Análise dos problemas direto e inverso em um modelo de evolução populacional através de transformações integrais e inferência bayesiana

Modelos de evolução populacional são há muito tempo assunto de grande relevância, principalmente quando a população de estudo é composta por vetores de doenças. Tal importância se deve ao fato de existirem milhares de doenças que são propagadas por espécies específicas e conhecer como tais populações se comportam é vital quando pretende-se criar políticas públicas para controlar a sua proliferação. Este trabalho descreve um problema de evolução populacional difusivo com armadilhas locais e tempo de reprodução atrasado, o problema direto descreve a densidade de uma população uma vez conhecidos os parâmetros do modelo onde sua solução é obtida por meio da técnica de transformada integral generalizada, uma técnica numérico-analítica. Porém a solução do problema direto, por si só, não permite a simulação computacional de uma população em uma aplicação prática, uma vez que os parâmetros do modelo variam de população para população e precisam, portanto, ter seus valores conhecidos. Com o objetivo de possibilitar esta caracterização, o presente trabalho propõe a formulação e solução do problema inverso, estimando os parâmetros do modelo a partir de dados da população utilizando para tal tarefa dois métodos Bayesianos.

Análise do desenvolvimento da extensão universitária no Instituto de Nutrição da UERJ no período 1990-2014

A extensão universitária vem se institucionalizando nas universidades públicas brasileiras. Porém pouco se conhece sobre seu desenvolvimento nas unidades acadêmicas. Este trabalho teve como objeto analisar o desenvolvimento da extensão universitária no Instituto de Nutrição da UERJ (NUT) no período de 1990-2014. Trata-se de estudo historiográfico, baseado em pesquisa bibliográfica e na análise dos documentos coletados em arquivos e registros institucionais da UERJ, complementadas com entrevistas com informantes chave. A análise do material levantado abarcou: sistematização do histórico de institucionalização da extensão na UERJ, caracterização dos projetos desenvolvidos no NUT até 2014 e análise dos projetos ativos no período de 2005 a 2014 com pelo menos cinco anos de atividade. A caracterização dos projetos considerou, entre outros, as categorias: área temática, palavras-chave, abrangência geográfica, parcerias, situação curricular e equipe do projeto. A análise dos projetos se deu por meio da sistematização de seus relatórios e pelo seu cotejamento com as linhas de extensão propostas pelo FORPROEX e com as diretrizes da Política Nacional de Alimentação e Nutrição (PNAN) e da Política Nacional de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional (PNSAN). Nas últimas décadas, houve grandes avanços na institucionalização da extensão na UERJ. De 1990 a 2014, foram identificados 73 projetos de extensão desenvolvidos no NUT. Foi observada ampliação do corpo docente envolvido e da carga horária alocada em atividades extensionistas. Foi notório o crescimento do número de projetos de extensão vigentes a cada ano e do público por eles atingido. O perfil dos projetos de extensão do NUT tem sido voltado, prioritariamente, para as áreas temáticas de saúde e de educação de forma articulada, convergindo com os campos clássicos de atuação da Nutrição e com as vertentes tradicionais da extensão universitária. É amplo o leque de temas abordados nos projetos, destacando-se aqueles ligados ao cuidado em saúde, com ênfase em agravos e grupos populacionais específicos, à promoção da saúde e à educação/ formação. A abrangência geográfica dos projetos se ampliou com o passar dos anos. A maioria deles estabeleceu parcerias, prioritariamente com unidades da área da saúde e com instituições públicas. Somente em uma minoria deles observamos articulação com o currículo de graduação e, em parte deles, relação com pesquisa. A análise dos projetos ativos no período de 2005-2014 indicou que a maioria deles está concentrada nas linhas Saúde Humana, Educação Profissional e Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional e que, no tocante à interface com a PNAN e a PNSAN, os enfoques predominantes se concentram no cuidado nutricional na rede de atenção à saúde, na educação alimentar e nutricional e a na formação continuada. A trajetória da extensão no NUT permite identificar os seguintes desafios para o seu desenvolvimento: avançar na inserção da extensão nos projetos pedagógicos do curso de graduação; traduzir, na prática, o princípio da indissociabilidade ensino-pesquisa-extensão; aprofundar a interface entre a extensão e as políticas públicas; ampliar o escopo de parcerias. Janelas de oportunidade devem ser buscadas e caminhos devem ser percorridos coletivamente no sentido da superação desses desafios na perspectiva de uma prática extensionista que transforme universidade e sociedade.

Muitiobjective pressurized water reactor reload core design by nondominated genetic algorithm search

The design of pressurized water reactor reload cores is not only a formidable optimization problem but also, in many instances, a multiobjective problem. A genetic algorithm (GA) designed to perform true multiobjective optimization on such problems is described. Genetic algorithms simulate natural evolution. They differ from most optimization techniques by searching from one group of solutions to another, rather than from one solution to another. New solutions are generated by breeding from existing solutions. By selecting better (in a multiobjective sense) solutions as parents more often, the population can be evolved to reveal the trade-off surface between the competing objectives. An example illustrating the effectiveness of this novel method is presented and analyzed. It is found that in solving a reload design problem the algorithm evaluates a similar number of loading patterns to other state-of-the-art methods, but in the process reveals much more information about the nature of the problem being solved. The actual computational cost incurred depends: on the core simulator used; the GA itself is code independent.

Turbomachinery computational fluid dynamics: asymptotes and paradigm shifts.

This paper reviews the development of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) specifically for turbomachinery simulations and with a particular focus on application to problems with complex geometry. The review is structured by considering this development as a series of paradigm shifts, followed by asymptotes. The original S1-S2 blade-blade-throughflow model is briefly described, followed by the development of two-dimensional then three-dimensional blade-blade analysis. This in turn evolved from inviscid to viscous analysis and then from steady to unsteady flow simulations. This development trajectory led over a surprisingly small number of years to an accepted approach-a 'CFD orthodoxy'. A very important current area of intense interest and activity in turbomachinery simulation is in accounting for real geometry effects, not just in the secondary air and turbine cooling systems but also associated with the primary path. The requirements here are threefold: capturing and representing these geometries in a computer model; making rapid design changes to these complex geometries; and managing the very large associated computational models on PC clusters. Accordingly, the challenges in the application of the current CFD orthodoxy to complex geometries are described in some detail. The main aim of this paper is to argue that the current CFD orthodoxy is on a new asymptote and is not in fact suited for application to complex geometries and that a paradigm shift must be sought. In particular, the new paradigm must be geometry centric and inherently parallel without serial bottlenecks. The main contribution of this paper is to describe such a potential paradigm shift, inspired by the animation industry, based on a fundamental shift in perspective from explicit to implicit geometry and then illustrate this with a number of applications to turbomachinery.

Attenuation of self-generated tactile sensations is predictive, not postdictive.

When one finger touches the other, the resulting tactile sensation is perceived as weaker than the same stimulus externally imposed. This attenuation of sensation could result from a predictive process that subtracts the expected sensory consequences of the action, or from a postdictive process that alters the perception of sensations that are judged after the event to be self-generated. In this study we observe attenuation even when the fingers unexpectedly fail to make contact, supporting a predictive process. This predictive attenuation of self-generated sensation may have evolved to enhance the perception of sensations with an external cause.

Literature review for a resource characterization of Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge

Through research aimed at understanding the coastal environment, surveys designed to help manage the resource, and national programs to monitor environmental condition, we see a picture of a dynamic ecosystem that is Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR). Currently, there are efforts underway to protect threatened species; monitor fish populations; and quantify the biological, physical, and chemical characteristics of this environment. The potential impacts to this system are just now being understood as ecological responses to human modification are observed and explained. As a starting point, this document compiles existing information about Cape Romain NWR in five topic areas and addresses the potential impacts to the Refuge. This review is intended to serve as a stepping stone to developing a research agenda in support of management of the Refuge. There are various sources of information on which to build a framework for monitoring conditions and detecting change to this environment. For instance, information on basic ecological function in estuarine environments has evolved over several decades. Long-term surveys of Southeast fisheries exist, as well as shellfish and sediment contaminants data from estuaries. Environmental monitoring and biological surveys at the Refuge continue. Recently, studies that examine the impacts to similar coastal habitats have been undertaken. This document puts past studies and ongoing work in context for Refuge managers and researchers. This report recommends that the next phase of this resource characterization focus on: • compiling relevant tabular and spatial data, as identified here, into a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework • assessing the abundance and diversity of fisheries utilizing CRNWR • delineating additional data layers, such as intertidal habitats and subtidal clam beds, from low-level aerial photography, hard copy maps, and other sources • continued inventories of plant and animal species dependent on the Refuge • monitoring physical and chemical environmental parameters using the methodology employed at National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) and other coastal sites, where appropriate • further definition of the potential risks to the Refuge and preparing responses to likely impacts.

Integration of fisheries acoustics surveys and bathymetric mapping to characterize midwater-seafloor habitats of US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico (2008-2010)

NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation program (CRCP) develops coral reef management priorities by bringing together various partners to better understand threats to coral reef ecosystems with the goal of conserving, protecting and restoring these resources. Place-based and ecosystem-based management approaches employed by CRCP require that spatially explicit information about benthic habitats and fish utilization are available to characterize coral reef ecosystems and set conservation priorities. To accomplish this, seafloor habitat mapping of coral reefs around the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) and Puerto Rico has been ongoing since 2004. In 2008, fishery acoustics surveys were added to NOAA survey missions in the USVI and Puerto Rico to assess fish distribution and abundance in relation to benthic habitats in high priority conservation areas. NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) have developed fisheries acoustics survey capabilities onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster to complement the CRCP seafloor habitat mapping effort spearheaded by the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB). The integration of these activities has evolved on the Nancy Foster over the three years summarized in this report. A strategy for improved operations and products has emerged over that time. Not only has the concurrent operation of multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys been beneficial in terms of optimizing ship time and resources, this joint effort has advanced an integrated approach to characterizing bottom and mid-water habitats and the fishes associated with them. CCMA conducts multibeam surveys to systematically map and characterize coral reef ecosystems, resulting in products such as high resolution bathymetric maps, backscatter information, and benthic habitat classification maps. These products focus on benthic features and live bottom habitats associated with them. NCCOS Centers (the Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research) characterize coral reef ecosystems by using fisheries acoustics methods to capture biological information through the entire water column. Spatially-explicit information on marine resources derived from fisheries acoustics surveys, such as maps of fish density, supports marine spatial planning strategies and decision making by providing a biological metric for evaluating coral reef ecosystems and assessing impacts from pollution, fishing pressure, and climate change. Data from fisheries acoustics surveys address management needs by providing a measure of biomass in management areas, detecting spatial and temporal responses in distribution relative to natural and anthropogenic impacts, and identifying hotspots that support high fish abundance or fish aggregations. Fisheries acoustics surveys conducted alongside multibeam mapping efforts inherently couple water column data with information on benthic habitats and provide information on the heterogeneity of both benthic habitats and biota in the water column. Building on this information serves to inform resource managers regarding how fishes are organized around habitat structure and the scale at which these relationships are important. Where resource managers require place-based assessments regarding the location of critical habitats along with high abundances of fish, concurrent multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys serve as an important tool for characterizing and prioritizing coral reef ecosystems. This report summarizes the evolution of fisheries acoustics surveys onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster from 2008 to 2010, in conjunction with multibeam data collection, aimed at characterizing benthic and mid-water habitats in high priority conservation areas around the USVI and Puerto Rico. It also serves as a resource for the continued development of consistent data products derived from acoustic surveys. By focusing on the activities of 2010, this report highlights the progress made to date and illustrates the potential application of fisheries data derived from acoustic surveys to the management of coral reef ecosystems.

Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Physiological ecology of juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at the southern end of their distribution, the San Francisco Estuary and Gulf of the Farallones, California

Juvenile chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, from natal streams in California’s Central Valley demonstrated little estuarine dependency but grew rapidly once in coastal waters. We collected juvenile chinook salmon at locations spanning the San Francisco Estuary from the western side of the freshwater delta—at the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers—to the estuary exit at the Golden Gate and in the coastal waters of the Gulf of the Farallones. Juveniles spent about 40 d migrating through the estuary at an estimated rate of 1.6 km/d or faster during their migration season (May and June 1997) toward the ocean. Mean growth in length (0.18 mm/d) and weight (0.02 g/d) was insignificant in young chinook salmon while in the estuary, but estimated daily growth of 0.6 mm/d and 0.5 g/d in the ocean was rapid (P≤0.001). Condition (K factor) declined in the estuary, but improved markedly in ocean fish. Total body protein, total lipid, triacylglycerols (TAG), polar lipids, cholesterol, and nonesterified fatty acids concentrations did not change in juveniles in the estuary, but total lipid and TAG were depleted in ocean juveniles. As young chinook migrated from freshwater to the ocean, their prey changed progressively in importance from invertebrates to fish larvae. Once in coastal waters, juvenile salmon appear to employ a strategy of rapid growth at the expense of energy reserves to increase survival potential. In 1997, environmental conditions did not impede development: freshwater discharge was above average and water temperatures were only slightly elevated, within the species’ tolerance. Data suggest that chinook salmon from California’s Central Valley have evolved a strong ecological propensity for a ocean-type life history. But unlike populations in the Pacific Northwest, they show little estuarine dependency and proceed to the ocean to benefit from the upwelling-driven, biologically productive coastal waters.

Vertical and horizontal movements of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Great Australian Bight observed with ultrasonic telemetry

The vertical and horizontal movements of southern bluefin tuna (SBT), Thunnus maccoyii, in the Great Australian Bight were investigated by ultrasonic telemetry. Between 1992 and 1994, sixteen tuna were tracked for up to 49 h with depth or combined temperature-depth transmitting tags. The average swimming speeds (measured over the ground) over entire tracks ranged from 0.5 to 1.4 m/s or 0.5 to 1.4 body lengths/s. The highest sustained swimming speed recorded was 2.5 m/s for 18 hours. Horizontal movements were often associated with topographical features such as lumps, reefs, islands and the shelf break. They spent long periods of time at the surface during the day (nearly 30%), which would facilitate abundance estimation by aerial survey. At night, they tended to remain just below the surface, but many remained in the upper 10 m throughout the night. SBT were often observed at the thermocline interface or at the surface while travelling. A characteristic feature of many tracks was sudden dives before dawn and after sunset during twilight, followed by a gradual return to their original depth. It is suggested that this is a behavior evolved to locate the scattering layer and its associated prey when SBT are in waters of sufficient depth. SBT maintained a difference between stomach and ambient temperature of up to 9°C.

Late Holocene environmental variability in the upper San Francisco Estuary as reconstructed from tidal marsh sediments

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tidal marsh sediments collected from Browns Island in the lower Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, California, are used to reconstruct environmental variability over the past 6.8 ka. Calibrated radiocarbon dates provide chronostratigraphic control. Trace metal analyses, grain-size variability, organic content, and macrofossils are used to define short- and long-term variations in relative salinity and inundation frequency. Aggradation began in subtidal fresh water conditions about 6.8 ka. Subtidal aggradation of clayey silts continued until about 6.3 ka, when conditions shifted toward a lower intertidal brackish marsh environment. By 5.1 ka, a brackish marsh plain had evolved, with surface water freshening after 4.1 ka. Conditions returned to brackish similar to the present after 2.3 ka.

A study on the trend of sports fishery of Mafia Island (Tanzania) along the East African coast from 1961-1972

Mafia waters in the western Indian Ocean on the east coast of Africa is a natural attractive area for fishing. It has extensive coral beds which harbour good fish life and attracts sport fishery in the area. About 12 commercially important fishes listed are caught by sports fishermen. The data indicates that this area can become an attractive centre for sports fishery almost throughout the year with peak season from November to February. Long-term planning of the fishery is necessary. The conservation measures should be evolved and gan fishing, dynamiting or any other kind of distructive fishing should be prohibited. This area has natural potential to become a sports fishing centre in the future and a great attraction for tourists and anglers.

Hermaphroditism in some marine animals

Hermaphroditism, a phenomenon in which one and the same individual produces sperms, the male gamate the ovum, the female gamate, is generally common in plants and lower animals and hence is considered as a primitive character. However, it is rare in higher invertebrates such as insects, spiders, prawns and also in the lower vertebrates to which fishes belong. Prawns and fishes have highly evolved reproductive systems and occur as separate individuals of males and females. Both these groups do have some species which are regurarly hermaphrodites and others which are teratologically hermaphrodites.

Some observations on the problem of marine timber destroying organisms of Indian coasts

In India the chief marine timber boring organisms are 2 species of Martesia, 28 species of shipworms, 4 species and a variety of Sphaeroma and 9 species of Limnoria besides bacteria and fungi. The occurrence, abundance and activity of the various species of borers show remarkable variations and fluctuations in the different harbours of India, each harbour or area having its own dominant set of species and an assemblage of less important forms. These species have their own characteristic preferences, life history and seasons of attachment and a scheme evolved for one locality may prove ineffective for another. Through a delicate and complex ecological adjustment the borers occurring in a locality have reached an interrelationship reducing interspecific and intraspecific competition. The seasons of settlement of the dominant borers in the different harbours of India are indicated. The need for a detailed biological enquiry is stressed.

Engineering design and mechatronics: The schemebuilder project

The paper describes the development of a software design aid for use at the conceptual stage of engineering design. It is intended for use in the design of mechatronic products but has wider potential uses. Early approaches were based on function structures and tables of options and the system that evolved allows the assembly of schemes linked by matching their input and output ports. A database of components is provided which can be accessed via different indexes and the designer can easily create and compare alternative schemes at the concept stage. A bond graph approach is used to define the interconnections between components. This allows correct port matching but also provides for future development such as constraint propagation through the design and links to simulation tools. © 1993 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.