Fluorescence spectroscopy for the detection of tongue carcinoma - validation in an animal model

The efficacy of fluorescence spectroscopy to detect squamous cell carcinoma is evaluated in an animal model following laser excitation at 442 and 532 nm. Lesions are chemically induced with a topical DMBA application at the left lateral tongue of Golden Syrian hamsters. The animals are investigated every 2 weeks after the 4th week of induction until a total of 26 weeks. The right lateral tongue of each animal is considered as a control site (normal contralateral tissue) and the induced lesions are analyzed as a set of points covering the entire clinically detectable area. Based on fluorescence spectral differences, four indices are determined to discriminate normal and carcinoma tissues, based on intraspectral analysis. The spectral data are also analyzed using a multivariate data analysis and the results are compared with histology as the diagnostic gold standard. The best result achieved is for blue excitation using the KNN (K-nearest neighbor, a interspectral analysis) algorithm with a sensitivity of 95.7% and a specificity of 91.6%. These high indices indicate that fluorescence spectroscopy may constitute a fast noninvasive auxiliary tool for diagnostic of cancer within the oral cavity. (C) 2008 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Statistics of opinion domains of the majority-vote model on a square lattice

The existence of juxtaposed regions of distinct cultures in spite of the fact that people's beliefs have a tendency to become more similar to each other's as the individuals interact repeatedly is a puzzling phenomenon in the social sciences. Here we study an extreme version of the frequency-dependent bias model of social influence in which an individual adopts the opinion shared by the majority of the members of its extended neighborhood, which includes the individual itself. This is a variant of the majority-vote model in which the individual retains its opinion in case there is a tie among the neighbors' opinions. We assume that the individuals are fixed in the sites of a square lattice of linear size L and that they interact with their nearest neighbors only. Within a mean-field framework, we derive the equations of motion for the density of individuals adopting a particular opinion in the single-site and pair approximations. Although the single-site approximation predicts a single opinion domain that takes over the entire lattice, the pair approximation yields a qualitatively correct picture with the coexistence of different opinion domains and a strong dependence on the initial conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations indicate the existence of a rich distribution of opinion domains or clusters, the number of which grows with L(2) whereas the size of the largest cluster grows with ln L(2). The analysis of the sizes of the opinion domains shows that they obey a power-law distribution for not too large sizes but that they are exponentially distributed in the limit of very large clusters. In addition, similarly to other well-known social influence model-Axelrod's model-we found that these opinion domains are unstable to the effect of a thermal-like noise.

LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GENERAL STOCHASTIC RUMOUR MODEL

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.

The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

The Community Climate Model (CCM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed. A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM) and spring (SON) precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent. An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and remote influences, however, are confounded by the large internal variance in the region. During MAM and JJA, the South Atlantic SST anomalies affect the magnitude and the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. In JJA, the ENSO has relatively little influence on the interannual variability of the simulated rainfall. During SON, however, the ENSO seems to counteract the effect of the subtropical South Atlantic SST variations on convection over South America.

Mechanism and model of the oscillatory electro-oxidation of methanol

A mechanism for the kinetic instabilities observed in the galvanostatic electro-oxidation of methanol is suggested and a model developed. The model is investigated using stoichiometric network analysis as well as concepts from algebraic geometry (polynomial rings and ideal theory) revealing the occurrence of a Hopf and a saddle-node bifurcation. These analytical solutions are confirmed by numerical integration of the system of differential equations. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics

Environmental and grazing influence on spatial variability of intertidal biofilm on subtropical rocky shores

Epilithic biofilm on rocky shores is regulated by physico-chemical and biological factors and is important as a source of food for benthic organisms. The influences of environmental and grazing pressure on spatial variability of biomass of biofilm were evaluated on shores on the north coast of Sao Paulo State (SE Brazil). A general trend of greater abundance of microalgae was observed lower on the shore, but neither of the environmental factors evaluated (wave exposure and shore level) showed consistent effects, and differences were found among specific shores or times (September 2007 and March 2008). The abundance of slow-moving grazers (limpets and littorinids) showed a negative correlation with chlorophyll a concentration on shores. However, experimental exclusion of these grazers failed to show consistent results at small spatial scales. Observations of divergent abundances of the isopod Ligia exotica and biomass of biofilm on isolated boulders on shores led to a short exclusion experiment, where the grazing pressure by L. exotica significantly decreased microalgal biomass. The result suggests that grazing activities of this fast-moving consumer probably mask the influence of slow-moving grazers at small spatial scales, while both have an additive effect at larger scales that masks environmental influences. This is the first evaluation of the impact of the fast-moving herbivore L. exotica on microalgal biomass on rocky shores and opens an interesting discussion about the role of these organisms in subtropical coastal environments.

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

DISTRIBUTION OF CAPYBARAS IN AN AGROECOSYSTEM, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL, BASED ON ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

Southeastern Brazil has seen dramatic landscape modifications in recent decades, due to expansion of agriculture and urban areas; these changes have influenced the distribution and abundance of vertebrates. We developed predictive models of ecological and spatial distributions of capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) using ecological niche modeling. Most Occurrences of capybaras were in flat areas with water bodies Surrounded by sugarcane and pasture. More than 75% of the Piracicaba River basin was estimated as potentially habitable by capybara. The models had low omission error (2.3-3.4%), but higher commission error (91.0-98.5%); these ""model failures"" seem to be more related to local habitat characteristics than to spatial ones. The potential distribution of capybaras in the basin is associated with anthropogenic habitats, particularly with intensive land use for agriculture.

Understanding the Influences of Spatial Patterns on N Availability Within the Brazilian Amazon Forest

Nitrogen variations at different spatial scales and integrated across functional groups were addressed for lowland tropical forests in the Brazilian Amazon as follows: (1) how does N availability vary across the region over different spatial scales (regional x landscape scale); ( 2) how are these variations in N availability integrated across plant functional groups ( legume 9 non-legume trees). Leaf N, P, and Ca concentrations as well the leaf N isotope ratios (delta(15)N) from a large set of legume and non-legume tree species were measured. Legumes had higher foliar N/Ca ratios than non-legumes, consistent with the high energetic costs in plant growth associated with higher foliar P/Ca ratios found in legumes than in non-legumes. At the regional level, foliar delta(15)N decreased with increasing rainfall. At the landscape level, N availability was higher in the forests on clayey soils on the plateau than in forests on sandier soils. The isotope as well as the non-isotope data relationships here documented, explain to a large extent the variation in delta(15)N signatures across gradients of rainfall and soil. Although at the regional level, the precipitation regime is a major determinant of differences in N availability, at the landscape level, under the same precipitation regime, soil type seems to be a major factor influencing the availability of N in the Brazilian Amazon forest.

Dynamics of carbon, biomass, and structure in two Amazonian forests

Amazon forests are potentially globally significant sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. In this study, we characterize the spatial trends in carbon storage and fluxes in both live and dead biomass (necromass) in two Amazonian forests, the Biological Dynamic of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP), near Manaus, Amazonas, and the Tapajos National Forest (TNF) near Santarem, Para. We assessed coarse woody debris (CWD) stocks, tree growth, mortality, and recruitment in ground-based plots distributed across the terra firme forest at both sites. Carbon dynamics were similar within each site, but differed significantly between the sites. The BDFFP and the TNF held comparable live biomass (167 +/- 7.6 MgC.ha(-1) versus 149 +/- 6.0 MgC.ha(-1), respectively), but stocks of CWD were 2.5 times larger at TNF (16.2 +/- 1.5 MgC.ha(-1) at BDFFP, versus 40.1 +/- 3.9 MgC.ha(-1) at TNF). A model of current forest dynamics suggests that the BDFFP was close to carbon balance, and its size class structure approximated a steady state. The TNF, by contrast, showed rapid carbon accrual to live biomass (3.24 +/- 0.22 MgC.ha(-1).a(-1) in TNF, 2.59 +/- 0.16 MgC.ha(-1).a(-1) in BDFFP), which was more than offset by losses from large stocks of CWD, as well as ongoing shifts of biomass among size classes. This pattern in the TNF suggests recovery from a significant disturbance. The net loss of carbon from the TNF will likely last 10 - 15 years after the initial disturbance (controlled by the rate of decay of coarse woody debris), followed by uptake of carbon as the forest size class structure and composition continue to shift. The frequency and longevity of forests showing such disequilibruim dynamics within the larger matrix of the Amazon remains an essential question to understanding Amazonian carbon balance.

Small rivers in the southwestern Amazon and their role in CO(2) outgassing

A recent estimate of CO(2) outgassing from Amazonian wetlands suggests that an order of magnitude more CO(2) leaves rivers through gas exchange with the atmosphere than is exported to the ocean as organic plus inorganic carbon. However, the contribution of smaller rivers is still poorly understood, mainly because of limitations in mapping their spatial extent. Considering that the largest extension of the Amazon River network is composed of small rivers, the authors` objective was to elucidate their role in air-water CO(2) exchange by developing a geographic information system ( GIS)- based model to calculate the surface area covered by rivers with channels less than 100 m wide, combined with estimated CO(2) outgassing rates at the Ji-Parana River basin, in the western Amazon. Estimated CO(2) outgassing was the main carbon export pathway for this river basin, totaling 289 Gg C yr(-1), about 2.4 times the amount of carbon exported as dissolved inorganic carbon ( 121 Gg C yr(-1)) and 1.6 times the dissolved organic carbon export ( 185 Gg C yr(-1)). The relationships established here between drainage area and channel width provide a new model for determining small river surface area, allowing regional extrapolations of air - water gas exchange. Applying this model to the entire Amazon River network of channels less than 100 m wide ( third to fifth order), the authors calculate that the surface area of small rivers is 0.3 +/- 0.05 million km(2), and it is potentially evading to the atmosphere 170 +/- 42 Tg C yr(-1) as CO(2). Therefore, these ecosystems play an important role in the regional carbon balance.

Spatial variation in the strength of mutualism between a jumping spider and a terrestrial bromeliad: Evidence from the stable isotope N-15

Psecas chapoda, a neotropical jumping spider strictly associated with the terrestrial bromeliad Bromelia balansae in cerrados and semi-deciduous forests in South America, effectively contributes to plant nutrition and growth. In this study, our goal was to investigate if spider density caused spatial variations in the strength of this spider-plant mutualism. We found a positive significant relationship between spider density and delta N-15 values for bromeliad leaves in different forest fragments. Open grassland Bromeliads were associated with spiders and had higher delta N-15 values compared to forest bromeliads. Although forest bromeliads had no association with spiders their total N concentrations were higher. These results suggest that bromeliad nutrition is likely more litter-based in forests and more spider-based in open grasslands. This study is one of the few to show nutrient provisioning and conditionality in a spider-plant system. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Multifractal regime transition in a modified minority game model

The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractality in the random parameter model for multivariate time series

The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.