Watershed monitoring and the TMDL modeling to assess bacterial loading in estuarine environments to improve management

Shellfish bed closures along the North Carolina coast have increased over the years seemingly concurrent with increases in population (Mallin 2000). More and faster flowing storm water has come to mean more bacteria, and fecal indicator bacterial (FIB) standards for shellfish harvesting are often exceeded when no source of contamination is readily apparent (Kator and Rhodes, 1994). Could management reduce bacterial loads if the source of the bacteria where known? Several potentially useful methods for differentiating human versus animal pollution sources have emerged including Ribotyping and Multiple Antibiotic Resistance (MAR) (US EPA, 2005). Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) studies on bacterial sources have been conducted for streams in NC mountain and Piedmont areas (U.S. EPA, 1991 and 2005) and are likely to be mandated for coastal waters. TMDL analysis estimates allowable pollutant loads and allocates them to known sources so management actions may be taken to restore water to its intended uses (U.S. EPA, 1991 and 2005). This project sought first to quantify and compare fecal contamination levels for three different types of land use on the coast, and second, to apply MAR and ribotyping techniques and assess their effectiveness for indentifying bacterial sources. Third, results from these studies would be applied to one watershed to develop a case study coastal TMDL. All three watershed study areas are within Carteret County, North Carolina. Jumping Run Creek and Pettiford Creek are within the White Oak River Basin management unit whereas the South River falls within the Neuse River Basin. Jumping Run Creek watershed encompasses approximately 320 ha. Its watershed was a dense, coastal pocosin on sandy, relic dune ridges, but current land uses are primarily medium density residential. Pettiford Creek is in the Croatan National Forest, is 1133 ha. and is basically undeveloped. The third study area is on Open Grounds Farm in the South River watershed. Half of the 630 ha. watershed is under cultivation with most under active water control (flashboard risers). The remaining portion is forested silviculture.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

The short-timescale behavior of glacial ice

Glaciers are often assumed to deform only at slow (i.e., glacial) rates. However, with the advent of high rate geodetic observations of ice motion, many of the intricacies of glacial deformation on hourly and daily timescales have been observed and quantified. This thesis explores two such short timescale processes: the tidal perturbation of ice stream motion and the catastrophic drainage of supraglacial meltwater lakes. Our investigation into the transmission length-scale of a tidal load represents the first study to explore the daily tidal influence on ice stream motion using three-dimensional models. Our results demonstrate both that the implicit assumptions made in the standard two-dimensional flow-line models are inherently incorrect for many ice streams, and that the anomalously large spatial extent of the tidal influence seen on the motion of some glaciers cannot be explained, as previously thought, through the elastic or viscoelastic transmission of tidal loads through the bulk of the ice stream. We then discuss how the phase delay between a tidal forcing and the ice stream’s displacement response can be used to constrain in situ viscoelastic properties of glacial ice. Lastly, for the problem of supraglacial lake drainage, we present a methodology for implementing linear viscoelasticity into an existing model for lake drainage. Our work finds that viscoelasticity is a second-order effect when trying to model the deformation of ice in response to a meltwater lake draining to a glacier’s bed. The research in this thesis demonstrates that the first-order understanding of the short-timescale behavior of naturally occurring ice is incomplete, and works towards improving our fundamental understanding of ice behavior over the range of hours to days.

Wassertemperaturen und Häufigkeiten von Mißbildungen pelagischer Fischembryonen

Malformation rates in fish embryos have been monitored for several years in the Southern North Sea. Their occurrence was interpreted to be related to pollution because malformation rates were highest in near coastal waters known to receive high pollution loads. For embryos of all species investigated synchronous trends for the fluctuation of malformation rates over the time were registered in the areas covered with intermediate prevalences at the beginning of the studies in 1984 and maxima in 1987. Thereafter malformation rates of all species decreased significantly followed by an increase in 1996. It was found that a significant negative correlation between surface water temperature and prevalences of malformed embryos of dab (Limanda limanda) and other species existed over time and space. These correlations became increasingly visible with decreasing concentrations of organochlorines in livers of dab. From these findings it is concluded that temperatures possibly predispose developing fish embryos to the impact of pollutants.

The steady-state response of multidegree-of-freedom systems with a spatially localized nonlinearity

This thesis is concerned with the dynamic response of a General multidegree-of-freedom linear system with a one dimensional nonlinear constraint attached between two points. The nonlinear constraint is assumed to consist of rate-independent conservative and hysteretic nonlinearities and may contain a viscous dissipation element. The dynamic equations for general spatial and temporal load distributions are derived for both continuous and discrete systems. The method of equivalent linearization is used to develop equations which govern the approximate steady-state response to generally distributed loads with harmonic time dependence.

The qualitative response behavior of a class of undamped chainlike structures with a nonlinear terminal constraint is investigated. It is shown that the hardening or softening behavior of every resonance curve is similar and is determined by the properties of the constraint. Also examined are the number and location of resonance curves, the boundedness of the forced response, the loci of response extrema, and other characteristics of the response. Particular consideration is given to the dependence of the response characteristics on the properties of the linear system, the nonlinear constraint, and the load distribution.

Numerical examples of the approximate steady-state response of three structural systems are presented. These examples illustrate the application of the formulation and qualitative theory. It is shown that disconnected response curves and response curves which cross are obtained for base excitation of a uniform shear beam with a cubic spring foundation. Disconnected response curves are also obtained for the steady-state response to a concentrated load of a chainlike structure with a hardening hysteretic constraint. The accuracy of the approximate response curves is investigated.

On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Optimal design of building structures using genetic algorithms

A general framework for multi-criteria optimal design is presented which is well-suited for automated design of structural systems. A systematic computer-aided optimal design decision process is developed which allows the designer to rapidly evaluate and improve a proposed design by taking into account the major factors of interest related to different aspects such as design, construction, and operation.

The proposed optimal design process requires the selection of the most promising choice of design parameters taken from a large design space, based on an evaluation using specified criteria. The design parameters specify a particular design, and so they relate to member sizes, structural configuration, etc. The evaluation of the design uses performance parameters which may include structural response parameters, risks due to uncertain loads and modeling errors, construction and operating costs, etc. Preference functions are used to implement the design criteria in a "soft" form. These preference functions give a measure of the degree of satisfaction of each design criterion. The overall evaluation measure for a design is built up from the individual measures for each criterion through a preference combination rule. The goal of the optimal design process is to obtain a design that has the highest overall evaluation measure - an optimization problem.

Genetic algorithms are stochastic optimization methods that are based on evolutionary theory. They provide the exploration power necessary to explore high-dimensional search spaces to seek these optimal solutions. Two special genetic algorithms, hGA and vGA, are presented here for continuous and discrete optimization problems, respectively.

The methodology is demonstrated with several examples involving the design of truss and frame systems. These examples are solved by using the proposed hGA and vGA.

Experimental Investigation of Thrust Fault Rupture Mechanics

Thrust fault earthquakes are investigated in the laboratory by generating dynamic shear ruptures along pre-existing frictional faults in rectangular plates. A considerable body of evidence suggests that dip-slip earthquakes exhibit enhanced ground motions in the acute hanging wall wedge as an outcome of broken symmetry between hanging and foot wall plates with respect to the earth surface. To understand the physical behavior of thrust fault earthquakes, particularly ground motions near the earth surface, ruptures are nucleated in analog laboratory experiments and guided up-dip towards the simulated earth surface. The transient slip event and emitted radiation mimic a natural thrust earthquake. High-speed photography and laser velocimeters capture the rupture evolution, outputting a full-field view of photo-elastic fringe contours proportional to maximum shearing stresses as well as continuous ground motion velocity records at discrete points on the specimen. Earth surface-normal measurements validate selective enhancement of hanging wall ground motions for both sub-Rayleigh and super-shear rupture speeds. The earth surface breaks upon rupture tip arrival to the fault trace, generating prominent Rayleigh surface waves. A rupture wave is sensed in the hanging wall but is, however, absent from the foot wall plate: a direct consequence of proximity from fault to seismometer. Signatures in earth surface-normal records attenuate with distance from the fault trace. Super-shear earthquakes feature greater amplitudes of ground shaking profiles, as expected from the increased tectonic pressures required to induce super-shear transition. Paired stations measure fault parallel and fault normal ground motions at various depths, which yield slip and opening rates through direct subtraction of like components. Peak fault slip and opening rates associated with the rupture tip increase with proximity to the fault trace, a result of selective ground motion amplification in the hanging wall. Fault opening rates indicate that the hanging and foot walls detach near the earth surface, a phenomenon promoted by a decrease in magnitude of far-field tectonic loads. Subsequent shutting of the fault sends an opening pulse back down-dip. In case of a sub-Rayleigh earthquake, feedback from the reflected S wave re-ruptures the locked fault at super-shear speeds, providing another mechanism of super-shear transition.

Edge function method applied to thin plates resting on Winkler foundation

The Edge Function method formerly developed by Quinlan⁽²⁵⁾ is applied to solve the problem of thin elastic plates resting on spring supported foundations subjected to lateral loads the method can be applied to plates of any convex polygonal shapes, however, since most plates are rectangular in shape, this specific class is investigated in this thesis. The method discussed can also be applied easily to other kinds of foundation models (e.g. springs connected to each other by a membrane) as long as the resulting differential equation is linear. In chapter VII, solution of a specific problem is compared with a known solution from literature. In chapter VIII, further comparisons are given. The problems of concentrated load on an edge and later on a corner of a plate as long as they are far away from other boundaries are also given in the chapter and generalized to other loading intensities and/or plates springs constants for Poisson's ratio equal to 0.2

Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK

21 p.

High-strain composites and dual-matrix composite structures

Most space applications require deployable structures due to the limiting size of current launch vehicles. Specifically, payloads in nanosatellites such as CubeSats require very high compaction ratios due to the very limited space available in this typo of platform. Strain-energy-storing deployable structures can be suitable for these applications, but the curvature to which these structures can be folded is limited to the elastic range. Thanks to fiber microbuckling, high-strain composite materials can be folded into much higher curvatures without showing significant damage, which makes them suitable for very high compaction deployable structure applications. However, in applications that require carrying loads in compression, fiber microbuckling also dominates the strength of the material. A good understanding of the strength in compression of high-strain composites is then needed to determine how suitable they are for this type of application.

The goal of this thesis is to investigate, experimentally and numerically, the microbuckling in compression of high-strain composites. Particularly, the behavior in compression of unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced silicone rods (CFRS) is studied. Experimental testing of the compression failure of CFRS rods showed a higher strength in compression than the strength estimated by analytical models, which is unusual in standard polymer composites. This effect, first discovered in the present research, was attributed to the variation in random carbon fiber angles respect to the nominal direction. This is an important effect, as it implies that microbuckling strength might be increased by controlling the fiber angles. With a higher microbuckling strength, high-strain materials could carry loads in compression without reaching microbuckling and therefore be suitable for several space applications.

A finite element model was developed to predict the homogenized stiffness of the CFRS, and the homogenization results were used in another finite element model that simulated a homogenized rod under axial compression. A statistical representation of the fiber angles was implemented in the model. The presence of fiber angles increased the longitudinal shear stiffness of the material, resulting in a higher strength in compression. The simulations showed a large increase of the strength in compression for lower values of the standard deviation of the fiber angle, and a slight decrease of strength in compression for lower values of the mean fiber angle. The strength observed in the experiments was achieved with the minimum local angle standard deviation observed in the CFRS rods, whereas the shear stiffness measured in torsion tests was achieved with the overall fiber angle distribution observed in the CFRS rods.

High strain composites exhibit good bending capabilities, but they tend to be soft out-of-plane. To achieve a higher out-of-plane stiffness, the concept of dual-matrix composites is introduced. Dual-matrix composites are foldable composites which are soft in the crease regions and stiff elsewhere. Previous attempts to fabricate continuous dual-matrix fiber composite shells had limited performance due to excessive resin flow and matrix mixing. An alternative method, presented in this thesis uses UV-cure silicone and fiberglass to avoid these problems. Preliminary experiments on the effect of folding on the out-of-plane stiffness are presented. An application to a conical log-periodic antenna for CubeSats is proposed, using origami-inspired stowing schemes, that allow a conical dual-matrix composite shell to reach very high compaction ratios.

Estudio comparativo de diferentes soluciones de fachada y cubierta para un edificio residencial

[ES]En el proyecto se analizan diferentes soluciones de fachada y cubierta de un edificio residencial, buscando la eficiencia energética y la economía. Para ello, partiendo de un caso concreto, se estudian las cargas térmicas del edificio existente y de otras dos soluciones posibles. En estas además, se utilizan materiales sostenibles, con el fin de hacer el menor impacto medioambiental posible. Se ha analizado también la rentabilidad de estas soluciones, para comprobar cuál es la más adecuada desde un punto de vista económico.

Propuesta de catálogo para la selección de rodamientos de vuelco en aplicaciones cuasiestáticas

[ES]La propuesta de catálogo realizada en este proyecto, cuyo objetivo es convertirse en el catálogo de la empresa de rodamientos Iraundi S.A., constará de dos partes. La primera de ellas será una parte teórica e informativa que incluirá toda la información necesaria sobre la manipulación, montaje, mantenimiento y selección del tipo de rodamiento. Para ello se ha recabado información tanto del propio catálogo de Iraundi S.A., como de varios de los fabricantes de rodamientos más importantes del momento, como son INA, GOIMO, ROTHE-ERDE, y SKF. La segunda parte del catálogo lo formaran las tablas y gráficas de selección de rodamiento. Estas gráficas han sido renovadas con respecto al catálogo existente, y se ha tratado de conseguir unas gráficas que sean fáciles de interpretar, y que de manera sencilla se puedan obtener los tamaños y tipos de rodamiento adecuados, dependiendo de la aplicación de funcionamiento y de las fuerzas radiales, axiales y de momento que estos vayan a soportar. Éstas gráficas han sido calculadas exclusivamente para este proyecto, y validadas mediante la aplicación de elementos finitos, de los que finalmente se han obtenido unas gráficas que simplifican la selección óptima del rodamiento, y que tienen en cuenta el esfuerzo axial, radial, y momento que soportará el rodamiento, así como las fuerzas que serán capaces de soportar los tornillos empleados para el anclaje.

SCARA motako robot industrialaren simulazio birtuala eta interakzioa

[EU]Gradu amaierako lan honetan, Industria Ingenieritza graduan zehar emandako zenbait irakasgaietan landutako kontzeptuak oinarri bezala hartuta SCARA robot industrialaren analisia egin da. Lau askatasun gradu dituzten robot hauek oso erabiliak dira industrian beraien lan ziklo azkar, karga handiak jasateko kapazitate, errepikortasun eta aplikazio ugariengatik. Proiektua, bi zati nagusitan banandu da: SCARA motako robot baten analisi zinematikoa, robotaren irudikapena eta ibilbideen sorkuntza Matlab programa erabiliz. Adept Cobra e-Vario 600, SCARA motako prototipo errealarekin interakzioa. Proiektuan zehar garatuko diren edukien egitura ondorengoa izango da: Lehenik eta behin, proiektuko lehen atalean proiektua kokatuta dagoen testuinguruaren azalpena emango da, baita ere testuinguru horrek gaur egun, sail desberdinetan, duen garrantzia. Proiektuko bigarren atalean, lana egiterakoan proposatu diren helburuak eta proiektuak eskaintzen dituen onurak adieraziko dira. Bestetik, proiektuko hirugarren atalean, gaiaren egoeran, SCARA robotera heldu arte robotek historian zehar izan duten garapena eta hauen sailkapen desberdinak azalduko dira. Laugarren atalean, metodologian, proiektu honetan garatuko diren bi zati nagusien deskribapen zehatza emango da. Azkenik, proiektuko azken atalean, lana burutzeko bete behar izan diren ataza bakoitzaren deskribapena eta iraupena, aurrekontua, arriskuen analisia eta proiektu honetatik atera ditugun ondorioak ematen dira.

Speculation-Aware Resource Allocation for Cluster Schedulers

Real-time demand response is essential for handling the uncertainties of renewable generation. Traditionally, demand response has been focused on large industrial and commercial loads, however it is expected that a large number of small residential loads such as air conditioners, dish washers, and electric vehicles will also participate in the coming years. The electricity consumption of these smaller loads, which we call deferrable loads, can be shifted over time, and thus be used (in aggregate) to compensate for the random fluctuations in renewable generation.

In this thesis, we propose a real-time distributed deferrable load control algorithm to reduce the variance of aggregate load (load minus renewable generation) by shifting the power consumption of deferrable loads to periods with high renewable generation. The algorithm is model predictive in nature, i.e., at every time step, the algorithm minimizes the expected variance to go with updated predictions. We prove that suboptimality of this model predictive algorithm vanishes as time horizon expands in the average case analysis. Further, we prove strong concentration results on the distribution of the load variance obtained by model predictive deferrable load control. These concentration results highlight that the typical performance of model predictive deferrable load control is tightly concentrated around the average-case performance. Finally, we evaluate the algorithm via trace-based simulations.