Uso del suolo e accessi in stazione: un’analisi di regressione multipla per la rete metropolitana di Napoli

Obiettivo dello studio è l’esame delle relazioni esistenti tra il numero di accessi alle stazioni della metropolitana e le caratteristiche di uso del suolo di ciascuna area di influenza. A questo scopo è stata implementata un’analisi di regressione lineare multipla, utilizzando come variabile indipendente il numero di viaggiatori in ingresso alle stazioni e come variabili dipendenti le caratteristiche socio-economiche e di uso del suolo delle aree urbane che circondano le stazioni. L’utilizzo di tecniche GIS ha permesso la costruzione del database e la visualizzazione su mappe tematiche dei risultati. In sintesi dallo studio emerge che il flusso di passeggeri è influenzato in misura prevalente dall’indice di connessione nelle aree centrali, dalla densità di addetti nelle aree periferiche e dalla densità residenziale e dal mix funzionale nelle aree di stazione suburbane. I risultati di questo studio possono contribuire al processo decisionale ed alla definizione di strategie di Transit Oriented Development al fine di incrementare l’utilizzo della rete su ferro o viceversa possono essere utilizzati per la valutazione di pratiche di uso del suolo.

Cohousing di pianura. Ripensare l’abitare in chiave solidale e a zero consumo di suolo

Le riflessioni che seguono intendono offrire un contributo al dibattito sulle nuove forme di abitare intese principalmente come attitudini relazionali che, nel loro prendere forma, producono spazi dando voce quella vocazione comunitaria sempre più diffusa nella nostra società contemporanea. L’occasione di seguire da vicino il processo di trasformazione di un Gruppo di Acquisto Solidale (Gas), costituito per iniziativa di alcuni cittadini ferraresi, in un gruppo di aspiranti cohousers, seguendone le fasi di apprendimento collettivo, di dialogo con le istituzioni locali e con i diversi attori che progressivamente entrano in gioco, si inserisce in una più vasta ricerca, da tempo portata avanti da chi scrive, sulla natura delle politiche pubbliche per la città e per il territorio, con particolare riguardo a contesti relativamente marginali di cui la regione del Delta del Po può essere considerata una concreta espressione.

The role of Di-iron proteins in pathogen resistance

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D. degree in Biochemistry

THE U.S. and European M&A cycles: A Markov switching and state space approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit cycle identification: A Markov-switching application

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

Modeling sequencing errors by combining Hidden Markov models.

Among the largest resources for biological sequence data is the large amount of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) available in public and proprietary databases. ESTs provide information on transcripts but for technical reasons they often contain sequencing errors. Therefore, when analyzing EST sequences computationally, such errors must be taken into account. Earlier attempts to model error prone coding regions have shown good performance in detecting and predicting these while correcting sequencing errors using codon usage frequencies. In the research presented here, we improve the detection of translation start and stop sites by integrating a more complex mRNA model with codon usage bias based error correction into one hidden Markov model (HMM), thus generalizing this error correction approach to more complex HMMs. We show that our method maintains the performance in detecting coding sequences.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Geografia associativa e imperialismo svizzero. Il caso di Ginevra (1858-1914)

ASSOCIATIVE GEOGRAPHY AND SWISS IMPERIALISM. THE EXAMPLE OF GENEVA (1858-1914) − This article is about geographical society of Geneva and its involvement in the 19th century colonial imperialism. Through this society, Swiss bourgeoisie takes part in the exploration and colonization of the world. Is this participation a sign of Swiss imperialism? This issue will be at the heart of this study.

Skin permeation and metabolism of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP).

Phthalates are suspected to be endocrine disruptors. Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is assumed to have low dermal absorption; however, previous in vitro skin permeation studies have shown large permeation differences. Our aims were to determine DEHP permeation parameters and assess extent of skin DEHP metabolism among workers highly exposed to these lipophilic, low volatile substances. Surgically removed skin from patients undergoing abdominoplasty was immediately dermatomed (800 μm) and mounted on flow-through diffusion cells (1.77 cm(2)) operating at 32°C with cell culture media (aqueous solution) as the reservoir liquid. The cells were dosed either with neat DEHP or emulsified in aqueous solution (166 μg/ml). Samples were analysed by HPLC-MS/MS. DEHP permeated human viable skin only as the metabolite MEHP (100%) after 8h of exposure. Human skin was able to further oxidize MEHP to 5-oxo-MEHP. Neat DEHP applied to the skin hardly permeated skin while the aqueous solution readily permeated skin measured in both cases as concentration of MEHP in the receptor liquid. DEHP pass through human skin, detected as MEHP only when emulsified in aqueous solution, and to a far lesser degree when applied neat to the skin. Using results from older in vitro skin permeation studies with non-viable skin may underestimate skin exposures. Our results are in overall agreement with newer phthalate skin permeation studies.