On Statistical Hypothesis Testing via Simulation Method

A procedure for calculating critical level and power of likelihood ratio test, based on a Monte-Carlo simulation method is proposed. General principles of software building for its realization are given. Some examples of its application are shown.

Transient response in high-resolution Brillouin-based distributed sensing using probe pulses shorter than the acoustic relaxation time

We perform numerical simulations on a model describing a Brillouin-based temperature and strain sensor, testing its response when it is probed with relatively short pulses. Experimental results were recently published [e.g., Opt. Lett. 24, 510 (1999)] that showed a broadening of the Brillouin loss curve when the probe pulse duration is reduced, followed by a sudden and rather surprising reduction of the linewidth when the pulse duration gets shorter than the acoustic relaxation time. Our study reveals the processes responsible for this behavior. We give a clear physical insight into the problem, allowing us to define the best experimental conditions required for one to take the advantage of this effect.

An intervention encouraging planned self-regulation and goal setting in drivers across the lifespan:testing an extended theory of planned behaviour

Previous work has demonstrated that planning behaviours may be more adaptive than avoidance strategies in driving self-regulation, but ways of encouraging planning have not been investigated. The efficacy of an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) plus implementation intention based intervention to promote planning self-regulation in drivers across the lifespan was tested. An age stratified group of participants (N=81, aged 18-83 years) was randomly assigned to an experimental or control condition. The intervention prompted specific goal setting with action planning and barrier identification. Goal setting was carried out using an agreed behavioural contract. Baseline and follow-up measures of TPB variables, self-reported, driving self-regulation behaviours (avoidance and planning) and mobility goal achievements were collected using postal questionnaires. Like many previous efforts to change planned behaviour by changing its predictors using models of planned behaviour such as the TPB, results showed that the intervention did not significantly change any of the model components. However, more than 90% of participants achieved their primary driving goal, and self-regulation planning as measured on a self-regulation inventory was marginally improved. The study demonstrates the role of pre-decisional, or motivational components as contrasted with post-decisional goal enactment, and offers promise for the role of self-regulation planning and implementation intentions in assisting drivers in achieving their mobility goals and promoting safer driving across the lifespan, even in the context of unchanging beliefs such as perceived risk or driver anxiety.

Preparation and property testing of compatibilized poly(l-lactide)/thermoplastic polyurethane blends

Poly(l-lactide) (PLL) has been blended with a polycaprolactone-based thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) elastomer as a toughening agent and a poly(l-lactide-co-caprolactone) (PLLCL) copolymer as a compatibilizer. Both 2-component (PLL/TPU) and 3-component (PLL/TPU/PLLCL) blends were prepared by melt mixing, characterized, hot-pressed into thin sheets and their tensile properties tested. The results showed that, although the TPU could toughen the PLL, the blends were largely immiscible leading to phase separation. However, addition of the PLLCL copolymer improved blend compatibility. The best all-round properties were found for the 3-component blend of composition PLL/TPU/PLLCL = 90/10/10 parts by weight.

Early Detection of Emergent Events Based on an Extremal Process Approach

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G70, 62F03.

Successful development and testing of a Method for Aggregating The Reporting of Interventions in Complex Studies (MATRICS)

Objectives: To develop a tool for the accurate reporting and aggregation of findings from each of the multiple methods used in a complex evaluation in an unbiased way. Study Design and Setting: We developed a Method for Aggregating The Reporting of Interventions in Complex Studies (MATRICS) within a gastroenterology study [Evaluating New Innovations in (the delivery and organisation of) Gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy services by the NHS Modernisation Agency (ENIGMA)]. We subsequently tested it on a different gastroenterology trial [Multi-Institutional Nurse Endoscopy Trial (MINuET)]. We created three layers to define the effects, methods, and findings from ENIGMA. We assigned numbers to each effect in layer 1 and letters to each method in layer 2. We used an alphanumeric code based on layers 1 and 2 to every finding in layer 3 to link the aims, methods, and findings. We illustrated analogous findings by assigning more than one alphanumeric code to a finding. We also showed that more than one effect or method could report the same finding. We presented contradictory findings by listing them in adjacent rows of the MATRICS. Results: MATRICS was useful for the effective synthesis and presentation of findings of the multiple methods from ENIGMA. We subsequently successfully tested it by applying it to the MINuET trial. Conclusion: MATRICS is effective for synthesizing the findings of complex, multiple-method studies.

Cognitive-didactic Model for Making Testing Items in Physics

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2015

Bayesian Prediction of Weibull Distribution Based on Fixed and Random Sample Size

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16, 65C05, 65C20.

Specification and quantitative analysis of probabilistic cloud deployment patterns

Cloud computing is a new technological paradigm offering computing infrastructure, software and platforms as a pay-as-you-go, subscription-based service. Many potential customers of cloud services require essential cost assessments to be undertaken before transitioning to the cloud. Current assessment techniques are imprecise as they rely on simplified specifications of resource requirements that fail to account for probabilistic variations in usage. In this paper, we address these problems and propose a new probabilistic pattern modelling (PPM) approach to cloud costing and resource usage verification. Our approach is based on a concise expression of probabilistic resource usage patterns translated to Markov decision processes (MDPs). Key costing and usage queries are identified and expressed in a probabilistic variant of temporal logic and calculated to a high degree of precision using quantitative verification techniques. The PPM cost assessment approach has been implemented as a Java library and validated with a case study and scalability experiments. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Aviation fuel gauging sensor utilizing multiple diaphragm sensors incorporating polymer optical fiber Bragg gratings

A high-performance fuel gauging sensor is described that uses five diaphragm-based pressure sensors, which are monitored using a linear array of polymer optical fiber Bragg gratings. The sensors were initially characterized using water, revealing a sensitivity of 98 pm/cm for four of the sensors and 86 pm/cm for the fifth. The discrepancy in the sensitivity of the fifth sensor has been explained as being a result of the annealing of the other four sensors. Initial testing in JET A-1 aviation fuel revealed the unsuitability of silicone rubber diaphragms for prolonged usage in fuel. A second set of sensors manufactured with a polyurethane-based diaphragm showed no measurable deterioration over a three month period immersed in fuel. These sensors exhibited a sensitivity of 39 pm/cm, which is less than the silicone rubber devices due to the stiffer nature of the polyurethane material used.

Knowledge representation and evaluation an ontology-based knowledge management approach

Competition between Higher Education Institutions is increasing at an alarming rate, while changes of the surrounding environment and demands of labour market are frequent and substantial. Universities must meet the requirements of both the national and European legislation environment. The Bologna Declaration aims at providing guidelines and solutions for these problems and challenges of European Higher Education. One of its main goals is the introduction of a common framework of transparent and comparable degrees that ensures the recognition of knowledge and qualifications of citizens all across the European Union. This paper will discuss a knowledge management approach that highlights the importance of such knowledge representation tools as ontologies. The discussed ontology-based model supports the creation of transparent curricula content (Educational Ontology) and the promotion of reliable knowledge testing (Adaptive Knowledge Testing System).

Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling

In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature, but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However, because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year, these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios, we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKHI and UKLO, which predict drastic global warming, then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio, where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later), whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535, GFDL 5564 and UKTR, a transition could be noticed.

Magyar egyetemi hallgatók vállalkozási attitűdjei és az attitűdöket befolyásoló tényezők elemzése a GUESSS-felmérés adatai alapján - Kik is akarnak ténylegesen vállalkozni? (Entrepreneurial attitudes of the Hungarian students and the analysis of the factors influencing attitudes based on the datas of GUESSS survey – Who want to undertake really?)

A vállalkozóvá válás meghatározó tényezőinek kutatása szakmai berkekben leginkább a Szent Grál keresésére emlékeztet: már lassan azt sem tudjuk, hogy egyáltalán léteznek-e ilyen tényezők. A kutatást nehezítik a többnyire önbevallásos kérdésekre adott torzított válaszok, a szóba jöhető tényezők számossága és a vállalkozói motivációk heterogenitása a különböző demográfiai karakterisztikákkal rendelkező népesség körében. Az egyetemi hallgatók körében némileg egyszerűbb a vizsgálat, hiszen ez egy relatíve homogén minta. Ugyanakkor itt a leginkább áttételesek a hatások, és ráadásul nem a tényleges vállalkozóvá válás, hanem többnyire csak a szándékok tesztelhetők. A vállalkozóvá válás szándékát Bandura társadalmi megismerés-elmélete, Shapero elmozduláselmélete és az Ajzen-féle tervezett magatartás elmélet alapján felállított koncepcionális modell keretén belül vizsgálják és elemzik a szerzők. Arra keresik a választ, hogy az egyes vállalkozói tulajdonságok, az egyetemi környezeti tényezők és a családi háttér hogyan hatnak a vállalkozóvá válásra. A teszteléshez a 21 országra kiterjedő 2011-es GUESSS-felmérésből a magyar egyetemi/ főiskolai hallgatók 5224-es erősségű mintáját használták fel. A multimoniális regressziós vizsgálat eredményei megerősítik, hogy a vállalkozói tulajdonságok és a családban levő vállalkozó megléte mellett a vállalkozói oktatás is pozitívan befolyásolják a vállalkozásindítási szándékot. A klaszterelemzés rámutatott arra, hogy a vállalkozói szándékok, az erre ható tényezők, továbbá a választott szak és más demográfiai tényezők szempontjából a hallgatók meglehetősen heterogének. _______ The search for the determining factors to become an entrepreneur is something like searching for the Holy Grail: After many decades we do not even know if these factors exist or not. The research is difficult because the questionnaires are self esteem, the potential influential factors are numerous, and the motivations do vary across the different cohorts of population. It is easier to conduct a survey amongst university students since this sample is relatively homogenous. At the same times, the determining factors to become an entrepreneur cannot be really tested; the authors can examine mostly the attitudes and the intentions. The conceptual model of entrepreneurial intentions, developed in the paper, based on Bandura, Shaper and Ajzen. The paper is testing eight hypotheses about the influential factors of entrepreneurial intentions such as entrepreneurial traits, the university environment, and the family background. For testing the hypothesis they use a sample of 5224 Hungarian students from the GUESSS 2011 survey. According to the multinomial regression, entrepreneurial intentions are positively influenced by certain entrepreneurial traits, entrepreneur in the family, and entrepreneurship courses at the higher education institutions. The cluster analysis results underline the heterogeneity of the students in terms of entrepreneurial intentions, gender, and the major field of studies

An assessment of computer usage within the Bahamian public school system and recommended guidelines towards the development of a strategic national computer plan

Computers have dramatically changed the way we live, conduct business, and deliver education. They have infiltrated the Bahamian public school system to the extent that many educators now feel the need for a national plan. The development of such a plan is a challenging undertaking, especially in developing countries where physical, financial, and human resources are scarce. This study assessed the situation with regard to computers within the Bahamian public school system, and provided recommended guidelines to the Bahamian government based on the results of a survey, the body of knowledge about trends in computer usage in schools, and the country's needs. ^ This was a descriptive study for which an extensive review of literature in areas of computer hardware, software, teacher training, research, curriculum, support services and local context variables was undertaken. One objective of the study was to establish what should or could be relative to the state-of-the-art in educational computing. A survey was conducted involving 201 teachers and 51 school administrators from 60 randomly selected Bahamian public schools. A random stratified cluster sampling technique was used. ^ This study used both quantitative and qualitative research methodologies. Quantitative methods were used to summarize the data about numbers and types of computers, categories of software available, peripheral equipment, and related topics through the use of forced-choice questions in a survey instrument. Results of these were displayed in tables and charts. Qualitative methods, data synthesis and content analysis, were used to analyze the non-numeric data obtained from open-ended questions on teachers' and school administrators' questionnaires, such as those regarding teachers' perceptions and attitudes about computers and their use in classrooms. Also, interpretative methodologies were used to analyze the qualitative results of several interviews conducted with senior public school system's officials. Content analysis was used to gather data from the literature on topics pertaining to the study. ^ Based on the literature review and the data gathered for this study a number of recommendations are presented. These recommendations may be used by the government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas to establish policies with regard to the use of computers within the public school system. ^

English language learners and standardized testing in an urban senior high school

The primary purpose of this study was to examine the influences of literacy variables on high-stakes test performance including: (a) student achievement on the Metropolitan Achievement Test, Seventh Edition (MAT-7) as correlated to the high-stakes test such as the FCAT examination and (b) the English language proficiency attained by English Language Learners (ELL) students when participating in, or exiting from English Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) program as determined by the Limited English Proficient (LEP) committee. ^ Two one-sample Chi-square tests were conducted to investigate the relationship between passing the MAT-7 Reading and Language examinations and the FCAT-SSS Reading Comprehension and FCAT-NRT examinations. In addition, 2x2 Analyses of Variance (ANOVAs) were conducted to address the relationship between the time ELL students spent in the ESOL program and the level of achievement on MAT-7 Reading and Language examinations and the FCAT-SSS Reading Comprehension and FCAT-NRT. ^ Findings of this study indicated that more ELL students exit the program based on the LEP committee decisions than by passing the MAT-7. The majority of ELL students failed the 10th grade FCAT, the passing of which is needed for graduation. A significant number of ELL students failed, even when passing the MAT-7 or being duly exited through the decision of the LEP committee. The data also indicated that ELL students who exited the ESOL program in six semesters or fewer had higher FCAT scores than those who exited the program in seven semesters or more. The MAT-7 and the decision of the LEP committee were shown to be ineffective as predictors of success on the FCAT. ^ Further research to determine the length of time a student in the ESOL program uses English to read, write, and speak should be conducted. Additionally, the development of a new assessment instrument to better predict student success should be considered. However, it should be noted that the results of this study are limited to the context in which it was conducted and does not warrant generalizations beyond that context. ^