Predicting crashes using traffic offences. A meta-analysis that examines potential bias between self-report and archival data

Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.

Resource recovery potential from secondary components of segregated municipal solid wastes

Fermentable components of municipal solid wastes (MSW) such as fruit and vegetable wastes (FVW), leaf litter, paddy straw, cane bagasse, cane trash and paper are generated in large quantities at various pockets of the city. These form potential feedstocks for decentralized biogas plants to be operated in the vicinity. We characterized the fermentation potential of six of the above MSW fractions for their suitability to be converted to biogas and anaerobic compost using the solid-state stratified bed (SSB) process in a laboratory study. FVW and leaf litter (papermulberry leaves) decomposed almost completely while paddy straw, sugarcane trash, sugarcane bagasse and photocopying paper decomposed to a lower extent. In the SSB process between 50-60% of the biological methane potential (BMP) could be realized. Observations revealed that the SSB process needs to be adapted differently for each of the feedstocks to obtain a higher gas recovery. Bagasse produced the largest fraction of anaerobic compost (fermentation residue) and has the potential for reuse in many ways.

Direct and Inverse Scattering for Beltrami Fields

We consider an obstacle scattering problem for linear Beltrami fields. A vector field is a linear Beltrami field if the curl of the field is a constant times itself. We study the obstacles that are of Neumann type, that is, the normal component of the total field vanishes on the boundary of the obstacle. We prove the unique solvability for the corresponding exterior boundary value problem, in other words, the direct obstacle scattering model. For the inverse obstacle scattering problem, we deduce the formulas that are needed to apply the singular sources method. The numerical examples are computed for the direct scattering problem and for the inverse scattering problem.

Appendiceal sonography in children: A retrospective analysis as a platform for potential implementation of diagnostic categories

- Background Sonography is an important diagnostic tool in children with suspected appendicitis. Reported accuracy and appendiceal visualisation rates vary significantly, as does the management of equivocal ultrasound findings. The aim of this study was to audit appendiceal sonography at a tertiary children's hospital, and provide baseline data for a future prospective study. - Summary of work Records of children who underwent ultrasound studies for possible appendicitis between January 2008 and December 2010 were reviewed. Variables included patient demographics, sonographic appendix characteristics, and secondary signs. Descriptive statistics and analysis using ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test, and ROC curves were performed. Mater Human Research Ethic Committee approval was granted. - Summary of results There were 457 eligible children. Using a dichotomous diagnostic model (including equivocal results), sensitivity was 89.6%, specificity 91.6%, and diagnostic yield of 40.7%. ROC curve analysis of a 6mm diameter cut-off was 0.88 AUC (95% CI 0.80 to 0.95). - Discussion and conclusions Sonography is an accurate test for acute appendicitis in children, with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value. A diameter of 6mm as an absolute cut-off in a binary model can lead to false findings. Results were compared with available literature. Recent publications propose categorising diameter1 and integrating secondary signs2 to improve accuracy and provide more meaningful results to clinicians. This study will be a benchmark for future studies with multiple diagnostic categorisation.

Comparison of partial extraction reagents for assessing potential bioavailability of heavy metals in sediments

Assessment of heavy metal bioavailability in sediments is complex because of the number of partial extraction methods available for the assessment and the general lack of certified reference materials. This study evaluates five different extraction methodologies to ascertain the relative strengths and weaknesses of each method. The results are then compared to previously published work to ascertain the most effective partial extraction technique, which was established to be dilute (0.75 – 1 M) nitric acid solutions. These results imply that single reagent; weak acid extractions provide a better assessment of potentially bioavailable metals than the chelating agents used in sequential extraction methods.

Context-based assessment: Creating opportunities for resonance between classroom fields and societal fields

There is on-going international interest in the relationships between assessment instruments, students’ understanding of science concepts and context-based curriculum approaches. This study extends earlier research showing that students can develop connections between contexts and concepts – called fluid transitions – when studying context-based courses. We provide an in-depth investigation of one student’s experiences with multiple contextual assessment instruments that were associated with a context-based course. We analyzed the student’s responses to context-based assessment instruments to determine the extent to which contextual tests, reports of field investigations, and extended experimental investigations afforded her opportunities to make connections between contexts and concepts. A system of categorizing student responses was developed that can inform other educators when analyzing student responses to contextual assessment. We also refine the theoretical construct of fluid transitions that informed the study initially. Implications for curriculum and assessment design are provided in light of the findings.

Metabolic enzymes as potential drug targets in Plasmodium falciparum.

Plasmodium falciparum causes the most severe form of malaria that is fatal in many cases. Emergence of drug resistant strains of P. falciparum requires that new drug targets be-identified. This review considers in detail enzymes of the glycolytic pathway, purine salvage pathway, pyrimidine biosynthesis and proteases involved in catabolism of haemoglobin. Structural features of P. falciparum triosephosphate isomerase which could be exploited for parasite specific drug development have been highlighted. Utility of P. falciparum hypoxanthine-guanine-phosphoribosyltransferase, adenylosuccinate synthase, dihydroorotate dehydrogenase, thymidylate synthase-dihydrofolate reductase, cysteine and aspartic proteases have been elaborated in detail. The review also briefly touches upon other potential targets in P. falciparum

The dynamics of solvation of an electron in the image potential state by a layer of polar adsorbates

Recently, ultrafast two-photon photoemission has been used to study electron solvation at a two-dimensional metal/polar adsorbate interfaces [A. Miller , Science 297, 1163 (2002)]. The electron is bound to the surface by the image interaction. Earlier we have suggested a theoretical description of the states of the electron interacting with a two-dimensional layer of the polar adsorbate [K. L. Sebastian , J. Chem. Phys. 119, 10350 (2003)]. In this paper we have analyzed the dynamics of electron solvation, assuming a trial wave function for the electron and the solvent polarization and then using the Dirac-Frenkel variational method to determine it. The electron is initially photoexcited to a delocalized state, which has a finite but large size, and causes the polar molecules to reorient. This reorientation acts back on the electron and causes its wave function to shrink, which will cause further reorientation of the polar molecules, and the process continues until the electron gets self-trapped. For reasonable values for the parameters, we are able to obtain fair agreement with the experimental observations. (c) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

Regeneration ecology and woody species diversity in the remnant natural forest at Wondo Genet, Ethiopia – Potential for landscape restoration

Regeneration ecology, diversity of native woody species and its potential for landscape restoration was studied in the remnant natural forest at the College of Forestry and Natural Resources at Wondo Genet, Ethiopia. The type of forest is Afromontane rainforest , with many valuable tree species like Aningeria adolfi-friederici, and it is an important provider of ecological, social and economical services for the population that lives in this area. The study contains two parts, natural regeneration studies (at the natural forest) and interviews with farmers in the nearby village of the remnant patch. The objective of the first part was to investigate the floristic composition, densitiy and regeneration profiles of native woody species in the forest, paying special attention to woody species that are considered the most relevant (socio-economic). The second part provided information on woody species preferred by the farmers and on multiple uses of the adjacent natural forest, it also provided information and analysed perceptions on forest degradation. Systematic plot sampling was used in the forest inventory. Twenty square plots of 20 x 20 m were assessed, with 38 identified woody species (the total number of species was 45), representing 26 families. Of these species 61% were trees, 13% shrubs, 11% lianas and 16% species that could have both life forms. An analysis of natural regeneration of five important tree species in the natural forest showed that Aningeria adolfi-friederici had the best regeneration results. An analysis of population structure (as determined by height classes) of two commercially important woody species in the forest, Aningeria adolfi-friederici and Podocarpus falcatus, showed a marked difference: Aningeria had a typical “reversed J” frequency distribution, while Podocarpus showed very low values in all height classes. Multi dimensional scaling (MDS) was used to map the sample plots according to their similarity in species composition, using the Sørensen quantitative index, coupled with indicator species analysis .Three groups were identified with respective indicator species: Group 1 – Adhatoda schimperiana, Group 2 – Olea hochstetteri , Group 3 – Acacia senegal and Aningeria adolfi-friederici. Thirty questionnaire interviews were conducted with farmers in the village of Gotu Onoma that use the nearby remant forest patch. Their tree preferences were exotic species such as Eucalyptus globulus for construction and fuelwood and Grevillea robusta for shade and fertility. Considering forest land degradation farmers were aware of the problem and suggested that the governmental institutions address the problem by planting more Eucalyptus globulus. The natural forest seemed to have moderate levels of disturbance and it was still floristically diverse. However, the low rate of natural regeneration of Podocarpus falcatus suggested that this species is threatened and must be a priority in conservation actions. Plantations and agroforestry seem to be possible solutions for rehabilitation of the surrounding degraded lands, thereby decreasing the existent pressure in the remnant natural forest.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Climatic potential of delta O-18 of Abies spectabilis from the Nepal Himalaya

A 50-year tree-ring delta O-18 chronology of Abies spectabilis growing close to the tree line (3850 m asl) in the Nepal Himalaya is established to explore its dendroclimatic potential. Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring delta O-18 is primarily governed by rainfall during the monsoon season (June September), and the regression model accounts for 35% of the variance in rainfall. Extreme dry years identified in instrumental weather data are detected in the delta O-18 chronology. Further, tree-ring delta O-18 is much more sensitive to rainfall fluctuations than other tree-ring parameters such as width and density typically used in dendroclimatology. Correlation analyses with Nino 3.4 SST reveal time-dependent behavior of ENSO-monsoon relationships. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Dark solitons in holographic superfluids

We construct dark soliton solutions in a holographic model of a relativistic superfluid. We study the length scales associated with the condensate and the charge density depletion, and find that the two scales differ by a non-trivial function of the chemical potential. By adjusting the chemical potential, we study the variation of the depletion of charge density at the interface.

Urey-Bradley potential function for the in-plane vibrations of boric acid

The Urey-Bradley force constants for the in-plane vibrations of the boric acid molecule are calculated using the Wilson's F-G matrix method. They are as follows: KO-H=5·23, KB-O=4·94, HBOH=0·36, {Mathematical expression}, F00=0·68 and FBH=0·98 in units of 105 dynes/cm. Using the force constants, the frequencies are recalculated and the calculated values agree with the observed values satisfactorily. The in-plane vibrational frequencies of deuterated boric acid are also calculated and again satisfactory agreement with the observed values is found.

Assessing the mitigation potential of forestry activities in a changing climate: A case study for Karnataka

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol allows Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) projects as mitigation activities to offset the CO2 in the atmosphere whilst simultaneously seeking to ensure sustainable development for the host country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified by the Government of India in August 2002 and one of India's objectives in acceding to the Protocol was to fulfil the prerequisites for implementation of projects under the CDM in accordance with national sustainable priorities. The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using large-scale forestry projects under the CDM in achieving its twin goals using Karnataka State as a case study. The Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (GCOMAP) Model is used to observe the effect of varying carbon prices on the land available for A/R projects. The model is coupled with outputs from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to incorporate the impacts of temperature rise due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B1. With rising temperatures and CO2, vegetation productivity is increased under A2 and A1B scenarios and reduced under B1. Results indicate that higher carbon price paths produce higher gains in carbon credits and accelerate the rate at which available land hits maximum capacity thus acting as either an incentive or disincentive for landowners to commit their lands to forestry mitigation projects. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential functions for hydrogen bond interactions - III. Empirical Potential Function for the Peptide N-H...O=C Hydrogen Bond

A careful comparison of the distribution in the (R, θ)-plane of all NH ... O hydrogen bonds with that for bonds between neutral NH and neutral C=O groups indicated that the latter has a larger mean R and a wider range of θ and that the distribution was also broader than for the average case. Therefore, the potential function developed earlier for an average NH ... O hydrogen bond was modified to suit the peptide case. A three-parameter expression of the form {Mathematical expression}, with △ = R - Rmin, was found to be satisfactory. By comparing the theoretically expected distribution in R and θ with observed data (although limited), the best values were found to be p1 = 25, p3 = - 2 and q1 = 1 × 10-3, with Rmin = 2·95 Å and Vmin = - 4·5 kcal/mole. The procedure for obtaining a smooth transition from Vhb to the non-bonded potential Vnb for large R and θ is described, along with a flow chart useful for programming the formulae. Calculated values of ΔH, the enthalpy of formation of the hydrogen bond, using this function are in reasonable agreement with observation. When the atoms involved in the hydrogen bond occur in a five-membered ring as in the sequence[Figure not available: see fulltext.] a different formula for the potential function is needed, which is of the form Vhb = Vmin +p1△2 +q1x2 where x = θ - 50° for θ ≥ 50°, with p1 = 15, q1 = 0·002, Rmin = 2· Å and Vmin = - 2·5 kcal/mole. © 1971 Indian Academy of Sciences.