Bridging Jeffrey's Rule, AGM Revision and Dempster Conditioning in the Theory of Evidence

Belief revision characterizes the process of revising an agent’s beliefs when receiving new evidence. In the field of artificial intelligence, revision strategies have been extensively studied in the context of logic-based formalisms and probability kinematics. However, so far there is not much literature on this topic in evidence theory. In contrast, combination rules proposed so far in the theory of evidence, especially Dempster rule, are symmetric. They rely on a basic assumption, that is, pieces of evidence being combined are considered to be on a par, i.e. play the same role. When one source of evidence is less reliable than another, it is possible to discount it and then a symmetric combination operation
is still used. In the case of revision, the idea is to let prior knowledge of an agent be altered by some input information. The change problem is thus intrinsically asymmetric. Assuming the input information is reliable, it should be retained whilst the prior information should be changed minimally to that effect. To deal with this issue, this paper defines the notion of revision for the theory of evidence in such a way as to bring together probabilistic and logical views. Several revision rules previously proposed are reviewed and we advocate one of them as better corresponding to the idea of revision. It is extended to cope with inconsistency between prior and input information. It reduces to Dempster
rule of combination, just like revision in the sense of Alchourron, Gardenfors, and Makinson (AGM) reduces to expansion, when the input is strongly consistent with the prior belief function. Properties of this revision rule are also investigated and it is shown to generalize Jeffrey’s rule of updating, Dempster rule of conditioning and a form of AGM revision.

Postglacial dispersal, rather than in situ glacial survival, best explains the disjunct distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica (Ericaceae)

Aim:

The distribution of the Lusitanian flora and fauna, species which are found only in southern and western Ireland and in northern Spain and Portugal but which are absent from intervening countries, represents one of the classic conundrums of biogeography. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica was due to persistence in separate Irish and Iberian refugia, or has resulted from post-glacial recolonization followed by subsequent extinction of intervening populations.

Location:

Northern Spain and Co. Galway, western Ireland.

Methods:

Palaeodistribution modelling using Maxent was employed to identify putative refugial areas for D. cantabrica at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from 64 locations in Ireland and Spain were carried out using a chloroplast marker (atpB–rbcL), the nuclear ITS region, and an anonymous nuclear single-copy locus.

Results:

The palaeodistribution model indicated areas with a high probability of survival for D. cantabrica at the LGM off the western coast of Galicia in Spain, and in the Bay of Biscay. Spanish populations exhibited substantially higher genetic diversity than Irish populations at all three loci, as well as geographical structuring of haplotypes within Spain consistent with divergence in separate refugia. Spanish populations also exhibited far more endemic haplotypes. Divergence time between Irish and Spanish populations associated with the putative Biscay refugium was estimated as 3.333–32 ka.

Main conclusions:

Our data indicate persistence by D. cantabrica throughout the LGM in two separate southern refugia: one in western Galicia and one in the area off the coast of western France which now lies in the Bay of Biscay. Spain was recolonized from both refugia, whilst Ireland was most likely recolonized from the Biscay refugium. On the balance of evidence across the three marker types and the palaeodistribution modelling, our findings do not support the idea of in situ survival of D. cantabrica in Ireland, contrary to earlier suggestions. The fact that we cannot conclusively rule out the existence of a small, more northerly refugium, however, highlights the need for further analysis of Lusitanian plant species.

Moving to evidence-based practice in long-term care:the role of a Best Practise Resource Centre in two long-term care settings.

In this article, the authors provide an overview on the development of a Long-Term Care Best Practise Resource Centre. The results of both a feasibility study and the outcomes of a 1-year demonstration project are presented. The demonstration project involved a hospital as the information service provider and two demonstration sites, a home care service agency and a nursing home that used the services of the Centre. The goals of the Centre were threefold: provide access to literature for staff in long-term care (LTC) settings; improve the information management skills of health care providers; and support research and the integration of best practices in LTC organizations. The results of the pilot study contributed to the development of a collaborative information access system for LTC clinicians and managers that provides timely, up-to-date information contributing to improving the quality of care for adults receiving LTC. Based on this demonstration project, strategies for successful innovation in LTC are identified.

Parenting Programmes: The Best Available Evidence

Parenting programmes have been provided to a wide range of child and parent groups across a number of countries, but are they effective? This aim of this paper is to examine the findings from a number of systematic reviews that summarise the best available research evidence on the impact of these programmes on a range of parental and child outcomes. In addition to examining the findings from systematic reviews, the paper also takes a selective look at the uptake of parenting programmes in the United Kingdom, the evidence for effectiveness and the efficacy of adopting a population-based approach to parent education.

The findings from systematic reviews indicate that parenting programmes can have a positive impact on a range of outcomes, including improved child behaviour, increased maternal self-esteem and relationship adjustment, improved mother–child interaction and knowledge and decreased maternal depression and stress. While there is a need for greater evaluation of the long-term impact of these programmes, preliminary evidence indicates that these positive results are maintained over time, with group-based, behaviourally orientated programmes tending to be more effective.

While several recent trials indicate that that these programmes can be effective within the United Kingdom, high drop-out rates may mean that they only reach a minority of parents. However, multi-level parent education strategies such as the Australian Triple P Positive Parenting Strategy that incorporate an array of mediums aimed at different levels of need may provide an opportunity to reach a wider range of parents. This approach is currently being evaluated in order to ascertain whether it is effective in improving child outcomes in the general population.

While there is no coherent strategy for parent training across the United Kingdom, within the Northern Ireland context there is a move towards the development of a family support strategy. While uptake of parent education and training is currently unknown the best available evidence highlights the positive impact that parent training can have, suggesting the importance of including parent education as one aspect of this strategy

Empowering Human Services Organizations to Embrace Evidence-informed Practice: International Best Practices

Human service organizations are increasingly using knowledge as a mechanism for implementing change. Knowledge emerging from many sources that may include academic publications, grey literature, and service user and practitioner wisdom contributes toward informing best practice. The question is: how do we harness this knowledge to make practice more effective? This paper synthesizes the lessons learned from eight international organizations that have made a commitment to knowledge mobilization as an important priority in their mission and operation. The paper provides a conceptual model, tools and resources to help human services organizations create strategies for building, enhancing or sustaining their knowledge mobilization efforts. The paper describes a flexible blueprint for human service organizations to leverage knowledge mobilization efforts at all levels of service delivery.

Impact of an evidence-based online module on best practice in physical therapy for children with developmental coordination disorder: a mixed methods study

Aims : This study evaluates the impact of a Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) evidence-based online module including synthesized resources, practical strategies, and interactive component on self-reported physical therapist (PT) knowledge, skills, and practice. Methods : PTs from across Canada completed questionnaires before, immediately after, and 2 months following completion of the module. Questionnaires used 7-point Likert scale items and short open-ended questions; analyzes used paired t-tests and a thematic approach. Results : Fifty PTs completed both pre- and post-questionnaires; 41 of these completed the follow-up questionnaire. Most items (79%) evaluating self-reported knowledge and skills increased significantly following module completion and this increase was maintained two months later. Most participants (92%) reported an increase in their confidence to provide DCD evidence-based services. Participants plan to modify their evaluative practices (e.g., involving children in goal setting) and their management of DCD (e.g., using best practice principles, providing resources to families and physicians). At the 2- month follow-up, 46% of participants had returned to the module to review information (e.g., video, resources) or to download handouts. Conclusion : An online module developed collaboratively with PTs has the potential not only to increase PTs’ knowledge, but also to support them in implementing evidence-based services for children with DCD.

Physical therapy: The challenge of developing the best scientific evidence of their practice

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Building sustainable values in organizations with the support of human resource management: Evidence from one firm considered as the 'best place to work' in Brazil

Researchers and other professionals unanimously agree that companies should become more sustainable, but this will not happen without the support of human resource management. Paradoxically, there is a lack of information on the support human resource management offers to organizational sustainability applied to real cases. Therefore, this research presents a case study on this topic that was carried out in a leading Brazilian company, which is considered as a model and has been selected as 'the best place to work in the country'. The results provide practical examples of how this family company has been working to guarantee an increasingly sustainable performance with the support of human resources, highlighting the achievements and challenges the company has faced. One of the main results indicates that companies seeking to achieve sustainability need the assistance of the human resource field in order to design a communication system which bridges the gap between practices and sustainable values. © 2012 Management Centre for Human Values.

Evidence on the best chlorhexidine concentration to perform oral hygiene: meta-analysis

Although scientific literature has demonstrated the relevance of oral hygiene with chlorhexidine in preventing ventilation-associated pneumonia, there is a wide variation of concentrations, frequency and techniques when using the antiseptic. The aim of this research was to assessthe best chlorhexidine concentration used to perform oral hygiene to prevent ventilation-associated pneumonia. A systematic review followed by four meta-analysis using chlorhexidine concentration as criterion was carried out. Articles in English, Spanish or Portuguese indexed in the Cochrane, Embase, Lilacs, PubMed/Medline and Ovid electronic databases were selected. The research was carried out from May to June 2011. The primary outcome measure of interest was ventilation-associated pneumonia. Ten primary studies were divided in four groups (Gl-4), based on chlorhexidine concentration criterion. Gl (5 primary studies, chlorhexidine 0.12%) showed homogeneity among studies and the use of chlorhexidine represented a protective factor. G2 (3 primary studies, chlorhexidine 0.20%) showed heterogeneity among studies and chlorhexidine did not represent a protective factor. G3 (2 primary studies, chlorhexidine 2,00%) showed homogeneity among studies and the use of chlorhexidine was significant. G4 (10 primary studies with different chlorhexidine concentrations) showed homogeneity among studies and the common Relative Risk was significant. Statistic analyses showed a protective effect of oral hygiene with chlorhexidine in preventing ventilation-associated pneumonia. However, it was not possible to identity a standard to establish optimal chlorhexidine concentration.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

Evidence-Based Practice in the Juvenile Justice System: Balancing Clinical Expertise with Best Available Research and Client Variables

Each year, thousands of adolescents are processed through the juvenile justice system -- a system that is complicated, expensive, and inadequately addressing the needs of the youth in its care. While there is extensive literature available in support of interventions for youthful offenders that are clinically superior to current care and more cost-effective than the existing structure, there is a gap between research and practice that is preventing their implementation. The use of Evidence-Based Practice in Psychology (EBPP) as defined by the American Psychological Association is presented as one method to bridge this gap. This paper identifies and discusses each of five barriers to effective use of EBPP: cost, fragmentation of the mental health system, historical and systemic variables, research methodology, and clinician variables. These barriers are first defined and then illustrated using examples from the author's experience working in the juvenile justice field. Finally, recommendations for the field are presented.

Report of the Royal commission appointed on the 20th November, 1894 : to inquire and report upon the best means of developing the marine and other fisheries of New South Wales, and as to the better regulation of the fishing industry by law, together with the minutes of evidence and appendix.

"Presented to Parliament by command".