Climate spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors

We introduce an algorithm (called REDFITmc2) for spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors. It is based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for unevenly spaced time series, in combination with the Welch's Overlapped Segment Averaging procedure, bootstrap bias correction and persistence estimation. The timescale errors are modelled parametrically and included in the simulations for determining (1) the upper levels of the spectrum of the red-noise AR(1) alternative and (2) the uncertainty of the frequency of a spectral peak. Application of REDFITmc2 to ice core and stalagmite records of palaeoclimate allowed a more realistic evaluation of spectral peaks than when ignoring this source of uncertainty. The results support qualitatively the intuition that stronger effects on the spectrum estimate (decreased detectability and increased frequency uncertainty) occur for higher frequencies. The surplus information brought by algorithm REDFITmc2 is that those effects are quantified. Regarding timescale construction, not only the fixpoints, dating errors and the functional form of the age-depth model play a role. Also the joint distribution of all time points (serial correlation, stratigraphic order) determines spectrum estimation.

Health-related quality of life and survival in liver transplant candidates.

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is an important measure of the effects of chronic liver disease in affected patients that helps guide interventions to improve well-being. However, the relationship between HRQOL and survival in liver transplant candidates remains unclear. We examined whether the Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores from the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey were associated with survival in liver transplant candidates. We administered the SF-36 questionnaire (version 2.0) to patients in the Pulmonary Vascular Complications of Liver Disease study, a multicenter prospective cohort of patients evaluated for liver transplantation in 7 academic centers in the United States between 2003 and 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used with death as the primary outcome and adjustment for liver transplantation as a time-varying covariate. The mean age of the 252 participants was 54 +/- 10 years, 64% were male, and 94% were white. During the 422 person years of follow-up, 147 patients (58%) were listed, 75 patients (30%) underwent transplantation, 49 patients (19%) died, and 3 patients were lost to follow-up. Lower baseline PCS scores were associated with an increased mortality rate despite adjustments for age, gender, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and liver transplantation (P for the trend = 0.0001). The MCS score was not associated with mortality (P for the trend = 0.53). In conclusion, PCS significantly predicts survival in liver transplant candidates, and interventions directed toward improving the physical status may be helpful in improving outcomes in liver transplant candidates.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR STANDARDIZED MORTALITY RATIOS WITH APPLICATION TO OCCUPATIONAL FOLLOW-UP STUDIES

Traditional comparison of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) can be misleading if the age-specific mortality ratios are not homogeneous. For this reason, a regression model has been developed which incorporates the mortality ratio as a function of age. This model is then applied to mortality data from an occupational cohort study. The nature of the occupational data necessitates the investigation of mortality ratios which increase with age. These occupational data are used primarily to illustrate and develop the statistical methodology.^ The age-specific mortality ratio (MR) for the covariates of interest can be written as MR(,ij...m) = ((mu)(,ij...m)/(theta)(,ij...m)) = r(.)exp (Z('')(,ij...m)(beta)) where (mu)(,ij...m) and (theta)(,ij...m) denote the force of mortality in the study and chosen standard populations in the ij...m('th) stratum, respectively, r is the intercept, Z(,ij...m) is the vector of covariables associated with the i('th) age interval, and (beta) is a vector of regression coefficients associated with these covariables. A Newton-Raphson iterative procedure has been used for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients.^ This model provides a statistical method for a logical and easily interpretable explanation of an occupational cohort mortality experience. Since it gives a reasonable fit to the mortality data, it can also be concluded that the model is fairly realistic. The traditional statistical method for the analysis of occupational cohort mortality data is to present a summary index such as the SMR under the assumption of constant (homogeneous) age-specific mortality ratios. Since the mortality ratios for occupational groups usually increase with age, the homogeneity assumption of the age-specific mortality ratios is often untenable. The traditional method of comparing SMRs under the homogeneity assumption is a special case of this model, without age as a covariate.^ This model also provides a statistical technique to evaluate the relative risk between two SMRs or a dose-response relationship among several SMRs. The model presented has application in the medical, demographic and epidemiologic areas. The methods developed in this thesis are suitable for future analyses of mortality or morbidity data when the age-specific mortality/morbidity experience is a function of age or when there is an interaction effect between confounding variables needs to be evaluated. ^

Thorium and radiocarbon measurements on sediment cores from the Northseast Atlantic

Radiocarbon and 230Thexcess data from six NE Atlantic box cores are considered. The cores form a transect from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain over the East Thulean Rise to the southern end of Feni Drift. The chronology for the cores is established from bulk sediment carbonate radiocarbon data and reveals that sections exhibiting constant accumulation rates can be identified in all the cores, with rates of 3.0-3.5 cm/kyr on the plain through the Holocene and late Holocene rates of 4.3-6.6 cm/kyr elsewhere. Five out of the six cores show accumulations of more 230Thexcess than is produced in the overlying water column, with the greatest inventories (up to 225% of production) in the cores from the rise and drift. A size fraction comparison between two cores from the plain and rise reveals that the higher overall accumulation rates and 230Thexcess inventories in the off-plain cores are due to an increased fine (<5 µm) component fraction, whereas the flux of coarser material is similar to that received on the plain. This suggests that the higher fluxes of materials observed are physically (rather than biogeochemically) driven and also that drift formation has been continuously active in the late Holocene. Sections of all the cores where regular accumulation is defined by the radiocarbon data are modeled first by a linear radiocarbon age/depth model and second by a constant rain (230Thexcess)0 model prorated for the observed core inventories. These modeling approaches yield historical mass accumulation rate estimates which are generally in reasonable agreement (±30%), but the differences observed appear to be well organized in time rather than random.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of late glacial and Holocene sediments from Laguna Potrok Aike, Patagonia

A high-resolution multiproxy geochemical approach was applied to the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike in an attempt to reconstruct moist and dry periods during the past 16 000 years in southeastern Patagonia. The age-depth model is inferred from AMS 14C dates and tephrochronology, and suggests moist conditions during the Lateglacial and early Holocene (16 000-8700 cal. BP) interrupted by drier conditions before the beginning of the Holocene (13 200-11 400 cal. BP). Data also imply that this period was a major warm phase in southeastern Patagonia and was approximately contemporaneous with the Younger Dryas chronozone in the Northern Hemisphere (12 700-11 500 cal. BP). After 8650 cal. BP a major drought may have caused the lowest lake level of the record. Since 7300 cal. BP, the lake level rose and was variable until the 'Little Ice Age', which was the dominant humid period after 8650 cal. BP.

Holocene sedimentation rates in the Northwest Passage

Palynological, geochemical, and physical records were used to document Holocene paleoceanographic changes in marine sediment core from Dease Strait in the western part of the main axis of the Northwest Passage (core 2005-804-006 PC latitude 68°59.552'N, longitude 106°34.413'W). Quantitative estimates of past sea surface conditions were inferred from the modern analog technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. The chronology of core 2005-804-006 PC is based on a combined use of the paleomagnetic secular variation records and the CALS7K.2 time-varying spherical harmonic model of the geomagnetic field. The age-depth model indicates that the core spans the last ~7700 cal years B.P., with a sedimentation rate of 61 cm/ka. The reconstructed sea surface parameters were compared with those from Barrow Strait and Lancaster Sound (cores 2005-804-004 PC and 2004-804-009 PC, respectively), which allowed us to draw a millennial-scale Holocene sea ice history along the main axis of the Northwest Passage (MANWP). Overall, our data are in good agreement with previous studies based on bowhead whale remains. However, dinoflagellate sea surface based reconstructions suggest several new features. The presence of dinoflagellate cysts in the three cores for most of the Holocene indicates that the MANWP was partially ice-free over the last 10,000 years. This suggests that the recent warming observed in the MANWP could be part of the natural climate variability at the millennial time scale, whereas anthropogenic forcing could have accelerated the warming over the past decades. We associate Holocene climate variability in the MANWP with a large-scale atmospheric pattern, such as the Arctic Oscillation, which may have operated since the early Holocene. In addition to a large-scale pattern, more local conditions such as coastal current, tidal effects, or ice cap proximity may have played a role on the regional sea ice cover. These findings highlight the need to further develop regional investigations in the Arctic to provide realistic boundary conditions for climatic simulations.

Biomagnetostratigraphy of ODP Leg 189 sites

Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian)-Quaternary summary biostratigraphies are presented for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 189 Sites 1168 (West Tasmanian Margin), 1170 and 1171 (South Tasman Rise), and 1172 (East Tasman Plateau). The age models are calibrated to magnetostratigraphy and integrate both calcareous (planktonic foraminifers and nannofossils) and siliceous (diatoms and radiolarians) microfossil groups with organic walled microfossils (organic walled dinoflagellate cysts, or dinocysts). We also incorporate benthic oxygen isotope stratigraphies into the upper Quaternary parts of the age models for further control. The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary age-depth model for all deep-penetrating sites of Leg 189 incorporating updated shipboard biostratigraphic data with new information obtained during the 3 yr since the cruise. In this respect we provide a report of work to November 2003, not a final synthesis of the biomagnetostratigraphy of Leg 189, yet we present the most complete integrated age model for these sites at this time. Detailed information of the stratigraphy of individual fossil groups, paleomagnetism, and isotope data are presented elsewhere. Ongoing efforts aim toward further integration of age information for Leg 189 sites and will include an attempt to correlate zonation schemes for all the major microfossil groups and detailed correlation between all sites.

Calcareous nannofossil abundance and datum events of ODP Holes 181-1123C and 181-1124C, southwest Pacific

Seven sites were drilled off the eastern shore of New Zealand during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 181 to gain knowledge of southwest Pacific ocean history, in particular, the evolution of the Pacific Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Holes 1123C and 1124C penetrated lower Oligocene to middle Eocene sediments containing moderately to poorly preserved calcareous nannofossils. Nannofossil assemblages show signs of dissolution and overgrowth, but key marker species can be identified. Nannofossil abundance ranges from abundant to barren. The lower Oligocene sediments are distinctly separated from the overlying Neogene sequences by the Marshall Paraconformity, a regional marker of environmental and sea level change. An age-depth model for Hole 1123C through this sequence was constructed using nine nannofossil age datums and three magnetostratigraphic datums. There is good agreement between the biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy, which indicates that the Marshall Paraconformity spans ~12 m.y. in Hole 1123C. The same sequence in Hole 1124C is disrupted by at least three hiatuses, complicating interpretation of the sedimentation history. The Marshall Paraconformity spans at least 3 m.y. in Hole 1124C. A 4- m.y. gap separates lower Oligocene and middle Eocene sediments, and a ~15 m.y. hiatus separates middle Eocene mudstones from middle Paleocene nannofossil-bearing mudstones. Nannofossil biostratigraphy from Holes 1123C and 1124C indicates that the Eocene-Oligocene transition was a time of fluctuating biota and intensification of the DWBC along the New Zealand margin.

Fossil pollen record of composite sediment core TMD from Tso Moriri, analysis of modern surface pollen samples, mean annual precipitation reconstruction, and digitisation and recalibration of different discussed palaeoclimate proxy records

This paper presents a new fossil pollen record from Tso Moriri (32°54'N, 78°19'E, 4512 m a.s.l.) and seeks to reconstruct changes in mean annual precipitation (MAP) during the last 12,000 years. This high-alpine lake occupies an area of 140 km**2 in a glacial-tectonic valley in the northwestern Himalaya. The region has a cold climate, with a MAP <300 mm, and open vegetation. The hydrology is controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but winter westerly-associated precipitation also affects the regional water balance. Results indicate that precipitation levels varied significantly during the Holocene. After a rapid increase in MAP, a phase of maximum humidity was reached between ca. 11 to 9.6 cal ka BP, followed by a gradual decline in MAP. This trend parallels the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Comparison of different palaeoclimate proxy records reveal evidence for a stronger Holocene decrease in precipitation in the northern versus the southern parts of the ISM domain. The long-term trend of ISM weakening is overlaid with several short periods of greater dryness, which are broadly synchronous with the North Atlantic cold spells, suggesting reduced amounts of westerly-associated winter precipitation. Compared to the mid and late Holocene, it appears that westerlies had a greater influence on the western parts of the ISM domain during the early Holocene. During this period, the westerly-associated summer precipitation belt was positioned at Mediterranean latitudes and amplified the ISM-derived precipitation. The Tso Moriri pollen record and moisture reconstructions also suggest that changes in climatic conditions affected the ancient Harappan Civilisation, which flourished in the greater Indus Valley from approximately 5.2 to 3 cal ka BP. The prolonged Holocene trend towards aridity, punctuated by an interval of increased dryness (between ca. 4.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP), may have pushed the Mature Harappan urban settlements (between ca. 4.5 to 3.9 cal ka BP) to develop more efficient agricultural practices to deal with the increasingly acute water shortages. The amplified aridity associated with North Atlantic cooling between ca. 4 to 3.6 and around 3.2 cal ka BP further hindered local agriculture, possibly causing the deurbanisation that occurred from ca. 3.9 cal ka BP and eventual collapse of the Harappan Civilisation between ca. 3.5 to 3 cal ka BP.

Diatom biostratigraphy, Argon ages and chronology of ODP Hole 183-1138A

A thick Neogene section was recovered in the upper ~300 m of Ocean Drilling Program Hole 1138A, drilled on the Central Kerguelen Plateau in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Sediment lithologies consist primarily of mixed carbonate and biosiliceous clays and oozes, with several thin (1-3 cm) tephra horizons. The tephras are glass rich, well sorted, and dominantly trachytic to rhyolitic in composition. Volcaniclastic material in these horizons is interpreted to have originated from Heard Island, 180 km northwest of Site 1138, and was likely emplaced through both primary ash fall and turbiditic, submarine flows. A Neogene age-depth model for Hole 1138A is constructed primarily from 36 diatom biostratigraphic datums. Nannofossil and planktonic foraminifer biostratigraphy provides supporting age information. Additionally, four high-precision 40Ar-39Ar ages are derived from ash and tephra horizons, and these radiometric ages are in close agreement with the biostratigraphic ages. The integrated age-depth model reveals a reasonably complete lower Miocene to upper Pleistocene section in Hole 1138A, with the exception of a ~1-m.y. hiatus at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary. Another possible hiatus is also identified at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary. High Neogene sedimentation rates and the presence of both calcareous and siliceous microfossils, combined with datable tephra horizons, establish Site 1138 as a suitable target for future drilling legs with paleoceanographic objectives. This report also proposes two new diatom species, Fragilariopsis heardensis and Azpeitia harwoodii, from Pliocene strata of Hole 1138A.

On the optimal ratio of heavy to light chain genes for efficient recombinant antibody production by CHO cells

Monoclonal antibodies (Mab) are heterotetramers consisting of an equimolar ratio of heavy chain (HC) and light chain (LC) polypeptides. Accordingly, most recombinant Mab expression systems utilize an equimolar ratio of heavy chain (he) to light chain (lc) genes encoded on either one or two plasmids. However, there is no evidence to suggest that this gene ratio is optimal for stable or transient production of recombinant Mab. In this study we have determined the optimal ratio of hc:lc genes for production of a recombinant IgG(4) Mab, cB72.3, by Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells using both empirical and mathematical modeling approaches. Polyethyleneimine-mediated transient expression of cB72.3 at varying ratios of hc:lc genes encoded on separate plasmids yielded an optimal Mab titer at a hc:lc gene ratio of 3:2; a conclusion confirmed by separate mathematical modeling of the Mab folding and assembly process using transient expression data. On the basis of this information, we hypothesized that utilization of he genes at low hc:lc gene ratios is more efficient. To confirm this, cB72.3 Mab was transiently produced by CHO cells at constant he and varying lc gene dose. Under these conditions, Mab yield was increased with a concomitant increase in lc gene dose. To determine if the above findings also apply to stably transfected CHO cells producing recombinant Mab, we compared the intra- and extracellular ratios of HC and LC polypeptides for three GS-CHO cells lines transfected with a 1:1 ratio of hc:lc genes and selected for stable expression of the same recombinant Mab, cB72.3. Intra- and extracellular HC:LC polypeptide ratios ranged from 1:2 to 1:5, less than that observed on transient expression of the same Mab in parental CHO cells using the same vector. In conclusion, our data suggest that the optimal ratio of hc:lc genes used for transient and stable expression of Mab differ. In the case of the latter, we infer that optimal Mab production by stably transfected cells represents a compromise between HC abundance limiting productivity and the requirement for excess LC to render Mab folding and assembly more efficient.

An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design

As levels of investment in advanced manufacturing systems increase, effective project management becomes ever more critical. This paper demonstrates how the model proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret in 1976, which structures complicated strategic decision processes, can be applied to the design of new production systems for both descriptive and analytical research purposes. This paper sets a detailed case study concerning the design and development of an advanced manufacturing system within the Mintzberg decision model and so breaks down the decision sequence into constituent parts. It thus shows how a structured model can provide a framework for the researcher who wishes to study decision episodes in the design of manufacturing facilities in greater depth.

Application of an Acceleration Scheme

In this paper we propose an optimized algorithm, which is faster compared to previously described finite difference acceleration scheme, namely the Modified Super-Time-Stepping (Modified STS) scheme for age-structured population models with difusion.

Radiocarbon ages, grain sizes, paleomagentic properties and XRF data of Lake Nam Co sediments, Tibetan Plateau

In September 2008 several cores (68 cm-115 cm length) (water depth: 93 m) were retrieved from Lake Nam Co (southern-central Tibetan Plateau; 4718 m a.s.l.). This study focuses on the interpretation of high-resolution (partly 0.2 cm) data from three gravity cores and the upper part of a 10.4 m long piston core, i.e., the past 4000 cal BP in terms of lake level changes, hydrological variations in the catchment area and consequently variations in monsoon strength. A wide spectrum of sedimentological, geochemical and mineralogical investigations was carried out. Results are presented for XRF core-scans, grain size distribution, XRD-measurements and SEM-image analyses. These data are complemented by an age-depth model using 210Pb and 137Cs analyses as well as eleven AMS-14C-ages. This model is supported by excellent agreement between secular variations determined on one of the gravity cores to geomagnetic field models. This is a significant improvement of the chronology as most catchments of lacustrine systems on the Tibetan Plateau contain carbonates resulting in an unknown reservoir effect for radiocarbon dates. The good correlation of our record to the geomagnetic field models confirms our age-depth model and indicates only insignificant changes in the reservoir effect throughout the last 4 ka. High (summer-) monsoonal activity, i.e. moist environmental conditions, was detected in our record between approximately 4000 and 1950 cal BP as well as between 1480 and 1200 cal BP. Accordingly, lower monsoon activity prevails in periods between the two intervals and thereafter. This pattern shows a good correlation to the variability of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) as recorded in a peat bog ~1000 km in NE direction from Lake Nam Co. This is the first time that such a supra regional homogenous monsoon activity is shown on the Tibetan Plateau and beyond. Finally our data show a significant lake level rise after the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Lake Nam Co which is suggested to be linked to glacier melting in consequence of rising temperatures occurring on the whole Tibetan Plateau during this time.

Bulk density, and peat and net carbon accumulation of samples from Selwyn lake, Canada

Peat and net carbon accumulation rates in two sub-arctic peat plateaus of west-central Canada have been studied through geochemical analyses and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating. The peatland sites started to develop around 6600-5900 cal. yr BP and the peat plateau stages are characterized by Sphagnum fuscum peat alternating with rootlet layers. The long-term peat and net carbon accumulation rates for both profiles are 0.30-0.31 mm/yr and 12.5-12.7 gC/m**2/yr, respectively. These values reflect very slow peat accumulation (0.04-0.09 mm/yr) and net carbon accumulation (3.7-5.2 gC/m**2/yr) in the top rootlet layers. Extensive AMS radiocarbon dating of one profile shows that accumulation rates are variable depending on peat plateau stage. Peat accumulation rates are up to six times higher and net carbon accumulation rates up to four times higher in S. fuscum than in rootlet stages. Local fires represented by charcoal remains in some of the rootlet layers result in very low accumulation rates. High C/N ratios throughout most of the peat profiles suggest low degrees of decomposition due to stable permafrost conditions. Hence, original peat accretion has remained largely unaltered, except in the initial stages of peatland development when permafrost was not yet present.