894 resultados para probability of error


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Introduction: Patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) are frequently administered prolonged and/or high doses of opioids which when removed can cause a withdrawal syndrome and difficulty in weaning from MV. We tested the hypothesis that the introduction of enteral methadone during weaning from sedation and analgesia in critically ill adult patients on MV would decrease the weaning time from MV. Methods: A double-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted in the adult intensive care units (ICUs) of four general hospitals in Brazil. The 75 patients, who met the criteria for weaning from MV and had been using fentanyl for more than five consecutive days, were randomized to the methadone (MG) or control group (CG). Within the first 24 hours after study enrollment, both groups received 80% of the original dose of fentanyl, the MG received enteral methadone and the CG received an enteral placebo. After the first 24 hours, the MG received an intravenous (IV) saline solution (placebo), while the CG received IV fentanyl. For both groups, the IV solution was reduced by 20% every 24 hours. The groups were compared by evaluating the MV weaning time and the duration of MV, as well as the ICU stay and the hospital stay. Results: Of the 75 patients randomized, seven were excluded and 68 were analyzed: 37 from the MG and 31 from the CG. There was a higher probability of early extubation in the MG, but the difference was not significant (hazard ratio: 1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 2.64; P = 0.11). The probability of successful weaning by the fifth day was significantly higher in the MG (hazard ratio: 2.64 (95% CI: 1.22 to 5.69; P < 0.02). Among the 54 patients who were successfully weaned (29 from the MG and 25 from the CG), the MV weaning time was significantly lower in the MG (hazard ratio: 2.06; 95% CI 1.17 to 3.63; P < 0.004). Conclusions: The introduction of enteral methadone during weaning from sedation and analgesia in mechanically ventilated patients resulted in a decrease in the weaning time from MV.

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There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.

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Background: Imatinib mesylate (IM) is a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor used for treating chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). IM has high efficacy, however some individuals develop a resistance due to impaired bio-availability. Polymorphisms in genes encoding membrane transporters such as ABCB1 have been associated with differences in protein expression and function that influence the response to several drugs. Aim: To investigate the relationship of ABCB1 polymorphisms with markers of response to IM in patients with CML Methods: One hundred eighteen CML patients initially treated with a standard dose of IM (400 mg/day) for 18 months were selected at two health centers in Sao Paulo City, Brazil. The response criteria were based on the European LeukemiaNet recommendations. ABCB1 polymorphisms c.1236C>T (rs1128503), c.3435C>T (rs1045642) and c.2677G>T/A (rs2032582) were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: ABCB1 polymorphisms were not related with a risk for CML in this sample population (p<0.05). In the CML group, frequencies of ABCB1 SNPs were similar between responder and non-responder patients (p>0.05). In the responder group, the frequency of ABCB11236CT/2677GT/3435CT haplotype was higher in patients with major molecular response (MMR) (51.7%) than in patients without MMR (8.3%, p = 0.010). Furthermore, carriers of this haplotype had increased the probability of reaching the MMR compared with the non-carriers (OR: 11.8; 95% CI: 1.43-97.3, p = 0.022). Conclusions: The ABCB1 1236CT/2677GT/3435CT haplotype is positively associated with the major molecular response to IM in CML patients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

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The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm(3) and >= 1000 mm(3)), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity off acilitating HIV diagnosis.

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This study reports on the influence of heat and hydrogen peroxide combination on the inactivation kinetics of two heat resistant molds: Neosartorya fischeri and Paecilomyces variotii. Spores of different ages (1 and 4 months) of these molds were prepared and D-values (the time required at certain temperature/hydrogen peroxide combination to inactivate 90% of the mold ascospores) were determined using thermal death tubes. D-values found for P. variotii ranged from 1.2 to 25.1 s after exposure to different combinations of heat (40 or 60 degrees C) and hydrogen peroxide (35 or 40% w/w) while for N. fischeri they varied from 2.7 to 14.3 s after exposure to the same hydrogen peroxide concentrations and higher temperatures (60 or 70 degrees C). The influence of temperature and hydrogen peroxide concentration on the d-values varied with the genus of mold and their ages. A synergistic effect of heat and hydrogen peroxide in reducing D-values of Paecilomyces variotti and N. fischeri has been observed. In addition to strict control of temperature, time and hydrogen concentration, hygienic storage and handling of laminated paperboard material must be considered to reduce the probability of package's contamination. All these measures together will ensure package's sterility that is imperative for the effectiveness of aseptic processing and consequently to ensure the microbiological stability of processed foods during shelf-life. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this article we present some results of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) studies carried out at the Lapa do Santo archaeological site. This cave is within the Lagoa Santa karstic region, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Results from 44 GPR profiles obtained with 400 MHz shielded antennas indicated anomalous hyperbolic reflections and areas with high sub-horizontal reflection amplitude suggesting archaeological and geological potential targets, respectively. These results were encouraging and were used to guide excavations at this site. Excavation of test units (metre by metre) allowed identifying an anthropogenic feature, e.g., a fire hearth structure and natural features, such as a stalagmite and top of bedrock. Results also indicated the importance of the GPR survey as a tool for orienting archaeological researches, increasing the probability of finding archaeological interest targets in an excavation program in an area of environmental protection.

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For many tree species, mating system analyses have indicated potential variations in the selfing rate and paternity correlation among fruits within individuals, among individuals within populations, among populations, and from one flowering event to another. In this study, we used eight microsatellite markers to investigate mating systems at two hierarchical levels (fruits within individuals and individuals within populations) for the insect pollinated Neotropical tree Tabebuia roseo-alba. We found that T. roseo-alba has a mixed mating system with predominantly outcrossed mating. The outcrossing rates at the population level were similar across two T. roseo-alba populations; however, the rates varied considerably among individuals within populations. The correlated paternity results at different hierarchical levels showed that there is a high probability of shared paternal parentage when comparing seeds within fruits and among fruits within plants and full-sibs occur in much higher proportion within fruits than among fruits. Significant levels of fixation index were found in both populations and biparental inbreeding is believed to be the main cause of the observed inbreeding. The number of pollen donors contributing to mating was low. Furthermore, open-pollinated seeds varied according to relatedness, including half-sibs, full-sibs, self-sibs and self- half-sibs. In both populations, the effective population size within a family (seed-tree and its offspring) was lower than expected for panmictic populations. Thus, seeds for ex situ conservation genetics, progeny tests and reforestation must be collected from a large number of seed-trees to guarantee an adequate effective population in the sample.

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The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goias State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

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This paper shows in detail the modelling of anisotropic polymeric foam under compression and tension loadings, including discussions on isotropic material models and the entire procedure to calibrate the parameters involved. First, specimens of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) foam were investigated through experimental analyses in order to understand the mechanical behavior of this anisotropic material. Then, isotropic material models available in the commercial software Abaqus (TM) were investigated in order to verify their ability to model anisotropic foams and how the parameters involved can influence the results. Due to anisotropy, it is possible to obtain different values for the same parameter in the calibration process. The obtained set of parameters are used to calibrate the model according to the application of the structure. The models investigated showed minor and major limitations to simulate the mechanical behavior of anisotropic PVC foams under compression, tension and multi-axial loadings. Results show that the calibration process and the choice of the material model applied to the polymeric foam can provide good quantitative results and save project time. Results also indicate what kind and order of error one will get if certain choices are made throughout the modelling process. Finally, even though the developed calibration procedure is applied to specific PVC foam, it still outlines a very broad drill to analyze other anisotropic cellular materials.

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Synechia is the most frequent complication after sinus surgery and has been reported in up to 36% of cases. Several types of materials have been used to reduce the incidence of synechia, including Mitomycin C (MMC). Objective: This prospective study aimed to assess the effectiveness of topical MMC in the prevention of synechia after sinus surgery in humans. Methods: At the end of surgery, MMC solution (1.0 mg/ml) was topically applied randomly to one of the middle meatuses (MMC group) of 14 patients while saline solution was applied to the contralateral meatus (control group). The author remained blind to the medicated side. Synechiae were classified as partial or total. Results: Three patients had middle meatus synechia in the MMC group (21.43%) versus nine (64.29%) in the control group (p = 0.054). In the MMC group, all three middle meatus synechia were partial, while in the control group there were four partial (28.57%) and five total (35.71%) cases of synechia (p = 0.025). Conclusions: Mitomycin C was not effective in preventing middle meatus synechia, but reduced the probability of total synechia formation.

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Alcoholism is a chronic disorder characterized by the appearance of a withdrawal syndrome following the abrupt cessation of alcohol intake that includes symptoms of physical and emotional disturbances, anxiety being the most prevalent symptom. In humans, it was shown that anxiety may increase the probability of relapse. In laboratory animals, however, the use of anxiety to predict alcohol preference has remained difficult. Excitatory amino acids as glutamate have been implicated in alcohol hangover and may be responsible for the seizures and anxiety observed during withdrawal. The dorsal periaqueductal gray (DPAG) is a midbrain region critical for the modulation/expression of anxiety- and fear-related behaviors and the propagation of seizures induced by alcohol withdrawal, the glutamate neurotransmission being one of the most affected. The present study was designed to evaluate whether low- (LA) and high-anxiety rats (HA), tested during the alcohol hangover phase, in which anxiety is the most prevalent symptom, are more sensitive to the reinforcing effects of alcohol when tested in a voluntary alcohol drinking procedure. Additionally, we were interested in investigating the main effects of reducing the excitatory tonus of the dorsal midbrain, after the blockade of the ionotropic glutamate receptors into the DPAG, on the voluntary alcohol intake of HA and LA motivated rats that were made previously experienced with the free operant response of alcohol drinking. For this purpose, we used local infusions of the N-metil D-Aspartato (NMDA) and alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA)-kainate receptors antagonist DL-2-Amino-7-phosphonoheptanoic acid - DL-AP7 (10 nmol/0.2 mu l) and L-glutamic acid diethyl ester - GDEE (160 nmol/0.2 mu l) respectively. Alcohol intoxication was produced by 10 daily bolus intraperitonial (IP) injections of alcohol (2.0 g/kg). Peak-blood alcohol levels were determined by gas-chromatography analysis in order to assess blood-alcohol content. Unconditioned and conditioned anxiety-like behavior was assessed by the use of the fear-potentiated startle procedure (FPS). Data collected showed that anxiety and alcohol drinking in HA animals are positively correlated in animals that were made previously familiarized with the anxiolytic effects of alcohol. In addition, anxiety-like behavior induced during alcohol hangover seems to be an effect of changes in glutamatergic neurotransmission into DPAG possibly involving AMPA/kainate and NMDA receptors, among others. (C) 2012 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Serracutisoma proximum is a harvestman with alternative male morphs. Large males use sexually dimorphic second legs in fights for the possession of territories on the vegetation, where females oviposit. Small males have short second legs and do not fight but rather sneak into the territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. We investigated the presence of male dimorphism across 10 populations of S. proximum, compared gonadal investment between male morphs, and assessed if the distribution of the sneakers is influenced by harem size. In all populations, there was male dimorphism, indicated by the bimodal distribution of the leg II length/body length. Gonadal investment did not differ between morphs and was not affected by male size, second leg length, and morph relative frequency in the populations. We found 361 territories, 90.0% containing 1 male, 9.7% containing 2 males (dyads), and 0.3% containing 3 males. The probability of encountering dyads increased with the number of females present in the territories. Moreover, the proportion of sneakers in territories containing dyads was higher than would be expected by chance. One possible reason for the ubiquity of alternative morphs in S. proximum could be the high mating opportunities experienced by sneakers in spatially structured populations with a resource defense polygyny system. Additionally, the high frequency of successful invasions by sneakers and hence the high sperm competition risk for both morphs may explain the similarity in gonadal investment between male morphs.

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Dynamical properties for a beam light inside a sinusoidally corrugated waveguide are discussed in this paper. The beam is confined inside two-mirrors: one is flat and the other one is sinusoidally corrugated. The evolution of the system is described by the use of a two-dimensional and nonlinear mapping. The phase space of the system is of mixed type therefore exhibiting a large chaotic sea, periodic islands and invariant KAM curves. A careful discussion of the numerical method to solve the transcendental equations of the mapping is given. We characterize the probability of observing successive reflections of the light by the corrugated mirror and show that it is scaling invariant with respect to the amplitude of the corrugation. Average properties of the chaotic sea are also described by the use of scaling arguments.