Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0 degrees and 90 degrees W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2 degrees C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27 degrees to 1.08 degrees C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Climate-induced effects on the meroplankton and the benthic-pelagic ecology of the North Sea

Analyses of long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature (SST) data reveal that the annual planktonic larval abundance of three benthic phyla, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Mollusca, responds positively and immediately to SST. Long-term outcomes for the planktonic abundance of these three phyla are different, however. The planktonic larvae of echinoderms and decapod crustaceans have increased in abundance from 1958 to 2005, and especially since the mid-1980s, as North Sea SST has increased. In contrast, the abundance of bivalve mollusc larvae has declined, despite the positive year-to-year relationship between temperature and bivalve larval abundance continuing to hold. We argue that the changes in meroplankton abundance, coincident with increased phytoplankton and declining holoplankton, reflect the synchronous effect of rising SST and related changes in the pelagic community on the reproduction and recruitment of many benthic marine invertebrates. Under this scenario, the long-term decline in bivalve mollusc larvae will reflect increased predation on the settled larvae and adults by benthic decapods. These alterations in the zooplankton may therefore describe an ecosystem-wide restructuring of North Sea trophic interactions.

Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere.

Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how "similar" zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (vertical bar r vertical bar = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single "warm-and-low-productivity" vs. "cool-and-high-productivity" component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative ("cool" and "productive") or near zero except positive in the El Nino years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and increasingly positive ("warm" and "low productivity") from 1992 to 1998; negative from 1999 to 2002; and again increasingly positive from 2003-present. We suggest that, in strongly seasonal environments, anomalously high temperature may provide misleading environmental cues that contribute to timing mismatch between life history events and the more-nearly-fixed seasonality of insolation, stratification, and food supply. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Environmental hypoxia but not minor shell damage affects scope for growth and body condition in the blue mussel Mytilus edulis (L.)

The effects of short-term (7 d) exposure to environmental hypoxia (2.11 mg O-2 L-1; control: 6.96 mg O-2 L-1) and varying degrees of shell damage (1 or 2, 1 mm diameter holes; control: no holes) on respiration rate, clearance rate, ammonia excretion rate, scope for growth (SFG) and body condition index were investigated in adult blue mussels (Mytilus edulis). There was a significant hypoxia-related reduction in SFG (>6.70 to 0.92J g(-1) h(-1)) primarily due to a reduction in energy acquisition as a result of reduced clearance rates during hypoxia. Shell damage had no significant affect on any of the physiological processes measured or the SFG calculated. Body condition was unaffected by hypoxia or shell damage. In conclusion, minor physical damage to mussels had no effect on physiological energetics but environmental hypoxia compromised growth, respiration and energy acquisition presumably by reducing feeding rates.

Ocean acidification has different effects on the production of DMS and DMSP measured in cultures of Emiliania huxleyi and a mesocosm study: a comparison of laboratory monocultures and community interactions

The human-induced rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the industrial revolution has led to increasing oceanic carbon uptake and changes in seawater carbonate chemistry, resulting in lowering of surface water pH. In this study we investigated the effect of increasing CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) on concentrations of volatile biogenic dimethylsulfide (DMS) and its precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), through monoculture studies and community pCO2 perturbation. DMS is a climatically important gas produced by many marine algae: it transfers sulfur into the atmosphere and is a major influence on biogeochemical climate regulation through breakdown to sulfate and formation of subsequent cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Overall, production of DMS and DMSP by the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi strain RCC1229 was unaffected by growth at 900 matm pCO2, but DMSP production normalised to cell volume was 12% lower at the higher pCO2 treatment. These cultures were compared with community DMS and DMSP production during an elevated pCO2 mesocosm experiment with the aim of studying E. huxleyi in the natural environment. Results contrasted with the culture experiments and showed reductions in community DMS and DMSP concentrations of up to 60 and 32% respectively at pCO2 up to 3000 matm, with changes attributed to poorer growth of DMSP-producing nanophytoplankton species, including E. huxleyi, and potentially increased microbial consumption of DMSand dissolvedDMSPat higher pCO2.DMSandDMSPproduction differences between culture and community likely arise from pH affecting the inter-species responses between microbial producers and consumers.

Drivetrain Effects on Small Engine Performance

Presented is a study that expands the body of knowledge on the effect of in-cycle speed fluctuations on performance of small engines. It uses the methods developed previously by Callahan, et al. (1) to examine a variety of two-stroke engines and one four-stroke engine. The two-stroke engines were: a high performance single-cylinder, a low performance single-cylinder, a high performance multi-cylinder, and a medium performance multi-cylinder. The four-stroke engine was a high performance single-cylinder unit. Each engine was modeled in Virtual Engines, which is a fully detailed one-dimensional thermodynamic engine simulator. Measured or predicted in-cycle speed data were input into the engine models. Predicted performance changes due to drivetrain effects are shown in each case, and conclusions are drawn from those results. The simulations for the high performance single-cylinder two-stroke engine predicted significant in-cycle crankshaft speed fluctuation amplitudes and significant changes in performance when the fluctuations were input into the engine model. This was validated experimentally on a firing test engine based on a Yamaha YZ250. The four-stroke engine showed significant changes in predicted performance compared to the prediction with zero speed fluctuation assumed in the model. Measured speed fluctuations from a firing Yamaha YZ400F engine were applied to the simulation in addition to data from a simple free mass model. Both methods predicted similar fluctuation profiles and changes in performance. It is shown that the gear reduction between the crankshaft and clutch allowed for this similar behavior. The multi-cylinder, high performance two-stroke engine also showed significant changes in performance, in this case depending on the firing configuration. The low output two-stroke engine simulation showed only a negligible change in performance in spite of high amplitude speed fluctuations. This was due to its flat torque versus speed characteristic. The medium performance multi-cylinder two-stroke engine also showed only a negligible change in performance, in this case due to a relatively high inertia rotating assembly and multiple cylinder firing events within the revolution. These smoothed the net torque pulsations and reduced the amplitude of the speed fluctuation itself.

The effects of blood pressure lowering on development of cognitive impairment and dementia in patients without apparent prior cerebrovascular disease

BACKGROUND: Hypertension and cognitive impairment are prevalent in older people. It is known that hypertension is a direct risk factor for vascular dementia and recent studies have suggested hypertension also impacts upon prevalence of Alzheimer's disease. The question is therefore whether treatment of hypertension lowers the rate of cognitive decline. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of blood pressure lowering treatments for the prevention of dementia and cognitive decline in patients with hypertension but no history of cerebrovascular disease. SEARCH STRATEGY: The trials were identified through a search of CDCIG's Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL on 27 April 2005. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trials in which pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions to lower blood pressure were given for at least six months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two independent reviewers assessed trial quality and extracted data. The following outcomes were assessed: incidence of dementia, cognitive change from baseline, blood pressure level, incidence and severity of side effects and quality of life. MAIN RESULTS: Three trials including 12,091 hypertensive subjects were identified. Average age was 72.8 years. Participants were recruited from industrialised countries. Mean blood pressure at entry across the studies was 170/84 mmHg. All trials instituted a stepped care approach to hypertension treatment, starting with a calcium-channel blocker, a diuretic or an angiotensin receptor blocker. The combined result of the three trials reporting incidence of dementia indicated no significant difference between treatment and placebo (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.89, 95% CI 0.69, 1.16). Blood pressure reduction resulted in a 11% relative risk reduction of dementia in patients with no prior cerebrovascular disease but this effect was not statistically significant (p = 0.38) and there was considerable heterogeneity between the trials. The combined results from the two trials reporting change in Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) did not indicate a benefit from treatment (Weighted Mean Difference (WMD) = 0.10, 95% CI -0.03, 0.23). Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels were reduced significantly in the two trials assessing this outcome (WMD = -7.53, 95% CI -8.28, -6.77 for systolic blood pressure, WMD = -3.87, 95% CI -4.25, -3.50 for diastolic blood pressure).Two trials reported adverse effects requiring discontinuation of treatment and the combined results indicated a significant benefit from placebo (OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.30). When analysed separately, however, more patients on placebo in SCOPE were likely to discontinue treatment due to side effects; the converse was true in SHEP 1991. Quality of life data could not be analysed in the three studies. There was difficulty with the control group in this review as many of the control subjects received antihypertensive treatment because their blood pressures exceeded pre-set values. In most cases the study became a comparison between the study drug against a usual antihypertensive regimen. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There was no convincing evidence from the trials identified that blood pressure lowering prevents the development of dementia or cognitive impairment in hypertensive patients with no apparent prior cerebrovascular disease. There were significant problems identified with analysing the data, however, due to the number of patients lost to follow-up and the number of placebo patients given active treatment. This introduced bias. More robust results may be obtained by analysing one year data to reduce differential drop-out or by conducting a meta-analysis using individual patient data.

Is perception of upper body orientation based on the inertia tensor? Normogravity versus microgravity conditions

During lateral leg raising, a synergistic inclination of the supporting leg and trunk in the opposite direction to the leg movement is performed in order to preserve equilibrium. As first hypothesized by Pagano and Turvey (J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform, 1995, 21:1070-1087), the perception of limb orientation could be based on the orientation of the limb's inertia tensor. The purpose of this study was thus to explore whether the final upper body orientation (trunk inclination relative to vertical) depends on changes in the trunk inertia tensor. We imposed a loading condition, with total mass of 4 kg added to the subject's trunk in either a symmetrical or asymmetrical configuration. This changed the orientation of the trunk inertia tensor while keeping the total trunk mass constant. In order to separate any effects of the inertia tensor from the effects of gravitational torque, the experiment was carried out in normo- and microgravity. The results indicated that in normogravity the same final upper body orientation was maintained irrespective of the loading condition. In microgravity, regardless of loading conditions the same (but different from the normogravity) orientation of the upper body was achieved through different joint organizations: two joints (the hip and ankle joints of the supporting leg) in the asymmetrical loading condition, and one (hip) in the symmetrical loading condition. In order to determine whether the different orientations of the inertia tensor were perceived during the movement, the interjoint coordination was quantified by performing a principal components analysis (PCA) on the supporting and moving hips and on the supporting ankle joints. It was expected that different loading conditions would modify the principal component of the PCA. In normogravity, asymmetrical loading decreased the coupling between joints, while in microgravity a strong coupling was preserved whatever the loading condition. It was concluded that the trunk inertia tensor did not play a role during the lateral leg raising task because in spite of the absence of gravitational torque the final upper body orientation and the interjoint coupling were not influenced.

Effects of short-term chemical ablation of the GIP receptor on insulin secretion, islet morphology and glucose homeostasis in mice

Glucosedependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is an incretin hormone secreted by endocrine Kcells in response to nutrient absorption. In this study we have utilized a specific and enzymatically stable GIP receptor antagonist, (Pro(3))GIP, to evaluate the contribution of endogenous GIP to insulin secretion and glucose homeostasis in mice. Daily injection of (Pro(3))GIP (25 nmol/kg body weight) for 11 days had no effect on food intake or body weight. Nonfasting plasma glucose concentrations were significantly raised (p

Effects of the novel (Pro(3))GIP antagonist and exendin(9-39)amide on GIP- and GLP-1-induced cyclic AMP generation, insulin secretion and postprandial insulin release in obese diabetic (ob/ob) mice: evidence that GIP is the major physiological incretin

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study examined the biological effects of the GIP receptor antagonist, (Pro3)GIP and the GLP-1 receptor antagonist, exendin(9-39)amide.

METHODS: Cyclic AMP production was assessed in Chinese hamster lung fibroblasts transfected with human GIP or GLP-1 receptors, respectively. In vitro insulin release studies were assessed in BRIN-BD11 cells while in vivo insulinotropic and glycaemic responses were measured in obese diabetic ( ob/ ob) mice.

RESULTS: In GIP receptor-transfected fibroblasts, (Pro(3))GIP or exendin(9-39)amide inhibited GIP-stimulated cyclic AMP production with maximal inhibition of 70.0+/-3.5% and 73.5+/-3.2% at 10(-6) mol/l, respectively. In GLP-1 receptor-transfected fibroblasts, exendin(9-39)amide inhibited GLP-1-stimulated cyclic AMP production with maximal inhibition of 60+/-0.7% at 10(-6) mol/l, whereas (Pro(3))GIP had no effect. (Pro(3))GIP specifically inhibited GIP-stimulated insulin release (86%; p<0.001) from clonal BRIN-BD11 cells, but had no effect on GLP-1-stimulated insulin release. In contrast, exendin(9-39)amide inhibited both GIP and GLP-1-stimulated insulin release (57% and 44%, respectively; p<0.001). Administration of (Pro(3))GIP, exendin(9-39)amide or a combination of both peptides (25 nmol/kg body weight, i.p.) to fasted (ob/ob) mice decreased the plasma insulin responses by 42%, 54% and 49%, respectively (p<0.01 to p<0.001). The hyperinsulinaemia of non-fasted (ob/ob) mice was decreased by 19%, 27% and 18% (p<0.05 to p<0.01) by injection of (Pro3)GIP, exendin(9-39)amide or combined peptides but accompanying changes of plasma glucose were small.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These data show that (Pro(3))GIP is a specific GIP receptor antagonist. Furthermore, feeding studies in one commonly used animal model of obesity and diabetes, (ob/ob) mice, suggest that GIP is the major physiological component of the enteroinsular axis, contributing approximately 80% to incretin-induced insulin release.

Concertedness and solvent effects in multiple proton transfer reactions: The formic acid dimer in solution

The issue of multiple proton transfer (PT) reactions in solution is addressed by performing molecular dynamics simulations for a formic acid dimer embedded in a water cluster. The reactant species is treated quantum mechanically, within a density functional approach, while the solvent is represented by a classical model. By constraining different distances within the dimer we analyze the PT process in a variety of situations representative of more complex environments. Free energy profiles are presented, and analyzed in terms of typical solvated configurations extracted from the simulations. A decrease in the PT barrier height upon solvation is rationalized in terms of a transition state which is more polarized than the stable states. The dynamics of the double PT process is studied in a low-barrier case and correlated with solvent polarization fluctuations. Cooperative effects in the motion of the two protons are observed in two different situations: when the solvent polarization does not favor the transfer of one of the two protons and when the motion of the two protons is not synchronized. This body of observations is correlated with local structural and dynamical properties of the solvent in the vicinity of the reactant. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(00)51121-0].

Making the law accessible to non-lawyers: effects of different kinds of expertise on perceived usability of online legal information services

To help design an environment in which professionals without legal training can make effective use of public sector legal information on planning and the environment - for Add-Wijzer, a European e-government project - we evaluated their perceptions of usefulness and usability. In concurrent think-aloud usability tests, lawyers and non-lawyers carried out information retrieval tasks on a range of online legal databases. We found that non-lawyers reported twice as many difficulties as those with legal training (p = 0.001), that the number of difficulties and the choice of database affected successful completion, and that the non-lawyers had surprisingly few problems understanding legal terminology. Instead, they had more problems understanding the syntactical structure of legal documents and collections. The results support the constraint attunement hypothesis (CAH) of the effects of expertise on information retrieval, with implications for the design of systems to support the effective understanding and use of information.