An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines

Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

Caribbean regional report for the five-year review of the Mauritius strategy for the further implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the sustainable development of small island developing states (MSI +5)

The small island developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean referred to in this report comprise Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, The Netherlands Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States Virgin Islands. As far back as 1994, these countries expressed commitment to implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) for SIDS and have reiterated their support in making progress in achieving the targets set out in the Mauritius Strategy for further implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of SIDS (MSI).

Implementation of the 2014-2015 programme of work: subprogramme 13: subregional activities in the Caribbean

This report highlights the activities carried out by ECLAC in the Caribbean subregion between 1 January 2014 and 31 March 2015. Subprogramme 13 of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015 (“Subregional activities in the Caribbean”) covers the Commission’s work in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Anguilla, Aruba, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the United States Virgin Islands. Subprogramme 12 (“Subregional activities in Central America, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Mexico”) includes activities conducted in the Caribbean member States of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. In addition, countries of the Caribbean were included in activities organized under the 12 other substantive subprogrammes of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015, namely: (i) linkages with the global economy, integration and regional cooperation; (ii) production and innovation; (iii) macroeconomic policies and growth; (iv) financing for development; (v) social development and equality; (vi) mainstreaming the gender perspective in regional development; (vii) population and development; (viii) sustainable development and human settlements; (ix) natural resources and infrastructure; (x) planning of public administration; (xi) statistics; and (xii) support for regional and subregional integration and cooperation processes and organizations.

Home Cooking and Phenolics: Effect of Thermal Treatment and Addition of Extra Virgin Olive Oil on the Phenolic Profile of Tomato Sauces

Tomato products are a key component of the Mediterranean diet, which is strongly related to a reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The effect of cooking time (15, 30, 45, and 60 min) and the addition of extra virgin olive oil (5 and 10%) on the phenolic content of tomato sauces was monitored using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Concentration of phenolics in the tomato sauces decreased during the cooking process, with the exception of caffeic acid and tyrosol. The main degradation observed was the oxidation of quercetin, since the hydroxy-function at the C-ring of this flavonoid is not blocked by a sugar moiety, unlike rutin. Higher levels of virgin olive oil in tomato sauce seemed to enhance the extraction of phenolic compounds from the tomato, leading to higher phenolic contents in the sauces. Thus, the food matrix containing the phenolic compounds plays a crucial role in determining their accessibility.

Effects of plant regulators on the growth and flowering of Saint Augustine grass plants

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of three plant growth inhibitors on the development and emission of floral rachis of Saint Augustine grass [Stenotaphrum secundatum (Walt.) Kuntzel] plants. The study was carried out in a 15 month old lawn with the experimental plots being distributed in accordance with a complete randomized block design with four replications. The treatments consisted of sole application of trinexapac-ethyl (113, 226, 452, 678, and 904 g ai ha(-1)), prohexadione-calcium (100 and 200 g ai ha(-1)), and bispyribac-sodium (40 and 60 g ai ha(-1)) plus a check treatment in which the plants were not submitted to any of the plant growth inhibitors. The effects of those products were evaluated in terms of visual signs of plant intoxication, plant height, emission and height of floral rachises, and chip total dry matter production. All the plant growth inhibitors resulted in visible injury to the plants but these intoxication signs practically disappeared 28 days after the application. Trinexapac-ethyl at the dose of 904 g ai ha(-1) reduced plant height by 59.7%, the emission of floral rachis by 96.4%, and the amount of chip dry matter production by 87.7%. Plant growth inhibitors may reduce the number of times of lawn plants cutting up to 119 days after their application with no harmful effects on the plants visual aspect.

O fluxo da consciência em Ask the dust, de John Fante

The purpose of this research is to present de narrative techniques of the Stream of Consciousness in the novel Ask the dust, by American writer John Fante, as well as analyzing the technique applying it to the character/narrator Arturo Bandini. Among others, the emphasys was given to the interior monologue technique, for its large and intense use throughout the analyzed novel. This research was based specially on O Fluxo da consciência (1976), by Robert Humphrey, and Foco narrativo e fluxo da consciência (2012), de Alfredo Leme Coelho de Carvalho, both important researchers in the studied theme. This research, therefore, intends to demonstrate the geniality of the still little-known John Fante and point out the peculiarities of the so-called 'psychological fiction', that in the early 20th century united literature and psychology studies, becoming very popular in modern literature, with exponents like Virginia Woolf and James Joyce

Caridean Shrimps Associated with the Slimy Sea Plume (Pseudopterogorigia americana) in Midsummer at Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, West Indies

Fifty-one slimy sea plumes (Pseudopterogorgia americana Gmelin, 1791) were sampled for caridean shrimps at Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, during one week in July 1992. Sam- pling depth ranged from 3-22 m. Nine species were collected: Hippolyte nicholsoni Chace, 1972; Latreutes sp.; Neopontonides chacei Heard, 1986; Perclimenes cf. patae Heard and Spotte, 1991; Periclimenes cf. pauper Holthuis, 1951; Periclimenes sp.; Pseudocoutierea antillensis Chace, 1972; Tozeuma cf. cornutum Milne Edwards, 1881; and Trachycaris rugosa (Bate, 1888). A total of 1,418 specimens (including fragments) was obtained. The number of shrimp species per gorgonian ranged from 1-5; one gorgonian harbored 156 shrimps. The two predominant species, N. chacei and H. nicholsoni, occupy different mean depths (12.6 and 8.2 m, respectively). Sexual dimorphism assessed with Mann-Whitney U-tests was not apparent in the specimens of N. chacei (P > 0.05), but females of H. nicholsoni were significantly larger than males (P < 0.001). Minimum carapace length (CL, the tip of the rostrum to the posterior dorsal margin of the carapace) at which male N. chacei acquire a single appendix masculina spine is 1.25 mm; male H. nicholsoni can acquire a single spine at 0.9 mm CL. Histological sections of male N. chacei showed that shrimp with 0 or 1 spine are least likely to be mature. Female N. chacei can become ovigerous at 1.9 mm CL and female H. nicholsoni at 1.2 mm CL. The taxonomic status of 5 of the 9 species collected is uncertain.

O fluxo da consciência em Ask the dust, de John Fante

The purpose of this research is to present de narrative techniques of the Stream of Consciousness in the novel Ask the dust, by American writer John Fante, as well as analyzing the technique applying it to the character/narrator Arturo Bandini. Among others, the emphasys was given to the interior monologue technique, for its large and intense use throughout the analyzed novel. This research was based specially on O Fluxo da consciência (1976), by Robert Humphrey, and Foco narrativo e fluxo da consciência (2012), de Alfredo Leme Coelho de Carvalho, both important researchers in the studied theme. This research, therefore, intends to demonstrate the geniality of the still little-known John Fante and point out the peculiarities of the so-called 'psychological fiction', that in the early 20th century united literature and psychology studies, becoming very popular in modern literature, with exponents like Virginia Woolf and James Joyce

La huella lingüística de John Caius en "A counseil against the sweat". Estudio y edición

Programa de doctorado: Estudios interdisciplinares de lengua, literatura, cultura, traducción y tradición clásica

Valorization of pomaces from the mechanical extraction of virgin olive oils in dairy animal feeding

This research work is aimed at the valorization of two types of pomace deriving from the extra virgin olive oil mechanical extraction process, such as olive pomace and a new by-product named “paté”, in the livestock sector as important sources of antioxidants and unsaturated fatty acids. In the first research the suitability of dried stoned olive pomace as a dietary supplement for dairy buffaloes was evaluated. The effectiveness of this utilization in modifying fatty acid composition and improving the oxidative stability of buffalo milk and mozzarella cheese have been proven by means of the analysis of qualitative and quantitative parameters. In the second research the use of paté as a new by-product in dietary feed supplementation for dairy ewes, already fed with a source of unsaturated fatty acids such as extruded linseed, was studied in order to assess the effect of this combination on the dairy products obtained. The characterization of paté as a new by-product was also carried out, studying the optimal conditions of its stabilization and preservation at the same time. The main results, common to both researches, have been the detection and the characterization of hydrophilic phenols in the milk. The analytical detection of hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol in the ewes’ milk fed with the paté and hydroxytyrosol in buffalo fed with pomace showed for the first time the presence in the milk of hydroxytyrosol, which is one of the most important bioactive compounds of the oil industry products; the transfer of these antioxidants and the proven improvement of the quality of milk fat could positively interact in the prevention of some human cardiovascular diseases and some tumours, increasing in this manner the quality of dairy products, also improving their shelf-life. These results also provide important information on the bioavailability of these phenolic compounds.