Novel sequential methods in dose-finding designs : extensions of the continual reassessment method

Dose-finding trials are a form of clinical data collection process in which the primary objective is to estimate an optimum dose of an investigational new drug when given to a patient. This thesis develops and explores three novel dose-finding design methodologies. All design methodologies presented in this thesis are pragmatic. They use statistical models, incorporate clinicians' prior knowledge efficiently, and prematurely stop a trial for safety or futility reasons. Designing actual dose-finding trials using these methodologies will minimize practical difficulties, improve efficiency of dose estimation, be flexible to stop early and reduce possible patient discomfort or harm.

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes - an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes is important to site-specific planning for improving grassland and environmental management over large areas. In this study, a climate-based grassland classification model, the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) was integrated with spatially interpolated climate data to classify grassland in Gansu province, China. The study area is characterized by complex topographic features imposed by plateaus, high mountains, basins and deserts. To improve the quality of the interpolated climate data and the quality of the spatial classification over this complex topography, three linear regression methods, namely an analytic method based on multiple regression and residues (AMMRR), a modification of the AMMRR method through adding the effect of slope and aspect to the interpolation analysis (M-AMMRR) and a method which replaces the IDW approach for residue interpolation in M-AMMRR with an ordinary kriging approach (I-AMMRR), for interpolating climate variables were evaluated. The interpolation outcomes from the best interpolation method were then used in the CSCS model to classify the grassland in the study area. Climate variables interpolated included the annual cumulative temperature and annual total precipitation. The results indicated that the AMMRR and M-AMMRR methods generated acceptable climate surfaces but the best model fit and cross validation result were achieved by the I-AMMRR method. Twenty-six grassland classes were classified for the study area. The four grassland vegetation classes that covered more than half of the total study area were "cool temperate-arid temperate zonal semi-desert", "cool temperate-humid forest steppe and deciduous broad-leaved forest", "temperate-extra-arid temperate zonal desert", and "frigid per-humid rain tundra and alpine meadow". The vegetation classification map generated in this study provides spatial information on the locations and extents of the different grassland classes. This information can be used to facilitate government agencies' decision-making in land-use planning and environmental management, and for vegetation and biodiversity conservation. The information can also be used to assist land managers in the estimation of safe carrying capacities which will help to prevent overgrazing and land degradation.

Identifying the Events That Connect Social Media Users : Charting Follower Accession on Twitter

Twitter is the focus of much research attention, both in traditional academic circles and in commercial market and media research, as analytics give increasing insight into the performance of the platform in areas as diverse as political communication, crisis management, television audiencing and other industries. While methods for tracking Twitter keywords and hashtags have developed apace and are well documented, the make-up of the Twitter user base and its evolution over time have been less understood to date. Recent research efforts have taken advantage of functionality provided by Twitter's Application Programming Interface to develop methodologies to extract information that allows us to understand the growth of Twitter, its geographic spread and the processes by which particular Twitter users have attracted followers. From politicians to sporting teams, and from YouTube personalities to reality television stars, this technique enables us to gain an understanding of what prompts users to follow others on Twitter. This article outlines how we came upon this approach, describes the method we adopted to produce accession graphs and discusses their use in Twitter research. It also addresses the wider ethical implications of social network analytics, particularly in the context of a detailed study of the Twitter user base.

An intuitive multi-touch surface and gesture based interaction for video surveillance systems

This paper discusses the idea and demonstrates an early prototype of a novel method of interacting with security surveillance footage using natural user interfaces in place of traditional mouse and keyboard interaction. Current surveillance monitoring stations and systems provide the user with a vast array of video feeds from multiple locations on a video wall, relying on the user’s ability to distinguish locations of the live feeds from experience or list based key-value pair of location and camera IDs. During an incident, this current method of interaction may cause the user to spend increased amounts time obtaining situational and location awareness, which is counter-productive. The system proposed in this paper demonstrates how a multi-touch screen and natural interaction can enable the surveillance monitoring station users to quickly identify the location of a security camera and efficiently respond to an incident.

Rediscovering the double Friedel-Crafts acylation : an expedient entry to phenanthrene-9,10-diones

The double Friedel–Crafts acylation of readily accessible biaryls with oxalyl chloride delivers the respective phenanthrene-9,10-diones, providing an alternative to the traditional methods, which require harsh oxidizing conditions and multistep sequences. This simple method allows the synthesis of various symmetrical and non-symmetrical targets, and is even effective for the synthesis of the parent ring system from (unactivated) biphenyl.

Higher uptake of long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception by Australian women living in rural and remote areas

Objectives: To examine factors associated with the uptake of i) long-acting reversible, ii) permanent and iii) traditional contraceptive methods among Australian women. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1973–78 reported on their contraceptive use at three surveys: 2003, 2006 and 2009. The participants were 5,849 women aged 25–30 in 2003 randomly sampled from Medicare. The main outcome measure was current contraceptive method at age 28–33 years categorised as long-acting reversible methods (implant, IUD, injection), permanent (tubal ligation, vasectomy), and traditional methods (oral contraceptive pills, condoms, withdrawal, safe period). Results: Compared to women living in major cities, women in inner regional areas were more likely to use long-acting (OR=1.26, 95%CI 1.03–1.55) or permanent methods (OR=1.43, 95%CI 1.17–1.76). Women living in outer regional/remote areas were more likely than women living in cities to use long-acting (OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.31–2.08) or permanent methods (OR=1.69, 95%CI 1.43–2.14). Conclusions: Location of residence is an important factor in women's choices about long-acting and permanent contraception in addition to the number and age of their children. Implications: Further research is needed to understand the role of geographical location in women's access to contraceptive options in Australia.

An efficient and effective localization method for networked disjoint top-view cameras

Disjoint top-view networked cameras are among the most commonly utilized networks in many applications. One of the open questions for these cameras' study is the computation of extrinsic parameters (positions and orientations), named extrinsic calibration or localization of cameras. Current approaches either rely on strict assumptions of the object motion for accurate results or fail to provide results of high accuracy without the requirement of the object motion. To address these shortcomings, we present a location-constrained maximum a posteriori (LMAP) approach by applying known locations in the surveillance area, some of which would be passed by the object opportunistically. The LMAP approach formulates the problem as a joint inference of the extrinsic parameters and object trajectory based on the cameras' observations and the known locations. In addition, a new task-oriented evaluation metric, named MABR (the Maximum value of All image points' Back-projected localization errors' L2 norms Relative to the area of field of view), is presented to assess the quality of the calibration results in an indoor object tracking context. Finally, results herein demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art algorithm based on the presented MABR and classical evaluation metric in simulations and real experiments.

Enrichment, distribution and sources of heavy metals in the sediments of Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia

Sediment samples from 13 sampling sites in Deception Bay, Australia were analysed for the presence of heavy metals. Enrichment factors, modified contamination indices and Nemerow pollution indices were calculated for each sampling site to determine sediment quality. The results indicate significant pollution of most sites by lead (average enrichment factor (EF) of 13), but there is also enrichment of arsenic (average EF 2.3), zinc (average EF 2.7) and other heavy metals. The modified degree of contamination indices (average 1.0) suggests that there is little contamination. By contrast, the Nemerow pollution index (average 5.8) suggests that Deception Bay is heavily contaminated. Cluster analysis was undertaken to identify groups of elements. Strong correlation between some elements and two distinct clusters of sampling sites based on sediment type was evident. These results have implications for pollution in complex marine environments where there is significant influx of sand and sediment into an estuarine environment.

A sub‒domain smoothed Galerkin method for solid mechanics problems

A sub‒domain smoothed Galerkin method is proposed to integrate the advantages of mesh‒free Galerkin method and FEM. Arbitrarily shaped sub‒domains are predefined in problems domain with mesh‒free nodes. In each sub‒domain, based on mesh‒free Galerkin weak formulation, the local discrete equation can be obtained by using the moving Kriging interpolation, which is similar to the discretization of the high‒order finite elements. Strain smoothing technique is subsequently applied to the nodal integration of sub‒domain by dividing the sub‒domain into several smoothing cells. Moreover, condensation of DOF can also be introduced into the local discrete equations to improve the computational efficiency. The global governing equations of present method are obtained on the basis of the scheme of FEM by assembling all local discrete equations of the sub‒domains. The mesh‒free properties of Galerkin method are retained in each sub‒domain. Several 2D elastic problems have been solved on the basis of this newly proposed method to validate its computational performance. These numerical examples proved that the newly proposed sub‒domain smoothed Galerkin method is a robust technique to solve solid mechanics problems based on its characteristics of high computational efficiency, good accuracy, and convergence.

Health monitoring of short-and medium-spen bridges using an improved modal strain energy method

Increasing the importance and use of infrastructures such as bridges, demands more effective structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. SHM has well addressed the damage detection issues through several methods such as modal strain energy (MSE). Many of the available MSE methods either have been validated for limited type of structures such as beams or their performance is not satisfactory. Therefore, it requires a further improvement and validation of them for different types of structures. In this study, an MSE method was mathematically improved to precisely quantify the structural damage at an early stage of formation. Initially, the MSE equation was accurately formulated considering the damaged stiffness and then it was used for derivation of a more accurate sensitivity matrix. Verification of the improved method was done through two plane structures: a steel truss bridge and a concrete frame bridge models that demonstrate the framework of a short- and medium-span of bridge samples. Two damage scenarios including single- and multiple-damage were considered to occur in each structure. Then, for each structure, both intact and damaged, modal analysis was performed using STRAND7. Effects of up to 5 per cent noise were also comprised. The simulated mode shapes and natural frequencies derived were then imported to a MATLAB code. The results indicate that the improved method converges fast and performs well in agreement with numerical assumptions with few computational cycles. In presence of some noise level, it performs quite well too. The findings of this study can be numerically extended to 2D infrastructures particularly short- and medium-span bridges to detect the damage and quantify it more accurately. The method is capable of providing a proper SHM that facilitates timely maintenance of bridges to minimise the possible loss of lives and properties.

A simple method for EPID-based in vivo dosimetry for radiotherapy treatments of head-and-neck cancers

This study used a homogeneous water-equivalent model of an electronic portal imaging device (EPID), contoured as a structure in a radiotherapy treatment plan, to produce reference dose images for comparison with in vivo EPID dosimetry images. Head and neck treatments were chosen as the focus of this study, due to the heterogeneous anatomies involved and the consequent difficulty of rapidly obtaining reliable reference dose images by other means. A phantom approximating the size and heterogeneity of a typical neck, with a maximum radiological thickness of 8.5 cm, was constructed for use in this study. This phantom was CT scanned and a simple treatment including five square test fields and one off-axis IMRT field was planned. In order to allow the treatment planning system to calculate dose in a model EPID positioned a distance downstream from the phantom to achieve a source-to-detector distance (SDD) of 150 cm, the CT images were padded with air and the phantom’s “body” contour was extended to encompass the EPID contour. Comparison of dose images obtained from treatment planning calculations and experimental irradiations showed good agreement, with more than 90% of points in all fields passing a gamma evaluation, at γ (3%, 3mm )Similar agreement was achieved when the phantom was over-written with air in the treatment plan and removed from the experimental beam, suggesting that water EPID model at 150 cm SDD is capable of providing accurate reference images for comparison with clinical IMRT treatment images, for patient anatomies with radiological thicknesses ranging from 0 up to approximately 9 cm. This methodology therefore has the potential to be used for in vivo dosimetry during treatments to tissues in the neck as well as the oral and nasal cavities, in the head-and-neck region.

A method for risk analysis across governance systems : a great barrier reef case study

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering sound environmental management outcomes from global to local scales. There are, however, surprisingly few risk assessment methods that can pinpoint those domains and sub-domains within governance systems that are most likely to influence good environmental outcomes at any particular scale, or those if absent or dysfunctional, most likely to prevent effective environmental management. This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for analysing governance systems. This method is then tested through its preliminary application to a significant real-world context: governance as it relates to the health of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The GBR exists at a supra-regional scale along most of the north eastern coast of Australia. Brodie et al (2012 Mar. Pollut. Bull. 65 81-100) have recently reviewed the state and trend of the health of the GBR, finding that overall trends remain of significant concern. At the same time, official international concern over the governance of the reef has recently been signalled globally by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These environmental and political contexts make the GBR an ideal candidate for use in testing and reviewing the application of improved tools for governance risk assessment. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Hybrid genetic algorithm for elimination of severe stress concentration in railhead ends

This paper presents a computational method for eliminating severe stress concentration at the unsupported railhead ends in rail joints through innovative shape optimization of the contact zone, which is complex due to near field nonlinear contact. With a view to minimizing the computational efforts, hybrid genetic algorithm method coupled with parametric finite element has been developed and compared with the traditional genetic algorithm (GA). The shape of railhead top surface where the wheel contacts nonlinearly was optimized using the hybridized GA method. Comparative study of the optimal result and the search efficiency between the traditional and hybrid GA methods has shown that the hybridized GA provides the optimal shape in fewer computational cycles without losing accuracy. The method will be beneficial to solving complex engineering problems involving contact nonlinearity.

A meshfree-based local Galerkin method with condensation of degree of freedom for elastic dynamic analysis

Condensation technique of degree of freedom is first proposed to improve the computational efficiency of meshfree method with Galerkin weak form for elastic dynamic analysis. In the present method, scattered nodes without connectivity are divided into several subsets by cells with arbitrary shape. Local discrete equation is established over each cell by using moving Kriging interpolation, in which the nodes that located in the cell are used for approximation. Then local discrete equations can be simplified by condensation of degree of freedom, which transfers equations of inner nodes to equations of boundary nodes based on cells. The global dynamic system equations are obtained by assembling all local discrete equations and are solved by using the standard implicit Newmark’s time integration scheme. In the scheme of present method, the calculation of each cell is carried out by meshfree method, and local search is implemented in interpolation. Numerical examples show that the present method has high computational efficiency and good accuracy in solving elastic dynamic problems.