Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia

At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.

Thermal profile of a near-adiabatic compression process in a cylindrical tube and establishment of critical control elements for repeatable process control

The compressed gas industry and government agencies worldwide utilize "adiabatic compression" testing for qualifying high-pressure valves, regulators, and other related flow control equipment for gaseous oxygen service. This test methodology is known by various terms including adiabatic compression testing, gaseous fluid impact testing, pneumatic impact testing, and BAM testing as the most common terms. The test methodology will be described in greater detail throughout this document but in summary it consists of pressurizing a test article (valve, regulator, etc.) with gaseous oxygen within 15 to 20 milliseconds (ms). Because the driven gas1 and the driving gas2 are rapidly compressed to the final test pressure at the inlet of the test article, they are rapidly heated by the sudden increase in pressure to sufficient temperatures (thermal energies) to sometimes result in ignition of the nonmetallic materials (seals and seats) used within the test article. In general, the more rapid the compression process the more "adiabatic" the pressure surge is presumed to be and the more like an isentropic process the pressure surge has been argued to simulate. Generally speaking, adiabatic compression is widely considered the most efficient ignition mechanism for directly kindling a nonmetallic material in gaseous oxygen and has been implicated in many fire investigations. Because of the ease of ignition of many nonmetallic materials by this heating mechanism, many industry standards prescribe this testing. However, the results between various laboratories conducting the testing have not always been consistent. Research into the test method indicated that the thermal profile achieved (i.e., temperature/time history of the gas) during adiabatic compression testing as required by the prevailing industry standards has not been fully modeled or empirically verified, although attempts have been made. This research evaluated the following questions: 1) Can the rapid compression process required by the industry standards be thermodynamically and fluid dynamically modeled so that predictions of the thermal profiles be made, 2) Can the thermal profiles produced by the rapid compression process be measured in order to validate the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic models; and, estimate the severity of the test, and, 3) Can controlling parameters be recommended so that new guidelines may be established for the industry standards to resolve inconsistencies between various test laboratories conducting tests according to the present standards?

Active ageing : developing a quantitative multi-dimensional measure

With estimates that two billion of the world’s population will be 65 years or older by 2050, ensuring that older people ‘age well’ is an international priority. To date, however, there is significant disagreement and debate about how to define and measure ‘ageing well’, with no consensus on either terminology or measurement. Thus, this chapter describes the research rationale, methodology and findings of the Australian Active Ageing Study (Triple A Study), which surveyed 2620 older Australians to identify significant contributions to quality of life for older people: work, learning, social participation, spirituality, emotional wellbeing, health, and life events. Exploratory factor analyses identified eight distinct elements (grouped into four key concepts) which appear to define ‘active ageing’ and explained 55% of the variance: social and life participation (25%), emotional health (22%), physical health and functioning (4%) and security (4%). These findings highlight the importance of understanding and supporting the social and emotional dimensions of ageing, as issues of social relationships, life engagement and emotional health dominated the factor structure. Our intension is that this paper will prompt informed debate and discussion on defining and measuring active ageing, facilitating exploration and understanding of the complexity of issues that intertwine, converge and enhance the ageing experience.

Practice and Procedure. Self-executing order - construction - whether further judicial at required for self-executing order to take effect

In Mango Boulevard Pty Ltd v Spencer [2010] QCA 207, a self-executing order had been made in consequence of continuing default by parties to the proceedings in meeting their disclosure obligations. The case involved several questions about the construction and implications of the self-executing order. This note focuses on the aspects of the case relating to that order.

Exceptional teachers for disadvantaged schools

This article reports on the first year of the Exceptional Teachers for Disadvantaged Schools project, a teacher education approach designed to prepare high quality teachers for low socio-economic schools. The Exceptional Teachers for Disadvantaged Schools (ETDS) project is an innovative way to prepare high-quality teachers for employment in low-SES schools. The program, based at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), offers a specialised curriculum, designed to equip high-achieving pre-service teachers for work in the schools that need them most. Selected pre-service teachers at QUT are invited to take part in the trial course, based on their academic performance over the first two years of their four-year Bachelor of Education degree, and on a demonstrated commitment to social justice. These participants undertake a modified version of QUT's B Ed on-campus curriculum. They have their practicum/field experience at one of a range of disadvantaged schools throughout Queensland which have agreed to partner with QUT in the program. In the past, teacher education for disadvantaged schools has been described as applying a 'missionary' or deficit model (Larabee, 2010; Comber and Kamler, 2004; Flessa, 2007). The principals of schools participating in the ETDS react strongly against such an approach, and have explicitly asked project staff not to send them anyone who 'thinks they can save the world'. The ETDS project has moved well away from such a model, towards a position that is explicitly centred on notions of academic excellence. The project is now at the end of its first trial year.

A Bayesian approach for estimating detection times in horses : exploring the pharmacokinetics of a urinary acepromazine metabolite

We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. Acepromazine (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance ($Cl/F_{PM}$) and volume of distribution ($V/F_{PM}$), scaled by the fraction of parent converted to metabolite, were estimated as 769 L/h and 6874 L, respectively. For a typical horse in the study, after receiving 30 mg of ACP, the upper limit of the detection time was 35 hours in plasma and 100 hours in urine, assuming an arbitrary limit of detection of 1 $\mu$g/L, and a small ($\approx 0.01$) probability of detection. The model derived allowed the probability of detection to be estimated at the population level. This analysis was conducted on data collected from only 12 horses, but we assume that this is representative of the wider population.

Planning most-likely paths from overhead imagery

This paper is about planning paths from overhead imagery, the novelty of which is taking explicit account of uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variation in terrain cost. The image is first classified using a multi-class Gaussian Process Classifier which provides probabilities of class membership at each location in the image. The probability of class membership at a particular grid location is then combined with a terrain cost evaluated at that location using a spatial Gaussian process. The resulting cost function is, in turn, passed to a planner. This allows both the uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variations in terrain costs to be incorporated into the planned path. Because the cost of traversing a grid cell is now a probability density rather than a single scalar value, we can produce not only the most-likely shortest path between points on the map, but also sample from the cost map to produce a distribution of paths between the points. Results are shown in the form of planned paths over aerial maps, these paths are shown to vary in response to local variations in terrain cost.

Drawn to abstraction

Three paintings exploring and testing the area of abstraction through gesture, colour and canvas structures. The paintings interrogate how abstraction can, through affect and sensation as well as historical reference, construct meaning.

Employer's management of part-time student labour

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DMO governance : reflections from a former marketing team

The paper provides an academic/practitioner collaborative reflection on the governance structure of a prominent New Zealand regional tourism organisation (RTO). The purpose is to address one of the neglected areas of tourism governance research; which is ‘Who’ governs the destination? The paper discusses the evolution of a public-private governance structure from the perspective of three former senior staff members. The authors were employed during a period of radical organisational change in the administration of the marketing of Rotorua, one of New Zealand’s leading resort destinations. The paper uses archival analysis and personal reflections, and concludes with a summary of key challenges and frustrations inherent in the complexity of public-private partnership (PPP) governance of an RTO. It is envisaged this summary of reflections will enhance tourism management students’ understanding of the complex and political nature of destination marketing organisation (DMO) governance at a local level.

Exploring ways to better manage substance abuse issues

- Historically by default we have created an operational environment where the key AOD issue has been testing and not safety, behaviour and culture. - The tail wagging the dog. - We risk loosing the point the point. - Many people traditionally want to hear a paper about, testing, technology or the pros and cons of saliva VS urine testing etc . - This is a good example of how the workplace alcohol and other drugs area has been politicised, commercialised, simplified and myopic.

The legal framework for Australia's carbon pricing mechanism : a critique

As part of the Australian Government’s Clean Energy Plan, the Government has attempted to harness the legal innovation of the tradeable emissions unit, within a capped carbon trading system, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Such an approach promises to send a price signal to the market which will influence emitting behaviours and reduce our emissions in a cost-effective manner. However, if the carbon trading scheme is to successfully achieve cost-effective emissions reductions then the carbon market must be supported by an appropriate legal framework. This paper will consider the key features of the Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism, including the Carbon Farming Initiative, and critique whether it has all the hallmarks of an effective legal framework to reduce Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions. The likely future of the trading scheme, following the 2013 elections, will also be addressed.

Book review : "Carbon Capture and Storage Emerging Legal and Regulatory Issues" edited by Ian Havercroft, Richard Macrory, Richard B Stewart, Oxford, Hart Publishing, 2011

As the international community struggles to find a cost-effective solution to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a project mechanism with the potential to assist in transitioning society towards its low carbon future. Being a politically attractive option, legal regimes to promote and approve CCS have proceeded at an accelerated pace in multiple jurisdictions including the European Union and Australia. This acceleration and emphasis on the swift commercial deployment of CCS projects has left the legal community in the undesirable position of having to advise on the strengths and weaknesses of the key features of these regimes once they have been passed and become operational. This is an area where environmental law principles are tested to their very limit. On the one hand, implementation of this new technology should proceed in a precautionary manner to avoid adverse impacts on the atmosphere, local community and broader environment. On the other hand, excessive regulatory restrictions will stifle innovation and act as a barrier to the swift deployment of CCS projects around the world. Finding the balance between precaution and innovation is no easy feat. This is an area where lawyers, academics, regulators and industry representatives can benefit from the sharing of collective experiences, both positive and negative, across the jurisdictions. This exemplary book appears to have been collated with this philosophy in mind and provides an insightful addition to the global dialogue on establishing effective national and international regimes for the implementation of CCS projects...

Three carrier ambiguity resolution : distance-independent performance demonstrated using semi-generated triple frequency GPS signals

In spite of significant research in the development of efficient algorithms for three carrier ambiguity resolution, full performance potential of the additional frequency signals cannot be demonstrated effectively without actual triple frequency data. In addition, all the proposed algorithms showed their difficulties in reliable resolution of the medium-lane and narrow-lane ambiguities in different long-range scenarios. In this contribution, we will investigate the effects of various distance-dependent biases, identifying the tropospheric delay to be the key limitation for long-range three carrier ambiguity resolution. In order to achieve reliable ambiguity resolution in regional networks with the inter-station distances of hundreds of kilometers, a new geometry-free and ionosphere-free model is proposed to fix the integer ambiguities of the medium-lane or narrow-lane observables over just several minutes without distance constraint. Finally, the semi-simulation method is introduced to generate the third frequency signals from dual-frequency GPS data and experimentally demonstrate the research findings of this paper.

Murray-Darling basin governance : the focus of the law

The legal arrangements for the management of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia have changed significantly over the years. The Constitution of the Commonwealth has led to the legal arrangements for the management of the Murray-Darling Basin. The Water Act 2000 of Queensland aimed at advancing sustainable management and efficient use of water and other resources by establishing a system for the planning, allocation and use of water. The Water Management Act 2000 of New South Wales ensures the sustainable and integrated management of the water resources of the state benefiting the present and future generations. The Natural Resources Management Act 2004 of South Australia applies to water resources and to other natural resources. The Act aimed at assisting the achievement of ecologically sustainable development in the state.