951 resultados para Acarina, weighted mean depth
Resumo:
Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.
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The tackling of coastal eutrophication requires water protection measures based on status assessments of water quality. The main purpose of this thesis was to evaluate whether it is possible both scientifically and within the terms of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) to assess the status of coastal marine waters reliably by using phytoplankton biomass (ww) and chlorophyll a (Chl) as indicators of eutrophication in Finnish coastal waters. Empirical approaches were used to study whether the criteria, established for determining an indicator, are fulfilled. The first criterion (i) was that an indicator should respond to anthropogenic stresses in a predictable manner and has low variability in its response. Summertime Chl could be predicted accurately by nutrient concentrations, but not from the external annual loads alone, because of the rapid affect of primary production and sedimentation close to the loading sources in summer. The most accurate predictions were achieved in the Archipelago Sea, where total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) alone accounted for 87% and 78% of the variation in Chl, respectively. In river estuaries, the TP mass-balance regression model predicted Chl most accurately when nutrients originated from point-sources, whereas land-use regression models were most accurate in cases when nutrients originated mainly from diffuse sources. The inclusion of morphometry (e.g. mean depth) into nutrient models improved accuracy of the predictions. The second criterion (ii) was associated with the WFD. It requires that an indicator should have type-specific reference conditions, which are defined as "conditions where the values of the biological quality elements are at high ecological status". In establishing reference conditions, the empirical approach could only be used in the outer coastal water types, where historical observations of Secchi depth of the early 1900s are available. The most accurate prediction was achieved in the Quark. In the inner coastal water types, reference Chl, estimated from present monitoring data, are imprecise - not only because of the less accurate estimation method but also because the intrinsic characteristics, described for instance by morphometry, vary considerably inside these extensive inner coastal types. As for phytoplankton biomass, the reference values were less accurate than in the case of Chl, because it was possible to estimate reference conditions for biomass only by using the reconstructed Chl values, not the historical Secchi observations. An paleoecological approach was also applied to estimate annual average reference conditions for Chl. In Laajalahti, an urban embayment off Helsinki, strongly loaded by municipal waste waters in the 1960s and 1970s, reference conditions prevailed in the mid- and late 1800s. The recovery of the bay from pollution has been delayed as a consequence of benthic release of nutrients. Laajalahti will probably not achieve the good quality objectives of the WFD on time. The third criterion (iii) was associated with coastal management including the resources it has available. Analyses of Chl are cheap and fast to carry out compared to the analyses of phytoplankton biomass and species composition; the fact which has an effect on number of samples to be taken and thereby on the reliability of assessments. However, analyses on phytoplankton biomass and species composition provide more metrics for ecological classification, the metrics which reveal various aspects of eutrophication contrary to what Chl alone does.
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Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and the evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce new global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990-2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were then applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990 – 2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world’s population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries, in contrast to increases estimated in South Asia, throughout much of Southeast Asia, and in China. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased in most countries from 1990 - 2013, with modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.
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Impacts of climate change on hydrology are assessed by downscaling large scale general circulation model (GCM) outputs of climate variables to local scale hydrologic variables. This modelling approach is characterized by uncertainties resulting from the use of different models, different scenarios, etc. Modelling uncertainty in climate change impact assessment includes assigning weights to GCMs and scenarios, based on their performances, and providing weighted mean projection for the future. This projection is further used for water resources planning and adaptation to combat the adverse impacts of climate change. The present article summarizes the recent published work of the authors on uncertainty modelling and development of adaptation strategies to climate change for the Mahanadi river in India.
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This paper considers the design and analysis of a filter at the receiver of a source coding system to mitigate the excess distortion caused due to channel errors. The index output by the source encoder is sent over a fading discrete binary symmetric channel and the possibly incorrect received index is mapped to the corresponding codeword by a Vector Quantization (VQ) decoder at the receiver. The output of the VQ decoder is then processed by a receive filter to obtain an estimate of the source instantiation. The distortion performance is analyzed for weighted mean square error (WMSE) and the optimum receive filter that minimizes the expected distortion is derived for two different cases of fading. It is shown that the performance of the system with the receive filter is strictly better than that of a conventional VQ and the difference becomes more significant as the number of bits transmitted increases. Theoretical expressions for an upper and lower bound on the WMSE performance of the system with the receive filter and a Rayleigh flat fading channel are derived. The design of a receive filter in the presence of channel mismatch is also studied and it is shown that a minimax solution is the one obtained by designing the receive filter for the worst possible channel. Simulation results are presented to validate the theoretical expressions and illustrate the benefits of receive filtering.
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An important question in kernel regression is one of estimating the order and bandwidth parameters from available noisy data. We propose to solve the problem within a risk estimation framework. Considering an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Gaussian observations model, we use Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) to estimate a weighted mean-square error (MSE) risk, and optimize it with respect to the order and bandwidth parameters. The two parameters are thus spatially adapted in such a manner that noise smoothing and fine structure preservation are simultaneously achieved. On the application side, we consider the problem of image restoration from uniform/non-uniform data, and show that the SURE approach to spatially adaptive kernel regression results in better quality estimation compared with its spatially non-adaptive counterparts. The denoising results obtained are comparable to those obtained using other state-of-the-art techniques, and in some scenarios, superior.
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This study considers linear filtering methods for minimising the end-to-end average distortion of a fixed-rate source quantisation system. For the source encoder, both scalar and vector quantisation are considered. The codebook index output by the encoder is sent over a noisy discrete memoryless channel whose statistics could be unknown at the transmitter. At the receiver, the code vector corresponding to the received index is passed through a linear receive filter, whose output is an estimate of the source instantiation. Under this setup, an approximate expression for the average weighted mean-square error (WMSE) between the source instantiation and the reconstructed vector at the receiver is derived using high-resolution quantisation theory. Also, a closed-form expression for the linear receive filter that minimises the approximate average WMSE is derived. The generality of framework developed is further demonstrated by theoretically analysing the performance of other adaptation techniques that can be employed when the channel statistics are available at the transmitter also, such as joint transmit-receive linear filtering and codebook scaling. Monte Carlo simulation results validate the theoretical expressions, and illustrate the improvement in the average distortion that can be obtained using linear filtering techniques.
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Approximately 140 million years ago, the Indian plate separated from Gondwana and migrated by almost 90 degrees latitude to its current location, forming the Himalayan-Tibetan system. Large discrepancies exist in the rate of migration of Indian plate during Phanerozoic. Here we describe a new approach to paleo-latitudinal reconstruction based on simultaneous determination of carbonate formation temperature and delta O-18 of soil carbonates, constrained by the abundances of C-13-O-18 bonds in palaeosol carbonates. Assuming that the palaeosol carbonates have a strong relationship with the composition of the meteoric water, delta O-18 carbonate of palaeosol can constrain paleo-latitudinal position. Weighted mean annual rainfall delta O-18 water values measured at several stations across the southern latitudes are used to derive a polynomial equation: delta(18)Ow = -0.006 x (LAT)(2) - 0.294 x (LAT) - 5.29 which is used for latitudinal reconstruction. We use this approach to show the northward migration of the Indian plate from 46.8 +/- 5.8 degrees S during the Permian (269 M. y.) to 30 +/- 11 degrees S during the Triassic (248 M. y.), 14.7 +/- 8.7 degrees S during the early Cretaceous (135 M. y.), and 28 +/- 8.8 degrees S during the late Cretaceous ( 68 M. y.). Soil carbonate delta O-18 provides an alternative method for tracing the latitudinal position of Indian plate in the past and the estimates are consistent with the paleo-magnetic records which document the position of Indian plate prior to 135 +/- 3 M. y.
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A limnological and fish survey program was developed on 112 lakes and reservoirs of Argentina during the summers of 1984 to 1987. Bathymetric surveys with a SIMRAD Skipper 411 model echosounder and line and lead were conducted on more than 40 lakes. This report presents bathymetric maps for seventeen lakes and reservoirs situated in Patagonian Andes Region and Patagonian Plateau betweem 38°53'S and 45°30'S. The bathymetric maps for two reservoirs were made from topographic maps before impoundment. Hypsographic and depth-area curves, and some morphometric parameters are presented for twenty one Patagonian lakes. Mean depth ranged from 2.0 to 111 m. The deepest lakes are situated in Patagonian Andes Region. Colhue Huapi Lake on Patagonian Plateau, is very shallow, having a mean depth of 2.0 m and being 810 km. in surface area.
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A study of aquatic plant biomass within Cayuga Lake, New York spans twelve years from 1987-1998. The exotic Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) decreased in the northwest end of the lake from 55% of the total biomass in 1987 to 0.4% in 1998 and within the southwest end from 50% in 1987 to 11% in 1998. Concurrent with the watermilfoil decline was the resurgence of native species of submersed macrophytes. During this time we recorded for the first time in Cayuga Lake two herbivorous insect species: the aquatic moth Acentria ephemerella , first observed in 1991, and the aquatic weevil Euhrychiopsis lecontei , first found in 1996 . Densities of Acentria in southwest Cayuga Lake averaged 1.04 individuals per apical meristem of Eurasian watermilfoil for the three-year period 1996-1998. These same meristems had Euhrychiopsis densities on average of only 0.02 individuals per apical meristem over the same three-year period. A comparison of herbivore densities and lake sizes from five lakes in 1997 shows that Acentria densities correlate positively with lake surface area and mean depth, while Euhrychiopsis densities correlate negatively with lake surface area and mean depth. In these five lakes, Acentria densities correlate negatively with percent composition and dry mass of watermilfoil. However, Euhrychiopsis densities correlate positively with percent composition and dry mass of watermilfoil. Finally, Acentria densities correlate negatively with Euhrychiopsis densities suggesting interspecific competition.
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Expendable bathythermograph data collected by the Ships of Opportunity (SOOP) - Ocean Monitoring Program are analyzed for seasonal and inter-annual variations of the cold pool. Two major SOOP transects within the Middle Atlantic Bight (Southern New England and New York) have been analyzed for the years common to both (1977-81). During the years 1977-81, over 200 transects were occupied, and almost 3,000 XBT's were dropped. Results show that the cold pool is formed with the onset of spring warming and persists until fall overturn, is consistent year to year in both area and weighted average annual temperature, and advects water from the northeast to the southwest. Results also show a 100-d lag in minimum temperature between the Southern New England and New York transects. DitTerences in bathymetry between the two transects and their influence on the cold pool are also discussed. Plots of average (1977-81) bottom temperature for both transects are discussed and show consistent annual weighted mean temperature and areas. Bottom temperature plots for individual years, as well as maximum and minimum bottom temperature plots, are presented as Appendix figures. (PDF file contains 28 pages.)
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ENGLISH: Seasonal changes in the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight are determined mainly by the latitudinal movements of the ITCZ over the region. Evaporation is about 980 mm annually. Rainfall is probably much less than previous estimates because of a discontinuity in the ITCZ. Freshwater runoff from the northern watershed varies from 22 X 109 m3/mo in October-November to 11 X 109 m3/mo in February-March; from the southeastern watershed it varies from 16 X 109 m3/mo in April-June to 9 X 109 m3/mo in October-December. Total annual runoff is about 350 X 109m3. A marked salinity front is found at all seasons off the eastern shore. In the northern part of the Bight temperatures in the upper layers remained fairly constant from May to November; by February the mean temperature had decreased by 4°C and sharp gradients existed in the geographic distributions. Salinities in the upper layers decreased steadily from May to November; by February the mean salinity had increased by 2.5‰. The mean depth of the mixed layer increased from 27 m in May to 40 m in November; by February upwelling decreased it to 18 m. Between November and February upwelling had doubled the amount of P04-P and tripled that of NO3-N in the euphotic zone; surface phytoplankton production and standing crop, and zooplankton concentrations also doubled during this period. Upwelling was about 1.5 m/mo during May-November and about 9.0 m/mo during November-February, the annual total is about 48 m, Mean primary production is about 0.3 gC/m2day during May-December and about 0.6 gC/m2day during January-April; annual production is about 140 gC/m2. A thermal ridge occurred in February running from the northern to the southwestern part of the Bight. Within this ridge was a marked thermal dome coinciding with the center of the cyclonic circulation cell. Upwelling in the dome averaged 16 m/mo in November-February. The fisheries of the Panama Bight annually produce about 30,000 metric tons of food species and about 68,000 m.t. of species used for reduction. Most attempts to further the understanding of tuna ecology were unsuccessful. The apparent abundances of yellowfin and skipjack in the northern part of the Bight appear to be related to the seasonal cycle of upwelling and enrichment, as abundances are greatest in April and May when food appears to be plentiful. The life-cycle of the anchoveta in the Gulf of Panama also appears to be related to upwelling; the species mass varies from about 39,000 m.t. in December to about 169,000 m.t, in April. About 19.1 X 1012 anchoveta eggs are spawned annually. The life-cycles of shrimp in the Panama Bight appear to be related to upwelling as catches are greatest in May-July, about 3-5 months after peak upwelling, and annual catches are inversely correlated with sea level. SPANISH: Los cambios estacionales en la climatología, oceanografía y pesquerías del Panamá Bight están determinados principalmente por el movimiento latitudinal sobre la región de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical (ZCIT). La evaporación es de unos 980 mm al año. La pluviosidad es probablemente muy inferior a las estimaciones previas a causa de la descontinuidad en la ZCIT. El drenaje de agua dulce, de la vertiente septentrional, varía de 22 x 109m3/mes en octubre-noviembre hasta 11 x 109m3/mes en febreromarzo; el de la vertiente sudeste varía de 16 x 109m3/mes en abril-junio a 9 x 109m3/mes en octubre-diciembre. El drenaje total, anual, es alrededor de 350 x 109m3. En todas las estaciones frente al litoral oriental se encuentra un frente de salinidad marcada. En la parte septentrional del Bight las temperaturas en las capas superiores permanecieron más bien constantes de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la temperatura media había disminuido en unos 4°C y existieron gradientes agudos en las distribuciones geográficas. Las salinidades en las capas superiores disminuyeron constantemente de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la salinidad media había aumentado en 2.5‰. La profundidad media de la capa mixta aumentó de 27 m en mayo a 40 m en noviembre; en febrero el afloramiento disminuyó el espesor de la capa mixta hasta 18 m. Entre noviembre y febrero el afloramiento había duplicado la cantidad de PO4-P y triplicado la de NO3-N en la zona eufótica; la producción superficial de fitoplancton y la biomasa primaria y las concentraciones de zooplancton también se duplicaron durante este período. El afloramiento era cerca de 1.5 mimes durante mayo-noviembre y de unos 9.0 mimes durante noviembre-febrero, el total anual es de unos 48 m. La producción media primaria es aproximadamente de 0.3 gC/m2 al día durante mayo-diciembre y cerca de 0.6 gC/m2 al día durante enero-abril; la producción anual es de unos 140 gC/m2. En febrero apareció una convexidad termal que se extendió de la parte norte a la parte sudoeste del Bight. Dentro de esta convexidad se encontró un domo termal marcado el cual coincidió con el centro de la circulación ciclonal de la célula. El afloramiento en el domo tuvo un promedio de 16 mimes en noviembre-febrero. Las pesquerías del Panamá Bight producen anualmente de cerca 30,000 toneladas métricas de especies alimenticias y unas 68,000 t.m. de especies usadas para la reducción. La mayoría de los esfuerzos realizados con el fin de adquirir más conocimiento sobre la ecología del atún no tuvo éxito. La abundancia aparente del atún aleta amarilla y del barrilete en la parte septentrional del Bight parece estar relacionada con el ciclo estacional del afloramiento y del enriquecimiento, ya que la abundancia mayor en abril y mayo cuando parece que hay abundancia es de alimento. El ciclo de vida de la anchoveta en el Golfo de Panamá parece también que está relacionada al afloramiento. La masa de la especie varía de unas 39,000 t.m. en diciembre a cerca de 169,000 t.m. en abril. Aproximadamente 19.1 x 1012 huevos de anchoveta son desovados anualmente. Los ciclos de vida del camarón en el Panamá Bight parecen estar relacionados con el afloramiento ya que las capturas son superiores en mayo-julio, unos 3-5 meses después del ápice del afloramiento, y las capturas anuales se correlacionan inversamente con el nivel del mar. (PDF contains 340 pages.)
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Large quantities of teleseismic short-period seismograms recorded at SCARLET provide travel time, apparent velocity and waveform data for study of upper mantle compressional velocity structure. Relative array analysis of arrival times from distant (30° < Δ < 95°) earthquakes at all azimuths constrains lateral velocity variations beneath southern California. We compare dT/dΔ back azimuth and averaged arrival time estimates from the entire network for 154 events to the same parameters derived from small subsets of SCARLET. Patterns of mislocation vectors for over 100 overlapping subarrays delimit the spatial extent of an east-west striking, high-velocity anomaly beneath the Transverse Ranges. Thin lens analysis of the averaged arrival time differences, called 'net delay' data, requires the mean depth of the corresponding lens to be more than 100 km. Our results are consistent with the PKP-delay times of Hadley and Kanamori (1977), who first proposed the high-velocity feature, but we place the anomalous material at substantially greater depths than their 40-100 km estimate.
Detailed analysis of travel time, ray parameter and waveform data from 29 events occurring in the distance range 9° to 40° reveals the upper mantle structure beneath an oceanic ridge to depths of over 900 km. More than 1400 digital seismograms from earthquakes in Mexico and Central America yield 1753 travel times and 58 dT/dΔ measurements as well as high-quality, stable waveforms for investigation of the deep structure of the Gulf of California. The result of a travel time inversion with the tau method (Bessonova et al., 1976) is adjusted to fit the p(Δ) data, then further refined by incorporation of relative amplitude information through synthetic seismogram modeling. The application of a modified wave field continuation method (Clayton and McMechan, 1981) to the data with the final model confirms that GCA is consistent with the entire data set and also provides an estimate of the data resolution in velocity-depth space. We discover that the upper mantle under this spreading center has anomalously slow velocities to depths of 350 km, and place new constraints on the shape of the 660 km discontinuity.
Seismograms from 22 earthquakes along the northeast Pacific rim recorded in southern California form the data set for a comparative investigation of the upper mantle beneath the Cascade Ranges-Juan de Fuca region, an ocean-continent transit ion. These data consist of 853 seismograms (6° < Δ < 42°) which produce 1068 travel times and 40 ray parameter estimates. We use the spreading center model initially in synthetic seismogram modeling, and perturb GCA until the Cascade Ranges data are matched. Wave field continuation of both data sets with a common reference model confirms that real differences exist between the two suites of seismograms, implying lateral variation in the upper mantle. The ocean-continent transition model, CJF, features velocities from 200 and 350 km that are intermediate between GCA and T7 (Burdick and Helmberger, 1978), a model for the inland western United States. Models of continental shield regions (e.g., King and Calcagnile, 1976) have higher velocities in this depth range, but all four model types are similar below 400 km. This variation in rate of velocity increase with tectonic regime suggests an inverse relationship between velocity gradient and lithospheric age above 400 km depth.
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The Goggausee, a small, shallow, meromictic lake(700m long, 150m wide, max. depth=12m, mean depth=6m), was the site of a week long study (19-26 May 1974) of the limnology department of the University of Vienna. The study comprised pollen analysis and palaeolimnological studies on the one hand, as well as a stock- taking of physiochemical factors, primary production, bacteria, zooplankton, zoo benthos and fish on the other. This paper studies the zooplankton of the lake. The Goggausee is a meromictic lake, with its anoxic deep water, that restricts the vertical distribution of most zooplankton. The aim of the study was to pursue the vertical distribution of the rotifers and Crustacea. Density of individuals, biomass, percentages of zooplankton together and crustaceans and rotifers as groups. Special consideration is given to the the Dipteran Chaoborus flavicans.
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O uso de técnicas com o funcional de Tikhonov em processamento de imagens tem sido amplamente usado nos últimos anos. A ideia básica nesse processo é modificar uma imagem inicial via equação de convolução e encontrar um parâmetro que minimize esse funcional afim de obter uma aproximação da imagem original. Porém, um problema típico neste método consiste na seleção do parâmetro de regularização adequado para o compromisso entre a acurácia e a estabilidade da solução. Um método desenvolvido por pesquisadores do IPRJ e UFRJ, atuantes na área de problemas inversos, consiste em minimizar um funcional de resíduos através do parâmetro de regularização de Tikhonov. Uma estratégia que emprega a busca iterativa deste parâmetro visando obter um valor mínimo para o funcional na iteração seguinte foi adotada recentemente em um algoritmo serial de restauração. Porém, o custo computacional é um fator problema encontrado ao empregar o método iterativo de busca. Com esta abordagem, neste trabalho é feita uma implementação em linguagem C++ que emprega técnicas de computação paralela usando MPI (Message Passing Interface) para a estratégia de minimização do funcional com o método de busca iterativa, reduzindo assim, o tempo de execução requerido pelo algoritmo. Uma versão modificada do método de Jacobi é considerada em duas versões do algoritmo, uma serial e outra em paralelo. Este algoritmo é adequado para implementação paralela por não possuir dependências de dados como de Gauss-Seidel que também é mostrado a convergir. Como indicador de desempenho para avaliação do algoritmo de restauração, além das medidas tradicionais, uma nova métrica que se baseia em critérios subjetivos denominada IWMSE (Information Weighted Mean Square Error) é empregada. Essas métricas foram introduzidas no programa serial de processamento de imagens e permitem fazer a análise da restauração a cada passo de iteração. Os resultados obtidos através das duas versões possibilitou verificar a aceleração e a eficiência da implementação paralela. A método de paralelismo apresentou resultados satisfatórios em um menor tempo de processamento e com desempenho aceitável.