An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Translation and cultural adaptation for Brazil of the Developing Nurses' Thinking model

OBJETIVOS:traduzir e adaptar culturalmente para a língua portuguesa do Brasil o modelo Developing Nurses' Thinking, utilizado como estratégia ao ensino do raciocínio clínico.MÉTODO:a tradução e adaptação cultural foi realizada por meio de tradução inicial, síntese das traduções, retrotradução, avaliação por comitê de especialistas e pré-teste com 33 estudantes de graduação em enfermagem.RESULTADOS:as etapas de tradução inicial, síntese das traduções e retrotradução foram realizadas a contento, havendo a necessidade de pequenos ajustes. Na avaliação pelo comitê de especialistas da versão traduzida, todos os itens obtiveram concordância superior a 80% na primeira rodada de avaliação e no pré-teste com os estudantes. O modelo mostrou-se adequado à sua finalidade.CONCLUSÃO:recomenda-se o uso do modelo como uma estratégia complementar ao ensino do raciocínio diagnóstico, visando a formação de enfermeiros mais conscientes sobre a tarefa diagnóstica e a importância da segurança do paciente.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - Short Form 2006 for Brazil

The objective of this study was to perform a cross-cultural adaptation of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - Short Form 2006 for Brazil. The instrument was applied in six hospitals in three regions of Brazil. Content, face, and construct validity was performed. Analysis of the instrument's reliability was performed by verifying the items' internal consistency through Cronbach's alpha. The sample was composed of 1301 professionals working in clinical and surgical wards of six hospitals. Confirmatory analysis showed that the model including 41 items was satisfactory. The Portuguese version presented an alpha of 0.89. The item-total correlations among the domains were moderate to strong, except for the domain Stress Recognition. We concluded that the instrument's version adapted to Portuguese and applied in our sample is valid and reliable.

Genome characterization through a mathematical model of the genetic code: an analysis of the whole chromosome 1 of A. thaliana

The objective of this work is to characterize the genome of the chromosome 1 of A.thaliana, a small flowering plants used as a model organism in studies of biology and genetics, on the basis of a recent mathematical model of the genetic code. I analyze and compare different portions of the genome: genes, exons, coding sequences (CDS), introns, long introns, intergenes, untranslated regions (UTR) and regulatory sequences. In order to accomplish the task, I transformed nucleotide sequences into binary sequences based on the definition of the three different dichotomic classes. The descriptive analysis of binary strings indicate the presence of regularities in each portion of the genome considered. In particular, there are remarkable differences between coding sequences (CDS and exons) and non-coding sequences, suggesting that the frame is important only for coding sequences and that dichotomic classes can be useful to recognize them. Then, I assessed the existence of short-range dependence between binary sequences computed on the basis of the different dichotomic classes. I used three different measures of dependence: the well-known chi-squared test and two indices derived from the concept of entropy i.e. Mutual Information (MI) and Sρ, a normalized version of the “Bhattacharya Hellinger Matusita distance”. The results show that there is a significant short-range dependence structure only for the coding sequences whose existence is a clue of an underlying error detection and correction mechanism. No doubt, further studies are needed in order to assess how the information carried by dichotomic classes could discriminate between coding and noncoding sequence and, therefore, contribute to unveil the role of the mathematical structure in error detection and correction mechanisms. Still, I have shown the potential of the approach presented for understanding the management of genetic information.

An Analysis Of U.S.- Economic Policy Toward Chile During The Cold War

This examination of U.S. economic policy directed toward Chile centered on the political and economic changes that occurred within Chile between 1960 and 1988. During this time, U.S. economic policy directed toward Chile was crafted by members of the American government uneasy with Cold War concerns with the most important of which being the spread of Communism throughout the globe. By viewing U.S. policy toward Chile through this Cold War lens, this thesis explores the different ways in which economic policy was used to advance the political and economic goals within not only Chile, but also Latin America as a whole. The Cold Warriors that crafted and enacted these economic policies were motivated by a variety of factors, and influenced by events outside of their control. From President John F. Kennedy to Ronald Reagan, American policymakers utilized economic policy as a means to achieve regional goals. This project sheds light on an understudied section of U.S. foreign policy history by exploring the way that economic policy helped achieve Cold War objectives in the Southern Cone.

Business as Usual? : An Appraisal of the Implementation of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity into EU’s Media Law and Policies

Irrespective of the diverse stances taken on the effect of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity in the external relations context, since its wording is fairly open-ended, it is clear to all observers that the Convention’s impact will largely depend on how it is implemented domestically. The discussion on the national implementation of the Convention, both in the policy and in the academic discourses, is only just emerging. The implementation model of the EU could set an important example for the international community and for the other State Parties that have ratified the UNESCO Convention, as both the EU and its Member States acting individually, have played a critical role in the adoption of the Convention, as well as in the longer process of promoting cultural concerns on the international scene. Against this backdrop, this article analyses the extent to which the EU internal law and policies, in particular in the key area of media, take into account the spirit and the letter of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity. The article seeks to critically evaluate the present state of affairs and make some recommendations for calibration of future policies.

Opioid maintenance therapy in Switzerland: an overview of the Swiss IMPROVE study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Switzerland’s drug policy model has always been unique and progressive, but there is a Need to reassess this system in a rapidly changing world. The IMPROVE study was conducted to gain understanding of the attitudes and beliefs towards opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) in Switzerland with regards to quality and Access to treatment. To obtain a “real-world” view on OMT, the study approached its goals from two different angles: from the perspectives of the OMT patients and of the physicians who treat patients with maintenance therapy. The IMPROVE study collected a large body of data on OMT in Switzerland. This paper presents a small subset of the dataset, focusing on the research design and methodology, the profile of the participants and the responses to several key questions addressed by the questionnaires. METHODS: IMPROVE was an observational, questionnaire-based cross-sectional study on OMT conducted in Switzerland. Respondents consisted of OMT patients and treating physicians from various regions of the country. Data were collected using questionnaires in German and French. Physicians were interviewed by phone with a computer-based questionnaire. Patients self-completed a paper-based questionnaire at the physicians’ Offices or OMT treatment centres. RESULTS: A total of 200 physicians and 207 patients participated in the study. Liquid methadone and methadone tablets or capsules were the medications most commonly prescribed by physicians (60% and 20% of patient load, respectively) whereas buprenorphine use was less frequent. Patients (88%) and physicians (83%) were generally satisfied with the OMT currently offered. The current political framework and lack of training or information were cited as determining factors that deter physicians from engaging in OMT. About 31% of OMT physicians interviewed were ≥60 years old, indicating an ageing population. Diversion and misuse were considered a significant problem in Switzerland by 45% of the physicians. CONCLUSION: The subset of IMPROVE data presented gives a present-day, real-life overview of the OMT landscape in Switzerland. It represents a valuable resource for policy makers, key opinion leaders and drug addiction researchers and will be a useful basis for improving the current Swiss OMT model.

Examining Gender Differences in Received, Provided and Invisible Social Control: An Application of the Dual-Effects-Model

The dual-effects model of social control not only assumes that social control leads to better health practices but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent. The present study advances the current literature by examining social control from a dyadic perspective in the context of smoking. In addition, the study examines whether control, continuous smoking abstinence, and affect are differentially related for men and women. Before and three weeks after a self-set quit attempt, we examined 106 smokers (77 men, mean age: 40.67, average number of cigarettes smoked per day: 16.59 [SD=8.52, range=1-40] at baseline and 5.27 [SD=6.97, range=0-40] at follow-up) and their nonsmoking heterosexual partners, assessing received and provided control, continuous abstinence, and affect. With regard to smoker's affective reactions, partner's provided control was related to an increase in positive and to a decrease in negative affect, but only for female smokers. Moreover, the greater the discrepancy between smoker received and partner's provided control was the more positive affect increased and the more negative affect decreased, but again only for female smokers. These findings demonstrate that female smokers' well-being was raised over time if they were not aware of the control attempts of their nonsmoking partners, indicating positive effects of invisible social control. This study's results emphasize the importance of applying a dyadic perspective and taking gender differences in the dual-effects model of social control into account.

Explaining car drivers' intention to prevent road-traffic noise: An application of the Norm Activation Model

Strengthening car drivers’ intention to prevent road-traffic noise is a first step toward noise abatement through voluntary change of behavior. We analyzed predictors of this intention based on the norm activation model (i.e., personal norm, problem awareness, awareness of consequences, social norm, and value orientations). Moreover, we studied the effects of noise exposure, noise sensitivity, and noise annoyance on problem awareness. Data came from 1,002 car drivers who participated in a two-wave longitudinal survey over 4 months. Personal norm had a large prospective effect on intention, even when the previous level of intention was controlled for, and mediated the effect of all other variables on intention. Almost 60% of variance in personal norm was explained by problem awareness, social norm, and biospheric value orientation. The effects of noise sensitivity and noise exposure on problem awareness were small and mediated by noise annoyance. We propose four communication strategies for strengthening the intention to prevent road-traffic noise in car drivers.

The Adaptation Effect in Bilingual People who Stutter: An Examination of the Oral-Motor Rehearsal Theory

The present study provided further information about stuttering among bilingual populations and attempted to assess the significance of repeated oral-motor movements during an adaptation task in two bilingual adults. This was accomplished by requesting that bilingual people who stutter to complete an adaptation task of the same written passage in two different languages. Explored was the following research question: In bilingual speakers who stutter, what is the effect of altering the oral-motor movements by changing the language of the passage read during an adaptation task? Two bilingual adults were each requested to complete an adaptation task consisting of 10 readings in two separate conditions. Participants 1 and 2 completed two conditions, each of which contained a separate passage. Condition B consisted of an adaptation procedure in which the participants read five successive readings in English followed by five additional successive readings in Language 1 (L1). Following the completion of the first randomly assigned condition, the participant was given a rest period of 30 minutes before beginning the remaining condition and passage. Condition A consisted of an adaptation procedure in which the participants read five successive readings in L1 followed by five additional successive readings in English. Results across participants, conditions, and languages indicated an atypical adaptation curve over 10 readings characterized by a dramatic increase in stuttering following a change of language. Closer examination of individual participants revealed differences in stuttering and adaptation among languages and conditions. Participants 1 and 2 demonstrated differences in adaptation and stuttering among languages. Participant 1 demonstrated an increase in stuttering following a change in language read in Condition B and a decrease in stuttering following a change in language read in Condition A. It is speculated that language proficiency contributed to the observed differences in stuttering following a change of language. Participant 2 demonstrated an increase in stuttering following a change in language read in Condition A and a minimal increase in stuttering following a change in language read in Condition B. It is speculated that a change in the oral-motor plan contributed to the increase in stuttering in Condition A. Collectively, findings from this exploratory study lend support to an interactive effect between language proficiency and a change in the oral-motor plan contributing to increased stuttering following a change of language during an adaptation task.

An analysis of the RightCare policy at Ben Taub General Hospital, Houston, Texas

Introduction. This study is a two-part evaluation of the RightCare policy, a policy implemented to reduce crowding at the Emergency Center (EC) at Ben Taub General Hospital in Houston, Harris County, Texas. This research includes an evaluation of the policy's impact on specific hospital measures, along with a description of the policy's demise from the point of view of hospital staff. Objective. The purpose of this study is two-fold: (1) To determine whether RightCare policy affected the level of crowding in the Emergency Center and (2) to identify the conditions that may have led to the policy's demise. Methods. For the policy impact portion of this research, hospital measures were collected from existing databases. Analysis included a pre-post comparative design in which the 12 months preceding the policy's implementation were compared with the 12 months following the policy's implementation. For the policy perception portion, employees were surveyed using an on-line questionnaire. Results. The results of the study are mixed. Some measures improved, including time spent on ambulance diversion and the proportion of those who left without being seen, while others did not, such as return visits and total length of stay. Employees generally supported the policy, but expressed concerns over insufficient training and funding. Conclusion. The RightCare policy was a good initial attempt to improve crowded conditions in the EC. The study showed that a clearer policy design, improved training, adequate staffing levels, and better communication would improve operational outcomes in the future.^

Social support, health status and health services utilization among the noninstitutionalized elderly: An analysis of the Supplement on Aging to the 1984 national health interview survey

The association between Social Support, Health Status, and Health Services Utilization of the elderly, was explored based on the analysis of data from the Supplement on Aging to the National Health Interview Survey, 1984 (N = 11,497) using a modified framework of Aday and Andersen's Expanded Behavioral Model. The results suggested that Social Support as operationalized in this study was an independent determinant of the use of health services. The quantity of social activities and the use of community services were the two most consistent determinants across different types of health services use.^ The effects of social support on the use of health services were broken down into three components to facilitate explanations of the mechanisms through which social support operated. The Predisposing and Enabling component of Social Support had independent, although not uniform, effects on the use of health services. Only slight substitute effects of social support were detected. These included the substitution of the use of senior centers for longer stay in the hospital and the substitution of help with IADL problems for the use of formal home care services.^ The effect of financial support on the use of health services was found to be different for middle and low income populations. This differential effect was also found for the presence of intimate networks, the frequencies of interaction with children and the perceived availability of support among urban/rural, male/female and white/non-white subgroups.^ The study also suggested that the selection of appropriate Health Status measures should be based on the type of Health Services Utilization in which a researcher is interested. The level of physical function limitation and role activity limitation were the two most consistent predictors of the volume of physician visits, number of hospital days, and average length of stay in the hospital during the past year.^ Some alternative hypotheses were also raised and evaluated, when possible. The impacts of the complex sample design, the reliability and validity of the measures and other limitations of this analysis were also discussed. Finally, a revised framework was proposed and discussed based on the analysis. Some policy implications and suggestions for future study were also presented. ^

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATUS OF MENTAL ILLNESS IN BENDEL STATE OF NIGERIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC MENTAL HEALTH POLICY AND EDUCATION

This descriptive study assesses the current status of mental illness in Bendel State of Nigeria to determine its implications for mental health policy and education. It is a study of the demographic characteristics of psychiatric patients in the only two modern western psychiatric facilities in Bendel State, the various treatment modalities utilized for mental illness, and the people's choice of therapeutic measures for mental illness in Bendel State.^ This study investigated ten aspects of mental illness in Bendel State (1) An increase of the prevalence of mental illness (psychiatric disorder) in Bendel State. (2) Unaided, unguided, and uncared for mentally ill people roaming about Bendel State. (3) Pluralistic Treatment Modalities for mentally ill patients in Bendel State. (4) Traditional Healers treating more mentally ill patients than the modern western psychiatric hospitals. (5) Inadequate modern western psychiatric facilities in Bendel State. (6) Controversy between Traditional Health and modern western trained doctors over the issue of possible cooperation between traditional and modern western medicine. (7) Evidence of mental illness in all ethnic groups in Bendel State. (8) More scientifically based and better organized modern western psychiatric hospitals than the traditional healing centers. (9) Traditional healers' level of approach with patients, and accessibility to patients' families compared with the modern western trained doctors. (10) An urgent need for an official action to institute a comprehensive mental health policy that will provide an optimum care for the mentally ill in Bendel State, and in Nigeria in general.^ Of the eight popular treatment modalities generally used in Bendel State for mental illness, 54% of the non-patient population sampled preferred the use of traditional healing, 26.5% preferred the use of modern western treatment, and 19.5% preferred religious healers.^ The investigator concluded at this time not to recommend the integration of Traditional Healing and modern western medicine in Nigeria. Rather, improvement of the existing modern western psychiatric facilities and a proposal to establish facilities to enable traditional healing and modern western medicine to exist side by side were highly recommended. ^