855 resultados para Decision-analysis


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To develop an understanding of stock structure and recruitment variation in Bering Sea pollock, the Coastal Ocean Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) funded an 7-year (1991-1997), interdisciplinary project named Bering Sea Fisheries-Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (BS FOCI; Schumacher and Kendall, 1995) for which NOAA and academic researchers were selected through a competitive process (Macklin, this report). The project goals, based on recommendations from an international symposium on pollock (Aron and Balsiger, 1989) were to (1) determine stock structure in the Bering Sea and its potential relationship to physical oceanography, and (2) examine recruitment processes in the eastern Bering Sea. Both of these have direct implication to management. An integrated set of field, laboratory, and modeling studies were established to accomplish these goals. To address the first goal, project objectives were to establish details of oceanic circulation relevant to larval dispersal and separation of stocks, and determine if unique chemical or genetic indicators existed for different stocks. The recruitment component of BS FOCI, addressing the second goal, focused on understanding causes of variable mortality of pollock larvae in the different habitats of the eastern Bering Sea. The emphasis of recruitment studies was to determine the dominant physical oceanographic features (turbulence, temperature, and transport) that could influence survival of pollock larvae, and investigate factors controlling food production for the larvae. A later component contrasted juvenile habitat in three hydrographic regimes around the Pribilof Islands (Brodeur, this report).

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Seagrass ecosystems are protected under the federal "no-net-loss" policy for wetlands and form one of the most productive plant communities on the planet, performing important ecological functions. Seagrass beds have been recognized as a valuable resource critical to the health and function of coastal waters. Greater awareness and public education, however, is essential for conservation of this resource. Tremendous losses of this habitat have occurred as a result of development within the coastal zone. Disturbances usually kill seagrasses rapidly, and recovery is often comparatively slow. Mitigation to compensate for destruction of existing habitat usually follows when the agent of loss and responsible party are known. Compensation assumes that ecosystems can be made to order and, in essence, trades existing functional habitat for the promise of replacement habitat. While ~lant ingse agrass is not technically complex, there is no easy way to meet the goal of maintaining or increasing seagrass acreage. Rather, the entire process of planning, planting and monitoring requires attention to detail and does not lend itself to oversimplification.

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Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

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This report is the product of a panel of experts in the science of blooms of unicellular marine algae which can cause mass mortalities in a variety of marine organisms and cause illness and even death in humans who consume contaminated seafood. These phenomena are collectively termed harmful algal blooms or HABs for short. As a counterpart to recent assessments of the priorities for scientific research to understand the causes and behavior of HABs, this assessment addressed the management options for reducing their incidence and extent (prevention), actions that can quell or contain blooms (control), and steps to reduce the losses of resources or economic values and minimize human health risks (mitigation). This assessment is limited to an appraisal of scientific understanding, but also reflects consideration of information and perspectives provided by regional experts, agency managers and user constituencies during three regional meetings. The panel convened these meetings during the latter half of 1996 to solicit information and opinions from scientific experts, agency managers and user constituencies in Texas, Washington, and Florida. The panel's assessment limited its attention to those HABs that result in neurotoxic shellfish poisoning, paralytic shellfish poisoning, brown tides, amnesic shellfish poisoning, and aquaculture fish kills. This covers most, but certainly not all, HAB problems in the U.S.

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A significant fraction of the total nitrogen entering coastal and estuarine ecosystems along the eastern U.S. coast arises from atmospheric deposition; however, the exact role of atmospherically derived nitrogen in the decline of the health of coastal, estuarine, and inland waters is still uncertain. From the perspective of coastal ecosystem eutrophication, nitrogen compounds from the air, along with nitrogen from sewage, industrial effluent, and fertilizers, become a source of nutrients to the receiving ecosystem. Eutrophication, however, is only one of the detrimental impacts of the emission of nitrogen containing compounds to the atmosphere. Other adverse effects include the production of tropospheric ozone, acid deposition, and decreased visibility (photochemical smog). Assessments of the coastal eutrophication problem indicate that the atmospheric deposition loading is most important in the region extending from Albemarle/Parnlico Sounds to the Gulf of Maine; however, these assessments are based on model outputs supported by a meager amount of actual data. The data shortage is severe. The National Research Council specifically mentions the atmospheric role in its recent publication for the Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources, Priorities for Coastal Ecosystem Science (1994). It states that, "Problems associated with changes in the quantity and quality of inputs to coastal environments from runoff and atmospheric deposition are particularly important [to coastal ecosystem integrity]. These include nutrient loading from agriculture and fossil fuel combustion, habitat losses from eutrophication, widespread contamination by toxic materials, changes in riverborne sediment, and alteration of coastal hydrodynamics. "

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There is nothing mysterious about how coastal rivers, their estuaries, and their relationship with the sea all work to satisfy many of our greatest needs, including drinkable water, fish and shellfish, and soils essential for sustaining the production of food and fiber. Nor are the methods that have proved successful in the protection and restoration of watershed health difficult to understand. It is difficult, however, to imagine how we are to survive without healthy watersheds. Each watershed along California’s coast shows signs of increasing abuse from road construction and maintenance, livestock grazing, residential development, timber harvesting, and a dozen other human activities. In some cases whole streams have simply been wiped away. This document has been created to guide and support every person in the community, from homemaker to elected official, who wants her or his watershed to provide clean water, harvestable fish resources and other proof that life in the watershed cannot only be maintained but also enjoyed. It is based on years of experience with watershed protection and restoration in California. If citizen involvement is to be effective, it must draw not only on scientific knowledge but also on an understanding of how to translate individual views into commitments and capable group action. This guide briefly reviews the condition of California’s coastal watersheds, identifies the kinds of concerns that have led citizens to successful watershed protection efforts, explains why citizen, in addition to government, effort is essential for watershed protection and restoration to succeed, and puts in the reader’s hands both the technical and organizational “tools of the trade” in the hope that those who use this guide will be encouraged to join in efforts to make their watershed serve this and future generations better.

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This synthesis presents a science overview of the major forest management Issues involved in the recovery of anadromous salmonids affected by timber harvest in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The issues involve the components of ecosystem-based watershed management and how best to implement them, including how to: Design buffer zones to protect fish habitat while enabling economic timber production; Implement effective Best Management Practices (BMPs) to prevent nonpoint-source pollution; Develop watershed-level procedures across property boundaries to prevent cumulative impacts; Develop restoration procedures to contribute to recovery of ecosystem processes; and Enlist support of private landowners in watershed planning, protection, and restoration. Buffer zones, BMPs, cumulative impact prevention, and restoration are essential elements of what must be a comprehensive approach to habitat protection and restoration applied at the watershed level within a larger context of resource concerns in the river basin, species status under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and regional environmental and economic issues (Fig. ES. 1). This synthesis 1) reviews salmonid habitat requirements and potential effects of logging; 2) describes the technical foundation of forest practices and restoration; 3) analyzes current federal and non-federal forest practices; and 4) recommends required elements of comprehensive watershed management for recovery of anadromous salmonids.

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What Are ~umulat iveE ffects? Coastal managers now recognize that many of the most serious resource degradation problems have built up gradually as the combined outcome of numerous actions and choices which alone may have had relatively minor impacts. For example, alteration of essential habitat through wetland loss, degradation of water quality from nonpoint source pollution, and changes in salinity of estuarine waters from water diversion projects can be attributed to numerous small actions and choices. These incremental losses have broad spatial and temporal dimensions, resulting in the gradual alteration of structure and functioning of biophysical systems. In the environmental management field, the term "cumulative effects" is generally used to describe this phenomenon of changes in the environment that result from numerous, small-scale alterations.

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Professionals who are responsible for coastal environmental and natural resource planning and management have a need to become conversant with new concepts designed to provide quantitative measures of the environmental benefits of natural resources. These amenities range from beaches to wetlands to clean water and other assets that normally are not bought and sold in everyday markets. At all levels of government — from federal agencies to townships and counties — decisionmakers are being asked to account for the costs and benefits of proposed actions. To non-specialists, the tools of professional economists are often poorly understood and sometimes inappropriate for the problem at hand. This handbook is intended to bridge this gap. The most widely used organizing tool for dealing with natural and environmental resource choices is benefit-cost analysis — it offers a convenient way to carefully identify and array, quantitatively if possible, the major costs, benefits, and consequences of a proposed policy or regulation. The major strength of benefit-cost analysis is not necessarily the predicted outcome, which depends upon assumptions and techniques, but the process itself, which forces an approach to decision-making that is based largely on rigorous and quantitative reasoning. However, a major shortfall of benefit-cost analysis has been the difficulty of quantifying both benefits and costs of actions that impact environmental assets not normally, nor even regularly, bought and sold in markets. Failure to account for these assets, to omit them from the benefit-cost equation, could seriously bias decisionmaking, often to the detriment of the environment. Economists and other social scientists have put a great deal of effort into addressing this shortcoming by developing techniques to quantify these non-market benefits. The major focus of this handbook is on introducing and illustrating concepts of environmental valuation, among them Travel Cost models and Contingent Valuation. These concepts, combined with advances in natural sciences that allow us to better understand how changes in the natural environment influence human behavior, aim to address some of the more serious shortcomings in the application of economic analysis to natural resource and environmental management and policy analysis. Because the handbook is intended for non-economists, it addresses basic concepts of economic value such as willingness-to-pay and other tools often used in decision making such as costeffectiveness analysis, economic impact analysis, and sustainable development. A number of regionally oriented case studies are included to illustrate the practical application of these concepts and techniques.

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Professionals who are responsible for coastal environmental and natural resource planning and management have a need to become conversant with new concepts designed to provide quantitative measures of the environmental benefits of natural resources. These amenities range from beaches to wetlands to clean water and other assets that normally are not bought and sold in everyday markets. At all levels of government — from federal agencies to townships and counties — decisionmakers are being asked to account for the costs and benefits of proposed actions. To non-specialists, the tools of professional economists are often poorly understood and sometimes inappropriate for the problem at hand. This handbook is intended to bridge this gap. The most widely used organizing tool for dealing with natural and environmental resource choices is benefit-cost analysis — it offers a convenient way to carefully identify and array, quantitatively if possible, the major costs, benefits, and consequences of a proposed policy or regulation. The major strength of benefit-cost analysis is not necessarily the predicted outcome, which depends upon assumptions and techniques, but the process itself, which forces an approach to decision-making that is based largely on rigorous and quantitative reasoning. However, a major shortfall of benefit-cost analysis has been the difficulty of quantifying both benefits and costs of actions that impact environmental assets not normally, nor even regularly, bought and sold in markets. Failure to account for these assets, to omit them from the benefit-cost equation, could seriously bias decisionmaking, often to the detriment of the environment. Economists and other social scientists have put a great deal of effort into addressing this shortcoming by developing techniques to quantify these non-market benefits. The major focus of this handbook is on introducing and illustrating concepts of environmental valuation, among them Travel Cost models and Contingent Valuation. These concepts, combined with advances in natural sciences that allow us to better understand how changes in the natural environment influence human behavior, aim to address some of the more serious shortcomings in the application of economic analysis to natural resource and environmental management and policy analysis. Because the handbook is intended for non-economists, it addresses basic concepts of economic value such as willingness-to-pay and other tools often used in decision making such as costeffectiveness analysis, economic impact analysis, and sustainable development. A number of regionally oriented case studies are included to illustrate the practical application of these concepts and techniques.

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This compilation of references to works which synthesize information on coastal topics is intended to be useful to resource managers in decision making processes. However, the utility must be understand in terms of its limited coverage. The bibliography is not inclusive of all the published materials on the topics selected. Coverage is clearly defined in the following paragraph. The time span of the bibliography is limited to references that were published from I983 to 1993, except for a last-minute addition of a few 1994 publications. All searches were done in mid- to late-1993. The bibliography was compiled from searches done on the following DIALOG electronic databases: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts, BlOSlS Previews, Dissertation Abstracts Online, Life Sciences Collection, NTlS (National Technical lnformation Service), Oceanic Abstracts, Pollution Abstracts, SciSearch, and Water Resources Abstracts. In addition, two NOAA electronic datases were searched: the NOAA Library and lnformation Catalog and the NOAA Sea Grant Depository Database. Synthesis of information is not an ubiquitous term used in database development. In order to locate syntheses of required coastal topics, 89 search terms were used in combinations which required 10 searches from each file. From the nearly 6,000 citations which resulted from the electronic searches, the most appropriate were selected to produce this bibliography. The document was edited and indexed using Wordperfect software. When available, an abstract has been included. Every abstract was edited. The bibliography is subdivided into four main topics or sections: ecosystems, coastal water body conditions, natural disasters, and resource management. In the ecosystems section, emphasis is placed on organisms in their environment on the major coastlines of the U.S. In the second section, coastal water body conditions, the environment itself is emphasized. References were found for the Alaskan coast, but none were found for Hawaii. The third section, on natural disasters, emphasizes environmental impacts resulting from natural phenomena. Guidelines, planning and management reports, modelling documents, strategic and restoration plans, and environmental economics related to sustainability are included in the fourth section, resource management. Author, geographic, and subject indices indices are provided. The authors would like to thank Victor Omelczenko and Terry Seldon of the NOAA Sea Grant Office for access to and training on the NOAA Sea Grant Depository Database. We are grateful also to Dorothy Anderson, Philip Keavey, and Elizabeth Petersen who reviewed the draft document.

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Extensive losses of coastal wetlands in the United States caused by sea-level rise, land subsidence, erosion, and coastal development have increased hterest in the creation of salt marshes within estuaries. Smooth cordgrass Spartina altemiflora is the species utilized most for salt marsh creation and restoration throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the U.S., while S. foliosa and Salicomia virginica are often used in California. Salt marshes have many valuable functions such as protecting shorelines from erosion, stabilizing deposits of dredged material, dampening flood effects, trapping water-born sediments, serving as nutrient reservoirs, acting as tertiary water treatment systems to rid coastal waters of contaminants, serving as nurseries for many juvenile fish and shellfish species, and serving as habitat for various wildlife species (Kusler and Kentula 1989). The establishment of vegetation in itself is generally sufficient to provide the functions of erosion control, substrate stabilization, and sediment trapping. The development of other salt marsh functions, however, is more difficult to assess. For example, natural estuarine salt marshes support a wide variety of fish and shellfish, and the abundance of coastal marshes has been correlated with fisheries landings (Turner 1977, Boesch and Turner 1984). Marshes function for aquatic species by providing breeding areas, refuges from predation, and rich feeding grounds (Zimmerman and Minello 1984, Boesch and Turner 1984, Kneib 1984, 1987, Minello and Zimmerman 1991). However, the relative value of created marshes versus that of natural marshes for estuarine animals has been questioned (Carnmen 1976, Race and Christie 1982, Broome 1989, Pacific Estuarine Research Laboratory 1990, LaSalle et al. 1991, Minello and Zimmerman 1992, Zedler 1993). Restoration of all salt marsh functions is necessary to prevent habitat creation and restoration activities from having a negative impact on coastal ecosystems.

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The summer flounder, Paralichthys dentatus, is overexploited and is currently at very low levels of abundance. This is reflected in the compressed age structure of the population and the low catches in both commercial and recreational fisheries. Declining habitat quantity and quality may be contributing to these declines, however we lack a thorough understanding of the role of habitats in the population dynamics of this species. Stock structure is unresolved and current interpretations, depending on the technique and study area, suggest that there may be two or three spawning populations. If so, these stocks may have differing habitat requirements. In response to this lack of knowledge, this document summarizes and synthesizes the available information on summer flounder habitat in all life history stages (eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults) and identifies areas where further research is needed. Several levels of investigation were conducted in order to produce this document. First, an extensive search for summer flounder habitat information was made, which included both the primary and gray literature as well as unanalyzed data. Second, state and federal fisheries biologists and resource managers in all states within the primary range of summer flounder (Massachusetts to Florida) were interviewed along with a number of fish ecologists and summer flounder experts from the academic and private sectors. Finally, information from all sources was analyzed and synthesized to form a coherent overview. This document first presents an overview of the economic importance and current status of summer flounder (Chapter 1). It then summarizes our present state of knowledge of summer flounder distribution, life history patterns and stock identification (Chapter 2). This is followed by a synopsis of habitat requirements during each life history stage. For convenience, this is presented by general habitat as offshore eggs (Chapter 3), offshore larvae (Chapter 4), estuarine larvae (Chapter 5), estuarine juveniles (Chapter 6), offshore juveniles (Chapter 7) and estuarine and offshore adults (Chapter 8). In several instances, previously undigested data sets are analyzed to provide more detailed information, especially for estuarine juveniles. The information is then discussed in terms of its relevance to resource managers (Chapter 9).

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水库建设方案的评价,涉及投入和效益两方面。投入包括资金和工期等,称为“输入”:效益包括工农业用水增加、防洪能力强增等。称为“输出”。分析这种多输入,多输出的系统,应用数据包络分析方法是非常有效的。

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The quality of advertising copy is an important component of advertising service. An advertising system with only copy design and production but without evaluation is imperfect. Establishing an evaluation system of television advertising copy is the principal purpose of the present work. In terms of consumer behavior, the work focused on consumers' evaluation-in-general of T commercials. The research consisted of three subprograms. The first subprogrom was associated with the basic factors in the evaluation of television advertising copy. The second one was related to the relative importance of those basic factors. The last one was related to the way in which the consumers' synthetic evaluation of copy under multidimensions. These subprogram composed the evaluation system of television advertising copy. In the study of the first subprogram, by the use of a variaty of "multistage evaluation scale", a survey into consumers' evaluation-in-general of television ads was made, which obtained five factors, namely, credibility, attractiveness, suitability, cognition and affect impact, through factor analysis (Cum.Pct. = 56.2%, α = 0.84). The study of second subprogram acquired their relative weights by a popular method of weight in the area of decision analysis, the result was as followings: credibility-0.27, attractiveness-0.24, suitability-0.18, affect impact-0.16, cognition-0.15; and fanally, under the condition of quasi-experiment, the third studyestablished a mathematical model of the synthetic evaluation of television ad copy, which was expressed as O = ΣF * W, through a "synthetical" method of multidimensional decision making.