Evaluating the probability and the impact of a failure in GMPLS based networks

In this paper, we define a new scheme to develop and evaluate protection strategies for building reliable GMPLS networks. This is based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). The NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability, and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), which determines the impact on the network in case of failure, in terms of packet loss and recovery time. Having mathematical formulated these components, experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms in order to offer a certain degree of protection

Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation

Probability distribution of the radionuclide half-lives

Power law distributions, a well-known model in the theory of real random variables, characterize a wide variety of natural and man made phenomena. The intensity of earthquakes, the word frequencies, the solar ares and the sizes of power outages are distributed according to a power law distribution. Recently, given the usage of power laws in the scientific community, several articles have been published criticizing the statistical methods used to estimate the power law behaviour and establishing new techniques to their estimation with proven reliability. The main object of the present study is to go in deep understanding of this kind of distribution and its analysis, and introduce the half-lives of the radioactive isotopes as a new candidate in the nature following a power law distribution, as well as a \canonical laboratory" to test statistical methods appropriate for long-tailed distributions.

The quality of primary care in a country with universal health care coverage

Cet article a été réalisé dans le but d'évaluer la qualité des soins fournie à une population âgée de 50 à 80 ans suivie dans 4 policliniques médicales universitaires de Suisse, à savoir Bâle, Zurich, Genève et Lausanne. Nous avons sélectionné 37 indicateurs de qualité qui ont été développés et préalablement évalués au Etats-Unis. Ces indicateurs ont été divisés en 2 sous-groupes distincts : les indicateurs de prévention et les indicateurs concernant les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaires.¦L'étude a inclus des patients âgés de 50 à 80 ans avec un suivi d'un minimum de 1 an par un médecin dans l'une des policliniques de Suisse. Nous avons limité notre étude à ce groupe d'âge, afin d'avoir une prévalence élevée de facteur de risque cardiovasculaire et plus d'indications à des tests de dépistages. Les dossiers médicaux des patients ont été sélectionnés selon un mode aléatoire en prenant 250 dossiers par centre.¦L'enjeu principal de cette étude était de déterminer le niveau de soins fournis en Suisse dans les policliniques médicales universitaires. Il a été également possible de mettre en évidence les secteurs de prévention pour lesquels le taux d'application est encore insuffisant. Nous avons par la même occasion comparé nos résultats à ceux obtenus aux Etats-Unis, sachant que ce pays a un système d'évaluation de la qualité des soins qui fournit chaque années des statistiques à ce sujet.¦Les résultats de notre étude montrent qu'en Suisse les adultes reçoivent 69% des mesures de prévention recommandées mais que ces taux diffèrent d'un indicateur à l'autre. Les indicateurs à propos de la tension artérielle et de la mesure du poids (les 2 95%) ont plus souvent été réalisés durant les consultations que les indicateurs concernant l'arrêt du tabagisme (72%), les cancers du sein (40%), du colon (35%) et la vaccination annuelle contre la grippe (35.2% chez les patients de >65 ans et 29.3% chez les patient de <65 ans avec une maladie chronique). 83% des patients reçoivent les mesures préventives concernant les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire, avec >75% pour l'hypertension, le diabète et la dyslipidémie. Cependant, l'examen des pieds est effectué chez seulement 50% des patients présentant un diabète.¦De même, nous avons pu démontrer que les femmes (65.3%) et les personnes âgées de plus de 65 ans (68.0%) reçoivent moins de mesures préventives que les hommes (72.2%) et les personnes plus jeunes (70.1%).¦Ce travail de recherche a donc permis de mettre en évidence les domaines de la prévention encore insuffisamment proposés aux patients et de rendre attentif le personnel médical sur le fait qu'il existe en Suisse des groupes de personnes qui reçoivent moins de prévention que d'autres groupes. Dans le futur, l'accent devrait être d'avantage mis durant les études de médecine et lors de la formation post-graduée sur les mesures préventives pas assez exploitées en Suisse en particulier le dépistage des cancers et la vaccination annuelle contre la grippe.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Impact of inadequate empirical therapy on the mortality of patients with bloodstream infections: a propensity score-based analysis.

The impact of the adequacy of empirical therapy on outcome for patients with bloodstream infections (BSI) is key for determining whether adequate empirical coverage should be prioritized over other, more conservative approaches. Recent systematic reviews outlined the need for new studies in the field, using improved methodologies. We assessed the impact of inadequate empirical treatment on the mortality of patients with BSI in the present-day context, incorporating recent methodological recommendations. A prospective multicenter cohort including all BSI episodes in adult patients was performed in 15 hospitals in Andalucía, Spain, over a 2-month period in 2006 to 2007. The main outcome variables were 14- and 30-day mortality. Adjusted analyses were performed by multivariate analysis and propensity score-based matching. Eight hundred one episodes were included. Inadequate empirical therapy was administered in 199 (24.8%) episodes; mortality at days 14 and 30 was 18.55% and 22.6%, respectively. After controlling for age, Charlson index, Pitt score, neutropenia, source, etiology, and presentation with severe sepsis or shock, inadequate empirical treatment was associated with increased mortality at days 14 and 30 (odds ratios [ORs], 2.12 and 1.56; 95% confidence intervals [95% CI], 1.34 to 3.34 and 1.01 to 2.40, respectively). The adjusted ORs after a propensity score-based matched analysis were 3.03 and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.60 to 5.74 and 0.98 to 2.98, respectively). In conclusion, inadequate empirical therapy is independently associated with increased mortality in patients with BSI. Programs to improve the quality of empirical therapy in patients with suspicion of BSI and optimization of definitive therapy should be implemented.

Tibial component positioning in total knee arthroplasty: bone coverage and extensor apparatus alignment.

Correct positioning of the tibial component in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) must take into account both an optimal bone coverage (defined by a maximal cortical bearing with posteromedial and anterolateral support) and satisfactory patellofemoral tracking. Consequently, a compromise position must be found by the surgeon during the operation to simultaneously meet these two requirements. Moreover, tibial tray positioning depends upon the tibial torsion, which has been shown to act mainly in the proximal quarter of the tibia. Therefore, the correct application of the tibial tray is also theoretically related to the level of bone resection. In this study, we first quantified the torsional profile given by an optimal bone coverage for a symmetrical tibial tray design and for an asymmetrical one. Then, for the two types of tibial trays, we measured the angle difference between optimal bone coverage and an alignment on the middle of the tibial tubercule. Results showed that the values of the torsional profile given by the symmetrical tray were more scattered than those from the asymmetrical one. However, determination of the mean differential angle between the position providing optimal bone coverage and the one providing the best patellofemoral tracking indicated that the symmetrical prosthetic tray offered the best compromise between these two requirements. Although the tibiofemoral joint is known to be asymmetric in both shape and dimension, the asymmetrical tray chosen in this study was found to fulfill this compromise with more difficulty.

Estimating national-level syringe availability to injecting drug users and injection coverage: Switzerland, 1996-2006.

BACKGROUND: Measuring syringe availability and coverage is essential in the assessment of HIV/AIDS risk reduction policies. Estimates of syringe availability and coverage were produced for the years 1996 and 2006, based on all relevant available national-level aggregated data from published sources. METHODS: We defined availability as the total monthly number of syringes provided by harm reduction system divided by the estimated number of injecting drug users (IDU), and defined coverage as the proportion of injections performed with a new syringe, at national level (total supply over total demand). Estimates of supply of syringes were derived from the national monitoring system, including needle and syringe programmes (NSP), pharmacies, and medically prescribed heroin programmes. Estimates of syringe demand were based on the number of injections performed by IDU derived from surveys of low threshold facilities for drug users (LTF) with NSP combined with the number of IDU. This number was estimated by two methods combining estimates of heroin users (multiple estimation method) and (a) the number of IDU in methadone treatment (MT) (non-injectors) or (b) the proportion of injectors amongst LTF attendees. Central estimates and ranges were obtained for availability and coverage. RESULTS: The estimated number of IDU decreased markedly according to both methods. The MT-based method (from 14,818 to 4809) showed a much greater decrease and smaller size of the IDU population compared to the LTF-based method (from 24,510 to 12,320). Availability and coverage estimates are higher with the MT-based method. For 1996, central estimates of syringe availability were 30.5 and 18.4 per IDU per month; for 2006, they were 76.5 and 29.9. There were 4 central estimates of coverage. For 1996 they ranged from 24.3% to 43.3%, and for 2006, from 50.5% to 134.3%. CONCLUSION: Although 2006 estimates overlap 1996 estimates, the results suggest a shift to improved syringe availability and coverage over time.

Optimization of floor cleaning coverage performance of a random path-planning mobile robot

Floor cleaning is a typical robot application. There are several mobile robots aviable in the market for domestic applications most of them with random path-planning algorithms. In this paper we study the cleaning coverage performances of a random path-planning mobile robot and propose an optimized control algorithm, some methods to estimate the are of the room, the evolution of the cleaning and the time needed for complete coverage.

Probabilistic base calling of Solexa sequencing data.

BACKGROUND: Solexa/Illumina short-read ultra-high throughput DNA sequencing technology produces millions of short tags (up to 36 bases) by parallel sequencing-by-synthesis of DNA colonies. The processing and statistical analysis of such high-throughput data poses new challenges; currently a fair proportion of the tags are routinely discarded due to an inability to match them to a reference sequence, thereby reducing the effective throughput of the technology. RESULTS: We propose a novel base calling algorithm using model-based clustering and probability theory to identify ambiguous bases and code them with IUPAC symbols. We also select optimal sub-tags using a score based on information content to remove uncertain bases towards the ends of the reads. CONCLUSION: We show that the method improves genome coverage and number of usable tags as compared with Solexa's data processing pipeline by an average of 15%. An R package is provided which allows fast and accurate base calling of Solexa's fluorescence intensity files and the production of informative diagnostic plots.

Support for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Requirements among US Healthcare Personnel.

Objective. To measure support for seasonal influenza vaccination requirements among US healthcare personnel (HCP) and its associations with attitudes regarding influenza and influenza vaccination and self-reported coverage by existing vaccination requirements. Design. Between June 1 and June 30, 2010, we surveyed a sample of US HCP ([Formula: see text]) recruited using an existing probability-based online research panel of participants representing the US general population as a sampling frame. Setting. General community. Participants. Eligible HCP who (1) reported having worked as medical doctors, health technologists, healthcare support staff, or other health practitioners or who (2) reported having worked in hospitals, ambulatory care facilities, long-term care facilities, or other health-related settings. Methods. We analyzed support for seasonal influenza vaccination requirements for HCP using proportion estimation and multivariable probit models. Results. A total of 57.4% (95% confidence interval, 53.3%-61.5%) of US HCP agreed that HCP should be required to be vaccinated for seasonal influenza. Support for mandatory vaccination was statistically significantly higher among HCP who were subject to employer-based influenza vaccination requirements, who considered influenza to be a serious disease, and who agreed that influenza vaccine was safe and effective. Conclusions. A majority of HCP support influenza vaccination requirements. Moreover, providing HCP with information about the safety of influenza vaccination and communicating that immunization of HCP is a patient safety issue may be important for generating staff support for influenza vaccination requirements.

Influence of the Premium Subsidy on Farmers’ Crop Insurance Coverage Decisions, April 2005

The Agricultural Risk Protection Act greatly increased the expected marginal net benefit of farmers buying high-coverage crop insurance policies by coupling premium subsidies to coverage level. This policy change, combined with cross-sectional variations in expected marginal net benefits of high-coverage policies, is used to estimate the role that premium subsidies play in farmers’ crop insurance decisions. We use county data for corn, soybeans, and wheat to estimate regression equations that are then used to obtain insight into two policy scenarios. We first estimate that eventual adoption of actuarially fair incremental premiums, combined with current coupled subsidies, would increase farmers’ purchase of high-coverage policies by almost 400 percent from 1998 levels across the three crops and two plans of insurance included in the analysis. We then estimate that a return to decoupled subsidies would decrease farmers’ high-coverage purchase decisions by an average of 36 percent.

Outage probability analysis for MRC in η-μ fading channels with co-channel interference

Exact closed-form expressions are obtained for the outage probability of maximal ratio combining in η-μ fadingchannels with antenna correlation and co-channel interference. The scenario considered in this work assumes the joint presence of background white Gaussian noise and independent Rayleigh-faded interferers with arbitrary powers. Outage probability results are obtained through an appropriate generalization of the moment-generating function of theη-μ fading distribution, for which new closed-form expressions are provided.

The political economy of childcare in OECD countries : Explaining cross-national variation in spending and coverage rates

If childcare policy has become topical in most OECD countries over the last ten years or so, actual developments display huge cross-national variations. Countries like Sweden and Denmark spend around 2 per cent of GDP on this service, and provide affordable childcare places to most children below school age. At the other extreme, in Southern Europe, only around 10 per cent of this age group has access to formal daycare. Against this background, this article aims to account for cross-national variations in childcare services. It distinguishes two dependent variables: the coverage rate and the proportion of GDP spent subsidising childcare services. Using a mix of cross-sectional and pooled times-series methods, it tests a series of hypotheses concerning the determinants of the development of this policy. Its main conclusion for the coverage rate is that key factors are public spending and wage dispersion (both positive). For spending, key factors are the proportion of women in parliaments (positive) and spending on age-related policies (negative).