Combining follow-up and change data is valid in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether it is valid to combine follow-up and change data when conducting meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Meta-epidemiological study of randomized controlled trials in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee/hip, which assessed patient-reported pain. We calculated standardized mean differences (SMDs) based on follow-up and change data, and pooled within-trial differences in SMDs. We also derived pooled SMDs indicating the largest treatment effect within a trial (optimistic selection of SMDs) and derived pooled SMDs from the estimate indicating the smallest treatment effect within a trial (pessimistic selection of SMDs). RESULTS A total of 21 meta-analyses with 189 trials with 292 randomized comparisons in 41,256 patients were included. On average, SMDs were 0.04 standard deviation units more beneficial when follow-up values were used (difference in SMDs: -0.04; 95% confidence interval: -0.13, 0.06; P=0.44). In 13 meta-analyses (62%), there was a relevant difference in clinical and/or significance level between optimistic and pessimistic pooled SMDs. CONCLUSION On average, there is no relevant difference between follow-up and change data SMDs, and combining these estimates in meta-analysis is generally valid. Decision on which type of data to use when both follow-up and change data are available should be prespecified in the meta-analysis protocol.

Variation of a test's sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence

BACKGROUND Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. METHODS We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10-39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. RESULTS Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for either sensitivity or specificity in 8 meta-analyses (35%). Overall, specificity tended to be lower with higher disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. INTERPRETATION The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in old age

BACKGROUND Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been implicated as a risk factor for cognitive decline in old age, but results are inconsistent. We investigated the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). METHODS Prospective longitudinal study of men and women aged 70-82 years with pre-existing vascular disease or more than one risk factor to develop this condition (N = 5,154). Participants taking antithyroid medications, thyroid hormone supplementation and/or amiodarone were excluded. Thyroid function was measured at baseline: subclinical hyper- and hypothyroidism were defined as thyroid stimulating hormones (TSH) <0.45 mU/L or >4.50 mU/L respectively, with normal levels of free thyroxine (FT4). Cognitive performance was tested at baseline and at four subsequent time points during a mean follow-up of 3 years, using five neuropsychological performance tests. RESULTS Subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were found in 65 and 161 participants, respectively. We found no consistent association of subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism with altered cognitive performance compared to euthyroid participants on the individual cognitive tests. Similarly, there was no association with rate of cognitive decline during follow-up. CONCLUSION We found no consistent evidence that subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism contribute to cognitive impairment or decline in old age. Although our data are not in support of treatment of subclinical thyroid dysfunction to prevent cognitive dysfunction in later life, only large randomized controlled trials can provide definitive evidence.

Quantification of Popliteal Artery Deformation During Leg Flexion in Subjects With Peripheral Artery Disease: A Pilot Study

Purpose: To quantify the in vivo deformations of the popliteal artery during leg flexion in subjects with clinically relevant peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods: Five patients (4 men; mean age 69 years, range 56–79) with varying calcification levels of the popliteal artery undergoing endovascular revascularization underwent 3-dimensional (3D) rotational angiography. Image acquisition was performed with the leg straight and with a flexion of 70°/20° in the knee/hip joints. The arterial centerline and the corresponding branches in both positions were segmented to create 3D reconstructions of the arterial trees. Axial deformation, twisting, and curvatures were quantified. Furthermore, the relationships between the calcification levels and the deformations were investigated. Results: An average shortening of 5.9%±2.5% and twist rate of 3.8±2.2°/cm in the popliteal artery were observed. Maximal curvatures in the straight and flexed positions were 0.12±0.04 cm−1 and 0.24±0.09 cm−1, respectively. As the severity of calcification increased, the maximal curvature in the straight position increased from 0.08 to 0.17 cm−1, while an increase from 0.17 to 0.39 cm−1 was observed for the flexed position. Axial elongations and arterial twisting were not affected by the calcification levels. Conclusion: The popliteal artery of patients with symptomatic PAD is exposed to significant deformations during flexion of the knee joint. The severity of calcification directly affects curvature, but not arterial length or twisting angles. This pilot study also showed the ability of rotational angiography to quantify the 3D deformations of the popliteal artery in patients with various levels of calcification.

Genetic diversity in the modern horse illustrated from genome-wide SNP data.

Horses were domesticated from the Eurasian steppes 5,000-6,000 years ago. Since then, the use of horses for transportation, warfare, and agriculture, as well as selection for desired traits and fitness, has resulted in diverse populations distributed across the world, many of which have become or are in the process of becoming formally organized into closed, breeding populations (breeds). This report describes the use of a genome-wide set of autosomal SNPs and 814 horses from 36 breeds to provide the first detailed description of equine breed diversity. F(ST) calculations, parsimony, and distance analysis demonstrated relationships among the breeds that largely reflect geographic origins and known breed histories. Low levels of population divergence were observed between breeds that are relatively early on in the process of breed development, and between those with high levels of within-breed diversity, whether due to large population size, ongoing outcrossing, or large within-breed phenotypic diversity. Populations with low within-breed diversity included those which have experienced population bottlenecks, have been under intense selective pressure, or are closed populations with long breed histories. These results provide new insights into the relationships among and the diversity within breeds of horses. In addition these results will facilitate future genome-wide association studies and investigations into genomic targets of selection.

Genomic signatures of relaxed disruptive selection associated with speciation reversal in whitefish

Background: Speciation reversal: the erosion of species differentiation via an increase in introgressive hybridization due to the weakening of previously divergent selection regimes, is thought to be an important, yet poorly understood, driver of biodiversity loss. Our study system, the Alpine whitefish (Coregonus spp.) species complex is a classic example of a recent postglacial adaptive radiation: forming an array of endemic lake flocks, with the independent origination of similar ecotypes among flocks. However, many of the lakes of the Alpine radiation have been seriously impacted by anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, resulting in a collapse in neutral genetic and phenotypic differentiation within the most polluted lakes. Here we investigate the effects of eutrophication on the selective forces that have shaped this radiation, using population genomics. We studied eight sympatric species assemblages belonging to five independent parallel adaptive radiations, and one species pair in secondary contact. We used AFLP markers, and applied FST outlier (BAYESCAN, DFDIST) and logistic regression analyses (MATSAM), to identify candidate regions for disruptive selection in the genome and their associations with adaptive traits within each lake flock. The number of outlier and adaptive trait associated loci identified per lake were then regressed against two variables (historical phosphorus concentration and contemporary oxygen concentration) representing the strength of eutrophication. Results: Whilst we identify disruptive selection candidate regions in all lake flocks, we find similar trends, across analysis methods, towards fewer disruptive selection candidate regions and fewer adaptive trait/candidate loci associations in the more polluted lakes. Conclusions: Weakened disruptive selection and a concomitant breakdown in reproductive isolating mechanisms in more polluted lakes has lead to increased gene flow between coexisting Alpine whitefish species. We hypothesize that the resulting higher rates of interspecific recombination reduce either the number or extent of genomic islands of divergence surrounding loci evolving under disruptive natural selection. This produces the negative trend seen in the number of selection candidate loci recovered during genome scans of whitefish species flocks, with increasing levels of anthropogenic eutrophication: as the likelihood decreases that AFLP restriction sites will fall within regions of heightened genomic divergence and therefore be classified as FST outlier loci. This study explores for the first time the potential effects of human-mediated relaxation of disruptive selection on heterogeneous genomic divergence between coexisting species.

Occupational role stress is associated with higher cortisol reactivity to acute stress

We investigated whether occupational role stress is associated with differential levels of the stress hormone cortisol in response to acute psychosocial stress. Forty-three medication-free nonsmoking men aged between 22 and 65 years (mean ± SEM: 44.5 ± 2) underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task combining public speaking and mental arithmetic in front of an audience. We assessed occupational role stress in terms of role conflict and role ambiguity (combined into a measure of role uncertainty) as well as further work characteristics and psychological control variables including time pressure, overcommitment, perfectionism, and stress appraisal. Moreover, we repeatedly measured salivary cortisol and blood pressure levels before and after stress exposure, and several times up to 60 min thereafter. Higher role uncertainty was associated with a more pronounced cortisol stress reactivity (p = .016), even when controlling for the full set of potential confounders (p < .001). Blood pressure stress reactivity was not associated with role uncertainty. Our findings suggest that occupational role stress in terms of role uncertainty acts as a background stressor that is associated with increased HPA-axis reactivity to acute stress. This finding may represent a potential mechanism regarding how occupational role stress may precipitate adverse health outcomes.

Bias associated with detrital zircon geochronology and thermochronometry

Detrital studies that utilize zircon U–Pb geochronology and fission-track (FT) thermochronometry are subject to a range of potential sources of bias that should be properly evaluated and minimized. Some of them are common to any single-grain mineral analysis (e.g., variable bedrock mineral fertility, hydraulic sorting during transport, selective grain loss during sample processing), whereas others are intrinsic to zircon, and are related to radiation damage and age discordance. In this article, we quantify the impact of intrinsic bias on detrital studies thanks to the analysis of modern detritus shed from the European Alps, and illustrate the general implications on geological interpretations. We show that detrital zircon U–Pb age distributions based on statistically robust datasets are highly reproducible and representative of the parent bedrock ages in the catchment. Arbitrary or selective removal of discordant grain ages can be minimized by using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to identify an appropriate cutoff level. Loss of metamict (α-damaged) zircon has a minor impact on data representativeness, and is mainly controlled by regional metamorphism rather than by mechanical abrasion during river transport. Zircon FT grain-age distributions were found to have poor reproducibility, although age spectra are consistent with bedrock data. However, unlike the U–Pb datasets, U-rich zircon grains (> 1000 ppm) are systematically missed, and undatable grains may exceed 50%. We identify two major sources of distribution bias specific to zircon FT datasets: (i) sediment sources dominated by U-rich zircon grains are markedly underrepresented in the detrital record, because such grains often have uncountable high densities of fission tracks (“U concentration bias”); (ii) sediment sources that shed zircon grains with high levels of α-damage are underrepresented, because these grains are lost during chemical etching for FT revelation (“etching bias”). In the case of multimethod dating on the same grains (e.g., FT and U–Pb double dating), bias affecting detrital zircon FT dating propagates to the entire dataset. These effects may not impact on exhumation-rate studies that utilize the youngest grain ages (i.e., lag-time approach). However, they represent a limiting factor for conventional provenance studies, and generally preclude application of zircon FT dating to sediment budget calculations.

Testosterone and acute stress are associated with fibrinogen and von Willebrand factor in African men: the SABPA study.

BACKGROUND Low testosterone, acute and chronic stress and hypercoagulation are all associated with hypertension and hypertension-related diseases. The interaction between these factors and future risk for coronary artery disease in Africans has not been fully elucidated. In this study, associations of testosterone, acute cardiovascular and coagulation stress responses with fibrinogen and von Willebrand factor in African and Caucasian men in a South African cohort were investigated. METHODS Cardiovascular variables were studied by means of beat-to-beat and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Fasting serum-, salivary testosterone and citrate coagulation markers were obtained from venous blood samples. Acute mental stress responses were evoked with the Stroop test. RESULTS The African group demonstrated a higher cardiovascular risk compared to Caucasian men with elevated blood pressure, low-grade inflammation, chronic hyperglycemia (HbA1c), lower testosterone levels, and elevated von Willebrand factor (VWF) and fibrinogen levels. Blunted testosterone acute mental stress responses were demonstrated in African males. In multiple regression analyses, higher circulating levels of fibrinogen and VWF in Africans were associated with a low T environment (R(2) 0.24-0.28; p≤0.01), but only circulating fibrinogen in Caucasians. Regarding endothelial function, a low testosterone environment and a profile of augmented α-adrenergic acute mental stress responses (diastolic BP, D-dimer and testosterone) were associated with circulating VWF levels in Africans (Adj R(2) 0.24; p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS An interdependence between acute mental stress, salivary testosterone, D-dimer and vascular responses existed in African males in their association with circulating VWF but no interdependence of the independent variables occurred with fibrinogen levels.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy investigations of functionally defined language areas in schizophrenia patients with and without auditory hallucinations

Background: Cerebral dysfunction occurring in mental disorders can show metabolic disturbances which are limited to circumscribed brain areas. Auditory hallucinations have been shown to be related to defined cortical areas linked to specific language functions. Here, we investigated if the study of metabolic changes in auditory hallucinations requires a functional rather than an anatomical definition of their location and size to allow a reliable investigation by magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). Methods: Schizophrenia patients with (AH; n = 12) and without hallucinations (NH; n = 8) and healthy controls (HC; n = 11) underwent a verbal fluency task in functional MRI (fMRI) to functionally define Broca's and Wernicke's areas. Left and right Heschl's gyri were defined anatomically. Results: The mean distances in native space between the fMRI-defined regions and a corresponding anatomically defined area were 12.4 ± 6.1 mm (range: 2.7–36.1 mm) for Broca's area and 16.8 ± 6.2 mm (range: 4.5–26.4 mm) for Wernicke's area, respectively. Hence, the spatial variance was of similar extent as the size of the investigated regions. Splitting the investigations into a single voxel examination in the frontal brain and a spectroscopic imaging part for the more homogeneous field areas led to good spectral quality for almost all spectra. In Broca's area, there was a significant group effect (p = 0.03) with lower levels of N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) in NH compared to HC (p = 0.02). There were positive associations of NAA levels in the left Heschl's gyrus with total (p = 0.03) and negative (p = 0.006) PANSS scores. In Broca's area, there was a negative association of myo-inositol levels with total PANSS scores (p = 0.008). Conclusion: This study supports the neurodegenerative hypothesis of schizophrenia only in a frontal region whereas the results obtained from temporal regions are in contrast to the majority of previous studies. Future research should test the hypothesis raised by this study that a functional definition of language regions is needed if neurochemical imbalances are expected to be restricted to functional foci.

Body weight, insulin resistance, and serum adipokine levels 2 years after 2 types of bariatric surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Bariatric surgery reverses obesity-related comorbidities, including type 2 diabetes mellitus. Several studies have already described differences in anthropometrics and body composition in patients undergoing Roux-en-Y gastric bypass compared with laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding, but the role of adipokines in the outcomes after the different types of surgery is not known. Differences in weight loss and reversal of insulin resistance exist between the 2 groups and correlate with changes in adipokines. METHODS: Fifteen severely obese women (mean body mass index [BMI]: 46.7 kg/m(2)) underwent 2 types of laparoscopic weight loss surgery (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass=10, adjustable gastric banding=5). Weight, waist and hip circumference, body composition, plasma metabolic markers, and lipids were measured at set intervals during a 24-month period after surgery. RESULTS: At 24 months, patients who underwent Roux-en-Y were overweight (BMI 29.7 kg/m(2)), whereas patients who underwent gastric banding remained obese (BMI 36.3 kg/m(2)). Patients who underwent Roux-en-Y lost significantly more fat mass than patients who underwent gastric banding (mean difference 16.8 kg, P<.05). Likewise, leptin levels were lower in the patients who underwent Roux-en-Y (P=.003), and levels correlated with weight loss, loss of fat mass, insulin levels, and Homeostasis Model of Assessment 2. Adiponectin correlated with insulin levels and Homeostasis Model of Assessment 2 (r=-0.653, P=.04 and r=-0.674, P=.032, respectively) in the patients who underwent Roux-en-Y at 24 months. CONCLUSION: After 2 years, weight loss and normalization of metabolic parameters were less pronounced in patients who underwent gastric banding compared with patients who underwent Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. Our findings require confirmation in a prospective randomized trial.

Regulation of hepatic cytochrome P450 expression in mice with intestinal or systemic infections of citrobacter rodentium.

We reported previously that infection of C3H/HeOuJ (HeOu) mice with the murine intestinal pathogen Citrobacter rodentium caused a selective modulation of hepatic cytochrome P450 (P450) gene expression in the liver that was independent of the Toll-like receptor 4. However, HeOu mice are much more sensitive to the pathogenic effects of C. rodentium infection, and the P450 down-regulation was associated with significant morbidity in the animals. Here, we report that oral infection of C57BL/6 mice with C. rodentium, which produced only mild clinical signs and symptoms, produced very similar effects on hepatic P450 expression in this strain. As in HeOu mice, CYP4A mRNAs and proteins were among the most sensitive to down-regulation, whereas CYP4F18 was induced. CYP2D9 mRNA was also induced 8- to 9-fold in the C57BL/6 mice. The time course of P450 regulation followed that of colonic inflammation and bacterial colonization, peaking at 7 to 10 days after infection and returning to normal at 15 to 24 days as the infection resolved. These changes also correlated with the time course of significant elevations in the serum of the proinflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, as well as of interferon-gamma and IL-2, with serum levels of IL-6 being markedly higher than those of the other cytokines. Intraperitoneal administration of C. rodentium produced a rapid down-regulation of P450 enzymes that was quantitatively and qualitatively different from that of oral infection, although CYP2D9 was induced in both models, suggesting that the effects of oral infection on the liver are not due to bacterial translocation.

Treatment evolution in high-risk congenital diaphragmatic hernia: ten years' experience with diaphragmatic agenesis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of newer therapies on the highest risk patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH), those with agenesis of the diaphragm. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: CDH remains a significant cause of neonatal mortality. Many novel therapeutic interventions have been used in these infants. Those children with large defects or agenesis of the diaphragm have the highest mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Twenty centers from 5 countries collected data prospectively on all liveborn infants with CDH over a 10-year period. The treatment and outcomes in these patients were examined. Patients were followed until death or hospital discharge. RESULTS: A total of 1,569 patients with CDH were seen between January 1995 and December 2004 in 20 centers. A total of 218 patients (14%) had diaphragmatic agenesis and underwent repair. The overall survival for all patients was 68%, while survival was 54% in patients with agenesis. When patients with diaphragmatic agenesis from the first 2 years were compared with similar patients from the last 2 years, there was significantly less use of ECMO (75% vs. 52%) and an increased use of inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) (30% vs. 80%). There was a trend toward improved survival in patients with agenesis from 47% in the first 2 years to 59% in the last 2 years. The survivors with diaphragmatic agenesis had prolonged hospital stays compared with patients without agenesis (median, 68 vs. 30 days). For the last 2 years of the study, 36% of the patients with agenesis were discharged on tube feedings and 22% on oxygen therapy. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a change in the management of infants with CDH with less frequent use of ECMO and a greater use of iNO in high-risk patients with a potential improvement in survival. However, the mortality, hospital length of stay, and morbidity in agenesis patients remain significant.

Mechanistic studies of mouse skin tumor promotion by chrysarobin

Since the anthrone chrysarobin oxidizes and generates free radicals, investigations were conducted to assess a possible role for free radicals or reactive oxygen species (ROS) in skin tumor promotion by chrysarobin. Epidermal glutathione levels were not noticeably altered by chrysarobin, nor did a glutathione-depleting agent enhance promotion by chrysarobin. Multiple applications of chrysarobin increased lipid peroxide levels in mouse epidermis two-fold as compared with controls. The antioxidant $\alpha$-tocopherol and the lipoxygenase inhibitor nordihydroguaiaretic acid both inhibited production of lipid peroxides by chrysarobin. The antioxidants $\alpha$-tocopherol acetate and ascorbyl palmitate effectively inhibited promotion and promoter-related effects induced by chrysarobin. Since prooxidant states can lead to increases in intracellular Ca$\sp{2+}$, the effect of two Ca$\sp{2+}$ antagonists, verapamil and TMB-8, on chrysarobin-induced promotion and promoter-related effects were investigated. Both Ca$\sp{2+}$ antagonists inhibited promotion and promoter-related effects induced by chrysarobin, suggesting a possible role for intracellular Ca$\sp{2+}$ alterations in chrysarobin-tumor promotion. Since radical generating compounds are reported to possess the ability to enhance progression of papillomas to squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), the effects of chrysarobin on papilloma development were tested. Growth kinetics and regression of papillomas generated with limited promotion with chrysarobin were similar to what was reported for the nonradical generating promoter 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) (Aldaz et al., 1991). To test the chrysarobin's ability to enhance progression of pre-existing papillomas to SCCs, tumors were generated by initiation with dimethylbenz (a) anthracene and promotion with TPA. Then mice were treated with chrysarobin, TPA or acetone for 45 weeks. When mice treated with chrysarobin were compared to mice treated continually with TPA with similar numbers of papillomas, the number of papillomas that progressed to SCCs was similar, suggesting that papilloma burden influences the progression of papillomas to SCCs, rather than radical production. In summary, the present study suggests that chrysarobin produces oxidative stress in mouse epidermis as indicated by the generation of lipid peroxides. Antioxidants inhibited production of lipid peroxides and tumor promotion by chrysarobin. Collectively, these data suggest a role for free radicals or ROS in tumor promotion by chrysarobin. ^

Evaluation of the accuracy of multilevel analysis parameter estimates for intra-cluster correlation in correlated binary data

Many studies in biostatistics deal with binary data. Some of these studies involve correlated observations, which can complicate the analysis of the resulting data. Studies of this kind typically arise when a high degree of commonality exists between test subjects. If there exists a natural hierarchy in the data, multilevel analysis is an appropriate tool for the analysis. Two examples are the measurements on identical twins, or the study of symmetrical organs or appendages such as in the case of ophthalmic studies. Although this type of matching appears ideal for the purposes of comparison, analysis of the resulting data while ignoring the effect of intra-cluster correlation has been shown to produce biased results.^ This paper will explore the use of multilevel modeling of simulated binary data with predetermined levels of correlation. Data will be generated using the Beta-Binomial method with varying degrees of correlation between the lower level observations. The data will be analyzed using the multilevel software package MlwiN (Woodhouse, et al, 1995). Comparisons between the specified intra-cluster correlation of these data and the estimated correlations, using multilevel analysis, will be used to examine the accuracy of this technique in analyzing this type of data. ^