Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach

This paper has several original contributions. The first is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series- all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Regulatory reform in the brazilian railway sector and concession valuation: a preliminary assessment

Trabalho apresentado na 4th Conference on the Regulation of Infrastructures

Regulatory reform in the brazilian railway sector and its potential effects

Trabalho apresentado no Law and Society Annual Conference, 2015

Regulatory reform in the brazilian railway sector: a preliminary assesment

Escola de Direito do Rio de Janeiro da Fundação Getulio Vargas

Militarism, conflicts and indiscipline in police practices in the State of São Paulo during the First Brazilian Republic

This article examines the challenges involved in the process of police militarization and implementation of police discipline in the State of São Paulo during the First Brazilian Republic (1889 to 1930). The implementation of a militarized police model, initiated by the 1906 French Military Mission, was not fully able to deal with indiscipline issues among policemen. Beyond creating problems of its own, such as fostering a corporatist culture and strengthening rigid hierarchies, military discipline prevented police forces to address new issues that would affect its practices. Documents in the São Paulo State Public Archive provides a window to the daily violence, the personal compromises, the institutional conflicts and the political meddling that was part of police life in the State of São Paulo at the turn of the century.

Pectinase production by a Brazilian thermophilic fungus Thermomucor indicae-seudaticae N31 in solid-state and submerged fermentation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development of environmental and natural vulnerability maps for Brazilian coastal at Sao Sebastiao in São Paulo State

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Screening for antifungal, DNA-damaging and anticholinesterasic activities of Brazilian plants from the Atlantic Rainforest: Ilha do Cardoso State Park

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Titi monkeys (Callicebus spp., Atelidae : Platyrrhini) in the Brazilian state of Rondonia

Five species of titi monkey (Callicebus brunneus, Callicebus caligatus, Callicebus cinerascens, Callicebus donacophilus, and Callicebus moloch) were recorded in surveys of primate populations at 26 sites throughout the Brazilian state of Rondonia. The distribution of the two species, C. cinerascens and C. donacophilus (recorded in the state for the first time), appeared to be related to that of non-forest ecosystems, the former in the cerrado woodlands, and the latter in gallery forests of the Guapore grasslands. The results of the surveys also indicate that C. brunneus has a more restricted distribution in southern Rondonia than was previously thought, whereas C. moloch is more widespread. However, the ecological factors that determine species distribution in the south of the state remain unclear on the basis of the available data. All species were observed in small social groups of no more than five individuals, which are typical of the genus, generally in the middle and lower forest strata.

Helminthological records of six-banded Armadillos Euphractus sexcinctus (Linnaeus, 1758) from the Brazilian semi-arid region, Patos county, Paraiba state, including new morphological data on Trichohelix tuberculata (Parona and Stossich, 1901) Ortlepp, 1922 and proposal of Hadrostrongylus ransomi nov comb.

This work aimed to evaluate the gastrointestinal helminthfauna composition of six-banded armadillos from the Brazilian semi-arid region. Gastrointestinal contents of six road-killed adult animals from Patos County, Paraiba State, were analyzed. Six species of nematodes, comprising five genera and four families, were recovered from the analyzed animals. New morphological data on Trichohelix tuberculata is given, along with a new taxonomical proposal for Hadrostrongylus ransomi (Travassos, 1935) n. comb. This is the first record for parasitic helminths in this host from the Brazilian semi-arid.

THE IMAGINARY ABOUT THE SCHOOL and THE POSSIBILITIES of AN EQUALITARIAN SCHOOL: A STUDY on THE BRAZILIAN STATE SCHOOLS

The main objective of the article is to reflect on the imaginary that the teachers of two public schools have of their students and the school they work in and the ideal of an inclusive and democratic school. In this article, we reflect on the image that the teachers of two public schools in the city of Rio Claro, São Paulo State, Brazil, have of their students and their school as an institution. We use the studies of imaginary sociology as a theoretic reference base. Castoriadis (1986); Taylor (2006); Legros et al (2007) and Baczo (1984) are the referenced authors of this article. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of The Association of Science, Education and Technology