Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Random perturbations of stochastic processes with unbounded variable length memory

We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the algorithm Context, provided that the noise is small enough.

On compliance of business processes with business contracts

This paper addresses the problem of ensuring compliance of business processes, implemented within and across organisational boundaries, with the constraints stated in related business contracts. In order to deal with the complexity of this problem we propose two solutions that allow for a systematic and increasingly automated support for addressing two specific compliance issues. One solution provides a set of guidelines for progressively transforming contract conditions into business processes that are consistent with contract conditions thus avoiding violation of the rules in contract. Another solution compares rules in business contracts and rules in business processes to check for possible inconsistencies. Both approaches rely on a computer interpretable representation of contract conditions that embodies contract semantics. This semantics is described in terms of a logic based formalism allowing for the description of obligations, prohibitions, permissions and violations conditions in contracts. This semantics was based on an analysis of typical building blocks of many commercial, financial and government contracts. The study proved that our contract formalism provides a good foundation for describing key types of conditions in contracts, and has also given several insights into valuable transformation techniques and formalisms needed to establish better alignment between these two, traditionally separate areas of research and endeavour. The study also revealed a number of new areas of research, some of which we intend to address in near future.

Root Secretion of Defense-related Proteins Is Development-dependent and Correlated with Flowering Time

Proteins found in the root exudates are thought to play a role in the interactions between plants and soil organisms. To gain a better understanding of protein secretion by roots, we conducted a systematic proteomic analysis of the root exudates of Arabidopsis thaliana at different plant developmental stages. In total, we identified 111 proteins secreted by roots, the majority of which were exuded constitutively during all stages of development. However, defense-related proteins such as chitinases, glucanases, myrosinases, and others showed enhanced secretion during flowering. Defense-impaired mutants npr1-1 and NahG showed lower levels of secretion of defense proteins at flowering compared with the wild type. The flowering-defective mutants fca-1, stm-4, and co-1 showed almost undetectable levels of defense proteins in their root exudates at similar time points. In contrast, root secretions of defense-enhanced cpr5-2 mutants showed higher levels of defense proteins. The proteomics data were positively correlated with enzymatic activity assays for defense proteins and with in silico gene expression analysis of genes specifically expressed in roots of Arabidopsis. In conclusion, our results show a clear correlation between defense-related proteins secreted by roots and flowering time.

Septic shock caused by Plesiomonas shigelloides in a patient with sickle beta-zero thalassemia

Invasive infection and extraintestinal complications are rarely caused by Plesiomonas shigelloides, a water-borne bacterium belonging to the Vibrionaceae family. We report a case of a 16-year-old female patient with sickle beta-zero thalassemia who survived septic shock caused by P. shigelloides associated with secondary acute respiratory distress syndrome and disseminated intravascular coagulation. Treatment with a carbapenem was successful, and the patient recovered without any sequelae. The previous reports of P. shigelloides sepsis are cited, and possible pathogenic mechanisms are discussed. (Heart Lung (R) 2010;39:335-339.)

Branching processes and computational collapse of discretized unimodal mappings

In computer simulations of smooth dynamical systems, the original phase space is replaced by machine arithmetic, which is a finite set. The resulting spatially discretized dynamical systems do not inherit all functional properties of the original systems, such as surjectivity and existence of absolutely continuous invariant measures. This can lead to computational collapse to fixed points or short cycles. The paper studies loss of such properties in spatial discretizations of dynamical systems induced by unimodal mappings of the unit interval. The problem reduces to studying set-valued negative semitrajectories of the discretized system. As the grid is refined, the asymptotic behavior of the cardinality structure of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws corresponding to a branching process. The transition probabilities of this process are explicitly calculated. These results are illustrated by the example of the discretized logistic mapping.

Brownian bridge and other path-dependent Gaussian processes vectorial simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.

Development of integrated separation processes with green solvents

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química Sustentável

Improvign mixing processes with the help of numerical tools

In several industrial applications, highly complex behaviour materials are used together with intricate mixing processes, which difficult the achievement of the desired properties for the produced materials. This is the case of the well-known dispersion of nano-sized fillers in a melt polymer matrix, used to improve the nanocomposite mechanical and/or electrical properties. This mixing is usually performed in twin-screw extruders, that promote complex flow patterns, and, since an in loco analysis of the material evolution and mixing is difficult to perform, numerical tools can be very useful to predict the evolution and behaviour of the material. This work presents a numerical based study to improve the understanding of mixing processes. Initial numerical studies were performed with generalized Newtonian fluids, but, due to the null relaxation time that characterize this type of fluids, the assumption of viscoelastic behavior was required. Therefore, the polymer melt was rheologically characterized, and, a six mode Phan-Thien-Tanner and Giesekus models were used to fit the rheological data. These viscoelastic rheological models were used to model the process. The conclusions obtained in this work provide additional and useful data to correlate the type and intensity of the deformation history promoted to the polymer nanocomposite and the quality of the mixing obtained.

Selecting negotiation processes with Health Care

We address the question of how a third-party payer (e.g. an insurer) decides what providers to contract with. Three different mechanisms are studied and their properties compared. A first mechanism consists in the third-party payer setting up a bargaining procedure with both providers jointly and simultaneously. A second mechanism envisages the outcome of the same simultaneous bargaining but independently with every provider. Finally, the last mechanism is of different nature. It is the so-called "any willing provider" where the third-party payer announces a contract and every provider freely decides to sign it or not. The main finding is that the decision of the third-party payer depends on the surplus to be shared. When it is relatively high the third-party payer prefers the any willing provider system. When, on the contrary, the surplus is relatively low, the third-party payer will select one of the other two systems accor ing to how bargaining power is distributed.

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Irreversible thermodynamics of Poisson processes with reaction

A kinetic model is derived to study the successive movements of particles, described by a Poisson process, as well as their generation. The irreversible thermodynamics of this system is also studied from the kinetic model. This makes it possible to evaluate the differences between thermodynamical quantities computed exactly and up to second-order. Such differences determine the range of validity of the second-order approximation to extended irreversible thermodynamics