Boron isotope and B/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera

Here a new analytical methodology is described for measuring the isotopic composition of boron in foraminifera using multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS). This new approach is fast (~10 samples analysed in duplicate per analytical session) and accurate (to better than 0.25 per mil at 95% confidence) with acceptable sample size requirements (1-3 mg of carbonate). A core top calibration of several common planktic and two benthic species from geographically widespread localities shows a very close agreement between the isotopic composition measured by MC-ICPMS and the isotopic composition of B(OH)-4 in seawater (as predicted using the recently measured isotopic equilibrium factor of 1.0272) at the depth of habitat. A down core and core top investigation of boron concentration (B/Ca ratio) shows that the partition coefficient is influenced by [CO2-3] complicating the application of this proxy. Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that these two proxies can be used to fully constrain the carbonate system of surface water in the Caribbean Sea (ODP Site 999A) over the last 130 kyr. This reconstruction shows that during much of the Holocene and the last interglacial period surface water at Site 999A was in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. During the intervening colder periods although the surface water pCO2 was lower than the Holocene, it was a minor to significant source of CO2 to the atmosphere possibly due to either an expansion of the eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling zone, or a more local expansion of coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean. Such reorganisation of the oceanic carbonate system in favour of a larger source of CO2 to the atmosphere from the equatorial ocean may require mechanisms responsible for lowering atmospheric CO2 during glacial periods to be more efficient than previously supposed.

Biogenic opal, biogenic barium, calcium carbonate and U/Th isotope data from core-top sediments of SONNE cruise SO202 (INOPEX)

Sedimentary proxies used to reconstruct marine productivity suffer from variable preservation and are sensitive to factors other than productivity. Therefore, proxy calibration is warranted. Here we map the spatial patterns of two paleoproductivity proxies, biogenic opal and barium fluxes, from a set of core-top sediments recovered in the Subarctic North Pacific. Comparisons of the proxy data with independent estimates of primary and export production, surface water macronutrient concentrations and biological pCO2 drawdown indicate that neither proxy shows a significant correlation with primary or export productivity for the entire region. Biogenic opal fluxes, when corrected for preservation using 230Th-normalized accumulation rates, show a good correlation with primary productivity along the volcanic arcs (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0024) and with export productivity throughout the western Subarctic North Pacific (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0107). Moderate and good correlations of biogenic barium flux with export production (tau = 0.57, p = 0.0022) and with surface water silicate concentrations (tau = 0.70, p = 0.0002) are observed for the central and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. For reasons unknown, however, no correlation is found in the western Subarctic North Pacific between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Nonetheless, we show that barite saturation, uncertainty in the lithogenic barium corrections and problems with the reference datasets are not responsible for the lack of a significant correlation between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Further studies evaluating the factors controlling the variability of the biogenic constituents in the sediments are desirable in this region.

RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

A novel framework for predicting patients at risk of readmission

Uncertainty in decision-making for patients’ risk of re-admission arises due to non-uniform data and lack of knowledge in health system variables. The knowledge of the impact of risk factors will provide clinicians better decision-making and in reducing the number of patients admitted to the hospital. Traditional approaches are not capable to account for the uncertain nature of risk of hospital re-admissions. More problems arise due to large amount of uncertain information. Patients can be at high, medium or low risk of re-admission, and these strata have ill-defined boundaries. We believe that our model that adapts fuzzy regression method will start a novel approach to handle uncertain data, uncertain relationships between health system variables and the risk of re-admission. Because of nature of ill-defined boundaries of risk bands, this approach does allow the clinicians to target individuals at boundaries. Targeting individuals at boundaries and providing them proper care may provide some ability to move patients from high risk to low risk band. In developing this algorithm, we aimed to help potential users to assess the patients for various risk score thresholds and avoid readmission of high risk patients with proper interventions. A model for predicting patients at high risk of re-admission will enable interventions to be targeted before costs have been incurred and health status have deteriorated. A risk score cut off level would flag patients and result in net savings where intervention costs are much higher per patient. Preventing hospital re-admissions is important for patients, and our algorithm may also impact hospital income.

Incertidumbre y actitudes pro-redistributivas: mercados de trabajo y modelos de bienestar en Europa

La articulación entre las políticas de empleo y las políticas sociales condicionan la percepción subjetiva de incertidumbre los individuos. El modelo de mercado laboral tiene un peso determinante en la percepción de incertidumbre. El empleo en sí mismo ya no es suficiente garantía de ingresos seguros. El empleo a tiempo parcial y los contratos temporales generan una creciente demanda de políticas de redistribución de los ingresos en los países del Sur y Este de Europa. En los países escandinavos los mismos tipos de contratos laborales generan menos desigualdad porque el empleo público contribuye a generar un “círculo virtuoso” que favorece las políticas de igualdad y la conciliación entre la vida laboral y familiar. A nivel individual las actitudes pro-redistributivas las impulsan las mujeres, aquellas personas con incertidumbre en sus ingresos económicos y con bajo nivel de estudios. Por el contrario, quienes más confían en el éxito individual y el mérito son los jóvenes con estudios universitarios y aquellos que perciben ingresos económicos altos.

La incertidumbre amorosa contemporánea. Estrategias de los jóvenes

Este artículo explora las fuentes de incertidumbre en la experiencia contemporánea del amor y las estrategias que los jóvenes españoles ponen en práctica para afrontarla. Para ello, se utiliza el material empírico obtenido a través de la realización de 31 entrevistas en profundidad a adultos jóvenes entre 25 y 35 años de edad, residentes en Madrid. Su análisis ha permitido identificar una serie de estrategias que apuntan hacia la extensión de cierta “normatividad de la cautela” en la experiencia de los vínculos amorosos: a) La “disciplina emocional” para controlar la imagen que se otorga de los propios sentimientos, b) la concatenación de emparejamientos, c) la priorización del propio “yo” en las expectativas y d) la búsqueda de fórmulas alternativas al modelo de pareja monógama tradicional. Se analiza, además, cómo cada una de estas estrategias se hace plausible en función de determinados contextos y posiciones de clase y género.

The VLT-FLAMES tarantula survey:X. Evidence for a bimodal distribution of rotational velocities for the single early B-type stars

Aims. Projected rotational velocities (ve sin i) have been estimated for 334 targets in the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey that do not manifest significant radial velocity variations and are not supergiants. They have spectral types from approximately O9.5 to B3. The estimates have been analysed to infer the underlying rotational velocity distribution, which is critical for understanding the evolution of massive stars. Methods. Projected rotational velocities were deduced from the Fourier transforms of spectral lines, with upper limits also being obtained from profile fitting. For the narrower lined stars, metal and non-diffuse helium lines were adopted, and for the broader lined stars, both non-diffuse and diffuse helium lines; the estimates obtained using the different sets of lines are in good agreement. The uncertainty in the mean estimates is typically 4% for most targets. The iterative deconvolution procedure of Lucy has been used to deduce the probability density distribution of the rotational velocities. Results. Projected rotational velocities range up to approximately 450 kms-1 and show a bi-modal structure. This is also present in the inferred rotational velocity distribution with 25% of the sample having 0 <ve <100 km s^-1 and the high velocity component having v_e ∼ 250 km s^-1. There is no evidence from the spatial and radial velocity distributions of the two components that they represent either field and cluster populations or different episodes of star formation. Be-type stars have also been identified. Conclusions. The bi-modal rotational velocity distribution in our sample resembles that found for late-B and early-A type stars.While magnetic braking appears to be a possible mechanism for producing the low-velocity component, we can not rule out alternative explanations. © ESO 2013.

Enteric methane emissions and nitrogen utilisation efficiency for two genotype of hill hoggets offered fresh, ensiled and pelleted ryegrass

Thirty-six 12-month-old hill hoggets were used in a 2 genotype (18 Scottish Blackface vs. 18 Swaledale×Scottish Blackface)×3 diet (fresh vs. ensiled vs. pelleted ryegrass) factorial design experiment to evaluate the effects of hogget genotype and forage type on enteric methane (CH4) emissions and nitrogen (N) utilisation. The hoggets were offered 3 diets ad libitum with no concentrate supplementation in a single period study with 6 hoggets for each of the 6 genotype×diet combinations (n=6). Fresh ryegrass was harvested daily in the morning. Pelleted ryegrass was sourced from a commercial supplier (Aylescott Driers & Feeds, Burrington, UK) and the ryegrass silage was ensiled with Ecosyl (Lactobacillus plantarum, Volac International Limited, Hertfordshire, UK) as an additive. The hoggets were housed in individual pens for at least 14 d before being transferred to individual respiration chambers for a further 4 d with feed intake, faeces and urine outputs and CH4 emissions measured. There was no significant interaction between genotype and forage type on any parameter evaluated. Sheep offered pelleted grass had greater feed intake (e.g. DM, energy and N) but less energy and nutrient apparent digestibility (e.g. DM, N and neutral detergent fibre (NDF)) than those given fresh grass or grass silage (P<0.001). Feeding pelleted grass, rather than fresh grass or grass silage, reduced enteric CH4 emissions as a proportion of DM intake and gross energy (GE) intake (P<0.01). Sheep offered fresh grass had a significantly lower acid detergent fibre (ADF) apparent digestibility, and CH4 energy output (CH4-E) as a proportion of GE intake than those offered grass silage (P<0.001). There was no significant difference, in CH4 emission rate or N utilisation efficiency when compared between Scottish Blackface and Swaledale × Scottish Blackface. Linear and multiple regression techniques were used to develop relationships between CH4 emissions or N excretion and dietary and animal variables using data from sheep offered fresh ryegrass and grass silage. The equation relating CH4-E (MJ/d) to GE intake (GEI, MJ/d), energy apparent digestibility (DE/GE) and metabolisability (ME/GE) resulted in a high r2 (CH4-E=0.074 GEI+9.2 DE/GE−10.2 ME/GE−0.37, r2=0.93). N intake (NI) was the best predictor for manure N excretion (Manure N=0.66 NI+0.96, r2=0.85). The use of these relationships can potentially improve the precision and decrease the uncertainty in predicting CH4 emissions and N excretion for sheep production systems managed under the current feeding conditions.

An on-line application for ΔR calculation

A regional offset (ΔR) from the marine radiocarbon calibration curve is widely used in calibration software (eg CALIB, OxCal) but often is not calculated correctly. While relatively straightforward for known age samples, such as mollusks from museum collections or banded corals, it is more difficult to calculate ΔR and the uncertainty in ΔR for 14C dates on paired marine and terrestrial samples. Previous researchers have often utilized classical intercept methods (Reimer et al. 2002; Dewar et al. 2012, Russell et al. 2011) but this does not account for the full calibrated probability density function (PDF). We have developed an on-line application for performing these calculations for known age, paired marine and terrestrial 14C dates, or U-Th dated corals which is available at http://calib.qub.ac.uk/deltar

Cabazitaxel for Hormone-Relapsed Metastatic Prostate Cancer Previously Treated With a Docetaxel-Containing Regimen: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

As part of its single technology appraisal (STA) process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures cabazitaxel (Jevtana(®), Sanofi, UK) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of cabazitaxel for treatment of patients with metastatic hormone-relapsed prostate cancer (mHRPC) previously treated with a docetaxel-containing regimen. The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology based upon the company's submission to NICE. Clinical evidence for cabazitaxel was derived from a multinational randomised open-label phase III trial (TROPIC) of cabazitaxel plus prednisone or prednisolone compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone or prednisolone, which was assumed to represent best supportive care. The NICE final scope identified a further three comparators: abiraterone in combination with prednisone or prednisolone; enzalutamide; and radium-223 dichloride for the subgroup of people with bone metastasis only (no visceral metastasis). The company did not consider radium-223 dichloride to be a relevant comparator. Neither abiraterone nor enzalutamide has been directly compared in a trial with cabazitaxel. Instead, clinical evidence was synthesised within a network meta-analysis (NMA). Results from TROPIC showed that cabazitaxel was associated with a statistically significant improvement in both overall survival and progression-free survival compared with mitoxantrone. Results from a random-effects NMA, as conducted by the company and updated by the ERG, indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the three active treatments for both overall survival and progression-free survival. Utility data were not collected as part of the TROPIC trial, and were instead taken from the company's UK early access programme. Evidence on resource use came from the TROPIC trial, supplemented by both expert clinical opinion and a UK clinical audit. List prices were used for mitoxantrone, abiraterone and enzalutamide as directed by NICE, although commercial in-confidence patient-access schemes (PASs) are in place for abiraterone and enzalutamide. The confidential PAS was used for cabazitaxel. Sequential use of the advanced hormonal therapies (abiraterone and enzalutamide) does not usually occur in clinical practice in the UK. Hence, cabazitaxel could be used within two pathways of care: either when an advanced hormonal therapy was used pre-docetaxel, or when one was used post-docetaxel. The company believed that the former pathway was more likely to represent standard National Health Service (NHS) practice, and so their main comparison was between cabazitaxel and mitoxantrone, with effectiveness data from the TROPIC trial. Results of the company's updated cost-effectiveness analysis estimated a probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £45,982 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, which the committee considered to be the most plausible value for this comparison. Cabazitaxel was estimated to be both cheaper and more effective than abiraterone. Cabazitaxel was estimated to be cheaper but less effective than enzalutamide, resulting in an ICER of £212,038 per QALY gained for enzalutamide compared with cabazitaxel. The ERG noted that radium-223 is a valid comparator (for the indicated sub-group), and that it may be used in either of the two care pathways. Hence, its exclusion leads to uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results. In addition, the company assumed that there would be no drug wastage when cabazitaxel was used, with cost-effectiveness results being sensitive to this assumption: modelling drug wastage increased the ICER comparing cabazitaxel with mitoxantrone to over £55,000 per QALY gained. The ERG updated the company's NMA and used a random effects model to perform a fully incremental analysis between cabazitaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide and best supportive care using PASs for abiraterone and enzalutamide. Results showed that both cabazitaxel and abiraterone were extendedly dominated by the combination of best supportive care and enzalutamide. Preliminary guidance from the committee, which included wastage of cabazitaxel, did not recommend its use. In response, the company provided both a further discount to the confidential PAS for cabazitaxel and confirmation from NHS England that it is appropriate to supply and purchase cabazitaxel in pre-prepared intravenous-infusion bags, which would remove the cost of drug wastage. As a result, the committee recommended use of cabazitaxel as a treatment option in people with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1 whose disease had progressed during or after treatment with at least 225 mg/m(2) of docetaxel, as long as it was provided at the discount agreed in the PAS and purchased in either pre-prepared intravenous-infusion bags or in vials at a reduced price to reflect the average per-patient drug wastage.

Värdering av kriterier vid stora investeringar : En jämförelse mellan olika intressenters uppskattningar av kriterier

In what way does different stakeholders assess a decision and its consequences, and how do these assessments differ? When a company stands before a big decision, they need to consider aspects that are economic, ecologic and social. To make a good decision they need to consider the society and its different stakeholder groups. This study examined how different groups values and weights different criteria. The study has been done with the project Sundsvall logistics park as a case, with criteria related to that project. The goal of the study was to find a way to value and weight different criteria and then compare how the company and the stakeholders assesses these criteria. This has been done through interviews with relevant people that has got extra knowledge about the project Sundsvall logistics park, and through a survey that has been sent out to residents of Sundsvall. The informants and respondents got to assess values and weights to the criteria relative to an indirect alternative where the logistics park isn’t built. The data was then compiled using multi attribute utility theory as a tool to present the comparison. The result of the study suggests that the differences between the valuations and weightings of the criteria is partly due to an uncertainty in how the logistics park would affect the criteria, but that the biggest reason probably depends on what perspective the person is viewing the logistics park from. If the person is viewing the logistics park from an industrial perspective, the criteria related to industrial development is getting more important and is going to take up more room in the analysis. If the person is viewing the logistics park from an individual and social perspective, the criteria related to that is more important and takes up more room in the analysis.

Understanding COPD: A Vision on Phenotypes, Comorbidities and Treatment Approach

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) phenotypes have become increasingly recognized as important for grouping patients with similar presentation and/or behavior, within the heterogeneity of the disease. The primary aim of identifying phenotypes is to provide patients with the best health care possible, tailoring the therapeutic approach to each patient. However, the identification of specific phenotypes has been hindered by several factors such as which specific attributes are relevant, which discriminant features should be used for assigning patients to specific phenotypes, and how relevant are they to the therapeutic approach, prognostic and clinical outcome. Moreover, the definition of phenotype is still not consensual. Comorbidities, risk factors, modifiable risk factors and disease severity, although not phenotypes, have impact across all COPD phenotypes. Although there are some identified phenotypes that are fairly consensual, many others have been proposed, but currently lack validation. The on-going debate about which instruments and tests should be used in the identification and definition of phenotypes has contributed to this uncertainty. In this paper, the authors review present knowledge regarding COPD phenotyping, discuss the role of phenotypes and comorbidities on the severity of COPD, propose new phenotypes and suggest a phenotype-based pharmacological therapeutic approach. The authors conclude that a patient-tailored treatment approach, which takes into account each patient's specific attributes and specificities, should be pursued.

Caractérisation et optimisation d'un détecteur à scintillation à 2 points

Ce projet de recherche s’inscrit dans le domaine de la dosimétrie à scintillation en radiothérapie, plus précisément en curiethérapie à haut débit de dose (HDR). Lors de ce type de traitement, la dose est délivrée localement, ce qui implique de hauts gradients de dose autour de la source. Le but de ce travail est d’obtenir un détecteur mesurant la dose en 2 points distincts et optimisé pour la mesure de dose en curiethérapie HDR. Pour ce faire, le projet de recherche est séparé en deux études : la caractérisation spectrale du détecteur à 2-points et la caractérisation du système de photodétecteur menant à la mesure de la dose. D’abord, la chaine optique d’un détecteur à scintillation à 2-points est caractérisée à l’aide d’un spectromètre afin de déterminer les composantes scintillantes optimales. Cette étude permet de construire quelques détecteurs à partir des composantes choisies pour ensuite les tester avec le système de photodétecteur multi-point. Le système de photodétecteur est aussi caractérisé de façon à évaluer les limites de sensibilité pour le détecteur 2-points choisi précédemment. L’objectif final est de pouvoir mesurer le débit de dose avec précision et justesse aux deux points de mesure du détecteur multi-point lors d’un traitement de curiethérapie HDR.

Investigating Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Budgets and Variability

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Breaking Waves on the Ocean Surface

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08