Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature under Cloudy Conditions using Microwave Remote Sensing and ANN

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable in climate, hydrologic, ecological, biophysical and biochemical studies (Mildrexler et al., 2011). The most effective way to obtain LST measurements is through satellites. Presently, LST from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor is applied in various fields due to its high spatial and temporal availability over the globe, but quite difficult to provide observations in cloudy conditions. This study evolves of prediction of LST under clear and cloudy conditions using microwave vegetation indices (MVIs), elevation, latitude, longitude and Julian day as inputs employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. MVIs can be obtained even under cloudy condition, since microwave radiation has an ability to penetrate through clouds. In this study LST and MVIs data of the year 2010 for the Cauvery basin on a daily basis were obtained from MODIS and advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E) sensors of aqua satellite respectively. Separate ANN models were trained and tested for the grid cells for which both LST and MVI were available. The performance of the models was evaluated based on standard evaluation measures. The best performing model was used to predict LST where MVIs were available. Results revealed that predictions of LST using ANN are in good agreement with the observed values. The ANN approach presented in this study promises to be useful for predicting LST using satellite observations even in cloudy conditions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals From Orbital Data Products of TRMM Over a Subtropical Basin in India

The spatial error structure of daily precipitation derived from the latest version 7 (v7) tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) level 2 data products are studied through comparison with the Asian precipitation highly resolved observational data integration toward evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) data over a subtropical region of the Indian subcontinent for the seasonal rainfall over 6 years from June 2002 to September 2007. The data products examined include v7 data from the TRMM radiometer Microwave Imager (TMI) and radar precipitation radar (PR), namely, 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31 (combined data from PR and TMI). The spatial distribution of uncertainty from these data products were quantified based on performance metrics derived from the contingency table. For the seasonal daily precipitation over a subtropical basin in India, the data product of 2A12 showed greater skill in detecting and quantifying the volume of rainfall when compared with the 2A25 and 2B31 data products. Error characterization using various error models revealed that random errors from multiplicative error models were homoscedastic and that they better represented rainfall estimates from 2A12 algorithm. Error decomposition techniques performed to disentangle systematic and random errors verify that the multiplicative error model representing rainfall from 2A12 algorithm successfully estimated a greater percentage of systematic error than 2A25 or 2B31 algorithms. Results verify that although the radiometer derived 2A12 rainfall data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that the 2A12 rainfall estimates are in a very good agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered.

Correlation equations for average deposition rate coefficients of nanoparticles in a cylindrical pore

Nanoparticle deposition behavior observed at the Darcy scale represents an average of the processes occurring at the pore scale. Hence, the effect of various pore-scale parameters on nanoparticle deposition can be understood by studying nanoparticle transport at pore scale and upscaling the results to the Darcy scale. In this work, correlation equations for the deposition rate coefficients of nanoparticles in a cylindrical pore are developed as a function of nine pore-scale parameters: the pore radius, nanoparticle radius, mean flow velocity, solution ionic strength, viscosity, temperature, solution dielectric constant, and nanoparticle and collector surface potentials. Based on dominant processes, the pore space is divided into three different regions, namely, bulk, diffusion, and potential regions. Advection-diffusion equations for nanoparticle transport are prescribed for the bulk and diffusion regions, while the interaction between the diffusion and potential regions is included as a boundary condition. This interaction is modeled as a first-order reversible kinetic adsorption. The expressions for the mass transfer rate coefficients between the diffusion and the potential regions are derived in terms of the interaction energy profile. Among other effects, we account for nanoparticle-collector interaction forces on nanoparticle deposition. The resulting equations are solved numerically for a range of values of pore-scale parameters. The nanoparticle concentration profile obtained for the cylindrical pore is averaged over a moving averaging volume within the pore in order to get the 1-D concentration field. The latter is fitted to the 1-D advection-dispersion equation with an equilibrium or kinetic adsorption model to determine the values of the average deposition rate coefficients. In this study, pore-scale simulations are performed for three values of Peclet number, Pe = 0.05, 5, and 50. We find that under unfavorable conditions, the nanoparticle deposition at pore scale is best described by an equilibrium model at low Peclet numbers (Pe = 0.05) and by a kinetic model at high Peclet numbers (Pe = 50). But, at an intermediate Pe (e.g., near Pe = 5), both equilibrium and kinetic models fit the 1-D concentration field. Correlation equations for the pore-averaged nanoparticle deposition rate coefficients under unfavorable conditions are derived by performing a multiple-linear regression analysis between the estimated deposition rate coefficients for a single pore and various pore-scale parameters. The correlation equations, which follow a power law relation with nine pore-scale parameters, are found to be consistent with the column-scale and pore-scale experimental results, and qualitatively agree with the colloid filtration theory. These equations can be incorporated into pore network models to study the effect of pore-scale parameters on nanoparticle deposition at larger length scales such as Darcy scale.

Environmental Mechanics Research in China

By recalling mankind's path during past 50 years in the present article, we mainly highlight the significance of environmental issues today. In particular, two major factors leading to environment deterioration in China such as water resources and coal burning are stressed on. Present-day environmental issues are obviously interdisciplinary, of multiple scales and multi-composition in nature. Therefore, a process-based approach for environment research is absolutely necessarily. A series of sub-processes, either physical, chemical or biological, are subsequently analyzed in order to established reasonable parameterization scheme and credible comprehensive model. And we are now in a position to answer questions still open to us, improve existing somewhat empirical engineering approaches and enhance quantitative accuracy in prediction. To illustrate this process-based research approach, three typical examples associated with the Yangtze River Estuary, Loess Plateau and Tenggeli Desert environments have been dealt with respectively. A theoretical model of vertical flow field accounting for runoff and tide interaction has been established to delineate salinity and sediment motion which are responsible for the formation of mouth bar at the outlet and the ecological evolution there. A kinematic wave theory combined with the revised Green-Ampt infiltration formula is applied to the prediction of runoff generation and erosion in three types of erosion region on the Loess Plateau. Three approaches describing water motion in SPAC system in arid areas at different levels have been improved by introducing vegetation sub-models. However, we have found that the formation of a dry sandy layer and biological crust skin are additional primary causes leading to deterioration of water supply and succession of ecological system.

Records of hydrologic data, Walton County, Florida

This report presents discharge, chemical analyses, temperatures, and specific conductance records collected at 25 surface-water sites and chemical analyses of ground water, well descriptions and records of ground-water levels collected at 164 ground-water sites. It also contains 35 logs of the sedimentary rocks penetrated in the drilling of wells and test borings ranging in depth from 147 to 625 feet. These hydrologic data were collected as part of an investigation of the water resources of the county. The interpretative results of the investigation are in the report entitled, "Water resources of Walton County," by C. A. Pascale (in preparation, 1971). (108 page document)

Interim report on the progress of an inventory of artesian wells in Florida: leading to the enforcement of sections 370.051 - 370.54, Florida statues

One of the causes of lower artesian pressure, water waste and aquifer contamination is the misuse and insufficient care of artesian wells. In 1953, Senate Bill No. 57, entitled "An Act to Protect and Control the Artesian Waters of the State" (see Appendix) became a law. This law was passed through the efforts exerted by leading members of the Senate and the House of Representatives, who understood the need for a wise and controlled expenditure of our most valuable natural resource. The State Geologist and his authorized representatives were designated by this law to enforce this conservation measure; however, no financial provision was included for the 1953-55 biennium. The proposed program of the Florida Geological Survey for this biennium did not include the funds nor provide any full-time personnel for the enforcement of this statute. As a result, little actual work was accomplished during these two years, although much time was given to planning and discussion of the problem. Realizing that this program could provide additional basic data needed in the analysis of the water-supply problem, the State Geologist sought and was granted by the 1955 Legislature adequate funds with which to activate the first phase of the enforcement of Florida Statute No. 370.051-054. Enumerated below is a summary of the progress made on this investigation as outlined previously: 1. Data have been collected on 967 wildly flowing wells in 22 counties. 2. Chloride determinations have been run on 850 of the 967 wells. 3. Of the 967 wells, 554 have chlorides in excess of the 250 ppm, the upper limit assigned by the State Board of Health for public consumption. 4. Water escapes at the rate of 37, 762 gallons per minute from these 967 wells. This amounts to 54, 377, 280 gallons per day. The investigation is incomplete at this time; therefore, no final conclusions can be reached. However, from data already collected, the following recommendations are proposed: 1. That the present inventory of wildly flowing wells be completed for the entire State. 2. That the current inventory of wildly flowing wells be expanded at the conclusion of the present inventory to include all flowing wells. 3. That a complete statewide inventory program be established and conducted in cooperation with the Ground Water Branchof the U.S. Geological Survey. 4. That the enforcement functions as set down in Sections 370.051/.054, Florida Statutes, be separated from the program to collect water-resource data and that these functions be given to the Water Resources Department, if such is created (to be recommended by the Water Resources Study Commission in a water policy law presented to the 1957 Legislature). 5. That the research phase (well inventory) of the program remain under the direction of the Florida Geological Survey. (PDF contains 204 pages.)

Record of wells in Manatee County, Florida

A detailed study of the geology and ground-water resources of Manatee County (fig. 1) was made during the period from 1950 to 1955. This report contains a table of well records that was compiled from data collected during that investigation. The well-numbering system used in the table is based on latitude and longitude. (PDF contains 204 pages.)

Record of wells in the Ruskin area of Hillsborough County, FLorida

A detailed study of the geology and ground-water resources of the Ruskin area (fig. 1) was made during the period from 1950 to 1955, by the U. S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Florida Geological Survey and the Board of County Commissioners of Hillsborough County. The results of this study are given in a report by Harry M. Peek entitled "The artesian water of the Ruskin area of Hillsborough County, Florida" and published by the Florida Geological Survey as Report of Investigations No. 21. This report contains tables of well records that were compiled from data collected during that investigation. The well-numbering system used in the tables is based on latitude and longitude. (PDF contains 88 pages.)

Record of wells in Volusia County, Florida

A detailed study of the geology and ground-water resources of Volusia County, on the eastern coast of Florida (fig. 1), was made during the period 1953-57 by the U. S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Florida Geological Survey and the cities of Daytona Beach, New Smyrna Beach, and Port Orange. The results of this study have been published by the Florida Geological Survey in the following reports: Information Circular No. 8, entitled "Interim Report on Ground-Water Resources of Northeastern Part of Volusia County, Florida, " by Granville G. Wyrickand Willard P. Leutze;, and Report of Investigations No. 22, entitled "Ground-Water Resources of Volusia County, Florida, " by Granville G. Wyrick. This report contains a table of well records that was compiled from data collected during that investigation. longitude. (PDF contains 100 pages.)

Interim report on the hydrologic features of the Green Swamp area in Central Florida

The Green Swamp area in central Florida is another area where man is developing agricultural land from marginal land. Though the area is by no means as extensive as that of the Everglades, the present efforts for its development are similar to the early efforts for developing the Everglades in that many miles of canals and ditches have been constructed to improve the drainage. Lest the early mistakes of the Everglades be repeated, the Florida Department of Water Resources considered that an appraisal of the physical and hydrologic features of the area was needed to determine the broad effects of draining and developing the swamp. This reconnaissance provides information required by the State of Florida for determining its responsibility and policy in regard to the Green Swamp area and for formulating future plans for water management of the area. Some of the features that have been determined are: the amount of rainfall on the area; the pattern of surfacewater drainage; the amount and direction of surface-water runoff; the direction of ground-water movement; the interrelationship of rainfall, surface water, and ground water; the effects of improved drainage facilities'; and the effects of the hydrologic environment on the chemical quality of water of the area.(PDF contains 106 pages.)