Characterization of alluvial formation by stochastic modelling of paleo-fluvial processes: The concept and method

Modelling fluvial processes is an effective way to reproduce basin evolution and to recreate riverbed morphology. However, due to the complexity of alluvial environments, deterministic modelling of fluvial processes is often impossible. To address the related uncertainties, we derive a stochastic fluvial process model on the basis of the convective Exner equation that uses the statistics (mean and variance) of river velocity as input parameters. These statistics allow for quantifying the uncertainty in riverbed topography, river discharge and position of the river channel. In order to couple the velocity statistics and the fluvial process model, the perturbation method is employed with a non-stationary spectral approach to develop the Exner equation as two separate equations: the first one is the mean equation, which yields the mean sediment thickness, and the second one is the perturbation equation, which yields the variance of sediment thickness. The resulting solutions offer an effective tool to characterize alluvial aquifers resulting from fluvial processes, which allows incorporating the stochasticity of the paleoflow velocity.

Mathematical modelling of gas production and compositional shift of a CSG (coal seam gas) field: Local model development

In this work we discuss the development of a mathematical model to predict the shift in gas composition observed over time from a producing CSG (coal seam gas) well, and investigate the effect that physical properties of the coal seam have on gas production. A detailed (local) one-dimensional, two-scale mathematical model of a coal seam has been developed. The model describes the competitive adsorption and desorption of three gas species (CH4, CO2 and N2) within a microscopic, porous coal matrix structure. The (diffusive) flux of these gases between the coal matrices (microscale) and a cleat network (macroscale) is accounted for in the model. The cleat network is modelled as a one-dimensional, volume averaged, porous domain that extends radially from a central well. Diffusive and advective transport of the gases occurs within the cleat network, which also contains liquid water that can be advectively transported. The water and gas phases are assumed to be immiscible. The driving force for the advection in the gas and liquid phases is taken to be a pressure gradient with capillarity also accounted for. In addition, the relative permeabilities of the water and gas phases are considered as functions of the degree of water saturation.

Pedestrian Crashes in Ethiopia: Identification of contributing factors through modelling of exposure and road environment variables

Pedestrian safety is a critical issue in Ethiopia. Reports show that 50 to 60% of traffic fatality victims in the country are pedestrians. The primary aim of this research was to examine the possible causes of and contributing factors to crashes with pedestrians in Ethiopia, and improve pedestrian safety by recommending possible countermeasures. The secondary aim was to develop appropriate pedestrian crash models for two-way two-lane rural roads and roundabouts in the capital city of Ethiopia. This research uses quantitative methods throughout the process of the investigation. The research has applied various statistical methods. The results of this research support the idea that geometric and operational features have significant influence on pedestrian safety and crashes. Accordingly, policies and strategies are needed to safeguard pedestrians in Ethiopia.

Modelling ciphersuite and version negotiation in the TLS protocol

Real-world cryptographic protocols such as the widely used Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol support many different combinations of cryptographic algorithms (called ciphersuites) and simultaneously support different versions. Recent advances in provable security have shown that most modern TLS ciphersuites are secure authenticated and confidential channel establishment (ACCE) protocols, but these analyses generally focus on single ciphersuites in isolation. In this paper we extend the ACCE model to cover protocols with many different sub-protocols, capturing both multiple ciphersuites and multiple versions, and define a security notion for secure negotiation of the optimal sub-protocol. We give a generic theorem that shows how secure negotiation follows, with some additional conditions, from the authentication property of secure ACCE protocols. Using this framework, we analyse the security of ciphersuite and three variants of version negotiation in TLS, including a recently proposed mechanism for detecting fallback attacks.

Stone baby: An exploration of trembling and its potential for visual art

Informed by Kristeva's formulation of affect and Winnicott's Holding Environment, this practice-led visual art project is an exploration into how sensitivity to the physical sensation of trembling can sustain a creative practice. Building upon this is a further enquiry into what the significance of the affective experience of trembling is for an ethics of affect in contemporary art. I have done this through object and video-based installations informed by my own experience of trembling. This has been further informed by the work of artists like Louise Bourgeois, Dennis Del Favero and Willie Doherty. The creative outcomes contribute to the discourse around ethical responses to affect by extending and developing on the works of these artists.

Mentors and modelling primary science teaching practices

Introduction There are concerns about the science performance of Australian primary school students (Good rum, Hackling & Rennie, 2001), which requires a “major set of initiatives that focus on teacher beliefs and practices in the teaching and learning of science” (Sharpley, Tytler & Conley, 2000, p. 1). The science education community is calling for a “new approach” to science education in American schools, with an approach where a “mentor models, then coaches, then scaffolds, and then gradually fades scaffolding” (Barab & Hay, 2001, pp. 74, 90). The mentor, as modeller of practice, appears to be a key factor for enhancing science teaching, which may assist towards implementing science education reform

A Submission to the Inquiry into the Resale Royalty Right for Visual Artists Bill 2008 (Cth)

A right of resale, or droit de suite (a right to follow), is a legislative instrument under intellectual property law, which enables artists to receive a percentage of the sale price whenever artistic works are resold. A French legal scholar, Albert Vaunois, first articulated the need for a 'droit de suite' in connection with fine art back in 1893. The French Government introduced a scheme to protect the right of resale in 1920, after controversy over artists living in poverty, while public auction houses were profiting from the resale of their artistic creations. In the United States, there has been less support for a right of resale amongst legislatures. After lobbying from artists such as the king of pop art, Robert Rauschenberg, the state of California passed the Resale Royalties Act in 1977. At a Federal level, the United States Congress has shown some reluctance in providing national recognition for a right of resale in the United States. A number of other European countries have established a right of resale. In 2001, the European Council adopted the Artists' Resale directive and recognised that the 'artist's resale right forms an integral part of copyright and is an essential prerogative for authors.' In 2006, the United Kingdom promulgated regulations, giving effect to a right of resale in that jurisdiction. However, a number of Latin American and African countries have established a right of resale. The New Zealand Parliament has debated a bill on a right of resale.

Modelling of Electric Fields

South Africa has an electrical transmission grid of over 25 000 km of overhead power lines with voltages of 132 kV to 765 kV. The grid has been largely designed and built by the power utility, Eskom. This book embodies the planning philosophies, design principles and construction practices of Eskom. It is the culmination of decades of thought, study, research and the practical experience of many overhead power line engineers and researchers. The book covers the main aspects of overhead power line design and construction, from electrical first principles, system planning, insulation co-ordination (including live line working), mechanical design through to environmental impact management and power line communications. The content emphasises the need for close interaction between all technical disciplines involved and the importance of optimising designs for economy and performance. Additional challenges in South Africa are the relatively high altitude of the interior plateau (1 000 m to 1 700 m above sea level), severe lightning in some areas and long transmission distances. The book explains how these factors are accommodated in modern designs. Other advanced work covered includes the use and understanding of polymeric insulators, the judicious reduction of phase-to-phase spacings and the adoption of guyed structures.

Numerical modelling and design of unlined cold-formed steel wall frames

Cold-formed steel wall frame systems using lipped or unlipped C-sections and gypsum plasterboard lining are commonly utilised in the construction of both the load bearing and non-load bearing walls in the residential, commercial and industrial buildings. However, the structural behaviour of unlined and lined stud wall frames is not well understood and adequate design rules are not available. A detailed research program was therefore undertaken to investigate the behaviour of stud wall frame systems. As the first step in this research, the problem relating to the degree of end fixity of stud was investigated. The studs are usually connected to the top and bottom tracks and the degree of end fixity provided by these tracks is not adequately addressed by the design codes. A finite element model of unlined frames was therefore developed, and validated using full scale experimental results. It was then used in a detailed parametric study to develop appropriate design rules for unlined wall frames. This study has shown that by using appropriate effective length factors, the ultimate load and failure modes of the unlined studs can be accurately predicted using the provisions of Australian or American cold-formed steel structures design codes. This paper presents the details of the finite element analyses, the results and recommended design rules for unlined wall frames.

QoE modelling for VP9 and H.265 videos on mobile devices

Current mobile devices and streaming video services support high definition (HD) video, increasing expectation for more contents. HD video streaming generally requires large bandwidth, exerting pressures on existing networks. New generation of video compression codecs, such as VP9 and H.265/HEVC, are expected to be more effective for reducing bandwidth. Existing studies to measure the impact of its compression on users’ perceived quality have not been focused on mobile devices. Here we propose new Quality of Experience (QoE) models that consider both subjective and objective assessments of mobile video quality. We introduce novel predictors, such as the correlations between video resolution and size of coding unit, and achieve a high goodness-of-fit to the collected subjective assessment data (adjusted R-square >83%). The performance analysis shows that H.265 can potentially achieve 44% to 59% bit rate saving compared to H.264/AVC, slightly better than VP9 at 33% to 53%, depending on video content and resolution.

Blur, eye movements and performance on a driving visual recognition slide test

Purpose Optical blur and ageing are known to affect driving performance but their effects on drivers' eye movements are poorly understood. This study examined the effects of optical blur and age on eye movement patterns and performance on the DriveSafe slide recognition test which is purported to predict fitness to drive. Methods Twenty young (27.1 ± 4.6 years) and 20 older (73.3 ± 5.7 years) visually normal drivers performed the DriveSafe under two visual conditions: best-corrected vision and with +2.00 DS blur. The DriveSafe is a Visual Recognition Slide Test that consists of brief presentations of static, real-world driving scenes containing different road users (pedestrians, bicycles and vehicles). Participants reported the types, relative positions and direction of travel of the road users in each image; the score was the number of correctly reported items (maximum score of 128). Eye movements were recorded while participants performed the DriveSafe test using a Tobii TX300 eye tracking system. Results There was a significant main effect of blur on DriveSafe scores (best-corrected: 114.9 vs blur: 93.2; p < 0.001). There was also a significant age and blur interaction on the DriveSafe scores (p < 0.001) such that the young drivers were more negatively affected by blur than the older drivers (reductions of 22% and 13% respectively; p < 0.001): with best-corrected vision, the young drivers performed better than the older drivers (DriveSafe scores: 118.4 vs 111.5; p = 0.001), while with blur, the young drivers performed worse than the older drivers (88.6 vs 95.9; p = 0.009). For the eye movement patterns, blur significantly reduced the number of fixations on road users (best-corrected: 5.1 vs blur: 4.5; p < 0.001), fixation duration on road users (2.0 s vs 1.8 s; p < 0.001) and saccade amplitudes (7.4° vs 6.7°; p < 0.001). A main effect of age on eye movements was also found where older drivers made smaller saccades than the young drivers (6.7° vs 7.4°; p < 0.001). Conclusions Blur reduced DriveSafe scores for both age groups and this effect was greater for the young drivers. The decrease in number of fixations and fixation duration on road users, as well as the reduction in saccade amplitudes under the blurred condition, highlight the difficulty experienced in performing the task in the presence of optical blur, which suggests that uncorrected refractive errors may have a detrimental impact on aspects of driving performance.

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Visual openness in urban environments: Measuring visual openness and visibility to natural landscapes in a changing urban landscape in Gold Coast, Australia

The visual characteristics of urban environments have been changing dramatically with the growth of cities around the world. Protection and enhancement of landscape character in urban environments have been one of the challenges for policy makers in addressing sustainable urban growth. Visual openness and enclosure in urban environments are important attributes in perception of visual space which affect the human interaction with physical space and which can be often modified by new developments. Measuring visual openness in urban areas results in more accurate, reliable, and systematic approach to manage and control visual qualities in growing cities. Recent advances in techniques in geographic information systems (GIS) and survey systems make it feasible to measure and quantify this attribute with a high degree of realism and precision. Previous studies in this field do not take full advantage of these improvements. This paper proposes a method to measure the visual openness and enclosure in a changing urban landscape in Australia, on the Gold Coast, by using the improved functionality in GIS. Using this method, visual openness is calculated and described for all publicly accessible areas in the selected study area. A final map is produced which shows the areas with highest visual openness and visibility to natural landscape resources. The output of this research can be used by planners and decision-makers in managing and controlling views in complex urban landscapes. Also, depending on the availability of GIS data, this method can be applied to any region including non-urban landscapes to help planners and policy-makers manage views and visual qualities.

Recurrence risk modelling of the genetic susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis

Objectives - It has long been suspected that susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is influenced by genes lying distant to the major histocompatibility complex. This study compares genetic models of AS to assess the most likely mode of inheritance, using recurrence risk ratios in relatives of affected subjects. Methods - Recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives were determined using published data from studies specifically designed to address the question. The methods of Risch were used to determine the expected recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives, assuming equal first degree relative recurrence risk between models. Goodness of fit was determined by χ2 comparison of the expected number of affected subjects with the observed number, given equal numbers of each type of relative studied. Results - The recurrence risks in different degrees of relatives were: monozygotic (MZ) twins 63% (17/27), first degree relatives 8.2% (441/5390), second degree relatives 1.0% (8/834), and third degree relatives 0.7% (7/997). Parent-child recurrence risk (7.9%, 37/466) was not significantly different from the sibling recurrence risk (8.2%, 404/4924), excluding a significant dominance genetic component to susceptibility. Poor fitting models included single gene, genetic heterogeneity, additive, two locus multiplicative, and one locus and residual polygenes (χ2 > 32 (two degrees of freedom), p < 10-6 for all models). The best fitting model studied was a five locus model with multiplicative interaction between loci (χ2 = 1.4 (two degrees of freedom), p = 0.5). Oligogenic multiplicative models were the best fitting over a range of population prevalences and first degree recurrence risk rates. Conclusions - This study suggests that of the genetic models tested, the most likely model operating in AS is an oligogenic model with predominantly multiplicative interaction between loci.