Gas transport in firn: multiple-tracer characterisation and model intercomparison for NEEM, Northern Greenland

Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (1 age) at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling has traditionally been attributed to a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by meltwater discharges. However, alternative explanations such as strong negative radiative forcing14 and a shift in atmospheric circulation have also been offered. Here we investigate the importance of these different forcings in coupled climate model experiments constrained by data assimilation. We find that the Younger Dryas climate signal as registered in proxy evidence is best simulated using a combination of processes: a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation. We conclude that none of the individual mechanisms alone provide a plausible explanation for the Younger Dryas cold period. We suggest that the triggers for abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas are more complex than suggested so far, and that studies on the response of the climate system to perturbations should account for this complexity.

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

AIMS The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT). METHODS AND RESULTS Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups. CONCLUSION We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.

Multiple functions of gingival and mucoperiosteal fibroblasts in oral wound healing and repair

Fibroblasts are cells of mesenchymal origin. They are responsible for the production of most extracellular matrix in connective tissues and are essential for wound healing and repair. In recent years, it has become clear that fibroblasts from different tissues have various distinct traits. Moreover, wounds in the oral cavity heal under very special environmental conditions compared with skin wounds. Here, we reviewed the current literature on the various interconnected functions of gingival and mucoperiosteal fibroblasts during the repair of oral wounds. The MEDLINE database was searched with the following terms: (gingival OR mucoperiosteal) AND fibroblast AND (wound healing OR repair). The data gathered were used to compare oral fibroblasts with fibroblasts from other tissues in terms of their regulation and function during wound healing. Specifically, we sought answers to the following questions: (i) what is the role of oral fibroblasts in the inflammatory response in acute wounds; (ii) how do growth factors control the function of oral fibroblasts during wound healing; (iii) how do oral fibroblasts produce, remodel and interact with extracellular matrix in healing wounds; (iv) how do oral fibroblasts respond to mechanical stress; and (v) how does aging affect the fetal-like responses and functions of oral fibroblasts? The current state of research indicates that oral fibroblasts possess unique characteristics and tightly controlled specific functions in wound healing and repair. This information is essential for developing new strategies to control the intraoral wound-healing processes of the individual patient.

Usability and Acceptability of ASSESS MS: Assessment of Motor Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Using Depth-Sensing Computer Vision

Background: Sensor-based recordings of human movements are becoming increasingly important for the assessment of motor symptoms in neurological disorders beyond rehabilitative purposes. ASSESS MS is a movement recording and analysis system being developed to automate the classification of motor dysfunction in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using depth-sensing computer vision. It aims to provide a more consistent and finer-grained measurement of motor dysfunction than currently possible. Objective: To test the usability and acceptability of ASSESS MS with health professionals and patients with MS. Methods: A prospective, mixed-methods study was carried out at 3 centers. After a 1-hour training session, a convenience sample of 12 health professionals (6 neurologists and 6 nurses) used ASSESS MS to capture recordings of standardized movements performed by 51 volunteer patients. Metrics for effectiveness, efficiency, and acceptability were defined and used to analyze data captured by ASSESS MS, video recordings of each examination, feedback questionnaires, and follow-up interviews. Results: All health professionals were able to complete recordings using ASSESS MS, achieving high levels of standardization on 3 of 4 metrics (movement performance, lateral positioning, and clear camera view but not distance positioning). Results were unaffected by patients’ level of physical or cognitive disability. ASSESS MS was perceived as easy to use by both patients and health professionals with high scores on the Likert-scale questions and positive interview commentary. ASSESS MS was highly acceptable to patients on all dimensions considered, including attitudes to future use, interaction (with health professionals), and overall perceptions of ASSESS MS. Health professionals also accepted ASSESS MS, but with greater ambivalence arising from the need to alter patient interaction styles. There was little variation in results across participating centers, and no differences between neurologists and nurses. Conclusions: In typical clinical settings, ASSESS MS is usable and acceptable to both patients and health professionals, generating data of a quality suitable for clinical analysis. An iterative design process appears to have been successful in accounting for factors that permit ASSESS MS to be used by a range of health professionals in new settings with minimal training. The study shows the potential of shifting ubiquitous sensing technologies from research into the clinic through a design approach that gives appropriate attention to the clinic environment.

Twenty years' experience with the Swiss data registry for assisted reproductive medicine: outcomes, key trends and recommendations for improved practice.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY The impact of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on Swiss demography was quantified. From 1993 to 2012 the number of deliveries, including multiples, generated by ART was compared with overall delivery numbers. Swiss experts in ART collaborated in a consensus to increase successful outcomes, to reduce the incidence of complications of ART and to validate recommendations through statistical review of available data. METHODS Data generated between 1993 and 2012 and published by the Federal Office of Statistics (BfS) were compared with the Swiss database on ART (FIVNAT-CH) as organised by the Swiss Society of Reproductive Medicine (SGRM). From these analyses a panel of Swiss experts in ART extracted recommendations to improve current practice, to prevent complications related to ART and to recommend changes in current Swiss legislation dealing with ART. RESULTS Since 1993 the age of women giving birth rose together with the number of women asking for ART. This demographic trend was reflected in a rise in the number of deliveries generated by ART (in 2012: 2.2%) and the proportion of multiple births (in 2012: 17.6%). The outcome of ART was most negatively influenced by the age of the treated patient. The number of retrieved oocytes decisively impacted the likelihood of delivery, the risk of multiple births and the incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Optimal ovarian stimulation should be designed for the retrieval of 10 to 15 oocytes per treatment. Swiss legislation should enable and stimulate a policy of elective single embryo transfer to avoid multiple births.

A fixed-links modeling approach to assess individual differences in the attentional blink: Analysis of behavioral and psychophysiological data

The attentional blink (AB) is a fundamental limitation of the ability to select relevant information from irrelevant information. It can be observed with the detection rate in an AB task as well as with the corresponding P300 amplitude of the event-related potential. In previous research, however, correlations between these two levels of observation were weak and rather inconsistent. A possible explanation of this finding might be that multiple processes underlie the AB and, thus, obscure a possible relationship between AB-related detection rate and the corresponding P300 amplitude. The present study investigated this assumption by applying a fixed-links modeling approach to represent behavioral individual differences in the AB as a latent variable. Concurrently, this approach enabled us to control for additional sources of variance in AB performance by deriving two additional latent variables. The correlation between the latent variable reflecting behavioral individual differences in AB magnitude and a corresponding latent variable derived from the P300 amplitude was high (r=.70). Furthermore, this correlation was considerably stronger than the correlations of other behavioral measures of the AB magnitude with their psychophysiological counterparts (all rs<.40). Our findings clearly indicate that the systematic disentangling of various sources of variance by utilizing the fixed-links modeling approach is a promising tool to investigate behavioral individual differences in the AB and possible psychophysiological correlates of these individual differences.

Patterns of landscape form in the upper Rhône basin, Central Swiss Alps, predominantly show lithologic controls despite multiple glaciations and variations in rock uplift rates

The development of topography depends mainly on the interplay between uplift and erosion. These processes are controlled by various factors including climate, glaciers, lithology, seismic activity and short-term variables, such as anthropogenic impact. Many studies in orogens all over the world have shown how these controlling variables may affect the landscape's topography. In particular, it has been hypothesized that lithology exerts a dominant control on erosion rates and landscape morphology. However, clear demonstrations of this influence are rare and difficult to disentangle from the overprint of other signals such as climate or tectonics. In this study we focus on the upper Rhône Basin situated in the Central Swiss Alps in order to explore the relation between topography, possible controlling variables and lithology in particular. The Rhône Basin has been affected by spatially variable uplift, high orographically driven rainfalls and multiple glaciations. Furthermore, lithology and erodibility vary substantially within the basin. Thanks to high-resolution geological, climatic and topographic data, the Rhône Basin is a suitable laboratory to explore these complexities. Elevation, relief, slope and hypsometric data as well as river profile information from digital elevation models are used to characterize the landscape's topography of around 50 tributary basins. Additionally, uplift over different timescales, glacial inheritance, precipitation patterns and erodibility of the underlying bedrock are quantified for each basin. Results show that the chosen topographic and controlling variables vary remarkably between different tributary basins. We investigate the link between observed topographic differences and the possible controlling variables through statistical analyses. Variations of elevation, slope and relief seem to be linked to differences in long-term uplift rate, whereas elevation distributions (hypsometry) and river profile shapes may be related to glacial imprint. This confirms that the landscape of the Rhône Basin has been highly preconditioned by (past) uplift and glaciation. Linear discriminant analyses (LDAs), however, suggest a stronger link between observed topographic variations and differences in erodibility. We therefore conclude that despite evident glacial and tectonic conditioning, a lithologic control is still preserved and measurable in the landscape of the Rhône tributary basins.

Impact of Software Settings on Multiple-Breath Washout Outcomes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Multiple-breath washout (MBW) is an attractive test to assess ventilation inhomogeneity, a marker of peripheral lung disease. Standardization of MBW is hampered as little data exists on possible measurement bias. We aimed to identify potential sources of measurement bias based on MBW software settings. METHODS We used unprocessed data from nitrogen (N2) MBW (Exhalyzer D, Eco Medics AG) applied in 30 children aged 5-18 years: 10 with CF, 10 formerly preterm, and 10 healthy controls. This setup calculates the tracer gas N2 mainly from measured O2 and CO2concentrations. The following software settings for MBW signal processing were changed by at least 5 units or >10% in both directions or completely switched off: (i) environmental conditions, (ii) apparatus dead space, (iii) O2 and CO2 signal correction, and (iv) signal alignment (delay time). Primary outcome was the change in lung clearance index (LCI) compared to LCI calculated with the settings as recommended. A change in LCI exceeding 10% was considered relevant. RESULTS Changes in both environmental and dead space settings resulted in uniform but modest LCI changes and exceeded >10% in only two measurements. Changes in signal alignment and O2 signal correction had the most relevant impact on LCI. Decrease of O2 delay time by 40 ms (7%) lead to a mean LCI increase of 12%, with >10% LCI change in 60% of the children. Increase of O2 delay time by 40 ms resulted in mean LCI decrease of 9% with LCI changing >10% in 43% of the children. CONCLUSIONS Accurate LCI results depend crucially on signal processing settings in MBW software. Especially correct signal delay times are possible sources of incorrect LCI measurements. Algorithms of signal processing and signal alignment should thus be optimized to avoid susceptibility of MBW measurements to this significant measurement bias.

A simulation study on the statistical monitoring of condemnation rates from slaughterhouses for syndromic surveillance: an evaluation based on Swiss data

Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.

Computer-based summative assessment of clinical reasoning in clerkships: A mixed-method comparison of key feature problems with case-based multiple choice questions

Background: It is yet unclear if there are differences between using electronic key feature problems (KFPs) or electronic case-based multiple choice questions (cbMCQ) for the assessment of clinical decision making. Summary of Work: Fifth year medical students were exposed to clerkships which ended with a summative exam. Assessment of knowledge per exam was done by 6-9 KFPs, 9-20 cbMCQ and 9-28 MC questions. Each KFP consisted of a case vignette and three key features (KF) using “long menu” as question format. We sought students’ perceptions of the KFPs and cbMCQs in focus groups (n of students=39). Furthermore statistical data of 11 exams (n of students=377) concerning the KFPs and (cb)MCQs were compared. Summary of Results: The analysis of the focus groups resulted in four themes reflecting students’ perceptions of KFPs and their comparison with (cb)MCQ: KFPs were perceived as (i) more realistic, (ii) more difficult, (iii) more motivating for the intense study of clinical reasoning than (cb)MCQ and (iv) showed an overall good acceptance when some preconditions are taken into account. The statistical analysis revealed that there was no difference in difficulty; however KFP showed a higher discrimination and reliability (G-coefficient) even when corrected for testing times. Correlation of the different exam parts was intermediate. Conclusions: Students perceived the KFPs as more motivating for the study of clinical reasoning. Statistically KFPs showed a higher discrimination and higher reliability than cbMCQs. Take-home messages: Including KFPs with long menu questions into summative clerkship exams seems to offer positive educational effects.

Exclusion of leptophilic dark matter models using XENON100 electronic recoil data

We have searched for periodic variations of the electronic recoil event rate in the (2-6) keV energy range recorded between February 2011 and March 2012 with the XENON100 detector, adding up to 224.6 live days in total. Following a detailed study to establish the stability of the detector and its background contributions during this run, we performed an un-binned profile likelihood analysis to identify any periodicity up to 500 days. We find a global significance of less than 1 sigma for all periods suggesting no statistically significant modulation in the data. While the local significance for an annual modulation is 2.8 sigma, the analysis of a multiple-scatter control sample and the phase of the modulation disfavor a dark matter interpretation. The DAMA/LIBRA annual modulation interpreted as a dark matter signature with axial-vector coupling of WIMPs to electrons is excluded at 4.8 sigma.

Search for Event Rate Modulation in XENON100 Electronic Recoil Data

We have searched for periodic variations of the electronic recoil event rate in the (2-6) keV energy range recorded between February 2011 and March 2012 with the XENON100 detector, adding up to 224.6 live days in total. Following a detailed study to establish the stability of the detector and its background contributions during this run, we performed an un-binned profile likelihood analysis to identify any periodicity up to 500 days. We find a global significance of less than 1 sigma for all periods suggesting no statistically significant modulation in the data. While the local significance for an annual modulation is 2.8 sigma, the analysis of a multiple-scatter control sample and the phase of the modulation disfavor a dark matter interpretation. The DAMA/LIBRA annual modulation interpreted as a dark matter signature with axial-vector coupling of WIMPs to electrons is excluded at 4.8 sigma.

CYTOGENETIC AND DNA CONTENT ANALYSIS IN MULTIPLE MYELOMA

In this dissertation, the cytogenetic characteristics of bone marrow cells from 41 multiple myeloma patients were investigated. These cytogenetic data were correlated with the total DNA content as measured by flow cytometry. Both the cytogenetic information and DNA content were then correlated with clinical data to determine if diagnosis and prognosis of multiple myeloma could be improved.^ One hundred percent of the patients demonstrated abnormal chromosome numbers per metaphase. The average chromosome number per metaphase ranged from 42 to 49.9, with a mean of 44.99. The percent hypodiploidy ranged from 0-100% and the percent hyperdiploidy from 0-53%. Detailed cytogenetic analyses were very difficult to perform because of the paucity of mitotic figures and the poor chromosome morphology. Thus, detailed chromosome banding analysis on these patients was impossible.^ Thirty seven percent of the patients had normal total DNA content, whereas 63% had abnormal amounts of DNA (one patient with less than normal amounts and 25 patients with greater than normal amounts of DNA).^ Several clinical parameters were used in the statistical analyses: tumor burden, patient status at biopsy, patient response status, past therapy, type of treatment and percent plasma cells. Only among these clinical parameters were any statistically significant correlations found: pretreatment tumor burden versus patient response, patient biopsy status versus patient response and past therapy versus patient response.^ No correlations were found between percent hypodiploid, diploid, hyperdiploid or DNA content, and the patient response status, nor were any found between those patients with: (a) normal plasma cells, low pretreatment tumor mass burden and more than 50% of the analyzed metaphases with 46 chromosomes; (b) normal amounts of DNA, low pretreatment tumor mass burden and more than 50% of the metaphases with 46 chromosomes; (c) normal amounts of DNA and normal quantities of plasma cells; (d) abnormal amounts of DNA, abnormal amounts of plasma cells, high pretreatment tumor mass burden and less than 50% of the metaphases with 46 chromosomes.^ Technical drawbacks of both cytogenetic and DNA content analysis in these multiple myeloma patients are discussed along with the lack of correlations between DNA content and chromosome number. Refined chromosome banding analysis awaits technical improvements before we can understand which chromosome material (if any) makes up the "extra" amounts of DNA in these patients. None of the correlations tested can be used as diagnostic or prognostic aids for multiple myeloma. ^

Extracting more out of relocation data: building movement models as mixtures of random walks

We present a framework for fitting multiple random walks to animal movement paths consisting of ordered sets of step lengths and turning angles. Each step and turn is assigned to one of a number of random walks, each characteristic of a different behavioral state. Behavioral state assignments may be inferred purely from movement data or may include the habitat type in which the animals are located. Switching between different behavioral states may be modeled explicitly using a state transition matrix estimated directly from data, or switching probabilities may take into account the proximity of animals to landscape features. Model fitting is undertaken within a Bayesian framework using the WinBUGS software. These methods allow for identification of different movement states using several properties of observed paths and lead naturally to the formulation of movement models. Analysis of relocation data from elk released in east-central Ontario, Canada, suggests a biphasic movement behavior: elk are either in an "encamped" state in which step lengths are small and turning angles are high, or in an "exploratory" state, in which daily step lengths are several kilometers and turning angles are small. Animals encamp in open habitat (agricultural fields and opened forest), but the exploratory state is not associated with any particular habitat type.