Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Reconstruction of historical pollination rates reveals linked declines of pollinators and plants

Widespread reports of low pollination rates suggest a recent anthropogenic decline in pollination that could threaten natural and agricultural ecosystems. Nevertheless, unequivocal evidence for a decline in pollination over time has remained elusive because it was not possible to determine historical pollination rates. Here we demonstrate a widely applicable method for reconstructing historical pollination rates, thus allowing comparison with contemporary rates from the same sites. We focused on the relationship between the oil-collecting bee Rediviva peringueyi (Melittidae) and the guild of oil-secreting orchid species (Coryciinae) that depends on it for pollination. The guild is distributed across the highly transformed and fragmented lowlands of the Cape Region of South Africa. We show that rehydrated herbarium specimens of Pterygodium catholicum, the most abundant member of the guild, contain a record of past pollinator activity in the form of pollinarium removal rates. Analysis of a pollination time series showed a recent decline in pollination on Signal Hill, a small urban conservation area. The same herbaria contain historical species occurrence data. We analyzed this data and found that there has been a contemporaneous shift in orchid guild composition in urban areas due to the local extirpation of the non-clonal species, consistent with their greater dependence on seeds and pollination for population persistence.

Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

1.Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. 2.Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land-use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus; a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall), and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. 3.Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs, and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. 4.Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. 5.Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will become worse over time. Our results suggest that forest restoration designed to reduce the detrimental impacts of agriculture on breeding may also help reduce the detrimental effects of breeding late due to wetter springs. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects of environmental change when managing wild populations.

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species` sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating species life-history traits and patterns of deforestation in amphibian conservation planning

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling Habitat Split: Landscape and Life History Traits Determine Amphibian Extinction Thresholds

Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations. © 2013 Fonseca et al.

Long-term endemism of two highly divergent lineages of the amphibian-killing fungus in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multiple Quaternary Refugia in the Eastern Guiana Shield Revealed by Comparative Phylogeography of 12 Frog Species

The Guiana Shield (GS) is one of the most pristine regions of Amazonia and biologically one of the richest areas on Earth. How and when this massive diversity arose remains the subject of considerable debate. The prevailing hypothesis of Quaternary glacial refugia suggests that a part of the eastern GS, among other areas in Amazonia, served as stable forested refugia during periods of aridity. However, the recently proposed disturbance-vicariance hypothesis proposes that fluctuations in temperature on orbital timescales, with some associated aridity, have driven Neotropical diversification. The expectations of the temporal and spatial organization of biodiversity differ between these two hypotheses. Here, we compare the genetic structure of 12 leaf-litter inhabiting frog species from the GS lowlands using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear sequences in an integrative analytical approach that includes phylogenetic reconstructions, molecular dating, and Geographic Information System methods. This comparative and integrated approach overcomes the well-known limitations of phylogeographic inference based on single species and single loci. All of the focal species exhibit distinct phylogeographic patterns highlighting taxon-specific historical distributions, ecological tolerances to climatic disturbance, and dispersal abilities. Nevertheless, all but one species exhibit a history of fragmentation/isolation within the eastern GS during the Quaternary with spatial and temporal concordance among species. The signature of isolation in northern French Guiana (FG) during the early Pleistocene is particularly clear. Approximate Bayesian Computation supports the synchrony of the divergence between northern FG and other GS lineages. Substructure observed throughout the GS suggests further Quaternary fragmentation and a role for rivers. Our findings support fragmentation of moist tropical forest in the eastern GS during this period when the refuge hypothesis would have the region serving as a contiguous wet-forest refuge.

Promoting Amphibian Conservation through the College Classroom: Detection of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis among Local Amphibians

Many global amphibian declines have been linked to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). The knowledge on Bd distribution provides a fundamental basis for amphibian conservation planning. Yet, such Bd distribution information is currently insufficient, in particular at a regional scale. The college classroom provides an excellent opportunity to expand the knowledge of Bd distribution. Here we provide an example of such research projects to detect Bd prevalence among local amphibians in a college course setting and present the results of work conducted in central Pennsylvania, USA. We collected toe clips and conducted PCR assays of six species, Plethodon cinereus, Desmognathus fuscus, Notophthalmus viridescens, Lithobates catesbeianus, L. clamitans, and L. sylvaticus (59 individuals). Four groups of students independently conducted entire projects, orally presented their findings, and submitted manuscripts to the professor at the end of the semester. This example demonstrates that it is feasible for an undergraduate class to complete a Bd-detection project within a single semester. Such a project not only contributes to Bd research but also promotes conservation education among students through hands-on research experiences. We found Bd infection in only one sample of N. viridescens, but no sign of infection in the rest of the samples. As a relatively high prevalence of Bd has been reported in surrounding areas, our results suggest spatial heterogeneity in Bd occurrence at a regional scale and thus, the need for continued efforts to monitor Bd prevalence.

A Cross-Sectional Survey of Repetitive Behaviors and Restricted Interests in a Typically Developing Turkish Child Population

This study examined compulsive-like behaviors (CLBs) which are higher-order types of Repetitive Behaviors And Restricted Interests (RBRIs) in typically developing children in Turkey. Caregivers of 1,204 children between 8 and 72 months were interviewed with Childhood Routines Inventory (CRI) by trained interviewers in a cross-sectional survey. Factor analysis of the CRI revealed two factor structures comprising "just right behaviors" and "repetitive/sensory sensitivity behaviors". CLB frequency peaked at 2-4 years with declines after age four. In contrast to the previous CRI studies reporting no gender difference, CLBs were more common in males in 12-23 and 48-59 month age groups on both total CLB frequency and repetitive/sensory sensitivity behaviors. Also ages of onsets for CRI items were somewhat later than reported in other samples. Our findings supported the findings of the previous CRI studies while also revealing new perspectives in need of further investigation.

Amphibian Biodiversity Survey - Wetland Area Southwest of Montana Tech

The primary goal of this project was to launch a pilot population study in the spring-fed wetland area southwest of Montana Tech to establish baseline data on density, distribution, abundance, and diversity of amphibians in the area. The current confirmed species at the select site is the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris). Based on preliminary habitat assessment and existing literature, other species possibilities included the long-toed salamander (Ambrystoma macrodactylum) boreal chorus frog (Pseudacris maculata), the Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus), and the leopard frog (Rana pipiens), (Werner et al. 2004) though the latter species is considered unlikely based on the specie’s declining status (Werner 2003; Werner et al. 2004). The project’s secondary goal was to collect basic habitat and environmental data: vegetation, precipitation, temperature. The third goal was to explore correlations between species prevalence and environmental data to expand the scientific understanding of population dynamics in the field of amphibian studies (see: Ferner, 2007; Dodd, 2010).

Population structure, inbreeding and local adaptation within an endangered riverine specialist: the nase (Chondrostoma nasus)

Chondrostoma nasus is a cyprinid fish with highly specialized, ecologically and geographically distinct, ontogenetic trophic niches. Nase population numbers across their Swiss range have shown massive declines and many localized extinctions. Here we integrate data from different genetic markers with phenotypic and demographic data to survey patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic diversity in all extant (and one extinct) Swiss nase populations, with the aim to delineate intraspecific conservation units (CUs) and to inform future population management strategies. We discovered two major genetically and geographically distinct population groupings. The first population grouping comprises nase inhabiting rivers flowing into Lake Constance; the second comprises nase populations from Rhine drainages below Lake Constance. Within these clusters there is generally limited genetic differentiation among populations. Genomic outlier scans based on 256–377 polymorphic AFLP loci revealed little evidence of local adaptation both within and among population clusters, with the exception of one candidate locus identified in scans involving the inbred Schanzengraben population. However, significant phenotypic differentiation in body shape between certain populations suggests a need for more intensive future studies of local adaptation. Our data strongly suggests that the two major population groups should be treated as distinct CUs, with any supplemental stocking and reintroductions sourced only from within the range of the CU concerned.

Effects of ocean acidification on population dynamics and community structure of crustose coralline algae

Calcification and growth of crustose coralline algae (CCA) are affected by elevated seawater pCO2 and associated changes in carbonate chemistry. However, the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on population and community-level responses of CCA have barely been investigated. We explored changes in community structure and population dynamics (size structure and reproduction) of CCA in response to OA. Recruited from an experimental flow-through system, CCA settled onto the walls of plastic aquaria and developed under exposure to one of three pCO2 treatments (control [present day, 389±6 ppm CO2], medium [753±11 ppm], and high [1267±19 ppm]). Elevated pCO2 reduced total CCA abundance and affected community structure, in particular the density of the dominant species Pneophyllum sp. and Porolithon onkodes. Meanwhile, the relative abundance of P. onkodes declined from 24% under control CO2 to 8.3% in high CO2 (65% change), while the relative abundance of Pneophyllum sp. remained constant. Population size structure of P. onkodes differed significantly across treatments, with fewer larger individuals under high CO2. In contrast, the population size structure and number of reproductive structures (conceptacles) per crust of Pneophyllum sp. was similar across treatments. The difference in the magnitude of the response of species abundance and population size structure between species may have the potential to induce species composition changes in the future. These results demonstrate that the impacts of OA on key coral reef builders go beyond declines in calcification and growth, and suggest important changes to aspects of population dynamics and community ecology.

Naval Station Rota reptile and amphibian survey

This report summarizes the results of a herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) survey at Naval Station Rota (NAVSTA Rota), Spain conducted during June and October 2008, March 2009 and July 2010. The main objective of this investigation was to develop an inventory of herpetofauna, including their base-wide distribution and habitat use. Data from these surveys was used to supplement information in the 2010 Cultural/Natural Resources Management User's Guide and can also be used for environmental planning, natural resource management and conservation. Prior to this survey, only cursory field work had been conducted on the station for herpetofauna with the exception of the common chameleon (Chamaleo chamaeleon). A comprehensive population count and habitat assessment for the common chameleon was conducted in September 2001.

Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999

Survey evidence through the early 1990s generally suggests a reduction in disability in the elderly population of the United States. Because the evidence is not fully consistent, several authors have speculated about whether disability declines will continue. This paper reports results from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey on disability trends from 1982 through 1999. It is found that disability continued to decline in the 1994 to 1999 period, and that the decline was greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s. The disability decline from 1982 to 1989 was 0.26% per year, from 1989 to 1994 it was 0.38% per year, and from 1994 to 1999 it was 0.56% per year. In addition, disability declined by a greater percentage for blacks than for nonblacks over the 1989 to 1999 period.