcare sector

Background Australia has one of the highest rates of antibiotic use amongst OECD countries. Data from the Australian primary healthcare sector suggests unnecessary antibiotics were prescribed for self-resolving conditions. We need to better understand what drives general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe antibiotics, consumers to seek antibiotics, and pharmacists to fill repeat antibiotic prescriptions. It is also not clear how these individuals trade-off between the possible benefits that antibiotics may provide in the immediate/short term, against the longer term societal risk of antimicrobial resistance. This project investigates what factors drive decisions to use antibiotics for GPs, pharmacists and consumers, and how these individuals discount the future. Methods Factors will be gleaned from published literature and from semi-structured interviews, to inform the development of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). Three DCEs will be constructed – one for each group of interest – to allow investigation of which factors are more important in influencing (a) GPs to prescribe antibiotics, (b) consumers to seek antibiotics, and (c) pharmacists to fill legally valid but old or repeat prescriptions of antibiotics. Regression analysis will be conducted to understand the relative importance of these factors. A Time Trade Off exercise will be developed to investigate how these individuals discount the future. Results Findings from the DCEs will provide an insight into which factors are more important in driving decision making in antibiotic use for GPs, pharmacists and consumers. Findings from the Time Trade Off exercise will show what individuals are willing to trade for preserving the miracle of antibiotics. Conclusion Research findings will contribute to existing national programs to bring about a reduction in inappropriate use of antibiotic in Australia. Specifically, influencing how key messages and public health campaigns are crafted, and clinical education and empowerment of GPs and pharmacists to play a more responsive role as stewards of antibiotic use in the community.

Essays on Misplanning Wealth and Health: A Behavioural Approach

The dissertation consists of three essays on misplanning wealth and health accumulation. The conventional economics assumes that individual's intertemporal preferences are exponential (exponential preferences, EP). Recent findings in behavioural economics have shown that, actually, people do discount near future relatively heavier than distant future. This implies hyperbolic intertemporal preferences (HP). Essays I and II concentrate especially on the effects of a delayed completion of tasks, a feature of behaviour that HP enables. Essay III uses current Finnish data to analyse the evolvement of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and inconsistencies in measuring that. Essay I studies the existence effects of a lucrative retirement savings program (SP) on the retirement savings of different individual types having HP. If the individual does not know that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the naïve, for certain conditions, he delays the enrolment on SP until he abandons it. Very interesting finding is that the naïve retires then poorer in the presence than in the absence of SP. For the same conditions, the individual who knows that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the sophisticated, gains from the existence of SP, and retires with greater retirement savings in the presence than in the absence of SP. Finally, capabilities to learn from past behaviour and about intertemporal preferences improve possibilities to gain from the existence but an adequate time to learn must be then guaranteed. Essay II studies delayed doctor's visits, theirs effects on the costs of a public health care system and government's attempts to control patient behaviour and fund the system. The controlling devices are a consultation fee and a deductible for that. The deductible is effective only for a patient whose diagnosis reveals a disease that would not get cured without the doctor's visit. The naives delay their visits the longest while EP-patients are the quickest visitors. To control the naives, the government should implement a low fee and a high deductible, while for the sophisticates the opposite is true. Finally, if all the types exist in an economy then using an incorrect conventional assumption that all individuals have EP leads to worse situation and requires higher tax rates than assuming incorrectly but unconventionally that only the naives exists. Essay III studies the development of QALYs in Finland 1995/96-2004. The essay concentrates on developing a consistent measure, i.e. independent of discounting, for measuring the age and gender specific QALY-changes and their incidences. For the given time interval, use of a relative change out of an attainable change seems to be almost intact to discounting and reveals that the greatest gains are for older age groups.

Hydropower Project Design Incorporating Submergence Costs

Submergence of land is a major impact of large hydropower projects. Such projects are often also dogged by siltation, delays in construction and heavy debt burdens-factors that are not considered in the project planning exercise. A simple constrained optimization model for the benefit~ost analysis of large hydropower projects that considers these features is proposed. The model is then applied to two sites in India. Using the potential productivity of an energy plantation on the submergible land is suggested as a reasonable approach to estimating the opportunity cost of submergence. Optimum project dimensions are calculated for various scenarios. Results indicate that the inclusion of submergence cost may lead to a substanual reduction in net present value and hence in project viability. Parameters such as project lifespan, con$truction time, discount rate and external debt burden are also of significance. The designs proposed by the planners are found to be uneconomic, whIle even the optimal design may not be viable for more typical scenarios. The concept of energy opportunity cost is useful for preliminary screening; some projects may require more detailed calculations. The optimization approach helps identify significant trade-offs between energy generation and land availability.

Mechanism design for green, truthful procurement auctions

Auction based mechanisms have become popular in industrial procurement settings. These mechanisms minimize the cost of procurement and at the same time achieve desirable properties such as truthful bidding by the suppliers. In this paper, we investigate the design of truthful procurement auctions taking into account an additional important issue namely carbon emissions. In particular, we focus on the following procurement problem: A buyer wishes to source multiple units of a homogeneous item from several competing suppliers who offer volume discount bids and who also provide emission curves that specify the cost of emissions as a function of volume of supply. We assume that emission curves are reported truthfully since that information is easily verifiable through standard sources. First we formulate the volume discount procurement auction problem with emission constraints under the assumption that the suppliers are honest (that is they report production costs truthfully). Next we describe a mechanism design formulation for green procurement with strategic suppliers. Our numerical experimentation shows that emission constraints can significantly alter sourcing decisions and affect the procurement costs dramatically. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in explicitly taking into account carbon emissions in planning procurement auctions.

Computational Study of the Migration of Rhenium from One Enantioface of an Olefin to the Other Facilitated by (C-H)center dot center dot center dot Re Interactions

The migration of a metal atom in a metal olefin complex from one pi face of the olefin to the opposite pi face has been rarely documented. Gladysz and co-workers showed that such a movement is indeed possible in monosubstituted chiral Re olefin complexes, resulting in diastereomerization. Interestingly, this isomerization occurred without dissociation, and on the basis of kinetic isotope effects, the involvement of a trans C-H bond was indicated. Either oxidative addition or an agostic interaction of the vinylic C-H(D) bond with the metal could account for the experimentally observed kinetic isotope effect. In this study we compute the free energy of activation for the migration of Re from one enantioface of the olefin to the other through various pathways. On the basis of DFT calculations at the B3LYP level we show that a trans (C-H)center dot center dot center dot Re interaction and trans C-H oxidative addition provide a nondissociative path for the diastereomerization. The trans (C-H)center dot center dot center dot Re interaction path is computed to be more favorable by 2.3 kcal mol(-1) than the oxidative addition path. While direct experimental evidence was not able to discount the migration of the metal through the formation of a eta(2)-arene complex (conducted tour mechanism), computational results at the B3LYP level show that it is energetically more expensive. Surprisingly, a similar analysis carried out at the M06 level computes a lower energy path for the conducted tour mechanism and is not consistent with the experimental isotope effects observed. Metal-(C-H) interactions and oxidative additions of the metal into C-H bonds are closely separated in energy and might contribute to unusual fluxional processes such as this diastereomerization.

Uplift resistance of buried pipelines at low cover-diameter ratios

Reliable estimates for the maximum available uplift resistance from the backfill soil are essential to prevent upheaval buckling of buried pipelines. The current design code DNV RP F110 does not offer guidance on how to predict the uplift resistance when the cover:pipe diameter (H/D) ratio is less than 2. Hence the current industry practice is to discount the shear contribution from uplift resitance for design scenarios with H/D ratios less than 1. The necessity of this extra conservatism is assessed through a series of full-scale and centrifuge tests, 21 in total, at the Schofield Centre, University of Cambridge. Backfill types include saturated loose sand, saturated dense sand and dry gravel. Data revealed that the Vertical Slip Surface Model remains applicable for design scenarios in loose sand, dense sand and gravel with H/D ratios less than 1, and that there is no evidence that the contribution from shear should be ignored at these low H/D ratios. For uplift events in gravel, the shear component seems reliable if the cover is more than 1-2 times the average particle size (D50), and more research effort is currenty being carried out to verify this conclusion. Strain analysis from the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique proves that the Vertical Slip Surface Model is a good representation of the true uplift deformation mechanism in loose sand at H/D ratios between 0.5 and 3.5. At very low H/D ratios (H/D < 0.5), the deformation mechanism is more wedge-like, but the increased contribution from soil weight is likely to be compensated by the reduced shear contributions. Hence the design equation based on the Vertical Slip Surface Model still produces good estimates for the maximum available uplift resistance. The evolution of shear strain field from PIV analysis provides useful insight into how uplift resistance is mobilized as the uplift event progresses. Copyright 2010, Offshore Technology Conference.