Comparative productivity of irrigated short-term ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) pasture receiving nitrogen, grown alone or in a mixture with white (Trifolium repens) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers

Dairy farms in subtropical Australia use irrigated, annually sown short-term ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) or mixtures of short-term ryegrass and white (Trifolium repens) and Persian (shaftal) (T. resupinatum) clover during the winter-spring period in all-year-round milk production systems. A series of small plot cutting experiments was conducted in 3 dairying regions (tropical upland, north Queensland, and subtropical southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales) to determine the most effective rate and frequency of application of nitrogen (N) fertiliser. The experiments were not grazed, nor was harvested material returned to the plots, after sampling. Rates up to 100 kg N/ha.month (as urea or calcium ammonium nitrate) and up to 200 kg N/ha every 2 months (as urea) were applied to pure stands of ryegrass in 1991. In 1993 and 1994, urea, at rates up to 150 kg N/ha.month and to 200 kg N/ha every 2 months, was applied to pure stands of ryegrass; urea, at rates up to 50 kg N/ha.month, was also applied to ryegrass-clover mixtures. The results indicate that applications of 50-85 kg N/ha.month can be recommended for short-term ryegrass pastures throughout the subtropics and tropical uplands of eastern Australia, irrespective of soil type. At this rate, dry matter yields will reach about 90% of their potential, forage nitrogen concentration will be increased, there is minimal risk to stock from nitrate poisoning and there will be no substantial increase in soil N. The rate of N for ryegrass-clover pastures is slightly higher than for pure ryegrass but, at these rates, the clover component will be suppressed. However, increased ryegrass yields and higher forage nitrogen concentrations will compensate for the reduced clover component. At application rates up to 100 kg N/ha.month, build-up of NO3--N and NH4+-N in soil was generally restricted to the surface layers (0-20 cm) of the soil, but there was a substantial increase throughout the soil profile at 150 kg N/ha.month. The build-up of NO3--N and NH4+-N was greater and was found at lower rates on the lighter soil compared with heavy clays. Generally, most of the soil N was in the NO3--N form and most was in the top 20 cm.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

An integrated approach for distributed energy resource short term scheduling in smart grids considering realistic power system simulation

The large increase of distributed energy resources, including distributed generation, storage systems and demand response, especially in distribution networks, makes the management of the available resources a more complex and crucial process. With wind based generation gaining relevance, in terms of the generation mix, the fact that wind forecasting accuracy rapidly drops with the increase of the forecast anticipation time requires to undertake short-term and very short-term re-scheduling so the final implemented solution enables the lowest possible operation costs. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource scheduling in smart grids, considering day ahead, hour ahead and five minutes ahead scheduling. The short-term scheduling, undertaken five minutes ahead, takes advantage of the high accuracy of the very-short term wind forecasting providing the user with more efficient scheduling solutions. The proposed method uses a Genetic Algorithm based approach for optimization that is able to cope with the hard execution time constraint of short-term scheduling. Realistic power system simulation, based on PSCAD , is used to validate the obtained solutions. The paper includes a case study with a 33 bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources implemented in PSCAD .

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Verbal ability, previous practice and load on short-term memory as determiners of differences in a complex learning task: an experimental study

Traditional psychometric theory and practice classify people according to broad ability dimensions but do not examine how these mental processes occur. Hunt and Lansman (1975) proposed a 'distributed memory' model of cognitive processes with emphasis on how to describe individual differences based on the assumption that each individual possesses the same components. It is in the quality of these components ~hat individual differences arise. Carroll (1974) expands Hunt's model to include a production system (after Newell and Simon, 1973) and a response system. He developed a framework of factor analytic (FA) factors for : the purpose of describing how individual differences may arise from them. This scheme is to be used in the analysis of psychometric tes ts . Recent advances in the field of information processing are examined and include. 1) Hunt's development of differences between subjects designated as high or low verbal , 2) Miller's pursuit of the magic number seven, plus or minus two, 3) Ferguson's examination of transfer and abilities and, 4) Brown's discoveries concerning strategy teaching and retardates . In order to examine possible sources of individual differences arising from cognitive tasks, traditional psychometric tests were searched for a suitable perceptual task which could be varied slightly and administered to gauge learning effects produced by controlling independent variables. It also had to be suitable for analysis using Carroll's f ramework . The Coding Task (a symbol substitution test) found i n the Performance Scale of the WISe was chosen. Two experiments were devised to test the following hypotheses. 1) High verbals should be able to complete significantly more items on the Symbol Substitution Task than low verbals (Hunt, Lansman, 1975). 2) Having previous practice on a task, where strategies involved in the task may be identified, increases the amount of output on a similar task (Carroll, 1974). J) There should be a sUbstantial decrease in the amount of output as the load on STM is increased (Miller, 1956) . 4) Repeated measures should produce an increase in output over trials and where individual differences in previously acquired abilities are involved, these should differentiate individuals over trials (Ferguson, 1956). S) Teaching slow learners a rehearsal strategy would improve their learning such that their learning would resemble that of normals on the ,:same task. (Brown, 1974). In the first experiment 60 subjects were d.ivided·into high and low verbal, further divided randomly into a practice group and nonpractice group. Five subjects in each group were assigned randomly to work on a five, seven and nine digit code throughout the experiment. The practice group was given three trials of two minutes each on the practice code (designed to eliminate transfer effects due to symbol similarity) and then three trials of two minutes each on the actual SST task . The nonpractice group was given three trials of two minutes each on the same actual SST task . Results were analyzed using a four-way analysis of variance . In the second experiment 18 slow learners were divided randomly into two groups. one group receiving a planned strategy practioe, the other receiving random practice. Both groups worked on the actual code to be used later in the actual task. Within each group subjects were randomly assigned to work on a five, seven or nine digit code throughout. Both practice and actual tests consisted on three trials of two minutes each. Results were analyzed using a three-way analysis of variance . It was found in t he first experiment that 1) high or low verbal ability by itself did not produce significantly different results. However, when in interaction with the other independent variables, a difference in performance was noted . 2) The previous practice variable was significant over all segments of the experiment. Those who received previo.us practice were able to score significantly higher than those without it. J) Increasing the size of the load on STM severely restricts performance. 4) The effect of repeated trials proved to be beneficial. Generally, gains were made on each successive trial within each group. S) In the second experiment, slow learners who were allowed to practice randomly performed better on the actual task than subjeots who were taught the code by means of a planned strategy. Upon analysis using the Carroll scheme, individual differences were noted in the ability to develop strategies of storing, searching and retrieving items from STM, and in adopting necessary rehearsals for retention in STM. While these strategies may benef it some it was found that for others they may be harmful . Temporal aspects and perceptual speed were also found to be sources of variance within individuals . Generally it was found that the largest single factor i nfluencing learning on this task was the repeated measures . What e~ables gains to be made, varies with individuals . There are environmental factors, specific abilities, strategy development, previous learning, amount of load on STM , perceptual and temporal parameters which influence learning and these have serious implications for educational programs .

Methods for short-term control of Imperata grass in Peruvian Amazon

The traditional control of Imperata brasiliensis grasslands used by farmers in the Peruvian Amazon is to burn the grass. The objective of this study was to compare different methods of short-term control. Biological, mechanical, chemical and traditional methods of control were compared. Herbicide spraying and manual weeding have shown to be very effective in reducing above- and below-ground biomass growth in the first 45 days after slashing the grass, with effects persisting in the longer term, but both are expensive methods. Shading seems to be less effective in the short-term, whereas it influences the Imperata growth in the longer term. After one year shading, glyphosate application and weeding significantly reduced aboveground biomass by 94, 67 and 53%; and belowground biomass by 76, 65 and 58%, respectively, compared to control. We also found a significant decrease of Imperata rhizomes in soil during time under shading. Burning has proved to have no significant effect on Imperata growth. The use of shade trees in a kind of agroforestry system could be a suitable method for small farmers to control Imperata grasslands.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Short-term creatine supplementation decreases reactive oxygen species content with no changes in expression and activity of antioxidant enzymes in skeletal muscle

The effect of short-term creatine (Cr) supplementation upon content of skeletal muscle-derived-reactive oxygen species (ROS) was investigated. Wistar rats were supplemented with Cr (5 g/kg BW) or vehicle, by gavage, for 6 days. Soleus and extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscles were removed and incubated for evaluation of ROS content using Amplex-UltraRed reagent. The analysis of expression and activity of antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase 1 and 2, catalase and glutathione peroxidase) were performed. Direct scavenger action of Cr on superoxide radical and hydrogen peroxide was also investigated. Short-term Cr supplementation attenuated ROS content in both soleus and EDL muscles (by 41 and 33.7%, respectively). Cr supplementation did not change expression and activity of antioxidant enzymes. Basal TBARS content was not altered by Cr supplementation. In cell-free experiments, Cr showed a scavenger effect on superoxide radical in concentrations of 20 and 40 mM, but not on hydrogen peroxide. These results indicate that Cr supplementation decreases ROS content in skeletal muscle possibly due to a direct action of Cr molecule on superoxide radical.

The assessment of visual short-term memory in considering the underlying processes and their relation to psychometric intelligence

By means of fixed-links modeling the present study assessed processes involved in visual short-term memory functioning and investigates how these processes are related to intelligence. Using a color change detection task, short-term memory demands increased across three experimental conditions as a function of number of presented stimuli. We measured amount of information retained in visual short-term memory by hit rate as well as speed of visual short-term memory scanning by reaction time. For both measures, fixed-links modeling revealed a constant process reflecting processes irrespective of task manipulation as well as two increasing processes reflecting the increasing short-term memory demands. For visual short-term memory scanning, a negative association between intelligence and the constant process was found but no relationship between intelligence and the increasing processes. Thus, basic processing speed, rather than speed influenced by visual short-term memory demands, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. Intelligence was positively related to the experimental processes of shortterm memory retention but not to the constant process. In sum, significant associations with intelligence were only obtained when the specific processes of short-term memory were decomposed emphasizing the importance of a thorough assessment of cognitive processes when investigating their relation to intelligence.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Short-term spectral analysis of ODP Hole 114-704B

Short-term spectral analysis was carried out on geochemical logging data from ODP Site 704. The FFT was used to compute the amplitude spectra of short-term overlapping segments to produce depth-period-amplitude spectrograms of the logging data. The spectrograms provided a means of evaluating the significance of the observed periodic components. The periodic components that were consistently present and prominent across a given record interval were considered to be significant. Changes in the spectrogram characteristics seem to reflect changes in either lithology, sedimentation rates, or hiatuses and may therefore provide useful information to aid in stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental studies. The dominant periodicity during the late Pleistocene and Brunhes Chron (0.97 to 0.47 Ma) was determined to be > 100,000 yr whereas the upper Matuyama Chron was dominated by the 41,000-yr periodicity. These periodicities suggest that the sedimentation patterns within the upper Matuyama Chron (0.98-1.78 Ma) were influenced by the Milankovitch obliquity cycle and those within the latest Matuyama-Brunhes Chron (<0.98 Ma) by the eccentricity cycle. The Brunhes/Matuyama boundary therefore represents a major discontinuity. Periodicities observed within the lower Matuyama and the upper Gauss Chron did not correlate with any of the periodicities within the Milankovitch frequency bands.

Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

An experimental study of the effects of noise upon short term memory

The overall aim of this study was to examine experimentally the effects of noise upon short-term memory tasks in the hope of shedding further light upon the apparently inconsistent results of previous research in the area. Seven experiments are presented. The first chapter of the thesis comprised a comprehensive review of the literature on noise and human performance while in the second chapter some theoretical questions concerning the effects of noise were considered in more detail follovred by a more detailed examination of the effects of noise upon memory. Chapter 3 described an experiment which examined the effects of noise on attention allocation in short-term memory as a function of list length. The results provided only weak evidence of increased selectivity in noise. In further chapters no~effects Here investigated in conjunction vrith various parameters of short-term memory tasks e.g. the retention interval, presentation rate. The results suggested that noise effects were significantly affected by the length of the retention interval but not by the rate of presentation. Later chapters examined the possibility of differential noise effects on the mode of recall (recall v. recognition) and the type of presentation (sequential v. simultaneous) as well as an investigation of the effect of varying the point of introduction of the noise and the importance of individual differences in noise research. The results of this study were consistent with the hypothesis that noise at presentation facilitates phonemic coding. However, noise during recall appeared to affect the retrieval strategy adopted by the subject.

Forecasting the term structure when short-term rates are near zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short-term interest rates from October 2008. Out-of-sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium- to longer-term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near-zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson-Siegel models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Short Term Outcome of Neonates Born With Abnormal Umbilical Cord Arterial Blood Gases

Background: Umbilical arterial blood gas (UABG) analysis is more objective than other methods for predicting neonatal outcome. Acidemic neonates may be at risk for unfavorable outcome after birth, but all neonates with abnormal arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis do not always have poor outcome. Objectives: This study was carried out to determine the short term outcome of the neonates born with an abnormal ABG. Patients and Methods: In a cohort prospective study 120 high risk mother-neonate pairs were enrolled and UABG was taken immediately after birth. All neonates with an umbilical cord pH less than 7.2 were considered as case group and more than 7.2 as controls. Outcomes like need to resuscitation, admission to newborn services and/or NICU), seizure occurrence, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), delayed initiation of oral feeding and length of hospital stay were recorded and compared between the two groups. P value less than 0.05 was considered as being significant. Results: Comparison of short term outcomes between normal and abnormal ABG groups were as the fallowing: need for advanced resuscitation 4 vs. 0 (P = 0.001), NICU admission 16 vs. 4 (P = 0.001), convulsion 2 vs. 0 (P = 0.496), HIE 17 vs. 4 (P = 0.002), delay to start oral feeding 16 vs. 4 (P = 0.001), mean hospital stay 4 vs. 3 days (P = 0.001). None of the neonates died in study groups. Conclusions: An umbilical cord PH less than 7.2 immediately after birth can be used as a prognostic factor for unfavorable short term outcome in newborns.