Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

Knowledge and use of asthma control measurement tools in the management of asthma: a survey of doctors working in family and internal medicine practice in Nigeria.

Objective: To investigate the knowledge and use of asthma control measurement (ACM) tools in the management of asthma among doctors working in family and internal medicine practice in Nigeria. Method: A questionnaire based on the global initiative on asthma (GINA) guideline was self-administered by 194 doctors. It contains 12 test items on knowledge of ACM tools and its application. The knowledge score was obtained by adding the correct answers and classified as good if the score ≥ 9, satisfactory if score was 6-8 and poor if < 6. Results: The overall doctors knowledge score of ACM tools was 4.49±2.14 (maximum of 12). Pulmonologists recorded the highest knowledge score of 10.75±1.85. The majority (69.6%) had poor knowledge score of ACM tools. Fifty (25.8%) assessed their patients’ level of asthma control and 34(17.5%) at every visit. Thirty-nine (20.1%) used ACM tools in their consultation, 29 (15.0%) of them used GINA defined control while 10 (5.2 %) used asthma control test (ACT). The use of the tools was associated with pulmonologists, having attended CME within six months and graduated within five years prior to the survey. Conclusion: The results highlight the poor knowledge and use of ACM tools and the need to address the knowledge gap.

Scalable synthetic method for IT-SOFCs compounds

Póster presentado en: 12th EUROPEAN SOFC & SOE FORUM 2016. 5–8 July 2016, KKL Lucerne/Switzerland

UNDERSTANDING CUSTOMER CHOICES IN SERVICE OUTSOURCING AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT

This dissertation investigates customer behavior modeling in service outsourcing and revenue management in the service sector (i.e., airline and hotel industries). In particular, it focuses on a common theme of improving firms’ strategic decisions through the understanding of customer preferences. Decisions concerning degrees of outsourcing, such as firms’ capacity choices, are important to performance outcomes. These choices are especially important in high-customer-contact services (e.g., airline industry) because of the characteristics of services: simultaneity of consumption and production, and intangibility and perishability of the offering. Essay 1 estimates how outsourcing affects customer choices and market share in the airline industry, and consequently the revenue implications from outsourcing. However, outsourcing decisions are typically endogenous. A firm may choose whether to outsource or not based on what a firm expects to be the best outcome. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by proposing a structural model which could capture a firm’s profit-maximizing decision-making behavior in a market. This makes possible the prediction of consequences (i.e., performance outcomes) of future strategic moves. Another emerging area in service operations management is revenue management. Choice-based revenue systems incorporate discrete choice models into traditional revenue management algorithms. To successfully implement a choice-based revenue system, it is necessary to estimate customer preferences as a valid input to optimization algorithms. The third essay investigates how to estimate customer preferences when part of the market is consistently unobserved. This issue is especially prominent in choice-based revenue management systems. Normally a firm only has its own observed purchases, while those customers who purchase from competitors or do not make purchases are unobserved. Most current estimation procedures depend on unrealistic assumptions about customer arriving. This study proposes a new estimation methodology, which does not require any prior knowledge about the customer arrival process and allows for arbitrary demand distributions. Compared with previous methods, this model performs superior when the true demand is highly variable.

Cow, farm, and herd management factors in the dry period associated with raised somatic cell counts in early lactation

This study investigated cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on somatic cell counts (SCC) in early lactation. Data from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales were collected over a 2-yr period. For the purpose of analysis, cows were separated into those housed for the dry period (6,419 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (7,425 cow-dry periods). Bayesian multilevel models were specified with 2 response variables: ln SCC (continuous) and SCC >199,000 cells/mL (binary), both within 30 d of calving. Cow factors associated with an increased SCC after calving were parity, an SCC >199,000 cells/mL in the 60 d before drying off, increasing milk yield 0 to 30 d before drying off, and reduced DIM after calving at the time of SCC estimation. Herd management factors associated with an increased SCC after calving included procedures at drying off, aspects of bedding management, stocking density, and method of pasture grazing. Posterior predictions were used for model assessment, and these indicated that model fit was generally good. The research demonstrated that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on SCC in early lactation.

Active versus passive management : the case of BOVESPA

Mestrado em Finanças

Integrated pest management and the (un)sustainable use of pesticides

Doutoramento em Engenharia Agronómica - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Development of an innovative non rule-based energy management strategy for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle, structured for predictive driving controls based on external information knowledge

Recently, the interest of the automotive market for hybrid vehicles has increased due to the more restrictive pollutants emissions legislation and to the necessity of decreasing the fossil fuel consumption, since such solution allows a consistent improvement of the vehicle global efficiency. The term hybridization regards the energy flow in the powertrain of a vehicle: a standard vehicle has, usually, only one energy source and one energy tank; instead, a hybrid vehicle has at least two energy sources. In most cases, the prime mover is an internal combustion engine (ICE) while the auxiliary energy source can be mechanical, electrical, pneumatic or hydraulic. It is expected from the control unit of a hybrid vehicle the use of the ICE in high efficiency working zones and to shut it down when it is more convenient, while using the EMG at partial loads and as a fast torque response during transients. However, the battery state of charge may represent a limitation for such a strategy. That’s the reason why, in most cases, energy management strategies are based on the State Of Charge, or SOC, control. Several studies have been conducted on this topic and many different approaches have been illustrated. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an online (usable on-board) control strategy in which the operating modes are defined using an instantaneous optimization method that minimizes the equivalent fuel consumption of a hybrid electric vehicle. The equivalent fuel consumption is calculated by taking into account the total energy used by the hybrid powertrain during the propulsion phases. The first section presents the hybrid vehicles characteristics. The second chapter describes the global model, with a particular focus on the energy management strategies usable for the supervisory control of such a powertrain. The third chapter shows the performance of the implemented controller on a NEDC cycle compared with the one obtained with the original control strategy.

Hydro-Physical Characterization of Media Used in Agricultural Systems to Develop the Best Management Practices for operation of an Environmentally Sustainable Agricultural Enterprise

Florida is the second leading horticulture state in the United States with a total annual industry sale of over $12 Billion. Due to its competitive nature, agricultural plant production represents an extremely intensive practice with large amounts of water and fertilizer usage. Agrochemical and water management are vital for efficient functioning of any agricultural enterprise, and the subsequent nutrient loading from such agricultural practices has been a concern for environmentalists. A thorough understanding of the agrochemical and the soil amendments used in these agricultural systems is of special interest as contamination of soils can cause surface and groundwater pollution leading to ecosystem toxicity. The presence of fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades, Biscayne Bay and Big Cypress near enterprises that use such agricultural systems makes the whole issue even more imminent. Although significant research has been conducted with soils and soil mix, there is no acceptable method for determining the hydraulic properties of mixtures that have been subjected to organic and inorganic soil amendments. Hydro-physical characterization of such mixtures can facilitate the understanding of water retention and permeation characteristics of the commonly used mix which can further allow modeling of soil water interactions. The objective of this study was to characterize some of the locally and commercially available plant growth mixtures for their hydro-physical properties and develop mathematical models to correlate these acquired basic properties to the hydraulic conductivity of the mixture. The objective was also to model the response patterns of soil amendments present in those mixtures to different water and fertilizer use scenarios using the characterized hydro-physical properties with the help of Everglades-Agro-Hydrology Model. The presence of organic amendments helps the mixtures retain more water while the inorganic amendments tend to adsorb more nutrients due to their high surface area. The results of these types of characterization can provide a scientific basis for understanding the non-point source water pollution from horticulture production systems and assist in the development of the best management practices for the operation of environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

The effect of sample and sample matrix on DNA processing: Mechanisms for the detection and management of inhibition in forensic samples

The presence of inhibitory substances in biological forensic samples has, and continues to affect the quality of the data generated following DNA typing processes. Although the chemistries used during the procedures have been enhanced to mitigate the effects of these deleterious compounds, some challenges remain. Inhibitors can be components of the samples, the substrate where samples were deposited or chemical(s) associated to the DNA purification step. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the extraction processes and their ability to handle the various types of inhibitory substances can help define the best analytical processing for any given sample. A series of experiments were conducted to establish the inhibition tolerance of quantification and amplification kits using common inhibitory substances in order to determine if current laboratory practices are optimal for identifying potential problems associated with inhibition. DART mass spectrometry was used to determine the amount of inhibitor carryover after sample purification, its correlation to the initial inhibitor input in the sample and the overall effect in the results. Finally, a novel alternative at gathering investigative leads from samples that would otherwise be ineffective for DNA typing due to the large amounts of inhibitory substances and/or environmental degradation was tested. This included generating data associated with microbial peak signatures to identify locations of clandestine human graves. Results demonstrate that the current methods for assessing inhibition are not necessarily accurate, as samples that appear inhibited in the quantification process can yield full DNA profiles, while those that do not indicate inhibition may suffer from lowered amplification efficiency or PCR artifacts. The extraction methods tested were able to remove >90% of the inhibitors from all samples with the exception of phenol, which was present in variable amounts whenever the organic extraction approach was utilized. Although the results attained suggested that most inhibitors produce minimal effect on downstream applications, analysts should practice caution when selecting the best extraction method for particular samples, as casework DNA samples are often present in small quantities and can contain an overwhelming amount of inhibitory substances.^

Favorability conditions in the adoption of agile method practices for software development in a public banking

The main purpose of this paper is to propose and test a model to assess the degree of conditions favorability in the adoption of agile methods to develop software where traditional methods predominate. In order to achieve this aim, a survey was applied on software developers of a Brazilian public retail bank. Two different statistical techniques were used in order to assess the quantitative data from the closed questions in the survey. The first, exploratory factorial analysis validated the structure of perspectives related to the agile model of the proposed assessment. The second, frequency distribution analysis to categorize the answers. Qualitative data from the survey opened question were analyzed with the technique of qualitative thematic content analysis. As a result, the paper proposes a model to assess the degree of favorability conditions in the adoption of Agile practices within the context of the proposed study.

Moral reasoning in sport: validation of the Portuguese version of the RSBH value-judgement inventory in adolescents

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of the Portuguese version of the Rudd Stoll Beller Hahm Value-judgement Inventory (RSBHVI) in a sample of adolescents. The RSBHVI, which measures moral and social reasoning, was translated using a back translation method. A sample of 238 10th to 12th grade high school students (age mean value 16.93 years, s = 1.34) completed the Portuguese versions of RSBH, and the Task and Ego-orientation Questionnaire. Partial support for the original structure of the moral reasoning scale, but not the social reasoning scale, was found. Females, and non-athletes and individual sport athletes scored significantly higher than males and team sport athletes in moral reasoning, respectively. Moral reasoning was negatively correlated with ego-orientation (r = −30; p <. 001) and uncorrelated with task-orientation (r = .10, p > .05). Participants who were low-ego scored higher in moral reasoning than those who were high-ego. It is suggested that decreasing levels of ego-orientation may be necessary to improve athletes’ moral reasoning.

Gill net selectivity for European hake Merluccius merluccius from southern Portugal: implications for fishery management

A study of European hake Merluccius merluccius gill net selectivity was undertaken off the Algarve (Southern Portugal), between 1999 and 2001. Four nominal mesh sizes (70, 80, 90 and 100 mm) were used in fishing trials and the 'share each length class catch total' (SELECT) method was used to fit gill net selectivity curves. Hake were caught in the same size range by all mesh sizes, between 17 and 65 cm total length. While most fishes were wedged, significant and similar proportions were entangled in all mesh sizes, contributing to the wide size range, and in some cases, bimodal shape of catch size frequency distributions. Insignificant numbers of undersized hake were caught, with most catches consisting of mature female fish. Catch rates decreased sharply with increasing mesh size. The bimodal model gave the best fit for hake that were wedged, with estimated modal lengths of 40.1, 46.7 and 51.0 cm for the 70, 80 and 90 mm nominal mesh sizes, respectively. The high catch per unit effort of the smallest mesh size, with most fish caught being female, together with the fact that the modal length of the fitted selectivity curve is well below the size at maturity for hake in Portuguese waters, suggests that the 80 mm nominal mesh size is more appropriate for ensuring resource sustainability.

Congenital thoracic vertebral malformations in brachycephalic “screw-tailed” dog breeds: Validation of a human classification scheme and a method of Cobb angle measurement in the assessment of vertebral column deformity

Congenital vertebral malformations are common in brachycephalic “screw-tailed” dog breeds such as French bulldogs, English bulldogs, Boston terriers, and Pugs. Those vertebral malformations disrupt the normal vertebral column anatomy and biomechanics, potentially leading to deformity of the vertebral column and subsequent neurological dysfunction. The initial aim of this work was to study and determine whether the congenital vertebral malformations identified in those breeds could be translated in a radiographic classification scheme used in humans to give an improved classification, with clear and well-defined terminology, with the expectation that this would facilitate future study and clinical management in the veterinary field. Therefore, two observers who were blinded to the neurologic status of the dogs classified each vertebral malformation based on the human classification scheme of McMaster and were able to translate them successfully into a new classification scheme for veterinary use. The following aim was to assess the nature and the impact of vertebral column deformity engendered by those congenital vertebral malformations in the target breeds. As no gold standard exists in veterinary medicine for the calculation of the degree of deformity, it was elected to adapt the human equivalent, termed the Cobb angle, as a potential standard reference tool for use in veterinary practice. For the validation of the Cobb angle measurement method, a computerised semi-automatic technique was used and assessed by multiple independent observers. They observed not only that Kyphosis was the most common vertebral column deformity but also that patients with such deformity were found to be more likely to suffer from neurological deficits, more especially if their Cobb angle was above 35 degrees.