Examining performance of aggregation algorithms for neural network-based electricity demand forecasting

The aim of this research is to examine the efficiency of different aggregation algorithms to the forecasts obtained from individual neural network (NN) models in an ensemble. In this study an ensemble of 100 NN models are constructed with a heterogeneous architecture. The outputs from NN models are combined by three different aggregation algorithms. These aggregation algorithms comprise of a simple average, trimmed mean, and a Bayesian model averaging. These methods are utilized with certain modifications and are employed on the forecasts obtained from all individual NN models. The output of the aggregation algorithms is analyzed and compared with the individual NN models used in NN ensemble and with a Naive approach. Thirty-minutes interval electricity demand data from Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the New York Independent System Operator's web site (NYISO) are used in the empirical analysis. It is observed that the aggregation algorithm perform better than many of the individual NN models. In comparison with the Naive approach, the aggregation algorithms exhibit somewhat better forecasting performance.

Hybrid controller with the combination of FLC and neural network-based IMC for nonlinear processes

This work presents a hybrid controller based on the combination of fuzzy logic control (FLC) mechanism and internal model-based control (IMC). Neural network-based inverse and forward models are developed for IMC. After designing the FLC and IMC independently, they are combined in parallel to produce a single control signal. Mean averaging mechanism is used to combine the prediction of both controllers. Finally, performance of the proposed hybrid controller is studied for a nonlinear numerical plant model (NNPM). Simulation result shows the proposed hybrid controller outperforms both FLC and IMC.

Prediction interval-based neural network controller for nonlinear processes

Prediction interval (PI) has been extensively used to predict the forecasts for nonlinear systems as PI-based forecast is superior over point-forecast to quantify the uncertainties and disturbances associated with the real processes. In addition, PIs bear more information than point-forecasts, such as forecast accuracy. The aim of this paper is to integrate the concept of informative PIs in the control applications to improve the tracking performance of the nonlinear controllers. In the present work, a PI-based controller (PIC) is proposed to control the nonlinear processes. Neural network (NN) inverse model is used as a controller in the proposed method. Firstly, a PI-based model is developed to construct PIs for every sample or time instance. The PIs are then fed to the NN inverse model along with other effective process inputs and outputs. The PI-based NN inverse model predicts the plant input to get the desired plant output. The performance of the proposed PIC controller is examined for a nonlinear process. Simulation results indicate that the tracking performance of the PIC is highly acceptable and better than the traditional NN inverse model-based controller.

Técnicas de avaliação da confiabilidade em estruturas de concreto armado

Neste trabalho é dado ênfase à inclusão das incertezas na avaliação do comportamento estrutural, objetivando uma melhor representação das características do sistema e uma quantificação do significado destas incertezas no projeto. São feitas comparações entre as técnicas clássicas existentes de análise de confiabilidade, tais como FORM, Simulação Direta Monte Carlo (MC) e Simulação Monte Carlo com Amostragem por Importância Adaptativa (MCIS), e os métodos aproximados da Superfície de Resposta( RS) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais(ANN). Quando possível, as comparações são feitas salientando- se as vantagens e inconvenientes do uso de uma ou de outra técnica em problemas com complexidades crescentes. São analisadas desde formulações com funções de estado limite explícitas até formulações implícitas com variabilidade espacial de carregamento e propriedades dos materiais, incluindo campos estocásticos. É tratado, em especial, o problema da análise da confiabilidade de estruturas de concreto armado incluindo o efeito da variabilidade espacial de suas propriedades. Para tanto é proposto um modelo de elementos finitos para a representação do concreto armado que incorpora as principais características observadas neste material. Também foi desenvolvido um modelo para a geração de campos estocásticos multidimensionais não Gaussianos para as propriedades do material e que é independente da malha de elementos finitos, assim como implementadas técnicas para aceleração das avaliações estruturais presentes em qualquer das técnicas empregadas. Para o tratamento da confiabilidade através da técnica da Superfície de Resposta, o algoritmo desenvolvido por Rajashekhar et al(1993) foi implementado. Já para o tratamento através de Redes Neurais Artificias, foram desenvolvidos alguns códigos para a simulação de redes percéptron multicamada e redes com função de base radial e então implementados no algoritmo de avaliação de confiabilidade desenvolvido por Shao et al(1997). Em geral, observou-se que as técnicas de simulação tem desempenho bastante baixo em problemas mais complexos, sobressaindo-se a técnica de primeira ordem FORM e as técnicas aproximadas da Superfície de Resposta e de Redes Neurais Artificiais, embora com precisão prejudicada devido às aproximações presentes.

Controle preditivo neural aplicado à processos petroquímicos

A pesquisa tem como objetivo desenvolver uma estrutura de controle preditivo neural, com o intuito de controlar um processo de pH, caracterizado por ser um sistema SISO (Single Input - Single Output). O controle de pH é um processo de grande importância na indústria petroquímica, onde se deseja manter constante o nível de acidez de um produto ou neutralizar o afluente de uma planta de tratamento de fluidos. O processo de controle de pH exige robustez do sistema de controle, pois este processo pode ter ganho estático e dinâmica nãolineares. O controlador preditivo neural envolve duas outras teorias para o seu desenvolvimento, a primeira referente ao controle preditivo e a outra a redes neurais artificiais (RNA s). Este controlador pode ser dividido em dois blocos, um responsável pela identificação e outro pelo o cálculo do sinal de controle. Para realizar a identificação neural é utilizada uma RNA com arquitetura feedforward multicamadas com aprendizagem baseada na metodologia da Propagação Retroativa do Erro (Error Back Propagation). A partir de dados de entrada e saída da planta é iniciado o treinamento offline da rede. Dessa forma, os pesos sinápticos são ajustados e a rede está apta para representar o sistema com a máxima precisão possível. O modelo neural gerado é usado para predizer as saídas futuras do sistema, com isso o otimizador calcula uma série de ações de controle, através da minimização de uma função objetivo quadrática, fazendo com que a saída do processo siga um sinal de referência desejado. Foram desenvolvidos dois aplicativos, ambos na plataforma Builder C++, o primeiro realiza a identificação, via redes neurais e o segundo é responsável pelo controle do processo. As ferramentas aqui implementadas e aplicadas são genéricas, ambas permitem a aplicação da estrutura de controle a qualquer novo processo

Especificação de um bloco funcional implementando rede neural para redes industriais foundations fieldbus

This work proposes the specification of a new function block according to Foundation Fieldbus standards. The new block implements an artificial neural network, which may be useful in process control applications. The specification includes the definition of a main algorithm, that implements a neural network, as well as the description of some accessory functions, which provide safety characteristics to the block operation. Besides, it also describes the block attributes emphasizing its parameters, which constitute the block interfaces. Some experimental results, obtained from an artificial neural network implementation using actual standard functional blocks on a laboratorial FF network, are also shown, in order to demonstrate the possibility and also the convenience of integrating a neural network to Fieldbus devices

Recuperação e purificação de quitosanases usando adsorção em leito expandido com streamline DEAE com modelagem e simulação usando redes neurais

Expanded Bed Adsorption (EBA) is an integrative process that combines concepts of chromatography and fluidization of solids. The many parameters involved and their synergistic effects complicate the optimization of the process. Fortunately, some mathematical tools have been developed in order to guide the investigation of the EBA system. In this work the application of experimental design, phenomenological modeling and artificial neural networks (ANN) in understanding chitosanases adsorption on ion exchange resin Streamline® DEAE have been investigated. The strain Paenibacillus ehimensis NRRL B-23118 was used for chitosanase production. EBA experiments were carried out using a column of 2.6 cm inner diameter with 30.0 cm in height that was coupled to a peristaltic pump. At the bottom of the column there was a distributor of glass beads having a height of 3.0 cm. Assays for residence time distribution (RTD) revelead a high degree of mixing, however, the Richardson-Zaki coefficients showed that the column was on the threshold of stability. Isotherm models fitted the adsorption equilibrium data in the presence of lyotropic salts. The results of experiment design indicated that the ionic strength and superficial velocity are important to the recovery and purity of chitosanases. The molecular mass of the two chitosanases were approximately 23 kDa and 52 kDa as estimated by SDS-PAGE. The phenomenological modeling was aimed to describe the operations in batch and column chromatography. The simulations were performed in Microsoft Visual Studio. The kinetic rate constant model set to kinetic curves efficiently under conditions of initial enzyme activity 0.232, 0.142 e 0.079 UA/mL. The simulated breakthrough curves showed some differences with experimental data, especially regarding the slope. Sensitivity tests of the model on the surface velocity, axial dispersion and initial concentration showed agreement with the literature. The neural network was constructed in MATLAB and Neural Network Toolbox. The cross-validation was used to improve the ability of generalization. The parameters of ANN were improved to obtain the settings 6-6 (enzyme activity) and 9-6 (total protein), as well as tansig transfer function and Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm. The neural Carlos Eduardo de Araújo Padilha dezembro/2013 9 networks simulations, including all the steps of cycle, showed good agreement with experimental data, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.974. The effects of input variables on profiles of the stages of loading, washing and elution were consistent with the literature

An Intelligent System for Petroleum Well Drilling Cutting Analysis

Cutting analysis is a important and crucial task task to detect and prevent problems during the petroleum well drilling process. Several studies have been developed for drilling inspection, but none of them takes care about analysing the generated cutting at the vibrating shale shakers. Here we proposed a system to analyse the cutting's concentration at the vibrating shale shakers, which can indicate problems during the petroleum well drilling process, such that the collapse of the well borehole walls. Cutting's images are acquired and sent to the data analysis module, which has as the main goal to extract features and to classify frames according to one of three previously classes of cutting's volume. A collection of supervised classifiers were applied in order to allow comparisons about their accuracy and efficiency. We used the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), Artificial Neural Network using Multi layer Perceptrons (ANN-MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and a Bayesian Classifier (BC) for this task. The first one outperformed all the remaining classifiers. Recall that we are also the first to introduce the OPF classifier in this field of knowledge. Very good results show the robustness of the proposed system, which can be also integrated with other commonly system (Mud-Logging) in order to improve the last one's efficiency.

Multidimensional polynomial powers of sigmoid (PPS) Wavelet neural networks

Wavelet functions have been used as the activation function in feedforward neural networks. An abundance of R&D has been produced on wavelet neural network area. Some successful algorithms and applications in wavelet neural network have been developed and reported in the literature. However, most of the aforementioned reports impose many restrictions in the classical backpropagation algorithm, such as low dimensionality, tensor product of wavelets, parameters initialization, and, in general, the output is one dimensional, etc. In order to remove some of these restrictions, a family of polynomial wavelets generated from powers of sigmoid functions is presented. We described how a multidimensional wavelet neural networks based on these functions can be constructed, trained and applied in pattern recognition tasks. As an example of application for the method proposed, it is studied the exclusive-or (XOR) problem.

A novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers

The paper describes a novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers. The network acts as identifier of structural features to forecast process. So that output parameters can be estimated and generalized from an input parameter set. The model was trained and assessed through load data extracted from a Brazilian Electric Utility taking into account time, current, tension, active power in the three phases of the system. The results obtained in the simulations show that the developed technique can be used as an alternative tool to become more appropriate for planning of electric power systems.

Artificial neural networks applied in study of atmospheric parameters to high voltage substations concerning lightning

This gaper demonstrates that artificial neural networks can be used effectively for estimation of parameters related to study of atmospheric conditions to high voltage substations design. Specifically, the neural networks are used to compute the variation of electrical field intensity and critical disruptive voltage in substations taking into account several atmospheric factors, such as pressure, temperature, humidity, so on. Examples of simulation of tests are presented to validate the proposed approach. The results that were obtained by experimental evidences and numerical simulations allowed the verification of the influence of the atmospheric conditions on design of substations concerning lightning.

A novel intelligent system to nitrogen content prediction in plants using indirect chlorophyll measurements

The accurate identification of the nitrogen content in plants is extremely important since it involves economic aspects and environmental impacts, Several experimental tests have been carried out to obtain characteristics and parameters associated with the health of plants and its growing. The nitrogen content identification in plants involves a lot of non-linear parameters and complexes mathematical models. This paper describes a novel approach for identification of nitrogen content thought SPAD index using artificial neural networks (ANN). The network acts as identifier of relationships among, crop varieties, fertilizer treatments, type of leaf and nitrogen content in the plants (target). So, nitrogen content can be generalized and estimated and from an input parameter set. This approach can form the basis for development of an accurate real time system to predict nitrogen content in plants.

An efficient Hopfield network to solve economic dispatch problems with transmission system representation

Economic dispatch (ED) problems have recently been solved by artificial neural network approaches. Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of simple processing elements and the high degree of connectivity between these elements. The ability of neural networks to realize some complex non-linear function makes them attractive for system optimization. All ED models solved by neural approaches described in the literature fail to represent the transmission system. Therefore, such procedures may calculate dispatch policies, which do not take into account important active power constraints. Another drawback pointed out in the literature is that some of the neural approaches fail to converge efficiently toward feasible equilibrium points. A modified Hopfield approach designed to solve ED problems with transmission system representation is presented in this paper. The transmission system is represented through linear load flow equations and constraints on active power flows. The internal parameters of such modified Hopfield networks are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to feasible equilibrium points, which represent the solution for the ED problem. Simulation results and a sensitivity analysis involving IEEE 14-bus test system are presented to illustrate efficiency of the proposed approach. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design and analysis of an efficient neural network model for solving nonlinear optimization problems

This paper presents an efficient approach based on a recurrent neural network for solving constrained nonlinear optimization. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed, and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the convergence of the network to the equilibrium points that represent an optimal feasible solution. The main advantage of the developed network is that it handles optimization and constraint terms in different stages with no interference from each other. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require specification for penalty and weighting parameters for its initialization. A study of the modified Hopfield model is also developed to analyse its stability and convergence. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed neural network.

Analysis of forecasting capabilities of ground surfaces valuation using artificial neural networks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)