929 resultados para weak informative prior


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In 3 experiments, the authors examined the role of memory for prior instances for making relative judgments in conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of aircraft either repeatedly conflict with each other or pass safely before being tested on new aircraft pairs, which varied in similarity to the training pairs. Performance was influenced by the similarity between aircraft pairs. Detection time was faster when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly conflicted. Detection time was slower, and participants missed conflicts, when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. The findings identify aircraft features that are used as inputs into the memory decision process and provide an indication of the processes involved in the use of memory for prior instances to make relative judgments.

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We experimentally determine weak values for a single photon's polarization, obtained via a weak measurement that employs a two-photon entangling operation, and postselection. The weak values cannot be explained by a semiclassical wave theory, due to the two-photon entanglement. We observe the variation in the size of the weak value with measurement strength, obtaining an average measurement of the S-1 Stokes parameter more than an order of magnitude outside of the operator's spectrum for the smallest measurement strengths.

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The use of a fully parametric Bayesian method for analysing single patient trials based on the notion of treatment 'preference' is described. This Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach allows for full parameter uncertainty, use of prior information and the modelling of individual and patient sub-group structures. It provides updated probabilistic results for individual patients, and groups of patients with the same medical condition, as they are sequentially enrolled into individualized trials using the same medication alternatives. Two clinically interpretable criteria for determining a patient's response are detailed and illustrated using data from a previously published paper under two different prior information scenarios. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Purpose: Although the body-mass management strategies of athletes in high-participation weight-category sports such as wrestling have been thoroughly investigated, little is known about such practices among lightweight rowers. This study examined the body-mass management practices of lightweight rowers before competition and compared these with current guidelines of the International Federation of Rowing Association (FISA). Quantification of nutrient intake in the 1-2 h between weigh-in and racing was also sought. Methods: Lightweight rowers (N = 100) competing in a national regatta completed a questionnaire that assessed body-mass management practices during the 4 wk before and throughout a regatta plus recovery strategies after weigh-in. Biochemical data were collected immediately after weigh-in to validate questionnaire responses. Responses were categorized according to gender and age category (Senior B or younger than 23 yr old, i.e., U23, Senior A or OPEN, i.e., open age limit) for competition. Results: Most athletes (male U23 76.5%, OPEN 92.3%; female U23 84.0%, OPEN 94.1%) decreased their body mass in the weeks before the regatta at rates compliant with FISA guidelines. Gradual dieting, fluid restriction, and increased training load were the most popular methods of body-mass management. Although the importance of recovery after weigh-in was recognized by athletes, nutrient intake and especially sodium (male U23 5.3 ± 4.9, OPEN 7.7 ± 5.9; female U23 5.7 ± 6.8, OPEN 10.2 ± 5.4 mg-kg(-1)) and fluid intake (male U23 12.1 ± 7.1, OPEN 13.5 ± 8.1; female U23 9.4 ± 7.4, OPEN 14.8 ± 6.9 mL.kg(-1)) were below current sports nutrition recommendations. Conclusion: Few rowers were natural lightweights; the majority reduced their body mass in the weeks before a regatta. Nutritional recovery strategies implemented by lightweight rowers after weigh-in were not consistent with current guidelines.

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Defining the pharmacokinetics of drugs in overdose is complicated. Deliberate self-poisoning is generally impulsive and associated with poor accuracy in dose history. In addition, early blood samples are rarely collected to characterize the whole plasma-concentration time profile and the effect of decontamination on the pharmacokinetics is uncertain. The aim of this study was to explore a fully Bayesian methodology for population pharmacokinetic analysis of data that arose from deliberate self-poisoning with citalopram. Prior information on the pharmacokinetic parameters was elicited from 14 published studies on citalopram when taken in therapeutic doses. The data set included concentration-time data from 53 patients studied after 63 citalopram overdose events (dose range: 20-1700 mg). Activated charcoal was administered between 0.5 and 4 h after 17 overdose events. The clinical investigator graded the veracity of the patients' dosing history on a 5-point ordinal scale. Inclusion of informative priors stabilised the pharmacokinetic model and the population mean values could be estimated well. There were no indications of non-linear clearance after excessive doses. The final model included an estimated uncertainty of the dose amount which in a simulation study was shown to not affect the model's ability to characterise the effects of activated charcoal. The effect of activated charcoal on clearance and bioavailability was pronounced and resulted in a 72% increase and 22% decrease, respectively. These findings suggest charcoal administration is potentially beneficial after citalopram overdose. The methodology explored seems promising for exploring the dose-exposure relationship in the toxicological settings.

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Caffeine is known to increase arousal, attention, and information processing-all factors implicated in facilitating persuasion. In a standard attitude-change paradigm, participants consumed an orange-juice drink that either contained caffeine (3.5 mg/kg body weight) or did not (placebo) prior to reading a counterattitudinal communication (anti-voluntary euthanasia). Participants then completed a thought-listing task and a number of attitude scales. The first experiment showed that those who consumed caffeine showed greater agreement with the communication (direct attitude: voluntary euthanasia) and on an issue related to, but not contained in, the communication (indirect attitude: abortion). The order in which direct and indirect attitudes were measured did not affect the results. A second experiment manipulated the quality of the arguments in the message (strong vs. weak) to determine whether systematic processing had occurred. There was evidence that systematic processing occurred in both drink conditions, but was greater for those who had consumed caffeine. In both experiments, the amount of message-congruent thinking mediated persuasion. These results show that caffeine can increase the extent to which people systematically process and are influenced by a persuasive communication.

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Recently, there have been several suggestions that weak Kerr nonlinearity can be used for generation of macroscopic superpositions and entanglement and for linear optics quantum computation. However, it is not immediately clear that this approach can overcome decoherence effects. Our numerical study shows that nonlinearity of weak strength could be useful for macroscopic entanglement generation and quantum gate operations in the presence of decoherence. We suggest specific values for real experiments based on our analysis. Our discussion shows that the generation of macroscopic entanglement using this approach is within the reach of current technology.

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During the analytical method development for BAY 11-7082 ((E)-3-[4-methylphenylsulfonyl]-2-propenenitrile), using HPLC-MS-MS and HPLC-UV, we observed that the protein removal process (both ultrafiltration and precipitation method using organic solvents) prior to HPLC brought about a significant reduction in the concentration of this compound. The use of a structurally similar internal standard, BAY 11-7085 ((E)-3-[4-t-butylphenylsulfonyl]-2-propenenitrile), was not effective in compensating for the loss of analyte as the extent of reduction was different to that of the analyte. We present here a systematic investigation of this problem and a new validated method for the determination of BAY 11-7082. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Recent advances in biomedical science indicate that it may eventually be possible to intervene in the biological process of human ageing. This paper overviews the current state of the science of lifespan extension and promising future directions. It is uncertain whether 'strong' lifespan extension - the extension of human life beyond the maximum 122 years so far observed - will become a reality. It is more likely that cumulative effects of numerous scientific and biomedical advances in the treatment of common disease will produce 'weak' lifespan extension - the extension of average life expectancy. The practical application of molecular, genetic and nanomaterials research may also lead to advances in life expectancy. It is not too early to begin to consider the policy implications of either form of lifespan extension.

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We investigate decoherence effects in the recently suggested quantum-computation scheme using weak nonlinearities, strong probe coherent fields, detection, and feedforward methods. It is shown that in the weak-nonlinearity-based quantum gates, decoherence in nonlinear media can be made arbitrarily small simply by using arbitrarily strong probe fields, if photon-number-resolving detection is used. On the contrary, we find that homodyne detection with feedforward is not appropriate for this scheme because in this case decoherence rapidly increases as the probe field gets larger.

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Objective: It is usual that data collected from routine clinical care is sparse and unable to support the more complex pharmacokinetic (PK) models that may have been reported in previous rich data studies. Informative priors may be a pre-requisite for model development. The aim of this study was to estimate the population PK parameters of sirolimus using a fully Bayesian approach with informative priors. Methods: Informative priors including prior mean and precision of the prior mean were elicited from previous published studies using a meta-analytic technique. Precision of between-subject variability was determined by simulations from a Wishart distribution using MATLAB (version 6.5). Concentration-time data of sirolimus retrospectively collected from kidney transplant patients were analysed using WinBUGS (version 1.3). The candidate models were either one- or two-compartment with first order absorption and first order elimination. Model discrimination was based on computation of the posterior odds supporting the model. Results: A total of 315 concentration-time points were obtained from 25 patients. Most data were clustered at trough concentrations with range of 1.6 to 77 hours post-dose. Using informative priors, either a one- or two-compartment model could be used to describe the data. When a one-compartment model was applied, information was gained from the data for the value of apparent clearance (CL/F = 18.5 L/h), and apparent volume of distribution (V/F = 1406 L) but no information was gained about the absorption rate constant (ka). When a two-compartment model was fitted to the data, the data were informative about CL/F, apparent inter-compartmental clearance, and apparent volume of distribution of the peripheral compartment (13.2 L/h, 20.8 L/h, and 579 L, respectively). The posterior distribution of the volume distribution of central compartment and ka were the same as priors. The posterior odds for the two-compartment model was 8.1, indicating the data supported the two-compartment model. Conclusion: The use of informative priors supported the choice of a more complex and informative model that would otherwise have not been supported by the sparse data.