Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes.

Generalised Wishart Processes

We introduce a stochastic process with Wishart marginals: the generalised Wishart process (GWP). It is a collection of positive semi-definite random matrices indexed by any arbitrary dependent variable. We use it to model dynamic (e.g. time varying) covariance matrices. Unlike existing models, it can capture a diverse class of covariance structures, it can easily handle missing data, the dependent variable can readily include covariates other than time, and it scales well with dimension; there is no need for free parameters, and optional parameters are easy to interpret. We describe how to construct the GWP, introduce general procedures for inference and predictions, and show that it outperforms its main competitor, multivariate GARCH, even on financial data that especially suits GARCH. We also show how to predict the mean of a multivariate process while accounting for dynamic correlations.

Re-examination of the coefficient of determination (r2) using road materials engineering case studies

The analysis of scientific data is integral to materials engineering and science. The correlation between measured variables is often quantified by estimating the coefficient of determination or the r2 value. This is the recognised procedure for determining linear relationships. The authors review the derivation of the r2 value and derive an associated quantity, termed the relative deviation (RD), which is the ratio of the root mean square of the deviations about the fitted line to the root mean square of the deviations about the y bar line expressed as a percentage. The relative deviation has an advantage over the coefficient of determination in that it has greater numerical sensitivity to changes in the spread of data about the fitted line, especially when the scatter is small. In addition, the relative deviation is able to define, in percentage terms, the reduction in scatter when different independent variables are correlated with a common dependent variable. Four case studies in the materials field (aggregate crushing value, Atterberg limits, permeability and creep of asphalt) from work carried out at the Queensland Main Roads Department are presented to show the use of the new parameter RD.

水土保持林土壤改良效益评估模型的研究

Based on amount of field investigation and laboratory analysis, this paper emphasized on the establishment of soil improvement benefit evaluation models. It is pointed out that the benefit evaluation models can be simulated by taking litter biomass, mean diameter of breast high (D), mean height (H) and (D 2H) as independent variables and taking comprehensive benefit evaluation index as dependent variable. The models vary with different independent variables and can be chosen to use according to actual situation.

加工深度、记忆材料类型对FOK和FOnK判断的影响

Predecessors’ research found that feeling-of-knowing and feeling-of-not-knowing was two different cognitional processes. Processing depth had more good effects on FOK judgment, but it had little effects on FOnK judgment, furthermore, it perhaps decreased the accuracy of FOnK judgment. On the base of predecessors’ research the experiment discussed the different effects on FOK judgment and FOnK judgment by processing depth and memory materials of different kinds. The first purpose was to find that the effects of processing depth on FOK judgment and FOnK judgment were different or not. The second purpose was to reveal the two different memory materials of the Paired-Chinese-words and the Paired- Chinese-phonetic-alphabet would cause difference on the grade and accuracy of FOK judgment or not, and if the two different kinds of memory materials took different effects on FOK judgment and FOnK judgment. The third purpose was to search if there was interaction on processing depth and different kinds of memory materials. The experiment used the Paired-Chinese-words and the Paired- Chinese-phonetic-alphabet as the materials, and regarded processing depth in the time of encoding stage and different kinds of memory materials as the independent variable. The experiment regarded validity of memory; the grade of FOK judgment; the accuracy of FOK judgment; the accuracy of FOnK judgment as the dependent variable. The experiment adopted the “RJR” normal researching form of FOK judgment projected by Hart. The result of the researching proved that in the condition of deep processing in the time of encoding stage, the validity of memory; the grade of FOK judgment; the accuracy of FOK judgment were higher than in the condition of superficial processing, but processing depth had little effect on accuracy of FOnK judgment. FOK judgment and FOnK judgment were two different cognitional processes. Memory materials of different kinds led clear difference on the dependent variable of the validity of memory; the grade of FOK judgment; the accuracy of FOK judgment, and also had little effect on accuracy of FOnK judgment. Processing depth and different kinds of memory materials had interaction on their effects on FOK judgment. Regard the accuracy of recall, the percentage of “feeling of knowing”, the percentage of “feeling of not knowing”, and the grade of FOK judgment as the dependent variables, memory materials of different kinds make little effect in the condition of superficial processing in the time of encoding stage, but in the condition of deep processing in the time of encoding stage, Chinese characters was higher than Chinese phonetic alphabet.

心理旋转中的整体优先效应及其机制

In the history of psychology research, more attention had been focused on the relation between local processing and global processing. For the global information and the local information, which is processed earlier? And which is processed faster? Precedence of the global over the local level in visual perception has been well established by Navon with compound stimuli, and Navon’s original study gave rise to many publications, including replications, generalization to other kinds of stimuli (nonverbal material, digits), populations (infants, children, brain-damaged subjects), and tasks (lateral visual hemifield presentation, copy drawing, memory recognition, and recall), and triggered some debate about the conditions in which global precedence is and is not observed (number, size, sparsity, and goodness of the stimuli, exposure duration, etc.). However, whether there is a global advantage or precedence in other cognitive processes was less tested. Most researches had suggested that there was a functional equivalency between visual perception and visual image processing. However, it’s still unknown whether there will be a global advantage on mental rotation. In the present study, we combined the mental rotation task with the compound stimuli to explore whether the global or local advantage also existed at the mental imagery transformation stages. In two pilot studies, the perceptual global precedence was found to be present in a normal/mirror-image judgment task when the stimuli exposure time was short; while the stimuli exposure time was prolonged (stimuli kept available till subjects’ response) the perceptual global precedence was showed to be eliminated. In all of the subsequent experiments, stimili would be presented till subjects’ response. Then mental rotation was added in normal/mirror-image judgment (some of the stimuli were rotated to certain angles from upright) in normal experiments, experiment 1 and 2 observed a global advantage on mental rotation both with a focused-attention design (Experiment 1) and divided-attention design (Experiment 2). Subjects’ reaction times were increased with rotation angles, and the accuracy was decreased with rotation angles, suggesting that subject need a mental rotation to make a normal/mirror judgment. The most important results were that subjects’ response to global rotation was faster than that to local rotation. The analysis of slope of rotation further indicated that, to some extend, the speed of global rotation was faster than that of local rotation. These results suggest a global advantage on mental rotation. Experiment 3 took advantage of the high temporal resolution of event-related potentials to explore the temporal pattern of global advantage on mental rotation. Event-related potential results indicated the parietal P300 amplitude was inversely related to the character orientation, and the local rotation task delayed the onset of the mental-rotation-related negativity at parietal electrodes. None clear effect was found for occipital N150. All these results suggested that the global rotation was not only processed faster than local rotation, but also occurred earlier than local rotation. Experiments 4 and 5 took the effect size of global advantage as the main dependent variable, and visual angle and exposure duration of the stimuli as independent variables, to examine the relationship between perceptual global precedence and global advantage on mental rotation. Results indicated that visual angle and exposure duration did not influence the effect size of global advantage on mental rotation. The global advantage on mental rotation and the perceptual global advantage seemed to be independent but their effects could be accumulated at some condition. These findings not only contribute to revealing a new processing property of mental rotation, but also deepen our understanding of the problem of global/local processing and shed light on the debate on locus of global precedence.

Self perceived health status of schizophrenic patients in Spain: an analysis of geog raphical differences using bayesian approach

Objectives. This paper explores the use of regression models for estimating health status of schizophrenic patients, from a Bayesian perspective. Our aims are: 1- To obtain a set of values of health states of the EQ-5D based on self-assessed health from a sample of schizophrenic patients. 2- To analyse the differences in the health status and in patients’ perceptions of their health status between four mental-health districts in Spain. Methods. We develop two linear models with dummy variables. The first model seeks to obtain an index of the health status of the patients using a VAS as a dependent variable and the different dimensions of EQ-5D as regressors. The second model allows to analyse the differences between the self-assessed health status in the different geographic areas and also the differences between the patients’ self-assessed health states, irrespective of their actual health state, in the different geographic areas. The analysis is done using Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling (computer program WinBUGS 1.4). Data concerning self-assessed EQ-5D with VAS from four geographic areas of schizophrenic patients were obtained for the purposes of this analysis. Results. We obtained the health status index for this sample and analysed the differences for this index between the four geographic areas. Our study reveals variables that explain the differences in patients’ health status and differences in their health states assessment. We consider four possible scenarios.

Postoperative statin use and risk of biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of statin use after radical prostatectomy (RP) on biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with prostate cancer who never received statins before RP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1146 RP patients within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to examine differences in risk of BCR between post-RP statin users vs nonusers. To account for varying start dates and duration of statin use during follow-up, post-RP statin use was treated as a time-dependent variable. In a secondary analysis, models were stratified by race to examine the association of post-RP statin use with BCR among black and non-black men. RESULTS: After adjusting for clinical and pathological characteristics, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with 36% reduced risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.87; P = 0.004). Post-RP statin use remained associated with reduced risk of BCR after adjusting for preoperative serum cholesterol levels. In secondary analysis, after stratification by race, this protective association was significant in non-black (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.32-0.75; P = 0.001) but not black men (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.53-1.28; P = 0.384). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective cohort of men undergoing RP, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of BCR. Whether the association between post-RP statin use and BCR differs by race requires further study. Given these findings, coupled with other studies suggesting that statins may reduce risk of advanced prostate cancer, randomised controlled trials are warranted to formally test the hypothesis that statins slow prostate cancer progression.

The effect of differences in methodology among some recent applications of shearing quotients.

A shearing quotient (SQ) is a way of quantitatively representing the Phase I shearing edges on a molar tooth. Ordinary or phylogenetic least squares regression is fit to data on log molar length (independent variable) and log sum of measured shearing crests (dependent variable). The derived linear equation is used to generate an 'expected' shearing crest length from molar length of included individuals or taxa. Following conversion of all variables to real space, the expected value is subtracted from the observed value for each individual or taxon. The result is then divided by the expected value and multiplied by 100. SQs have long been the metric of choice for assessing dietary adaptations in fossil primates. Not all studies using SQ have used the same tooth position or crests, nor have all computed regression equations using the same approach. Here we focus on re-analyzing the data of one recent study to investigate the magnitude of effects of variation in 1) shearing crest inclusion, and 2) details of the regression setup. We assess the significance of these effects by the degree to which they improve or degrade the association between computed SQs and diet categories. Though altering regression parameters for SQ calculation has a visible effect on plots, numerous iterations of statistical analyses vary surprisingly little in the success of the resulting variables for assigning taxa to dietary preference. This is promising for the comparability of patterns (if not casewise values) in SQ between studies. We suggest that differences in apparent dietary fidelity of recent studies are attributable principally to tooth position examined.

The application of electrostatic dry powder deposition technology to coat drug-eluting stents

Purpose: A novel methodology has been introduced to effectively coat intravascular stents with sirolimus-loaded polymeric microparticles. Methods: Dry powders of the microparticulate formulation, consisting of non-erodible polymers, were produced by a supercritical, aerosol, solvent extraction system (ASES). A design of experiment (DOE) approach was conducted on the independent variables, such as organic/CO2 phase volume ratio, polymer weight and stirring-rate, while regression analysis was utilized to interpret the influence of all operational parameters on the dependent variable of particle size. The dry powders, so formed, entered an electric field created by corona charging and were sprayed on the earthed metal stent. Furthermore, the thermal stability of sirolimus was investigated to define the optimum conditions for fusion to the metal surfaces. Results: The electrostatic dry powder deposition technology (EDPDT) was used on the metal strut followed by fusion to produce uniform, reproducible and accurate coatings. The coated stents exhibited sustained release profiles over 25 days, similar to commercial products. EDPDT-coated stents displayed significant reduced platelet adhesion. Conclusions: EDPDT appeared to be a robust accurate and reproducible technology to coat eluting stents.

Using a modified shepards method for optimization of a nanoparticulate cyclosporine a formulation prepared by a static mixer technique

An innovative methodology has been used for the formulation development of Cyclosporine A (CyA) nanoparticles. In the present study the static mixer technique, which is a novel method for producing nanoparticles, was employed. The formulation optimum was calculated by the modified Shepard's method (MSM), an advanced data analysis technique not adopted so far in pharmaceutical applications. Controlled precipitation was achieved injecting the organic CyA solution rapidly into an aqueous protective solution by means of a static mixer. Furthermore the computer based MSM was implemented for data analysis, visualization, and application development. For the optimization studies, the gelatin/lipoid S75 amounts and the organic/aqueous phase were selected as independent variables while the obtained particle size as a dependent variable. The optimum predicted formulation was characterized by cryo-TEM microscopy, particle size measurements, stability, and in vitro release. The produced nanoparticles contain drug in amorphous state and decreased amounts of stabilizing agents. The dissolution rate of the lyophilized powder was significantly enhanced in the first 2 h. MSM was proved capable to interpret in detail and to predict with high accuracy the optimum formulation. The mixer technique was proved capable to develop CyA nanoparticulate formulations.

Workplace violence and intentions to quit: results from a survey of London nurses

Study Objective: Work-place violence, harassment and abuse is an increasing feature of nurses’ experience of work in many countries. There is some evidence that the experience of workplace violence affects levels of job satisfaction (Hesketh et al 2003) and career decisions (e.g. Mayer et al 1999, Fernandes et al 1999). This paper reports on verbal and physical abuse by patients, relatives and carers, as well as racial and sexual harassment in Acute Hospitals in London and investigates whether workplace violence affects nurses’ intentions to leave either their current job or the nursing profession, controlling for a number of other factors that are known to affect career decisions, such as workload, pay and own health. Method: A questionnaire designed by two of the authors (Reeves and West) to assess many different aspects of nurses work life was used in a postal survey of nurses grades A to I practising in twenty London acute trusts in 2002. A total of 6,160 clinical nurses were mailed the questionnaires and 2,880 returned completed questionnaires, resulting in an overall response rate of 47%, discounting undelivered questionnaires. Respondents worked in a wide variety of clinical settings but mainly in acute medical and surgical wards. In addition to descriptive statistics, results were analysed using logistic regression with robust standard errors: the appropriate test when the dependent variable is dichotomous and the individual respondents clustered within units (nurses working within hospitals are not statistically independent). Results: Our results show high levels of racial (%), sexual (%) and other, unspecified forms of harassment (%), as well as verbal and physical abuse (14% had been physically assaulted with 5% being assaulted more than once), over the previous 6 months. A very small number (1%) reported experiencing all three forms of harassment; 12% two forms and 29% one form. Only 45% of this sample intended to stay in nursing for at least 3 years; 40% were undecided and 15% intended to leave. Logistic regression estimates showed that reported levels of abuse and harassment had a significant impact on respondents’ career intentions, even in models that controlled for known factors affecting career decisions. About 70% of our respondents reported that they had had too little training in dealing with aggressive behaviour—or none at all—but there was no statistical relationship between lack of training and reported assaults. Conclusions: The international shortage of health care workers is due at least in part to low retention rates. It is crucial to investigate nurses’ experiences of work to identify the factors that shape their career decisions. Workplace violence is increasingly acknowledged as an international, service-wide, health care problem. This paper adds to the literature that shows that workplace violence has an impact on nurses’ career decisions. The implications for managers and policy makers are that strengthening systems of security and providing nurses with training in interpersonal relationships including dealing with aggressive patients could slow nurse turnover.

Reduced vision in older adults with age related macular degeneration interferes with ability to care for self and impairs role as carer

Aim: To study the relation between visual impairment and ability to care for oneself or a dependant in older people with age related macular degeneration (AMD). Method: Cross sectional study of older people with visual impairment due to AMD in a specialised retinal service clinic. 199 subjects who underwent visual function assessment (fully corrected distance and near acuity and contrast sensitivity in both eyes), followed by completion of a package of questionnaires dealing with general health status (SF36), visual functioning (Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision, DLTV) and ability to care for self or provide care to others. The outcome measure was self reported ability to care for self and others. Three levels of self reported ability to care were identified—inability to care for self (level 1), ability to care for self but not others (level 2), and ability to care for self and others (level 3). Results: People who reported good general health status and visual functioning (that is, had high scores on SF36 and DLTV) were more likely to state that they were able to care for self and others. Similarly people with good vision in the better seeing eye were more likely to report ability to care for self and others. People with a distance visual acuity (DVA) worse than 0.4 logMAR (Snellen 6/15) had less than 50% probability of assigning themselves to care level 3 and those with DVA worse than 1.0 logMAR (Snellen 6/60) had a probability of greater than 50% or for assigning themselves to care level 1. Regression analyses with level of care as the dependent variable and demographic factors, DLTV subscales, and SF36 dimensions as the explanatory variables confirmed that the DLTV subscale 1 was the most important variable in the transition from care level 3 to care level 2. The regression analyses also confirmed that the DLTV subscale 2 was the most important in the transition from care level 3 to care level 1. Conclusions: Ability to care for self and dependants has a strong relation with self reported visual functioning and quality of life and is adversely influenced by visual impairment. The acuity at which the balance of probability shifts in the direction of diminished ability to care for self or others is lower than the level set by social care agencies for provision of support. These findings have implications for those involved with visual rehabilitation and for studies of the cost effectiveness of interventions in AMD.

Semiclassical treatment of Wannier's theory when the exponent diverges

We consider a non-standard application of the Wannier model. A physical example is the single ionization of a hydrogenic beryllium ion with a fully stripped beryllium ion, where the ratio of the charge of the third particle to the charges of the escaping particles is 1/4; we investigate the single ionization by an electron of an atom comprising an electron and a nucleus of charge 1/4. An infinite exponent is obtained suggesting that this process is not tractable within the Wannier model. A modified version of Crothers' uniform semiclassical wavefunction for the outgoing particles has been adopted, since the Wannier exponents and are infinite for an effective charge of Z = 1/4. We use Bessel functions to describe the Peterkop functions u and u and derive a new turning point ?. Since u is well behaved at infinity, there exists only the singularity in u at infinity, thus we employ a one- (rather than two-) dimensional change of dependent variable, ensuring that a uniform solution is obtained that avoids semiclassical breakdown on the Wannier ridge. The regularized final-state asymptotic wavefunction is employed, along with a continuum-distorted-wave approximation for the initial-state wavefunction to obtain total cross sections on an absolute scale. © 2006 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Information disclosure and depositor discipline in the Chinese banking sector

We investigate the relationship between information disclosure and depositor behaviour in the Chinese banking sector. Specifically, we enquire whether enhanced information disclosure enables investors to more effectively infer a banking institution's risk profile, thereby influencing their deposit decisions. Utilising an unbalanced panel, incorporating financial data from 169 Chinese banks over the 1998–2009 period, we employ generalised-method-of-moments (GMM) estimation procedures to control for potential endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and persistence in the dependent variable. We uncover evidence that: (i) the growth rate of deposits is sensitive to bank fundamentals after controlling for macroeconomic factors, diversity in ownership structure, and government intervention; (ii) a bank publicly disclosing more transparent information in its financial reports, is more likely to experience growth in its deposit base; and (iii) banks characterised by high information transparency, well-capitalised and adopted international accounting standards, are more able to attract funds by offering higher interest rates.