Missing value imputation in longitudinal measures of alcohol consumption

Attrition in longitudinal studies can lead to biased results. The study is motivated by the unexpected observation that alcohol consumption decreased despite increased availability, which may be due to sample attrition of heavy drinkers. Several imputation methods have been proposed, but rarely compared in longitudinal studies of alcohol consumption. The imputation of consumption level measurements is computationally particularly challenging due to alcohol consumption being a semi-continuous variable (dichotomous drinking status and continuous volume among drinkers), and the non-normality of data in the continuous part. Data come from a longitudinal study in Denmark with four waves (2003-2006) and 1771 individuals at baseline. Five techniques for missing data are compared: Last value carried forward (LVCF) was used as a single, and Hotdeck, Heckman modelling, multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE), and a Bayesian approach as multiple imputation methods. Predictive mean matching was used to account for non-normality, where instead of imputing regression estimates, "real" observed values from similar cases are imputed. Methods were also compared by means of a simulated dataset. The simulation showed that the Bayesian approach yielded the most unbiased estimates for imputation. The finding of no increase in consumption levels despite a higher availability remained unaltered. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ultra-early intravenous stroke thrombolysis: do all patients benefit similarly?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We previously reported increased benefit and reduced mortality after ultra-early stroke thrombolysis in a single center. We now explored in a large multicenter cohort whether extra benefit of treatment within 90 minutes from symptom onset is uniform across predefined stroke severity subgroups, as compared with later thrombolysis. METHODS: Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients who received IV thrombolysis in 10 European stroke centers were merged. Logistic regression tested association between treatment delays, as well as excellent 3-month outcome (modified Rankin scale, 0-1), and mortality. The association was tested separately in tertiles of baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. RESULTS: In the whole cohort (n=6856), shorter onset-to-treatment time as a continuous variable was significantly associated with excellent outcome (P<0.001). Every fifth patient had onset-to-treatment time≤90 minutes, and these patients had lower frequency of intracranial hemorrhage. After adjusting for age, sex, admission glucose level, and year of treatment, onset-to-treatment time≤90 minutes was associated with excellent outcome in patients with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 7 to 12 (odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.70; P=0.004), but not in patients with baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale>12 (odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.32; P=0.99) and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 0 to 6 (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.39; P=0.80). In the latter, however, an independent association (odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.01; P<0.01) was found when considering modified Rankin scale 0 as outcome (to overcome the possible ceiling effect from spontaneous better prognosis of patients with mild symptoms). Ultra-early treatment was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: IV thrombolysis within 90 minutes is, compared with later thrombolysis, strongly and independently associated with excellent outcome in patients with moderate and mild stroke severity.

25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration is inversely associated with serum MMP-9 in a cross-sectional study of African American ESRD patients.

BACKGROUND: Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration is inversely associated with peripheral arterial disease and hypertension. Vascular remodeling may play a role in this association, however, data relating vitamin D level to specific remodeling biomarkers among ESRD patients is sparse. We tested whether 25(OH)D concentration is associated with markers of vascular remodeling and inflammation in African American ESRD patients.METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among ESRD patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis within Emory University-affiliated outpatient hemodialysis units. Demographic, clinical and dialysis treatment data were collected via direct patient interview and review of patients records at the time of enrollment, and each patient gave blood samples. Associations between 25(OH)D and biomarker concentrations were estimated in univariate analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients and in multivariate analyses using linear regression models. 25(OH) D concentration was entered in multivariate linear regression models as a continuous variable and binary variable (<15 ng/ml and =15 ng/ml). Adjusted estimate concentrations of biomarkers were compared between 25(OH) D groups using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Finally, results were stratified by vascular access type.RESULTS: Among 91 patients, mean (standard deviation) 25(OH)D concentration was 18.8 (9.6) ng/ml, and was low (<15 ng/ml) in 43% of patients. In univariate analyses, low 25(OH) D was associated with lower serum calcium, higher serum phosphorus, and higher LDL concentrations. 25(OH) D concentration was inversely correlated with MMP-9 concentration (r = -0.29, p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, MMP-9 concentration remained negatively associated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.03) and anti-inflammatory IL-10 concentration positively correlated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.04).CONCLUSIONS: Plasma MMP-9 and circulating 25(OH) D concentrations are significantly and inversely associated among ESRD patients. This finding may suggest a potential mechanism by which low circulating 25(OH) D functions as a cardiovascular risk factor.

Strategic behavior and price discovery

The paper analyzes the effects of strategic behavior by an insider in a price discovery process, akin to an information tatonnement, in the presence of a competitive informed sector. Such processes are used in the preopening period of continuous trading systems in several exchanges. It is found that the insider manipulates the market using a contrarian strategy in order to neutralize the effect of the trades of competitive informed agents. Furthermore, consistently with the empirical evidence available, we find that information revelation accelerates close to the opening, that the market price does not converge to the fundamental value no matter how many rounds the tatonnement has, and that the expected trading volume displays a U-shaped pattern. We also find that a market with a larger competitive sector (smaller insider) has an improved informational efficiency and an increased trading volume. The insider provides a public good (a lower informativeness of the price) for the competitive informed sector.

Operative Treatment of Ovarian Cancer and Borderline Tumors in Different Hospital Categories in Finland

Surgery is the cornerstone of ovarian cancer treatment and maximal cytoreduction is important. In the early 1980’s primary surgical treatment of ovarian cancer was performed in over 80 hospitals in Finland. The significance of the operative volume of the hospital, of the training of the surgeons and of centralization of surgical treatment has been widely discussed. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the outcome of surgical treatment of ovarian cancer in different hospital categories retrospectively and prospectively, and to analyze if any differences are reflected in survival. The retrospective study included 3851 ovarian cancer patients operated between 1983 and 1994 in Finland. The data was analyzed according to hospital category (university, central, and other) and by quartiles of the hospital operative volume. The results showed that patients operated in the highest operative volume hospitals had the best relative survival. When stratifying the analysis by the period of diagnosis (1983-1988 and 1989-1994), the university hospitals improved their performance the most. The prospective part of the thesis was initiated in 1999 and included 307 patients with invasive ovarian cancer and 65 patients with an ovarian borderline tumor. The baseline and 5-year surveys used a questionnaire that was filled in by the operating surgeons. For analysis of the 5-year followup data, the hospitals were divided into three categories (<10, 10-20, or >20 patients operated in 1999). The effect of the surgical volume was analyzed also as a continuous variable (1-47 operations per year). In university hospitals, pelvic lymphadenectomy was performed in 88 %, and para-aortic lymphadenectomy in 73 %, of the patients with stage I disease. The corresponding figures ranged from 11 % to 21 % in the other hospitals. For stage III ovarian cancer patients operated by gynecological oncologists, the estimated odds ratio for no macroscopic residual tumor was 3.0 times higher (95 % CI 1.2-7.5) than for those operated by general gynecologists. In the university and other hospitals 82% of the patients received platinum-based chemotherapy. Platinum + taxane combination was given to 63 % of the patients in the university and in 49 % in the other hospitals (p = 0.0763). Only a minority of the patients with tumors of borderline malignancy were staged according to recommendations, most often multiple peritoneal biopsies and omentectomy were neglected. FIGO stage, patient age, and residual tumor were independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific 5-year survival. A higher hospital operative volume was also a significant prognostic factor for better cancer-specific survival (p = 0.036) and disease-free survival (p = 0.048). In conclusion, ovarian cancer patients operated in high-volume university hospitals were more often optimally debulked and had a significantly better cancer-specific survival than patients operated in other hospitals. These results favor centralization of primary surgical treatment of ovarian cancer.

Polttodirektiivien soveltaminen sellutehtaiden ilmapäästömittauksissa

EU:n polttodirektiivit, LCP- ja jätteenpolttodirektiivi ovat arkipäivää suuressa osassa polttolaitoksia Suomessakin lähivuosien kuluessa. Molemmat direktiivit on otettu mukaan Suomen lain-säädäntöön asetuksina, joita on hieman muutettu vastaamaan kansallisia tarpeita. Polttolaitokset tulevat muuttamaan aikaisempia käytäntöjään päästöistä mitattavien komponenttien sekä tarkkailujaksojen että raportoinnin osalta. Mittausten tulokset raportoidaan jatkossa yksikössä mg/Nm3. Jatkuvatoimisia mittausjärjestelmiä on asennettava yhä useampaan laitokseen ja savukaasuista tarkkaillaan pitoisuuksia päästöjen sijaan. Edelleen raportoidaan esim. ympäristölupaviranomaiselle vuosipäästöjen suuruus. Vuonna 2000 voimaan tulleen ympäristönsuojelulain ja -asetuksen velvoittamina toiminnassa olevat sellutehtaat ovat hakeneet uuden lain mukaista ympäristölupaa vuoden 2004 loppuun mennessä. Ympäristöluvan tarvitsevat myös kaikki teholtaan yli 50 MW:n polttolaitokset. Suuria polttolaitoksia koskeva LCP-direktiivi astuu voimaan vuoden 2008 alussa. Siksi uusissa ympäristöluvissa tullaantodennäköisesti vaatimaan myös sellutehtailta ko. direktiivin mukaisia mittaus-järjestelmiä ja päästörajoja. Laitoksissa on jo nyt melko kattavat päästömittausjärjestelmät, sillä myös voimassaolevat ympäristöluvat ja ilmapäästöjen tarkkailuohjelmat velvoittavat päästöjen jatkuvaan seurantaan pääosin samoista savukaasukomponenteista kuin mitä direktiivissäkin edellytetään. Tässä diplomityössä keskitytään LCP- ja jätteenpolttodirektiivien mittausvaatimuksiin, raja-arvoihin sekä raportointiin sekä Metsä-Botnian sellutehtaiden mittausjärjestelmien parantamis-toimenpiteisiin. Yksityiskohtainen toimintamalli on tehty Joutsenon tehtaan laitosta ja mittaus-järjestelmää silmällä pitäen. Sitä voidaan käyttää myös muillatehtailla mallina savukaasupäästöjen mittauksien ja laitteiden päivitysten yhteydessä. Toimintamalliin siirtyminen ei velvoita Metsä-Botnian tehtaita, mutta monet tehtaat haluavat laitteistokannan uusimisen yhteydessä siirtyä direktiivien vaatimuksia vastaavaan järjestelmään.

Luotettavuusarvio typen oksidien päästöjen jatkuvatoimiselle seurantamenetelmälle

Prosessiteollisuudessa syntyviä ilmapäästöjä seurataan jatkuvatoimisilla mittausjärjestelmillä. Jatkuvatoimisen päästöjen seurantajärjestelmän tulee tuottaa luotettavaa tietoa prosessin aiheuttamista päästöistä. Päästöjen seurannasta saataviin tuloksiin syntyy aina epävarmuutta, joka koostuu mittausolosuhteiden, mittausjärjestelmän tai mittauksen suorittamisen aiheuttamista epävarmuuksista. Työn alussa on kuvattu Stora Enso Oyj:n Imatran tehtaitten typen oksidien jatkuvatoiminen päästöjen seurantamenetelmä ja selvitetty seurantajärjestelmän suorittama päästöjen laskentamenetelmä. Lisäksi on tuotu esille päästömittaustuloksen epävarmuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä kyseisessä järjestelmässä. Selvityksessä merkittävimmäksi järjestelmän luotettavuuteen vaikuttavaksi tekijäksi osoittautui virheellinen mittaustieto, jota voidaan hallita järjestelmässä asettamalla raja-arvo mittaustiedolle ja tehostamalla käytönaikaista valvontaa. Lisäksi korvaamalla häiriöaikainen virheellinen mittaustieto laskennallisella pitoisuuden odotusarvolla päästölaskentaa varten, tuottaa seurantajärjestelmä luotettavampia typen oksidien päästötietoja raportointia varten.

Symptoms Have Modest Accuracy in Detecting Endoscopic and Histologic Remission in Adults With Eosinophilic Esophagitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is not clear whether symptoms alone can be used to estimate the biologic activity of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). We aimed to evaluate whether symptoms can be used to identify patients with endoscopic and histologic features of remission. METHODS: Between April 2011 and June 2014, we performed a prospective, observational study and recruited 269 consecutive adults with EoE (67% male; median age, 39 years old) in Switzerland and the United States. Patients first completed the validated symptom-based EoE activity index patient-reported outcome instrument and then underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy with esophageal biopsy collection. Endoscopic and histologic findings were evaluated with a validated grading system and standardized instrument, respectively. Clinical remission was defined as symptom score <20 (range, 0-100); histologic remission was defined as a peak count of <20 eosinophils/mm(2) in a high-power field (corresponds to approximately <5 eosinophils/median high-power field); and endoscopic remission as absence of white exudates, moderate or severe rings, strictures, or combination of furrows and edema. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the best symptom score cutoff values for detection of remission. RESULTS: Of the study subjects, 111 were in clinical remission (41.3%), 79 were in endoscopic remission (29.7%), and 75 were in histologic remission (27.9%). When the symptom score was used as a continuous variable, patients in endoscopic, histologic, and combined (endoscopic and histologic remission) remission were detected with area under the curve values of 0.67, 0.60, and 0.67, respectively. A symptom score of 20 identified patients in endoscopic remission with 65.1% accuracy and histologic remission with 62.1% accuracy; a symptom score of 15 identified patients with both types of remission with 67.7% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with EoE, endoscopic or histologic remission can be identified with only modest accuracy based on symptoms alone. At any given time, physicians cannot rely on lack of symptoms to make assumptions about lack of biologic disease activity in adults with EoE. ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT00939263.

Construção e avaliação de célula de fluxo para estudo da tensão interfacial dinâmica da interface fluxo líquido - sólido por despolarização da fluorescência

A simple low-cost flow cell was developed, built and optimized in order to observe dynamic interfacial tension of continuous flow systems. Distinct materials can be used in one of the cell walls in order to observe the intermolecular forces between the flowing liquid and the chemical constitution of the walls. The fluorescence depolarization was evaluated using Rhodamine B as fluorescent probe seeded in ethylene glycol. The effects of the positioning angles on the data acquired across the cell are reported. The reproducibility of the data was evaluated with a spectrometer assembled in-house and the relative standard deviation was below 3%.

The size and prevalence of the cavum septum pellucidum are normal in subjects with panic disorder

Panic disorder is thought to involve dysfunction in the septohippocampal system, and the presence of a cavum septum pellucidum might indicate the aberrant development of this system. We compared the prevalence and size of cavum septum pellucidum in 21 patients with panic disorder and in 21 healthy controls by magnetic resonance imaging. The length of the cavum septum pellucidum was measured by counting the number of consecutive 1-mm coronal slices in which it appeared. A cavum septum pellucidum of >6 mm in length was rated as large. There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients (16 of 21 or 76.2%) and controls (18 of 21 or 85.7%) with a cavum septum pellucidum (P = 0.35, Fisher's exact test, one-tailed), and no members of either group had a large cavum septum pellucidum. The mean cavum septum pellucidum rating in the patient and control groups was 1.81 (SD = 1.50) and 2.09 (SD = 1.51), respectively. There were also no significant differences between groups when we analyzed cavum septum pellucidum ratings as a continuous variable (U = 196.5; P = 0.54). Across all subjects there was a trend towards a higher prevalence of cavum septum pellucidum in males (100%, 10 of 10) than females (75%, 24 of 32; P = 0.09, Fisher's exact test, one-tailed). Thus, we conclude that, while panic disorder may involve septo-hippocampal dysfunction, it is not associated with an increased prevalence or size of the cavum septum pellucidum.

Maternal nutrition and the risk of preeclampsia

La prééclampsie est responsable du quart des mortalités maternelles et est la deuxième cause de décès maternels associés à la grossesse au Canada et dans le monde. L’identification d’une stratégie efficace pour la prévention de la prééclampsie est une priorité et un défi primordial dans les milieux de recherche en obstétrique. Le rôle des éléments nutritifs dans le développement de la prééclampsie a récemment reçu davantage d’attention. Plusieurs études cliniques et épidémiologiques ont été menées pour déterminer les facteurs de risque alimentaires potentiels et examiner les effets d’une supplémentation nutritive dans le développement de troubles hypertensifs de la grossesse. Pour déterminer les effets de suppléments antioxydants pris pendant la grossesse sur le risque d’hypertension gestationnelle (HG) et de prééclampsie, un essai multicentrique contrôlé à double insu a été mené au Canada et au Mexique (An International Trial of Antioxidants in the Prevention of Preeclampsia – INTAPP). Les femmes, stratifiées par risque, étaient assignées au traitement expérimental quotidien (1 gramme de vitamine C et 400 UI de vitamine E) ou au placebo. En raison des effets secondaires potentiels, le recrutement pour l’essai a été arrêté avant que l’échantillon complet ait été constitué. Au total, 2640 femmes éligibles ont accepté d’être recrutées, dont 2363 (89.5%) furent incluses dans les analyses finales. Nous n’avons retrouvé aucune évidence qu’une supplémentation prénatale de vitamines C et E réduisait le risque d’HG et de ses effets secondaires (RR 0,99; IC 95% 0,78-1,26), HG (RR 1,04; IC 95% 0,89-1,22) et prééclampsie (RR 1,04; IC 95% 0,75-1,44). Toutefois, une analyse secondaire a révélé que les vitamines C et E augmentaient le risque de « perte fœtale ou de décès périnatal » (une mesure non spécifiée au préalable) ainsi qu’une rupture prématurée des membranes avant terme. Nous avons mené une étude de cohorte prospective chez les femmes enceintes recrutées dans l’INTAPP afin d’évaluer les relations entre le régime alimentaire maternel en début et fin de grossesse et le risque de prééclampsie et d’HG. Un questionnaire de fréquence alimentaire validé était administré deux fois pendant la grossesse (12-18 semaines, 32-34 semaines). Les analyses furent faites séparément pour les 1537 Canadiennes et les 799 Mexicaines en raison de l’hétérogénéité des régimes alimentaires des deux pays. Parmi les canadiennes, après ajustement pour l’indice de masse corporelle (IMC) précédant la grossesse, le groupe de traitement, le niveau de risque (élevé versus faible) et les autres facteurs de base, nous avons constaté une association significative entre un faible apport alimentaire (quartile inférieur) de potassium (OR 1,79; IC 95% 1,03-3,11) et de zinc (OR 1,90; IC 95% 1,07-3,39) et un risque augmenté de prééclampsie. Toujours chez les Canadiennes, le quartile inférieur de consommation d’acides gras polyinsaturés était associé à un risque augmenté d’HG (OR 1,49; IC 95% 1,09-2,02). Aucun des nutriments analysés n’affectait les risques d’HG ou de prééclampsie chez les Mexicaines. Nous avons entrepris une étude cas-témoins à l’intérieur de la cohorte de l’INTAPP pour établir le lien entre la concentration sérique de vitamines antioxydantes et le risque de prééclampsie. Un total de 115 cas de prééclampsie et 229 témoins ont été inclus. Les concentrations de vitamine E ont été mesurées de façon longitudinale à 12-18 semaines (avant la prise de suppléments), à 24-26 semaines et à 32-34 semaines de grossesse en utilisant la chromatographie liquide de haute performance. Lorsqu’examinée en tant que variable continue et après ajustement multivarié, une concentration de base élevée de gamma-tocophérol était associée à un risque augmenté de prééclampsie (quartile supérieur vs quartile inférieur à 24-26 semaines : OR 2,99, IC 95% 1,13-7,89; à 32-34 semaines : OR 4,37, IC 95% 1,35-14,15). Nous n’avons pas trouvé de lien entre les concentrations de alpha-tocophérol et le risque de prééclampsie. En résumé, nous n’avons pas trouvé d’effets de la supplémentation en vitamines C et E sur le risque de prééclampsie dans l’INTAPP. Nous avons toutefois trouvé, dans la cohorte canadienne, qu’une faible prise de potassium et de zinc, tel qu’estimée par les questionnaires de fréquence alimentaire, était associée à un risque augmenté de prééclampsie. Aussi, une plus grande concentration sérique de gamma-tocophérol pendant la grossesse était associée à un risque augmenté de prééclampsie.

Laser granulometry of Holocene estuarine silts: effects of hydrogen peroxide treatment

The Holocene estuarine silts of the Severn Estuary Levels (southwest Britain) are representative of their kind in northwest Europe. They contain two broad types of plant material: particles codeposited with mineral grains from the estuarine water body, and extraneous debris (stems of indigenous prior plants; post depositional root matter) which is difficult to remove completely by physical means. Treatment with hydrogen peroxide before laser granulometry removes all plant material regardless of kind, drastically reduces values for the mean grain size and median size relative to untreated samples, but has little effect on the mode, except for a restricted group of bimodal-platykurtic, medium-coarse silts. It is concluded that, in the case of sediments of the general kind examined, no advantages acrue from the treatment of samples with hydrogen peroxide prior to analysis. Although a discrete rather than continuous variable, values of the mode obtained from untreated sediments are suggested to be acceptable for most purposes where a measure of central tendency is required.

A randomised crossover study investigating the effects of galacto-oligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota in men and women over 50 years of age

Faecal microbial changes associated with ageing include reduced bifidobacteria numbers. These changes coincide with an increased risk of disease development. Prebiotics have been observed to increase bifidobacteria numbers within humans. The present study aimed to determine if prebiotic galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) could benefit a population of men and women of 50 years and above, through modulation of faecal microbiota, fermentation characteristics and faecal water genotoxicity. A total of thirty-seven volunteers completed this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover trial. The treatments – juice containing 4 g GOS and placebo – were consumed twice daily for 3 weeks, preceded by 3-week washout periods. To study the effect of GOS on different large bowel regions, three-stage continuous culture systems were conducted in parallel using faecal inocula from three volunteers. Faecal samples were microbially enumerated by quantitative PCR. In vivo, following GOS intervention, bifidobacteria were significantly more compared to post-placebo (P = 0·02). Accordingly, GOS supplementation had a bifidogenic effect in all in vitro system vessels. Furthermore, in vessel 1 (similar to the proximal colon), GOS fermentation led to more lactobacilli and increased butyrate. No changes in faecal water genotoxicity were observed. To conclude, GOS supplementation significantly increased bifidobacteria numbers in vivo and in vitro. Increased butyrate production and elevated bifidobacteria numbers may constitute beneficial modulation of the gut microbiota in a maturing population.

Stability of stationary solutions of the forced Navier-Stokes equations on the two-torus

We study the linear and nonlinear stability of stationary solutions of the forced two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations on the domain [0,2π]x[0,2π/α], where α ϵ(0,1], with doubly periodic boundary conditions. For the linear problem we employ the classical energy{enstrophy argument to derive some fundamental properties of unstable eigenmodes. From this it is shown that forces of pure χ2-modes having wavelengths greater than 2π do not give rise to linear instability of the corresponding primary stationary solutions. For the nonlinear problem, we prove the equivalence of nonlinear stability with respect to the energy and enstrophy norms. This equivalence is then applied to derive optimal conditions for nonlinear stability, including both the high-and low-Reynolds-number limits.

An in vitro study of the effect of probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics on the elderly faecal microbiota

The use of dietary intervention in the elderly in order to beneficially modulate their gut microbiota has not been extensively studied. The influence of two probiotics (Bifidobacterium longum and Lactobacillus fermentum) and two prebiotics [isomaltooligosaccharides (IMO) and short-chain fructooligosaccharides (FOS)], individually and in synbiotic combinations (B. longum with IMO, L. fermentum with FOS) on the gut microbiota of elderly individuals was investigated using faecal batch cultures and three-stage continuous culture systems. Population changes of major bacterial groups were enumerated using fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH). B. longum and IMO alone significantly increased the Bifidobacterium count after 5 and 10 h of fermentation and their synbiotic combination significantly decreased the Bacteroides count after 5 h of fermentation. L. fermentum and FOS alone significantly increased the Bifidobacterium count after 10 h and 5, 10 and 24 h of fermentation respectively. B. longum with IMO as well as B. longum and IMO alone significantly increased acetic acid concentration during the fermentation in batch cultures. In the three-stage continuous culture systems, both synbiotic combinations increased the Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus count in the third vessel representing the distal colon. In addition, the synbiotic combination of L. fermentum with scFOS resulted in a significant increase in the concentration of acetic acid. The results show that the elderly gut microbiota can be modulated in vitro with the appropriate pro-, pre- and synbiotics.