975 resultados para predictive value


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OBJECTIVES Molecular subclassification of non small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is essential to improve clinical outcome. This study assessed the prognostic and predictive value of circulating micro-RNA (miRNA) in patients with non-squamous NSCLC enrolled in the phase II SAKK (Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research) trial 19/05, receiving uniform treatment with first-line bevacizumab and erlotinib followed by platinum-based chemotherapy at progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS Fifty patients with baseline and 24 h blood samples were included from SAKK 19/05. The primary study endpoint was to identify prognostic (overall survival, OS) miRNA's. Patient samples were analyzed with Agilent human miRNA 8x60K microarrays, each glass slide formatted with eight high-definition 60K arrays. Each array contained 40 probes targeting each of the 1347 miRNA. Data preprocessing included quantile normalization using robust multi-array average (RMA) algorithm. Prognostic and predictive miRNA expression profiles were identified by Spearman's rank correlation test (percentage tumor shrinkage) or log-rank testing (for time-to-event endpoints). RESULTS Data preprocessing kept 49 patients and 424 miRNA for further analysis. Ten miRNA's were significantly associated with OS, with hsa-miR-29a being the strongest prognostic marker (HR=6.44, 95%-CI 2.39-17.33). Patients with high has-miR-29a expression had a significantly lower survival at 10 months compared to patients with a low expression (54% versus 83%). Six out of the 10 miRNA's (hsa-miRN-29a, hsa-miR-542-5p, hsa-miR-502-3p, hsa-miR-376a, hsa-miR-500a, hsa-miR-424) were insensitive to perturbations according to jackknife cross-validation on their HR for OS. The respective principal component analysis (PCA) defined a meta-miRNA signature including the same 6 miRNA's, resulting in a HR of 0.66 (95%-CI 0.53-0.82). CONCLUSION Cell-free circulating miRNA-profiling successfully identified a highly prognostic 6-gene signature in patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC. Circulating miRNA profiling should further be validated in external cohorts for the selection and monitoring of systemic treatment in patients with advanced NSCLC.

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OBJECTIVES Severe neurological deficit (ND) due to acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) was considered a contraindication for surgery because of poor prognosis. Recently, more aggressive indication for surgery despite neurological symptoms has shown acceptable postoperative clinical results. The aim of this study was to evaluate early and mid-term outcomes of patients with AADA presenting with acute ND. METHODS Data from 53 patients with new-onset ND who received surgical repair for AADA between 2005 and 2012 at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. ND was defined as focal motor or sensory deficit, hemiplegia, paraplegia, convulsions or coma. Neurological symptoms were evaluated preoperatively using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and at discharge as well as 3-6 months postoperatively using the mRS and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Involvement of carotid arteries was assessed in the pre- and postoperative computed tomography. Logistic regression analysis was performed to detect predictive factors for recovery of ND. RESULTS Of the 53 patients, 29 (54.7%) showed complete recovery from focal ND at follow-up. Neurological symptoms persisted in 24 (45.3%) patients, of which 8 (33%) died without neurological assessment at follow-up. Between the two groups (patients with recovery and those with persisting ND), there was no significant difference regarding the duration of hypothermic circulatory arrest (28 ± 14 vs 36 ± 20 min) or severely reduced consciousness (GCS <8). Multivariate analysis showed significant differences for the preoperative mRS between the two groups (P < 0.007). A high preoperative mRS was associated with persistence of neurological symptoms (P < 0.02). Cardiovascular risk factors, age or involvement of supra-aortic branches were not predictive for persistence of ND. CONCLUSION More than half of our patients recovered completely from ND due to AADA after surgery. Severity of clinical symptoms had a predictive value. Patients suffering from AADA and presenting with ND before surgery should not be excluded from emergency surgery.

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BACKGROUND Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is an accepted standard of care for locally advanced esophagogastric cancer. As only a subgroup benefits, a response-based tailored treatment would be of interest. The aim of our study was the evaluation of the prognostic and predictive value of clinical response in esophagogastric adenocarcinomas. METHODS Clinical response based on a combination of endoscopy and computed tomography (CT) scan was evaluated retrospectively within a prospective database in center A and then transferred to center B. A total of 686/740 (A) and 184/210 (B) patients, staged cT3/4, cN0/1 underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy and were then re-staged by endoscopy and CT before undergoing tumor resection. Of 184 patients, 118 (B) additionally had an interim response assessment 4-6 weeks after the start of chemotherapy. RESULTS In A, 479 patients (70 %) were defined as clinical nonresponders, 207 (30 %) as responders. Median survival was 38 months (nonresponders: 27 months, responders: 108 months, log-rank, p < 0.001). Clinical and histopathological response correlated significantly (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, clinical response was an independent prognostic factor (HR for death 1.4, 95 %CI 1.0-1.8, p = 0.032). In B, 140 patients (76 %) were nonresponders and 44 (24 %) responded. Median survival was 33 months, (nonresponders: 27 months, responders: not reached, p = 0.003). Interim clinical response evaluation (118 patients) also had prognostic impact (p = 0.008). Interim, preoperative clinical response and histopathological response correlated strongly (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION Preoperative clinical response was an independent prognostic factor in center A, while in center B its prognostic value could only be confirmed in univariate analysis. The accordance with histopathological response was good in both centers, and interim clinical response evaluation showed comparable results to preoperative evaluation.

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BACKGROUND Methylentetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) plays a major role in folate metabolism and consequently could be an important factor for the efficacy of a treatment with 5-fluorouracil. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of two well characterized constitutional MTHFR gene polymorphisms for primarily resected and neoadjuvantly treated esophagogastric adenocarcinomas. METHODS 569 patients from two centers were analyzed (gastric cancer: 218, carcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG II, III): 208 and esophagus (AEG I): 143). 369 patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery, 200 patients were resected without preoperative treatment. The MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms were determined in DNA from peripheral blood lymphozytes. Associations with prognosis, response and clinicopathological factors were analyzed retrospectively within a prospective database (chi-square, log-rank, cox regression). RESULTS Only the MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms had prognostic relevance in neoadjuvantly treated patients but it was not a predictor for response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The AC genotype of the MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms was significantly associated with worse outcome (p = 0.02, HR 1.47 (1.06-2.04). If neoadjuvantly treated patients were analyzed based on their tumor localization, the AC genotype of the MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms was a significant negative prognostic factor in patients with gastric cancer according to UICC 6th edition (gastric cancer including AEG type II, III: HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-2.0, p = 0.001) and 7th edition (gastric cancer without AEG II, III: HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.5-5.7, p = 0.003), not for AEG I. For both definitions of gastric cancer the AC genotype was confirmed as an independent negative prognostic factor in cox regression analysis. In primarily resected patients neither the MTHFR A1298C nor the MTHFR C677T polymorphisms had prognostic impact. CONCLUSIONS The MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms was an independent prognostic factor in patients with neoadjuvantly treated gastric adenocarcinomas (according to both UICC 6th or 7th definitions for gastric cancer) but not in AEG I nor in primarily resected patients, which confirms the impact of this enzyme on chemotherapy associated outcome.

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OBJECTIVE To systematically review evidence on genetic risk factors for carbamazepine (CBZ)-induced hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) and provide practice recommendations addressing the key questions: (1) Should genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 be performed in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy to reduce the occurrence of CBZ-induced HSRs? (2) Are there subgroups of patients who may benefit more from genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 or HLA-A*31:01 compared to others? (3) How should patients with an indication for CBZ therapy be managed based on their genetic test results? METHODS A systematic literature search was performed for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 and their association with CBZ-induced HSRs. Evidence was critically appraised and clinical practice recommendations were developed based on expert group consensus. RESULTS Patients carrying HLA-B*15:02 are at strongly increased risk for CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) in populations where HLA-B*15:02 is common, but not CBZ-induced hypersensitivity syndrome (HSS) or maculopapular exanthema (MPE). HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported from Asian countries only, including China, Thailand, Malaysia, and India. HLA-B*15:02 is rare among Caucasians or Japanese; no HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported so far in these groups. HLA-A*31:01-positive patients are at increased risk for CBZ-induced HSS and MPE, and possibly SJS/TEN and acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP). This association has been shown in Caucasian, Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and patients of mixed origin; however, HLA-A*31:01 is common in most ethnic groups. Not all patients carrying either risk variant develop an HSR, resulting in a relatively low positive predictive value of the genetic tests. SIGNIFICANCE This review provides the latest update on genetic markers for CBZ HSRs, clinical practice recommendations as a basis for informed decision making regarding the use of HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy, and identifies knowledge gaps to guide future research. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here.

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Objective: Current data show a favorable outcome after poor grade subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in up to 50% of patients. This limits the use of the WFNS scale for drawing treatment decisions. We therefore analyzed how clinical signs of herniation might improve the existing WFNS grading. Therefore we compared the current WFNS grading and a modified WFNS grading with respect to outcome. Method: We performed a retrospective study including 182 poor grade SAH patients. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally into a modified classification the “WFNS herniation” (WFNSh grade IV: no herniation; grade V clinical signs of herniation). Outcome was compared between these two grading systems with respect to the dichotomized modified Rankin scale after 6 months. Results: The WFNS and WFNSh showed a positive predictive value (PPV) for poor outcome of 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.94, 7.54) and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI=3.78, 19.47), respectively. With respect to mortality the PPV was 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI=2.01, 7.69) for the WFNS grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI=3.07, 13.14) for the WFNSh grade V. Conclusions: Using positive clinical signs of herniation instead of “no response to pain stimuli” (motor Glasgow Coma Scale Score) can improve WFNS V grading. Using this modification, prediction of poor outcome or death improves.

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With more experience in the labor market, some job characteristics increase, some decrease. For example, among young employees who just entered the labor market, job control may initially be low but increase with more routine and experience. Job control is a job resource that is valued in itself and is positively associated with job satisfaction; but job control also helps dealing with stressors at work. There is little research on correlated changes, but the existing evidence suggests a joint development over time. However, even less is known about the relevance of such changes for employees. Usually, research tends to use mean levels to predict mean levels in outcomes but development in job control and stressors may be as relevant for job satisfaction as having a certain level in those job characteristics. Job satisfaction typically is regarded as a positive attitude towards one’s work. What has received less attention is that some employees may lower their expectations if their job situation does not reflect their needs, resulting in a resigned attitude towards one’s job. The present study investigates the development of job control and task-related stressors over ten years and tests the predictive value of changes in job control and task-related stressors for resigned attitude towards one’s job. We used data from a Swiss panel study (N=356) ranging over ten years. Job control, task-related stressors (an index consisting of time pressure, concentration demands, performance constraints, interruptions, and uncertainty about tasks), and resigned attitude towards one’s job were assessed in 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2008. Latent growth modeling revealed that growth rates of job control and task-related stressors were not correlated with one another. We predicted resigned attitude towards one’s job in 2008 a) by initial levels, and b) by changes in job control and stressors, controlling for resigned attitude in 1998. There was some prediction by initial levels (job control: β = -.15, p < .05; task-related stressors: β = .12, p = .06). However, as expected, changes in control and stressors predicted resigned attitude much better, with β = -.37, p < .001, for changes in job control, and β = .31, p < .001, for changes in task-related stressors. Our data confirm the importance of having low levels of task-related stressors and higher levels of job control for job attitudes. However, development in these job characteristics seems even more important than initial levels.

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BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain (LBP) is crucial. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study was to identify in patients with a new episode of LBP the time point at which those at risk of developing persistent LBP can be best identified.METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 315 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a first episode of acute LBP. Primary outcome measure was functional limitation. Patients were assessed at baseline, three, six, twelve weeks and six months looking at factors of maladaptive cognition as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all time points. RESULTS The best time point to predict the development of persistent LBP at six months was the twelve-week follow-up (sensitivity 78%; overall predictive value 90%). Cognitions assessed at first visit to a health practitioner were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS Maladaptive cognitions at twelve weeks appear to be suitable predictors for a transition from acute to persistent LBP. Already three weeks after patients present to a health practitioner with acute LBP cognitions might influence the development of persistent LBP. Therefore, cognitive-behavioral interventions should be considered as early adjuvant LBP treatment in patients at risk of developing persistent LBP.

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Instruments for on-farm determination of colostrum quality such as refractometers and densimeters are increasingly used in dairy farms. The colour of colostrum is also supposed to reflect its quality. A paler or mature milk-like colour is associated with a lower colostrum value in terms of its general composition compared with a more yellowish and darker colour. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between colour measurement of colostrum using the CIELAB colour space (CIE L*=from white to black, a*=from red to green, b*=from yellow to blue, chroma value G=visual perceived colourfulness) and its composition. Dairy cow colostrum samples (n=117) obtained at 4·7±1·5 h after parturition were analysed for immunoglobulin G (IgG) by ELISA and for fat, protein and lactose by infrared spectroscopy. For colour measurements, a calibrated spectrophotometer was used. At a cut-off value of 50 mg IgG/ml, colour measurement had a sensitivity of 50·0%, a specificity of 49·5%, and a negative predictive value of 87·9%. Colostral IgG concentration was not correlated with the chroma value G, but with relative lightness L*. While milk fat content showed a relationship to the parameters L*, a*, b* and G from the colour measurement, milk protein content was not correlated with a*, but with L*, b*, and G. Lactose concentration in colostrum showed only a relationship with b* and G. In conclusion, parameters of the colour measurement showed clear relationships to colostral IgG, fat, protein and lactose concentration in dairy cows. Implementation of colour measuring devices in automatic milking systems and milking parlours might be a potential instrument to access colostrum quality as well as detecting abnormal milk.

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Objectives: To examine the predictive value of early improvement for short- and long-term outcome in the treatment of depressive female inpatients and to explore the influence of comorbid disorders (CD). Methods: Archival data of a naturalistic sample of 277 female inpatients diagnosed with a depressive disorder was analyzed assessing the BDI at baseline, after 20 days and 30 days, posttreatment, and after 3 to 6 months at follow-up. Early improvement, defined as a decrease in the BDI score of at least 30% after 20 and after 30 days, and CD were analyzed using binary logistic regression. Results: Both early improvement definitions were predictive of remission at posttreatment. Early improvement after 30 days showed a sustained treatment effect in the follow-up phase, whereas early improvement after 20 days failed to show a persistent effect regarding remission at follow-up. CD were not significantly related neither at posttreatment nor at follow-up. At no time point CD moderated the prediction by early improvement. Conclusions: We show that early improvement is a valid predictor for short-term remission and at follow-up in an inpatient setting. CD did not predict outcome. Further studies are needed to identify patient subgroups amenable to more tailored treatments.

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Objectives The present study investigated the predictive value of the explicit and implicit affiliation motive for social behavior in sport competitions. From an information processing perspective, an explicit motive is linked to verbal cues and respondent behavior. The implicit motive in turn is linked to nonverbal stimuli and operant behavior (McClelland, Koestner, & Weinberger, 1989; Schultheiss, 2008). Both respondent affiliative behavior (e.g., verbal interactions with teammates) and operant nonverbal social behavior (e.g., pleasant to opponents) can be observed in racquet sports team competitions. Design & Methods Fifty-two male racquet sportsmen completed the Personality Research Form (explicit affiliation motive) and the Operant Motive Test (implicit affiliation motive). Motive measures were used to predict social behavior during competitions using multiple regression analyses. To this aim real competitive matches were videotaped and analyzed. Results Results show that the explicit affiliation motive is associated with time spent in verbal team contact. The implicit affiliation motive, by contrast, is linked to pleasant nonverbal behavior shown toward opponents. Conclusions Findings suggest that implicit and explicit affiliation motives predict different kinds of social behavior in sports competition respectively. Indirect motive measures may be of additional predictive value for different behavior in real sports settings.

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OBJECTIVE To evaluate treatment response of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with a new real-time imaging fusion technique of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) with multi-slice detection computed tomography (CT) in comparison to conventional post-interventional follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS 40 patients with HCC (26 male, ages 46-81 years) were evaluated 24 hours after TACE using CEUS with ultrasound volume navigation and image fusion with CT compared to non-enhanced CT and follow-up contrast-enhanced CT after 6-8 weeks. Reduction of tumor vascularization to less than 25% was regarded as "successful" treatment, whereas reduction to levels >25% was considered as "partial" treatment response. Homogenous lipiodol retention was regarded as successful treatment in non-enhanced CT. RESULTS Post-interventional image fusion of CEUS with CT was feasible in all 40 patients. In 24 patients (24/40), post-interventional image fusion with CEUS revealed residual tumor vascularity, that was confirmed by contrast-enhanced CT 6-8 weeks later in 24/24 patients. In 16 patients (16/40), post-interventional image fusion with CEUS demonstrated successful treatment, but follow-up CT detected residual viable tumor (6/16). Non-enhanced CT did not identify any case of treatment failure. Image fusion with CEUS assessed treatment efficacy with a specificity of 100%, sensitivity of 80% and a positive predictive value of 1 (negative predictive value 0.63). CONCLUSIONS Image fusion of CEUS with CT allows a reliable, highly specific post-interventional evaluation of embolization response with good sensitivity without any further radiation exposure. It can detect residual viable tumor at early state, resulting in a close patient monitoring or re-therapy.

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PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.

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Objectives: Depression is associated with poor prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that depressive symptoms at discharge from a cardiac rehabilitation program are associated with an increased risk of future CVD-related hospitalizations. Methods: We examined 486 CVD patients (mean age = 59.8 ± 11.2) who enrolled in a comprehensive 3-month rehabilitation program and completed the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). At follow-up we evaluated the predictive value of depressive symptoms for CVD-related hospitalizations, controlling for sociodemographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and disease severity. Results: During a mean follow-up of 41.5 ± 15.6 months, 63 patients experienced a CVD-related hospitalization. The percentage of depressive patients (HADS-D ≥ 8) decreased from 16.9% at rehabilitation entry to 10.7% at discharge. Depressive symptoms at discharge from rehabilitation were a significant predictor of outcome (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09–1.60; p =0.004). Patients with clinically relevant depressive symptoms at discharge had a 2.5-fold increased relative risk of poor cardiac prognosis compared to patients without clinically relevant depressive symptoms independently of other prognostic variables. Conclusion: In patients with CVD, depressive symptoms at discharge from rehabilitation indicated a poor cardiac prognosis.

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Abstract Previous work highlighted the possibility that musical training has an influence on cognitive functioning. The suggested reason for this influence is the strong recruitment of attention, planning, and working memory functions during playing a musical instrument. The purpose of the present work was twofold, namely to evaluate the general relationship between pre-stimulus electrophysiological activity and cognition, and more specifically the influence of musical expertise on working memory functions. With this purpose in mind, we used covariance mapping analyses to evaluate whether pre-stimulus electroencephalographic activity is predictive for reaction time during a visual working memory task (Sternberg paradigm) in musicians and non-musicians. In line with our hypothesis, we replicated previous findings pointing to a general predictive value of pre-stimulus activity for working memory performance. Most importantly, we also provide first evidence for an influence of musical expertise on working memory performance that could distinctively be predicted by pre-stimulus spectral power. Our results open novel perspectives for better comprehending the vast influences of musical expertise on cognition.