On testing the Phillips curves, the IS Curves, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies

Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre testes empíricos de curvas de Phillips, curvas IS e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária. O primeiro ensaio ("Curvas de Phillips: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas de Phillips usando uma especificação autoregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ADL) que abrange a curva de Phillips Aceleracionista (APC), a curva de Phillips Novo Keynesiana (NKPC), a curva de Phillips Híbrida (HPC) e a curva de Phillips de Informação Rígida (SIPC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2), usando o hiato do produto e alternativamente o custo marginal real como medida de pressão inflacionária. A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKPC, da HPC e da SIPC, mas não rejeita aquelas da APC. O segundo ensaio ("Curvas IS: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas IS usando uma especificação ADL que abrange a curva IS Keynesiana tradicional (KISC), a curva IS Novo Keynesiana (NKISC) e a curva IS Híbrida (HISC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2). A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKISC e da HISC, mas não rejeita aquelas da KISC. O terceiro ensaio ("Os Efeitos da Política Fiscal e suas Interações com a Política Monetária") analisa os efeitos de choques na política fiscal sobre a dinâmica da economia e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária usando modelos SVARs. Testamos a Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços para o Brasil analisando a resposta do passivo do setor público a choques no superávit primário. Para a identificação híbrida, encontramos que não é possível distinguir empiricamente entre os regimes Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) e não-Ricardiano (Dominância Fiscal). Entretanto, utilizando a identificação de restrições de sinais, existe evidência que o governo seguiu um regime Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) de janeiro de 2000 a junho de 2008.

Optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil

This paper presents optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil derived from a backward looking expectation model consisting of a Keynesian IS function and an Augmented Phillips Curve (ISAS). The IS function displays'a high sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real interest rate and the Phillips Curve is accelerationist. The optimal monetary rules show low interest rate volatility with reaction coefficients lower than the ones suggested by Taylor (1993a,b). Reaction functions estimated through ADL and SUR models suggest that monetary policy has not been optimal and has aimed to product rather than inflation stabilization.

Automatic model selection for forecasting brazilian stock returns

This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We nd that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns

This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We find that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Sintomatologia depressiva e avaliação de níveis de TNFα IL-2 em indivíduos idosos e com doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica

The aim of the present study was to assess the presence of depressive symptomatology among elderly residents in long-stay institutions (LSI) and in the community of Recife, Brazil. In total, 81 long-stay elderly patients (mean age of 75.55 ± 9.18 years) and 132 elderly (mean age of 73.14 ± 8.27 years) individuals from the community were evaluated. Depressive symptomatology was assessed by the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), cognitive status by the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and capacity to perform the activities of daily living (ADL) by the Katz Index. Comorbities and the use of medication were recorded. The LSI elderly exhibited more depressive symptoms (p < 0.001) and more dependency (p< 0.001). We observed no differences in MMSE (p = 0.058). The elderly in the community displayed more comorbidities and the LSI elderly consumed more medication (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). According to multivariate analysis (logistic regression), being male, having no spouse and having a low schooling level are risk factors for depressive symptoms. In conclusion, most elderly with depressive symptoms received no medication fordepression.

Modificações introduzidas pelos treinamentos cardiopulmonar e neuromuscular nos níveis séricos basais de fatores de crescimento insulina símile i (igf-1), cortisol, autonomia funcional e qualidade de vida de mulheres idosas

Changes introduced by cardiopulmonar and neuromuscular training on basal serum insulin-like grow factor-1 (IGF-1) and cortisol levels, functional autonomy and quality of life in elderly women The aim of this study was to compare the effects of strength and aerobic training on basal serum IGF-1 and Cortisol levels, functional autonomy (FA) and quality of life (QoL) in elderly women after 12 weeks of training. The subjects were submitted the strength training (75-85% 1-RM) with weight exercises (SG; n=12; age=66.08 ± 3,37 years; BMI=26,77 ± 3,72 kg/m2), aerobic training with aquatic exercises (AG; n=13; age=68,69 ± 4,70 years; BMI=29,19 ± 2,96 kg/m2) and control group (CG; n=10; age=68,80 ± 5,41 years; BMI=29,70 ± 2,82 kg/m2). Fasting blood was analyzed to measure basal IGF-1 and cortisol levels by chemiluminescence method. The t-Student test showed increased IGF-1 in the SG (p<0.05) for intragroup comparison. The Repeated-measure ANOVA presented increased IGF-1 (p<0.05) in the SG compared to the other two groups. There were no differences in cortisol levels. All the FA tests (GDLAM autonomy protocol) presented decreased significant in the time marked in seconds to the SG. The same results were found in the AG, except in the rise from a sitting position test. The autonomy index presented significant improvements (p<0.05) in the SG related to the AG and CG and in the AG to the CG. The SG showed increased QoL (p<0.05) (by WHOQOL-Old questionnaire) in the facet 1 (sensorial functioning) and facet 5 (death and dying). Thus, the SG obtained positive changes on IGF-1 and FA levels when compared to the AG. This suggests that strength training can indicated to decrease the effects of ageing.

Digestibilidade Aparente da Proteína Bruta e dos Componentes da Parede Celular de uma Ração Completa, com Bovinos de Diferentes Grupos Genéticos

Avaliaram-se os coeficientes de digestibilidade do extrato etéreo (EE), proteína bruta (PB), fibra em detergente neutro (FDN), fibra em detergente ácido (FDA), hemicelulose (HCEL) e celulose (CEL) de uma ração completa, composta por 44,3% de feno de braquiária, 55% de concentrado e 0,7% de mistura mineral, fornecida a bovinos de diferentes grupos genéticos (Gir, Nelore, Guzerá, Santa Gertrudis e Caracu), pelas metodologias de coleta total de fezes e com indicador interno (lignina em detergente ácido - LDA), em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições por grupo genético, com análise de variância individual dentro de cada metodologia e uma análise de correlação entre as metodologias. Não houve diferença entre grupos genéticos para a digestibilidade de EE, PB, FDN, FDA, HCEL e CEL, pelas metodologias de coleta total de fezes e com LDA, com médias de 44,28 e 40,38%; 52,46 e 49,51%; 57,04 e 54,25%; 37,71 e 34,04%; 71,66 e 69,68%; e 48,27 e 45,20%, respectivamente. As digestibilidades da PB, FDA e CEL não mostraram correlação. A LDA foi eficiente na estimativa da digestibilidades e os nutrientes foram utilizados de forma semelhante pelos diferentes grupos genéticos.

Digestibilidade aparente da matéria seca, matéria orgânica e energia bruta e nutrientes digestíveis totais de uma ração completa para bovinos de diferentes grupos genéticos

Avaliou-se a digestibilidade da matéria seca (DMS), matéria orgânica (DMO) e energia bruta (DEB) e os nutrientes digestíveis totais (NDT) de uma ração completa, composta por 44,3% de feno de capim-braquiaria, 55% de concentrado e 0,7% de mistura mineral, fornecida a bovinos de diferentes grupos genéticos (Gir, Nelore, Guzerá, Santa Gertrudis e Caracu), pelas metodologias de coleta total de fezes e com indicador interno (lignina em detergente ácido -- LDA), em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições por grupo genético, com análise de variância individual dentro de cada metodologia e uma análise de correlação entre as metodologias. As correlações foram médias ( 0,47 a 0,51) e significativas (P<0,0602; P<0,0697; P<0,0747; P<0,0522), respectivamente, para DMS, DMO, DEB e para NDT. A recuperação do indicador (95,06%) foi semelhante entre os grupos genéticos. Não houve diferença entre grupos genéticos para DMS, DMO, DEB e nos valores de NDT pelas metodologias de coleita total de fezes e com LDA, com médias de 53,31 e 50,33; 55,16 e 52,25; 52,22 e 49,20; e 53,39 e 50,61%, respectivamente. Assim, a LDA foi eficiente na estimativa da digestibilidade, em função de sua adequada recuperação. Os nutrientes foram utilizados de forma semelhante pelos grupos genéticos.

Energy expenditure during daily activities as measured by two motion sensors in patients with COPD

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Custos e benefícios de um programa de exercício aeróbios na doença pulmonar obstrutica crônica: ensaio cliníco aleatório controlado

Pulmonary Rehabilitation, especially due to aerobic exercise, positive impact in reducing morbidity/mortality of patients with COPD, however the economic impact with costs of implementing simple programs of aerobic exercise are scarce. This is a blind randomized clinical trials, which aimed to evaluate the costs and benefits of a simple program of aerobic exercise in individuals with COPD, considering the financial costs of the Public Health System and its secondary endpoints. We evaluated lung function, the distance walked during six minutes of walking, the respiratory and peripheral muscle strength, quality of life related to health (QLRH), body composition and level of activity of daily living (ADL) before and after eight weeks of an aerobic exercise program consisting of educational guidance for both groups, control and intervention and supervised walks to the intervention group. The health costs generated in both groups were calculated following table Brazilian Public Health System. The sample consisted of forty patients, two being excluded in the initial phase of desaturation during the walk test six minutes. Were randomized into control and intervention group thirty-eight patients, three were excluded from the control group and one was excluded from the intervention group. At the end, thirty-four COPD comprised the sample, 16 in the control group and 18 in the intervention group (FEV1: 50.9 ± 14% pred and FEV1: 56 ± 0.5% pred, respectively). After for intervention, the intervention group showed improvement in meters walked, the sensation of dyspnea and fatigue at work, BODE index (p <0.01) in QLRH, ADL level (p <0.001) as well as increased strength lower limbs (p <0.05). The final cost of the program for the intervention group was R $ 148.75, including: assessments, hiking supervised by a physiotherapist and reassessments. No patient had exacerbation of IG, while 2 patients in the CG exacerbated, generating an average individual cost of R $ 689.15. The aerobic exercises in the form of walking showed significant clinical benefits and economic feasibility of its implementation, due to low cost and easy accessibility for patients, allowing them to add their daily practice of aerobic exercises

Uma estratégia dirigida a modelos e baseada em linguagem de descrição arquitetural para linhas de produtos de software

Model-oriented strategies have been used to facilitate products customization in the software products lines (SPL) context and to generate the source code of these derived products through variability management. Most of these strategies use an UML (Unified Modeling Language)-based model specification. Despite its wide application, the UML-based model specification has some limitations such as the fact that it is essentially graphic, presents deficiencies regarding the precise description of the system architecture semantic representation, and generates a large model, thus hampering the visualization and comprehension of the system elements. In contrast, architecture description languages (ADLs) provide graphic and textual support for the structural representation of architectural elements, their constraints and interactions. This thesis introduces ArchSPL-MDD, a model-driven strategy in which models are specified and configured by using the LightPL-ACME ADL. Such strategy is associated to a generic process with systematic activities that enable to automatically generate customized source code from the product model. ArchSPLMDD strategy integrates aspect-oriented software development (AOSD), modeldriven development (MDD) and SPL, thus enabling the explicit modeling as well as the modularization of variabilities and crosscutting concerns. The process is instantiated by the ArchSPL-MDD tool, which supports the specification of domain models (the focus of the development) in LightPL-ACME. The ArchSPL-MDD uses the Ginga Digital TV middleware as case study. In order to evaluate the efficiency, applicability, expressiveness, and complexity of the ArchSPL-MDD strategy, a controlled experiment was carried out in order to evaluate and compare the ArchSPL-MDD tool with the GingaForAll tool, which instantiates the process that is part of the GingaForAll UML-based strategy. Both tools were used for configuring the products of Ginga SPL and generating the product source code

Um framework baseado em modelos para desenvolvimento de sistemas multimídia distribuídos autoadaptativos

Distributed multimedia systems have highly variable characteristics, resulting in new requirements while new technologies become available or in the need for adequacy in accordance with the amount of available resources. So, these systems should provide support for dynamic adaptations in order to adjust their structures and behaviors at runtime. This paper presents an approach to adaptation model-based and proposes a reflective and component-based framework for construction and support of self-adaptive distributed multimedia systems, providing many facilities for the development and evolution of such systems, such as dynamic adaptation. The propose is to keep one or more models to represent the system at runtime, so some external entity can perform an analysis of these models by identifying problems and trying to solve them. These models integrate the reflective meta-level, acting as a system self-representation. The framework defines a meta-model for description of self-adaptive distributed multimedia applications, which can represent components and their relationships, policies for QoS specification and adaptation actions. Additionally, this paper proposes an ADL and architecture for model-based adaptation. As a case study, this paper presents some scenarios to demonstrate the application of the framework in practice, with and without the use of ADL, as well as check some characteristics related to dynamic adaptation

Depressive symptoms among elderly inpatients of a Brazilian university hospital: prevalence and associated factors

Background: This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of depressive symptoms and associated factors among elderly hospital inpatients.Methods: A cross-sectional study evaluated 189 participants using the Geriatric Depression Scale, the Mini-mental State Examination and the Katz and Lawton Index, to assess dependence regarding activities of daily living (ADL).Results: Most of the participants were women, aged between 60 and 92 years, with low levels of educational attainment and personal income, and non-qualified occupations. The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 56%, but only 3% had a psychiatric diagnosis registered in their medical records. Univariate analysis showed significant associations between depressive symptoms and low educational level and income, marital status, number of hospitalizations in the previous year, cognitive decline, dependence regarding basic and instrumental ADL, and death. After logistic regression, the only variables that remained significantly associated with depression were low educational level, dependence regarding basic ADL, and death.Conclusions: Depressive symptoms were independently associated with low educational level and dependence regarding basic ADL. Hospitalized elderly people with depressive symptoms were more likely to die. It is essential to diagnose and treat depression properly in this population to minimize its negative impacts.

Quality of life (QoL) in relation to disease severity in Brazilian Parkinson's patients as measured using the WHOQOL-BREF

This study aimed at evaluating and describing the QoL and its association with the severity of disease among Brazilian Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. In this cross-sectional study 68 PD patients were interviewed using the World Health Organization Quality of Life instrument Short Form (WHOQOL-BREF) and the Hoehn-Yahr (HY) scale. Analysis of variance, chi(2), Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U-tests, Spearman and Cronbach reliability coefficients were used to analyze the data. The results indicate: (1) physical capacity was the domain that showed the most deterioration; (2) severity of PD is associated with QoL measured by WHOQOL-BREF; (3) overall QoL, working capacity, activities of daily living (ADL) and self-esteem are affected in both transitional periods in the progression of PD (mild to moderate and moderate to advanced). Satisfaction with general health, pain, energy, positive feelings, personal relationship and satisfaction with home are affected in the first period of transition while mobility, body image, sexual activity and access to information are affected in the second. This study mainly shows specific facets that are affected depending on the specific periods of PD progression, which can help to understand the impact of the disease, the effectiveness of care, and the demand for health care resources. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.