Gérer les crises : comment les gouvernements locaux ont-ils réagi à la crise financière de 2008 et comment expliquer les différences ? Le cas des communes suisses

Les communes suisses sont largement souveraines pour financer leurs activités. Leurs ressources proviennent avant tout de l'impôt sur le revenu et de l'impôt foncier prélevés auprès des ménages et des entreprises. Une crise, comme celle de 2008, qui touche la sphère financière et l'économie en général risque d'avoir des répercussions directes sur les budgets locaux. Dans le présent article, nous examinons la manière dont les communes perçoivent ce risque et y réagissent. Dans une enquête menée à l'échelle nationale fin 2009 dans les 2596 communes suisses, nous avons demandé aux secrétaires municipaux quelles mesures avaient été prises face aux pertes fiscales attendues et à la hausse possible des dépenses sociales suite à la crise de 2008. Des mesures keynésiennes ont-elles été prises, en augmentant les dépenses et en acceptant des déficits plus importants, ou y a-t-il eu tentative de limiter les déficits par des mesures d'austérité, notamment en restreignant les investissements prévus ? Nos résultats indiquent que quelques communes seulement (essentiellement les plus grandes) s'attendaient à être durement touchées par la crise. On n'observe cependant pas de tendance systématique et conforme à la théorie. Certes des mesures d'austérité ont été mises en place ou un déficit budgétaire a été provoqué, mais bon nombre de communes ont appliqué simultanément des mesures relevant des deux théories. L'impact perçu de la crise au niveau local et l'appartenance de la commune à la partie francophone du pays sont les principaux facteurs expliquant la réaction des communes et les raisons de cette réaction. La taille de la commune joue aussi un rôle. Mais l'influence du parti social-démocrate est négligeable. Le type de mesures que les communes sont susceptibles de prendre est plus difficile à expliquer. Cependant, plus une commune se sent touchée, plus elle s'orientera vers des mesures d'austérité.

Estado e construção ferroviária: quinze anos decisivos para a economia brasileira, 1852-1867

Esta pesquisa procura ampliar e aprofundar o entendimento sobre a participação do Estado na construção ferroviária no século XIX. Com este objetivo, partimos da análise do processo histórico de formação do Estado brasileiro, de 1822 aos anos 1850, a fim de identificar configurações e traços culturais do sistema político no qual se inserem, como prioridade de governo, as políticas públicas e, em especial, o projeto ferroviário. Consideramos que as linhas básicas da política ferroviária, no Império, foram traçadas no período 1852-1867, durante a construção de seis ferrovias pioneiras. Detectamos, ainda, razoável correlação entre o traçado dos caminhos de ferro e os já conhecidos caminhos das minas, que conduziam a zonas onde se localizavam jazigos de pedras e metais preciosos, ferro, carvão, petróleo e outros recursos minerais. Observamos que a participação do Estado na construção ferroviária, no período, desenvolveu-se em duas frentes: como empresário responsável pela construção e gestão de malhas ferroviárias e como agente de regulação de empresas privadas, nacionais e estrangeiras, privilegiadas com longa lista de subvenções e incentivos, entre os quais se destaca a garantia de juro mínimo para os capitais investidos na construção de estradas de ferro.

A delphy study of the cooperativisation of the social services in the historical territory of Gipuzkoa

This article shows the main results obtained from the Delphi study, which was made of politicians and technicians from the Department of Social Policy in the County Council of Gipuzkoa, concerning the possibility of cooperativizing the provision of social services in this historical territory. With this in mind, the structure of this article is in two different parts. The first part develops the theoretical framework which serves as inspiration for the empirical work, where note is made of the main theoretical proposals that have a bearing on the collective dimension of citizen participation in the management of public services. Among the various models, those which prioritise public participation through social and solidarity economy entities stand out. The second part concerns itself with the presentation of the field research results. To this end, the methodological notes concerning the preparation process for the Delphi analysis are presented first and this is immediately followed by a synthesis of the main results obtained in this study. The article ends with a section of conclusions and future lines of action.

Le rapport au savoir scientifique d'enseignantes et d'enseignants du primaire

Nous avons procédé à l'examen de problèmes relatifs à l'éducation aux sciences via une approche à caractère épistémologique, contrairement à l'approche plus usuelle qui aborde les difficultés des apprenants à composer avec les connaissances dites scientifiques seulement d'un point de vue cognitif. La question de recherche que nous nous sommes posée a été la suivante: Quel est le rapport au savoir scientifique d'enseignantes et d'enseignants du primaire? Pour répondre à cette question sur le plan méthodologique, nous avons envisagé l'étude du rapport au savoir scientifique d'enseignantes et d'enseignants dans un contexte relié à leur savoir et à leur expertise de tous les jours. Nos modalités de cueillette de données ont été le récit écrit et l'entrevue individuelle semi-structurée. Notre recherche a pris la forme d'une étude de cas multiples conduisant à l'étude des rapports épistémique, pratique et identitaire au savoir scientifique de dix enseignantes et enseignants d'écoles populaires de Caracas, au Vénézuéla. Nos analyses nous ont amenés à affirmer que les sujets ont manifesté un rapport au savoir scientifique dominé par la dépendance et la soumission à l'égard des sciences ainsi que d'autres caractéristiques propres à une approche empirico-réaliste. Cependant, dans un contexte relié à leur savoir-faire et à leur expertise, nous avons repéré des traces de l'émergence d'une vision des sciences qui tient compte, entre autres, du caractère social de la production de ces dernières, ce qui pourrait se qualifier comme faisant partie d'une tendance épistémologique du type socioconstructiviste. En plus, nos analyses nous amènent à suggérer que dans ce contexte les sujets auraient également initié une articulation entre leur savoir-faire et le savoir scientifique, ce qui les aurait amenés à véhiculer un rapport plus émancipatoire vis-à-vis les sciences. Cette articulation des savoirs permet également d'envisager des expériences éducatives plus créatives, plus émancipatoires et plus en lien avec les visions contemporaines émergentes de la science, de son enseignement et de son apprentissage. Bien que de nombreuses recherches dans le domaine de l'éducation soulignent l'importance d'articuler les savoirs disciplinaires avec les savoirs d'expérience, peu illustrent de manière approfondie l'exercice de cette articulation. Notre recherche permet de penser à l'idée d'un rapport au savoir qui donne une véritable place à l'expertise publique des individus et non seulement à l'explication scientifique jugée la seule valable. Ainsi, au-delà des hiérarchisations, chaque savoir aurait sa valeur et sa place, l'articulation des savoirs favorisant chez les sujets apprenants un plus grand intérêt pour l'apprentissage des sciences.

Nouvelle jurisprudence concernant le traitement des subventions au regard de la TVA

La Commission fédérale de recours en matière de contributions (ci-après «CRC») vient de rendre deux décisions relatives à la TVA en matière de subventions et leur impact sur la récupération de l'impôt préalable. Ces deux jugements s'inscrivent dans la ligne de la jurisprudence de la CRC en matière de subventions. Ils conduisent à un résultat conforme au principe même de la TVA, en ce sens que, selon le type de subventions, leur traitement TVA et en particulier leur influence sur le droit à la récupération de l’impôt préalable varie. Ces deux jugements ont toutefois une portée plus large que pour les seules subventions. En effet, le projet de loi sur la TVA qui reprend la réglementation prévue dans l’OTVA, applique le même traitement aux dons. Compte tenu de l’importance des concepts relatifs aux subventions développés dans les deux décisions de la CRC, il nous a paru opportun de retranscrire de manière détaillée les considérants des deux décisions, avant d’ajouter quelques remarques et commentaires sur ces deux arrêts et de les mettre en relation avec le projet de loi sur la TVA.

Latent Variable Models for Stochastic Discount Factors.

Latent variable models in finance originate both from asset pricing theory and time series analysis. These two strands of literature appeal to two different concepts of latent structures, which are both useful to reduce the dimension of a statistical model specified for a multivariate time series of asset prices. In the CAPM or APT beta pricing models, the dimension reduction is cross-sectional in nature, while in time-series state-space models, dimension is reduced longitudinally by assuming conditional independence between consecutive returns, given a small number of state variables. In this paper, we use the concept of Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) or pricing kernel as a unifying principle to integrate these two concepts of latent variables. Beta pricing relations amount to characterize the factors as a basis of a vectorial space for the SDF. The coefficients of the SDF with respect to the factors are specified as deterministic functions of some state variables which summarize their dynamics. In beta pricing models, it is often said that only the factorial risk is compensated since the remaining idiosyncratic risk is diversifiable. Implicitly, this argument can be interpreted as a conditional cross-sectional factor structure, that is, a conditional independence between contemporaneous returns of a large number of assets, given a small number of factors, like in standard Factor Analysis. We provide this unifying analysis in the context of conditional equilibrium beta pricing as well as asset pricing with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates and other state variables. We address the general issue of econometric specifications of dynamic asset pricing models, which cover the modern literature on conditionally heteroskedastic factor models as well as equilibrium-based asset pricing models with an intertemporal specification of preferences and market fundamentals. We interpret various instantaneous causality relationships between state variables and market fundamentals as leverage effects and discuss their central role relative to the validity of standard CAPM-like stock pricing and preference-free option pricing.

Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters.

In this paper, we characterize the asymmetries of the smile through multiple leverage effects in a stochastic dynamic asset pricing framework. The dependence between price movements and future volatility is introduced through a set of latent state variables. These latent variables can capture not only the volatility risk and the interest rate risk which potentially affect option prices, but also any kind of correlation risk and jump risk. The standard financial leverage effect is produced by a cross-correlation effect between the state variables which enter into the stochastic volatility process of the stock price and the stock price process itself. However, we provide a more general framework where asymmetric implied volatility curves result from any source of instantaneous correlation between the state variables and either the return on the stock or the stochastic discount factor. In order to draw the shapes of the implied volatility curves generated by a model with latent variables, we specify an equilibrium-based stochastic discount factor with time non-separable preferences. When we calibrate this model to empirically reasonable values of the parameters, we are able to reproduce the various types of implied volatility curves inferred from option market data.

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Trade Liberalization and the Profitability of Domestic Mergers.

It is often thought that a tariff reduction, by opening up the domestic market to foreign firms, should lessen the need for a policy aimed at discouraging domestic mergers. This implicitly assumes that the tariff in question is sufficiently high to prevent foreign firms from selling in the domestic market. However, not all tariffs are prohibitive, so that foreign firms may be present in the domestic market before it is abolished. Furthermore, even if the tariff is prohibitive, a merger of domestic firms may render it nonprohibitive, thus inviting foreign firms to penetrate the domestic market. In this paper, we show, using a simple example, that in the latter two cases, abolishing the tariff may in fact make the domestic merger more profitable. Hence, trade liberalization will not necessarily reduce the profitability of domestic mergers.

The Transformation Problem : an Aleternative Solution with an Identical Aggregate Profit Rate in the Labor value and the Monetary Space.

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, even if Marx's solution to the transformation problem can be modified, his basic conclusions remain valid. the proposed alternative solution which is presented hare is based on the constraint of a common general profit rate in both spaces and a money wage level which will be determined simultaneously with prices.

The Wage Rate and the Profit Rate in the Price of Production Equation: a New Solution to an Old Problem

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, even if Marx's solution to the transformation problem can be modified, his basic concusions remain valid.

Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not preference-free, in other words, when preferences are not hidden in the stock and bond prices as they are in the standard Black and Scholes (BS) or Hull and White (HW) pricing formulas. The dependence of option prices on preference parameters comes from several instantaneous causality effects such as the so-called leverage effect. We also emphasize that the most standard asset pricing models (CAPM for the stock and BS or HW preference-free option pricing) are valid under the same stochastic setting (typically the absence of leverage effect), regardless of preference parameter values. Even though we propose a general non-preference-free option pricing formula, we always keep in mind that the BS formula is dominant both as a theoretical reference model and as a tool for practitioners. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize why the BS formula is such a benchmark. We show that, as soon as we are ready to accept a basic property of option prices, namely their homogeneity of degree one with respect to the pair formed by the underlying stock price and the strike price, the necessary statistical hypotheses for homogeneity provide BS-shaped option prices in equilibrium. This BS-shaped option-pricing formula allows us to derive interesting characterizations of the volatility smile, that is, the pattern of BS implicit volatilities as a function of the option moneyness. First, the asymmetry of the smile is shown to be equivalent to a particular form of asymmetry of the equivalent martingale measure. Second, this asymmetry appears precisely when there is either a premium on an instantaneous interest rate risk or on a generalized leverage effect or both, in other words, whenever the option pricing formula is not preference-free. Therefore, the main conclusion of our analysis for practitioners should be that an asymmetric smile is indicative of the relevance of preference parameters to price options.

Coherent Cost-Sharing Rules

We reconsider the discrete version of the axiomatic cost-sharing model. We propose a condition of (informational) coherence requiring that not all informational refinements of a given problem be solved differently from the original problem. We prove that strictly coherent linear cost-sharing rules must be simple random-order rules.

Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets.

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to higher conditional moments, in particular the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index.