A reincidência da gravidez na adolescência e a evasão escolar

Pós-graduação em Educação Escolar - FCLAR

Therapist’s directive and nondirective behavior: analysis of their effects in a parent training group

The study described the interaction between therapist and clients in a group intervention with two mothers and a grandmother. Five out of thirteen taped sessions were designated for analysis. Main results: a) therapist’s categories that stood out: approval, recommendation, interpretation, information and information request; b) clients’ categories that stood out: report, agreement, relation, and opposition, c) the probability for recommendation coupled with use of approval exceeded the probability of occurrence of other combinations. Possible explanations for the results were offered and new research questions were raised.

Risk Factors Associated With the Prevalence of Tuberculosis-Like Lesions in Fenced Wild Boar and Red Deer in South Central Spain

In recent decades the management of large game mammals has become increasingly intensive in south central Spain (SCS), resulting in complex epidemiological scenarios for disease maintenance, and has probably impeded schemes to eradicate tuberculosis (TB) in domestic livestock. We conducted an analysis of risk factors which investigated associations between the pattern of tuberculosis-like lesions (TBL) in wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) across 19 hunting estates from SCS and an extensive set of variables related to game management, land use and habitat structure. The aggregation of wild boar at artificial watering sites was significantly associated with an increasing risk of detecting TBL in both species, which probably relates to enhanced opportunities for transmission. Aggregation of wild boar at feeding sites was also associated with increased risks of TBL in red deer. Hardwood Quercus spp. forest availability was marginally associated with an increased risk of TB in both species, whereas scrubland cover was associated with a reduced individual risk of TBL in the wild boar. It is concluded that management practices that encourage the aggregation of hosts, and some characteristics of Mediterranean habitats could increase the frequency and probability of both direct and indirect transmission of TB. These findings are of concern for both veterinary and public health authorities, and reveal tuberculosis itself as a potential limiting factor for the development and sustainability of such intensive game management systems in Spanish Mediterranean habitats.

Taking account of dependent species in management of the Southern Ocean krill fishery: estimating crabeater seal abundance off east Antarctica

1. The crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga is considered to be a key species in the krill-based food web of the Southern Ocean. Reliable estimates of the abundance of this species are necessary to allow the development of multispecies, predator–prey models as a basis for management of the krill fishery in the Southern Ocean. 2. A survey of crabeater seal abundance was undertaken in 1500 000 km2 of pack-ice off east Antarctica between longitudes 64–150° E during the austral summer of 1999/2000. Sighting surveys, using double observer line transect methods, were conducted from an icebreaker and two helicopters to estimate the density of seals hauled out on the ice in survey strips. Satellite-linked dive recorders were deployed on a sample of seals to estimate the probability of seals being hauled out on the ice at the times of day when sighting surveys were conducted. Model-based inference, involving fitting a density surface, was used to infer densities in the entire survey region from estimates in the surveyed areas. 3. Crabeater seal abundance was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.4 million animals (with 95% confidence), with the most likely estimate slightly less than 1 million. 4. Synthesis and applications. The estimation of crabeater seal abundance in Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) management areas off east Antarctic where krill biomass has also been estimated recently provides the data necessary to begin extending from single-species to multispecies management of the krill fishery. Incorporation of all major sources of uncertainty allows a precautionary interpretation of crabeater abundance and demand for krill in keeping with CCAMLR’s precautionary approach to management. While this study focuses on the crabeater seal and management of living resources in the Southern Ocean, it has also led to technical and theoretical developments in survey methodology that have widespread potential application in ecological and resource management studies, and will contribute to a more fundamental understanding of the structure and function of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Studies on the Helminth Fauna of Alaska. XLI. Observations on Cestodes of the Genus Diplogonoporus Lönnberg, 1892 (Diphyllobothriidae)

The study of a collection of cestodes assigned to the genus Diplogonoporus Lönnberg, 1892 disclosed but two species, D. balaenopterae Lönnberg, 1892, and D. tetrapterus (von Siebold, 1848) (provis.). These cestodes occur characteristically in marine mammals but occasionally are found in terrestrial hosts; D. balaenopterae is recorded for the first time from the domestic dog, and it is concluded that D. grandis (Blanchard, 1894), from man, is conspecific with D. balaenopterae. The latter species is recorded for the first time from the humpback whale, Megaptera novaeangliae (Borowski). The relatively small D. tetrapterus, a common parasite of the Steller sea lion, Eumetopias jubata (Schreber), is reported for the first time from the sea otter, Enhydra lutris Linnaeus, and from the domestic mink, Mustela vison Schreber. Descriptions of representative specimens are presented, and the taxonomic status of other species assigned to Diplogonoporus is discussed. Although the diplogonadic organization of these cestodes is somewhat variable, it is nevertheless constant and serves to characterize the genus Diplogonoporus. The process of asexual reproduction by means of transverse subdivision of primary segments is described. This ability and the diplogonadic structure of these cestodes are considered to be adaptations that increase the production of eggs and thereby the probability of reproductive success in the marine habitat.

Applications of Linear Programming to Coding Theory

Maximum-likelihood decoding is often the optimal decoding rule one can use, but it is very costly to implement in a general setting. Much effort has therefore been dedicated to find efficient decoding algorithms that either achieve or approximate the error-correcting performance of the maximum-likelihood decoder. This dissertation examines two approaches to this problem. In 2003 Feldman and his collaborators defined the linear programming decoder, which operates by solving a linear programming relaxation of the maximum-likelihood decoding problem. As with many modern decoding algorithms, is possible for the linear programming decoder to output vectors that do not correspond to codewords; such vectors are known as pseudocodewords. In this work, we completely classify the set of linear programming pseudocodewords for the family of cycle codes. For the case of the binary symmetric channel, another approximation of maximum-likelihood decoding was introduced by Omura in 1972. This decoder employs an iterative algorithm whose behavior closely mimics that of the simplex algorithm. We generalize Omura's decoder to operate on any binary-input memoryless channel, thus obtaining a soft-decision decoding algorithm. Further, we prove that the probability of the generalized algorithm returning the maximum-likelihood codeword approaches 1 as the number of iterations goes to infinity.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Replacement of fentanyl infusion by enteral methadone decreases the weaning time from mechanical ventilation: a randomized controlled trial

Introduction: Patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) are frequently administered prolonged and/or high doses of opioids which when removed can cause a withdrawal syndrome and difficulty in weaning from MV. We tested the hypothesis that the introduction of enteral methadone during weaning from sedation and analgesia in critically ill adult patients on MV would decrease the weaning time from MV. Methods: A double-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted in the adult intensive care units (ICUs) of four general hospitals in Brazil. The 75 patients, who met the criteria for weaning from MV and had been using fentanyl for more than five consecutive days, were randomized to the methadone (MG) or control group (CG). Within the first 24 hours after study enrollment, both groups received 80% of the original dose of fentanyl, the MG received enteral methadone and the CG received an enteral placebo. After the first 24 hours, the MG received an intravenous (IV) saline solution (placebo), while the CG received IV fentanyl. For both groups, the IV solution was reduced by 20% every 24 hours. The groups were compared by evaluating the MV weaning time and the duration of MV, as well as the ICU stay and the hospital stay. Results: Of the 75 patients randomized, seven were excluded and 68 were analyzed: 37 from the MG and 31 from the CG. There was a higher probability of early extubation in the MG, but the difference was not significant (hazard ratio: 1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 2.64; P = 0.11). The probability of successful weaning by the fifth day was significantly higher in the MG (hazard ratio: 2.64 (95% CI: 1.22 to 5.69; P < 0.02). Among the 54 patients who were successfully weaned (29 from the MG and 25 from the CG), the MV weaning time was significantly lower in the MG (hazard ratio: 2.06; 95% CI 1.17 to 3.63; P < 0.004). Conclusions: The introduction of enteral methadone during weaning from sedation and analgesia in mechanically ventilated patients resulted in a decrease in the weaning time from MV.

Evaluating the legacy of landscape history: extinction debt and species credit in bird and small mammal assemblages in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.

ABCB1 haplotype is associated with major molecular response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients treated with standard-dose of imatinib

Background: Imatinib mesylate (IM) is a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor used for treating chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). IM has high efficacy, however some individuals develop a resistance due to impaired bio-availability. Polymorphisms in genes encoding membrane transporters such as ABCB1 have been associated with differences in protein expression and function that influence the response to several drugs. Aim: To investigate the relationship of ABCB1 polymorphisms with markers of response to IM in patients with CML Methods: One hundred eighteen CML patients initially treated with a standard dose of IM (400 mg/day) for 18 months were selected at two health centers in Sao Paulo City, Brazil. The response criteria were based on the European LeukemiaNet recommendations. ABCB1 polymorphisms c.1236C>T (rs1128503), c.3435C>T (rs1045642) and c.2677G>T/A (rs2032582) were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: ABCB1 polymorphisms were not related with a risk for CML in this sample population (p<0.05). In the CML group, frequencies of ABCB1 SNPs were similar between responder and non-responder patients (p>0.05). In the responder group, the frequency of ABCB11236CT/2677GT/3435CT haplotype was higher in patients with major molecular response (MMR) (51.7%) than in patients without MMR (8.3%, p = 0.010). Furthermore, carriers of this haplotype had increased the probability of reaching the MMR compared with the non-carriers (OR: 11.8; 95% CI: 1.43-97.3, p = 0.022). Conclusions: The ABCB1 1236CT/2677GT/3435CT haplotype is positively associated with the major molecular response to IM in CML patients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

The impact of late diagnosis on the survival of patients following their first AIDS-related hospitalization in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm(3) and >= 1000 mm(3)), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity off acilitating HIV diagnosis.

Inactivation of Neosartorya fischeri and Paecilomyces variotii on paperboard packaging material by hydrogen peroxide and heat

This study reports on the influence of heat and hydrogen peroxide combination on the inactivation kinetics of two heat resistant molds: Neosartorya fischeri and Paecilomyces variotii. Spores of different ages (1 and 4 months) of these molds were prepared and D-values (the time required at certain temperature/hydrogen peroxide combination to inactivate 90% of the mold ascospores) were determined using thermal death tubes. D-values found for P. variotii ranged from 1.2 to 25.1 s after exposure to different combinations of heat (40 or 60 degrees C) and hydrogen peroxide (35 or 40% w/w) while for N. fischeri they varied from 2.7 to 14.3 s after exposure to the same hydrogen peroxide concentrations and higher temperatures (60 or 70 degrees C). The influence of temperature and hydrogen peroxide concentration on the d-values varied with the genus of mold and their ages. A synergistic effect of heat and hydrogen peroxide in reducing D-values of Paecilomyces variotti and N. fischeri has been observed. In addition to strict control of temperature, time and hydrogen concentration, hygienic storage and handling of laminated paperboard material must be considered to reduce the probability of package's contamination. All these measures together will ensure package's sterility that is imperative for the effectiveness of aseptic processing and consequently to ensure the microbiological stability of processed foods during shelf-life. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.