The Fate of Greece in a ‘Genuine Economic and Monetary Union’: Lessons from a small island state. CEPS Hi-Level Brief, 19 June 2015 Friday, 19 June 2015

As the Greek debt drama reaches another supposedly decision point, Daniel Gros urges creditors (and indeed all policy-makers) to think about the long term and poses one key question in this CEPS High-Level Brief: What can be gained by keeping Greece inside the euro area at “whatever it takes”? As he points out, the US, with its unified politics and its federal fiscal transfer system, is often taken as a model for the Eurozone, and it is thus instructive to consider the longer-term performance of an area of the US which has for years been kept afloat by massive transfers, and which is now experiencing a public debt crisis. The entity in question is Puerto Rico, which is an integral part of the US in all relevant economic dimensions (currency, economic policy, etc.). The dismal fiscal and economic performance of Puerto Rico carries two lessons: 1) Keeping Greece in the eurozone by increasing implicit subsidies in the form of debt forgiveness might create a low-growth equilibrium with increasing aid dependency. 2) It is wrong to assume that, further integration, including a fiscal and political union, would be sufficient to foster convergence, and prevent further problems of the type the EU is experiencing with Greece.

Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts. CEPS Working Document No. 420/April 2016

It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Future older generations will have increasingly better health and are likely to work longer. By combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data for seven European countries, we project the quantitative impact of ageing on public finances until 2040 and compare it to projected DDRs. We then simulate the public finance impact of changes in three key indicators related to the policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing and longer working lives. We do this by linking age-specific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge: first, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied – significantly so for some countries, e.g. Austria, Finland and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing has a modest effect (on public finances) except in the case of Sweden, where it is substantial. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is well captured by the simple DDR measure if immigrants are similar to the native population. Finally, increasing the length of working lives is central to addressing the public finance challenge of ageing. Extending the length of working lives by three to four years over the next 25 years – equivalent to the increase in life expectancy – severely limits the impact of ageing on public transfers.

Die deutsche Verwaltungswissenschaft und der Ideenimport aus den USA. Über den Einfluss der USA auf die Entwicklung der deutschen Verwaltungswissenschaftstradition während des Deutschen Reichs, der Weimarer Republik, der Zeit des Nationalsozialismus und der Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1870-1970

Die negativen Vorurteile betreffend Ineffizienz der Verwaltung und Behördenfaulheit stehen in krassem Gegensatz zum Einfluss, den die Verwaltung in der Regelung des alltäglichen Lebens einnimmt. Die Rolle der Verwaltung nahm parallel zur Entwicklung des modernen Staats laufend an Bedeutung zu. Dabei verschob sich zunehmend der Gestaltungsraum von den politischen zu den administrativen Institutionen. Die Verwaltungswissenschaft setzt sich mit diesem Wandel auseinander. Daraus folgen verschiedene Fragestellungen: Gibt es ein genug, ein zu viel oder zu wenig an Staat? An wessen Interessen sollte sich die Verwaltung orientieren, wenn sie ihre Aufgaben gut erfüllen wollte: Dem Souverän oder der Exekutive? Dem Monarchen, dem Volk oder der stärksten Partei? Oder soll sie sich auf das Gemeinwohl ausrichten – so undefiniert dieser traditionsreiche Begriff ist und auch ausschliessende, z.B. völkische, Prinzipien zu umfassen vermag? Oder gelten für die Verwaltung eher abstrakte Maximen wie Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Effektivität oder Effizienz? Die bekanntesten Schlagworte der Verwaltungswissenschaft dürften „Bürokratie“ und „New Public Management“ sein. Beide Begriffe sind stark politisiert und auch in ihrer Bedeutung umstritten, wobei letztere auch nicht der Verwendung im wissenschaftlichen Diskurs entspricht. Dies ist aus bedauerlich, weil es die gesellschaftliche Auseinandersetzung betreffend dieses wichtigen Faktors staatlicher Organisation verhindert. Für die verwaltungswissenschaftliche Auseinandersetzung bedeutet dies vor allem eines: Sich der divergierenden Bedeutungen von Begrifflichkeiten bewusst zu sein. Hier stösst man allerdings auf ein wesentliches Problem: Während die Bedeutung in der öffentlichen Diskussion notorisch unscharf ist, kennt auch der wissenschaftliche Diskurs keine klare Definition der Verwaltung, der Verwaltungswissenschaft oder verschiedener verwaltungswissenschaftlicher Konzepte. Die Schwierigkeit, die Verwaltung und ihre Bereiche zu definieren, kann als Versagen der Wissenschaft verstanden werden (Ellwein, 1966: 15; von Stein, 1965: 2384) oder auch daran liegen, dass das Unterfangen prinzipiell unmöglich ist (Forsthoff, 1973: 1). Auf jeden Fall zeigt die komparative Verwaltungswissenschaft, dass Begriffe und Konzepte aus fremdsprachigen Publikationen und deren Kontext übernommen wurden. Besonders deutlich wird dies darin, dass in der Management-Literatur oder der Policy-Forschung die ursprünglich englischen Begriffe im deutschen Sprachgebrauch ebenfalls verwendet werden. Aber die Bedeutungen der ursprünglichen Ideen haben sich während des Transfers in den neuen wissenschaftlichen und politischen Zusammenhang geändert. Daraus folgt eine zweite Problemdimension, die bereits von Woodrow Wilson (1941 [1887]) im Gründungsdokument der US-Verwaltungswissenschaft aufgeworfen wurde: Für welchen Bereich kann die Verwaltungswissenschaft eine Gültigkeit beanspruchen? Wilson argumentiert, dass die Verwaltung als eine Technik zu betrachten sei. Als solche sei sie unabhängig vom politischen Kontext gültig, weswegen er vorschlug, die USA sollten sich in der Suche nach der besten Staatsverwaltung am preussisch-deutschen Modell zu orientieren. Analoge Gedankengänge können auch in der deutschen Verwaltungswissenschaft festgestellt werden, wenn sich die Forschenden auf ausländische Inspirationen beziehen. Die Forschenden suchen dabei Antworten, die unabhängig von ihrer Herkunft auf die eigenen politischen, ökonomischen oder sozialen Problemstellungen gemünzt sind. Diese Probleme – genauso wie die Lösungsansätze – können globale sein, orientieren sich in der Regel jedoch an den eigenen nationalen Institutionen. Denn nur von diesen können sich die Forschenden erhoffen, dass ihre Lösungsvorschläge in die Praxis umgesetzt werden. Basierend auf dieser Argumentation schliesst die aktuelle komparative Verwaltungswissenschaft auf nationale Traditionen der Verwaltungswissenschaften, die den spezifischen Staatsverständnissen entsprechen (Raadschelders und Rutgers, 1996; Rutgers, 2001b; Stillman, 2001). Dabei werden zwei wesentliche Faktoren ausgeblendet: Erstens wandelte sich das Staatsverständnis im Verlauf der Zeit. Zweitens sind und waren die Verwaltungsforschenden trotz ihrer Ausrichtung an einer nationalen Institution nicht in einem nationalen Diskurs isoliert. In den modernen und zeitgenössischen verwaltungswissenschaftlichen Publikationen wird die internationale Einbettung sowohl in den referierten Werken als auch in den Moden der behandelten Themen und angewandten Methoden evident. Diese Einsicht gilt aber nicht erst ab der Globalisierung in den 1990er Jahren, sondern lässt sich bereits in der Zeit vor der deutschen Staatenbildung aufzeigen. Gerade die Kameralisten reisten häufig zwischen den europäischen Fürstenhäusern umher und sorgten dadurch nicht nur für eine weite Verbreitung ihrer Ansätze, sondern kamen selbstverständlich auch mit fremden Ideen in Kontakt (Wakefield, 2009). Und die Entwicklung in der deutschen Verwaltungswissenschaft nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg kann ohne eine tiefere Betrachtung der Entwicklungen in den USA nicht verstanden werden. Aus diesem Grund wird hier ein Versuch unternommen, die Entwicklung der deutschen Verwaltungswissenschaft von der Gründung Deutschlands 1871 bis in die 1970er Jahre auf den Einfluss US-amerikanischer Ideen hin zu untersuchen. Dazu werden zuerst in der Sektion I der Untersuchungsgegenstand und die theoretischen Grundlagen eingeführt, anhand derer der Import von Ideen aus den USA durch die deutsche Verwaltungswissenschaft untersucht wird. Sektion II zeigt anhand von Primärquellen die Entwicklung der deutschen Verwaltungswissenschaft. Die Struktur folgt dabei den Phasen sozialer und politischer Umbrüche: Gründung des deutschen Reiches (Kapitel II.1), Zwischenkriegsperiode (Kapitel II.2), Nachkriegszeit (Kapitel II.3) sowie die 1960er und 1970er Jahre (II.4). In Sektion III wird der Ideentransfer analysiert und danach in IV die Konklusionen betreffend die deutsche Tradition der Verwaltungswissenschaft präsentiert.

Les transferts de fonds virtuels – une technologie innovatrice et un moyen potentiel de blanchiment d’argent

Travail dirigé présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maître ès sciences (M.Sc) en Criminologie – Option sécurité intérieure

Stable oxygen and carbon isotope of foraminifera from DSDP Leg 90 sites

High-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope stratigraphy is presented for Miocene to early Pliocene sequences at three DSDP sites from the Lord Howe Rise, southwest Pacific, at water depths ranging from 1,300 to 2,000 m. Site 588 is located in the warm subtropics (~26°S), whereas Sites 590 and 591 are positioned in transitional (northern temperate) water masses (~31°S). Benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope analyses were conducted on all sites; planktonic foraminiferal isotope data were generated for Site 590 only. Sample resolution in these sequences is on the order of 50,000 yr. or better. The chronological framework employed in this study is based largely upon ages assigned to Neogene calcareous nannoplankton boundaries. The benthic oxygen isotope record exhibits several major features during the Neogene. During most of the early Miocene, delta18O values were relatively low, reaching minimum values in the late early Miocene (19.5 to 16.5 Ma), and recording the climax of Neogene warmth. This was followed by a major increase in benthic delta18O values between ~16.5 and 13.5 Ma, which is interpreted as representing major, permanent accumulation of the East Antarctic ice sheet and cooling of bottom waters. During the 3 m.y. 18O enrichment, surface waters at these middle latitudes warmed between 16 and 14.5 Ma. During the remainder of the middle and late Miocene, benthic delta18O values exhibit distinct fluctuations, but the average value remained unchanged. The isotopic data show two distinct episodes of climatic cooling close to the middle/late Miocene boundary. The earliest of these events occurred between 12.5 and 11.5 Ma in the latest middle Miocene. The second cooling event occurred from 11 to 9 Ma, and is marked by some of the highest delta18O values of the entire Miocene. This was followed by relative warmth during the middle part of the late Miocene. The latest Miocene and earliest Pliocene (6.2 to 4.5 Ma) were marked by relatively high delta18O values, indicating increased cooling and glaciation. During the middle Pliocene, at about 3.4 Ma, a 0.4 per mil increase in benthic delta18O documents a net increase in average global ice volume and cooling of bottom waters. During this interval of increased glaciation, surface waters warmed by 2-3°C in southern middle-latitude regions. During the late Pliocene, between 2.6 and 2.4 Ma, a further increase in delta18O occurred; this has been interpreted by previous workers as heralding the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Surface-water warming in the middle latitudes occurred in association with major high-latitude glacial increases in the early middle Miocene (16-14 Ma), middle Pliocene (-3.5 Ma), and late Pliocene (~2.4 Ma). These intervals were also marked by increases in the vertical temperature gradient in the open ocean. Intersite correlation is enhanced by using carbon isotope stratigraphy. The great similarity of the delta13C time-series records within and between ocean basins and with water depth clearly indicates that changes in oceanwide average delta13C of [HCO3]- in seawater dominated the records, rather than local effects. Broad changes in the Neogene delta13C record were caused largely by transfer of organic carbon between continental and oceanic reservoirs. These transfers were caused by marine transgressions and regressions on the continental margins. The dominant feature of Neogene delta13C stratigraphy is a broad late early to early middle Miocene increase of about lâ between ~19 and 14.5 Ma. This trend occurred contemporaneously with a period of maximum coastal onlap (transgression) and maximum Neogene climatic warmth. The delta13C trend terminated during the expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet and associated marine regression. The latest Miocene carbon isotope shift (of up to - 0.75 per mil) at 6.2 Ma is clearly recorded in all sites examined and was followed by relatively low values during the remainder of the Neogene. This shift was caused by a glacioeustatic sealevel lowering that exposed continental margins via regression and ultimately increased the flux of organic carbon to the deep sea. An increase in delta13C values during the early Pliocene (~5 to 4 Ma) resulted from marine transgression during a time of global warmth.

Nitrogen isotopic composition and chemical composition of altered oceanic crust from ODP Legs 129 and 185

Knowledge of the subduction input flux of nitrogen (N) in altered oceanic crust (AOC) is critical in any attempt to mass-balance N across arc-trench systems on a global or individual-margin basis. We have employed sealed-tube, carrier-gas-based methods to examine the N concentrations and isotopic compositions of AOC. Analyses of 53 AOC samples recovered on DSDP/ODP legs from the North and South Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Antarctic oceans (with larger numbers of samples from Site 801 outboard of the Mariana trench and Site 1149 outboard of the Izu trench), and 14 composites for the AOC sections at Site 801, give N concentrations of 1.3 to 18.2 ppm and d15N_air of -11.6? to +8.3?, indicating significant N enrichment probably during the early stages of hydrothermal alteration of the oceanic basalts. The N-d15N modeling for samples from Sites 801 and 1149 (n=39) shows that the secondary N may come from (1) the sedimentary N in the intercalated sediments and possibly overlying sediments via fluid-sediment/rock interaction, and (2) degassed mantle N2 in seawater via alteration-related abiotic reduction processes. For all Site 801 samples, weak correlation of N and K2O contents indicates that the siting of N in potassic alteration phases strongly depends on N availability and is possibly influenced by highly heterogeneous temperature and redox conditions during hydrothermal alteration. The upper 470-m AOC recovered by ODP Legs 129 and 185 delivers approximately 800 kg/km N annually into the Mariana margin. If the remaining less-altered oceanic crust (assuming 6.5 km, mostly dikes and gabbros) has MORB-like N of 1.5 ppm, the entire oceanic crust transfers 5100 kg/km N annually into that trench. This N input flux is twice as large as the annual N input of 2500 kg/km in seafloor sediments subducting into the same margin, demonstrating that the N input in oceanic crust, and its isotopic consequences, must be considered in any assessment of convergent margin N flux.

Water chemistry and fluffy layer geochemistry and mineral content at four sites in the western Baltic Sea

The fluffy layer was sampled repeatedly during nine expeditions between October 1996 and December 1998 at four stations situated along a S-N-transect from the Oder Estuary to the Arkona Basin. Geochemical and mineralogical analyses of the fluff show regional differences (trends) in composition, attributed to provenance and to hydrographical conditions along their transport pathways. Temporal variability is very high at the shallow water station of the estuary, and decreases towards the deeper stations in the north. In the shallow water area, intensive resuspension of the fluff due to wind-driven waves and currents leads to an average residence time of only one to two days. Near-bottom lateral transport of the fluff is the main process that transfers the fine grained material, containing both nutrients and contaminants, from the coastal zone into the deeper basins of the Baltic Sea. Seasonal effects (e.g. biogenic production in relation to trace metal variation) are observed at the Tromper Wiek station, where the residence time of the fluffy material is in the scale of seasons. Thus, the fluffy layer offers suitable material for environmental monitoring programs.

(Table 1) Organic carbon and radiogenic isotopes analysis of DSDP Hole 22-218 sediments

Modern erosion of the Himalaya, the world's largest mountain range, transfers huge dissolved and particulate loads to the ocean. It plays an important role in the long-term global carbon cycle, mostly through enhanced organic carbon burial in the Bengal Fan. To understand the role of past Himalayan erosion, the influence of changing climate and tectonic on erosion must be determined. Here we use a 12 Myr sedimentary record from the distal Bengal Fan (Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 218) to reconstruct the Mio-Pliocene history of Himalayan erosion. We use carbon stable isotopes (d13C) of bulk organic matter as paleo-environmental proxy and stratigraphic tool. Multi-isotopic - Sr, Nd and Os - data are used as proxies for the source of the sediments deposited in the Bengal Fan over time. d13C values of bulk organic matter shift dramatically towards less depleted values, revealing the widespread Late Miocene (ca. 7.4 Ma) expansion of C4 plants in the basin. Sr, Nd and Os isotopic compositions indicate a rather stable erosion pattern in the Himalaya range during the past 12 Myr. This supports the existence of a strong connection between the southern Tibetan plateau and the Bengal Fan. The tectonic evolution of the Himalaya range and Southern Tibet seems to have been unable to produce large re-organisation of the drainage system. Moreover, our data do not suggest a rapid change of the altitude of the southern Tibetan plateau during the past 12 Myr. Variations in Sr and Nd isotopic compositions around the late Miocene expansion of C4 plants are suggestive of a relative increase in the erosion of High Himalaya Crystalline rock (i.e. a simultaneous reduction of both Transhimalayan batholiths and Lesser Himalaya relative contributions). This could be related to an increase in aridity as suggested by the ecological and sedimentological changes at that time. A reversed trend in Sr and Nd isotopic compositions is observed at the Plio-Pleistocene transition that is likely related to higher precipitation and the development of glaciers in the Himalaya. These almost synchronous moderate changes in erosion pattern and climate changes during the late Miocene and at the Plio-Pleistocene transition support the notion of a dominant control of climate on Himalayan erosion during this time period. However, stable erosion regime during the Pleistocene is suggestive of a limited influence of the glacier development on Himalayan erosion.

To amend the Electronic Fund Transfer Act : hearing before the Subcommittee on Consumer Affairs of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, first session, on H.R. 3552 ... May 1, 1979.

"Serial 96-15."

Amending the Financial institutions regulatory and interest rate control act : hearing before the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions Supervision, Regulation and Insurance of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, first session, on H.R. 1903 ... February 21, 1979.

"Serial 96-27."

1992 census of manufactures.

Mode of access: Internet.

The Wassenaar arrangement and the future of multilateral export controls : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Sixth Congress, second session, April 12, 2000.

Shipping list no.: 2001-0016-P.

1987 census of manufactures.

Mode of access: Internet.

Opportunities to improve decisionmaking and oversight of arms sales : report /

"B-165731."

The export of munitions of war : speech ... in the House of Representatives, January 7, 1916.

Mode of access: Internet.