Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is often perceived as a solution to changes in water availability that have occurred within southern Australia as a result of changes to government policy in response to and exacerbated by climate change. This report examines the likely private, social and community costs and benefits associated with the establishment of a cotton industry in the Burdekin. The research undertaken covers three spatial scales by modelling the response of cotton and to climate change at the crop and farm scale and linking this to regional scale modelling of the economy. Modelling crop growth as either a standalone crop or as part of a farm enterprise provides the clearest picture of how yields and water use will be affected under climate change. The alternative to this is to undertake very costly trials in environmental chambers. For this reason it is critical that funding for model development especially for crops being crop in novel environments be seen as a high priority for climate change and adaptation studies. Crop level simulations not only provide information on how the crop responds to climate change, they also illustrate that that these responses are the result of complex interactions and cannot necessarily be derived from the climate information alone. These simulations showed that climate change would lead to decreased cotton yields in 2030 and 2050 without the affect of CO2 fertilisation. Without CO2 fertilisation, yields would be decreased by 3.2% and 17.8%. Including CO2 fertilisation increased yields initially by 5.9%, but these were reduced by 3.6% in 2050. This still represents a major offset and at least ameliorates the impact of climate change on yield. To cope with the decreased in-crop rainfall (4.5% by 2030 and 15.8% in 2050) and an initial increase in evapotranspiration of 2% in 2030 and

Fluid dynamics of the monsoon

The monsoonal regions of the world are characterized by a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds associated with the excursion of the equatorial trough (or the ITCZ) in response to the variation in the latitude of maximum insolation. This monsoonal circulation is a planetary scale phenomenon. However, the associated precipitation is critically dependent on the organization of the cumulus clouds (typically a few kilometers in horizontal extent) over the scale of synoptic vortices (typically a few hundred kilometers in horizontal extent). Thus modelling of the seasonal transitions and intraseasonal fluctuations requires an understanding of the fluid mechanics of these three scales of organizations and their interactions. The present paper is an attempt to outline the current state of understanding of these phenomena.

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in northern Finland

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in the northern boreal zone in Lapland was studied in two different time scales. Intra-annual growth was monitored in four stands in up to four growing seasons using an approximately biweekly measurement interval. Inter-annual growth was studied using growth records representing seven stands and five geographical locations. All the stands were growing on a dry to semi-dry heath that is a typical site type for pine stands in Finland. The applied methodology is based on applied time-series analysis and multilevel modelling. Intra-annual elongation of the leader shoot correlated with temperature sum accumulation. Height growth ceased when, on average, 41% of the relative temperature sum of the site was achieved (observed minimum and maximum were 38% and 43%). The relative temperature sum was calculated by dividing the actual temperature sum by the long-term mean of the total annual temperature sum for the site. Our results suggest that annual height growth ceases when a location-specific temperature sum threshold is attained. The positive effect of the mean July temperature of the previous year on annual height increment proved to be very strong at high latitudes. The mean November temperature of the year before the previous had a statistically significantly effect on height increment in the three northernmost stands. The effect of mean monthly precipitation on annual height growth was statistically insignificant. There was a non-linear dependence between length and needle density of annual shoots. Exceptionally low height growth results in high needle-density, but the effect is weaker in years of average or good height growth. Radial growth and next year s height growth are both largely controlled by current July temperature. Nevertheless, their growth variation in terms of minimum and maximum is not necessarily strongly correlated. This is partly because height growth is more sensitive to changes in temperature. In addition, the actual effective temperature period is not exactly the same for these two growth components. Yet, there is a long-term balance that was also statistically distinguishable; radial growth correlated significantly with height growth with a lag of 2 years. Temperature periods shorter than a month are more effective variables than mean monthly values, but the improvement is on the scale of modest to good when applying Julian days or growing-degree-days as pointers.

Finite-amplitude love-waves on an isotropic layered half-space

A pair of semi-linear hyperbolic partial differential equations governing the slow variations in amplitude and phase of a quasi-monochromatic finite-amplitude Love-wave on an isotropic layered half-space is derived using the method of multiple-scales. The analysis of the exact solution of these equations for a signalling problem reveals that the amplitude of the wave remains constant along its characteristic and that the phase of the wave increases linearly behind the wave-front.

Studying the diurnal and seasonal acclimation of photosystem Ii using chlorophyll-a fluorescence

A small fraction of the energy absorbed in the light reactions of photosynthesis is re-emitted as chlorophyll-a fluorescence. Chlorophyll-a fluorescence and photochemistry compete for excitation energy in photosystem II (PSII). Therefore, changes in the photochemical capacity can be detected through analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence. Chlorophyll fluorescence techniques have been widely used to follow the diurnal (fast), and the seasonal (slow) acclimation in the energy partitioning between photochemical and non-photochemical processes in PSII. Energy partitioning in PSII estimated through chlorophyll fluorescence can be used as a proxy of the plant physiological status, and measured at different spatial and temporal scales. However, a number of technical and theoretical limitations still limit the use of chlorophyll fluorescence data for the study of the acclimation of PSII. The aim of this Thesis was to study the diurnal and seasonal acclimation of PSII in field conditions through the development and testing of new chlorophyll fluorescence-based tools, overcoming these limitations. A new model capable of following the fast acclimation of PSII to rapid fluctuations in light intensity was developed. The model was used to study the rapid acclimation in the electron transport rate under fluctuating light. Additionally, new chlorophyll fluorescence parameters were developed for estimating the seasonal acclimation in the sustained rate constant of thermal energy dissipation and photochemistry. The parameters were used to quantitatively evaluate the effect of light and temperature on the seasonal acclimation of PSII. The results indicated that light environment not only affected the degree but also the kinetics of response of the acclimation to temperature, which was attributed to differences in the structural organization of PSII during seasonal acclimation. Furthermore, zeaxanthin-facilitated thermal dissipation appeared to be the main mechanisms modulating the fraction of absorbed energy being dissipated thermally during winter in field Scots pine. Finally, the integration between diurnal and seasonal acclimation mechanisms was studied using a recently developed instrument MONI-PAM (Walz GmbH, Germany) capable of continuously monitoring the energy partitioning in PSII.

Fen ecosystem carbon gas dynamics in changing hydrological conditions

Northern peatlands are thought to store one third of all soil carbon (C). Besides the C sink function, peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Climate change may affect the C gas dynamics as well as the labile C pool. Because the peatland C sequestration and CH4 emissions are governed by high water levels, changes in hydrology are seen as the driving factor in peatland ecosystem change. This study aimed to quantify the carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 dynamics of a fen ecosystem at different spatial scales: plant community components scale, plant community scale and ecosystem scale, under hydrologically normal and water level drawdown conditions. C gas exchange was measured in two fens in southern Finland applying static chamber and eddy covariance techniques. During hydrologically normal conditions, the ecosystem was a CO2 sink and CH4 source to the atmosphere. Sphagnum mosses and sedges were the most important contributors to the community photosynthesis. The presence of sedges had a major positive impact on CH4 emissions while dwarf shrubs had a slightly attenuating impact. C fluxes varied considerably between the plant communities. Therefore, their proportions determined the ecosystem scale fluxes. An experimental water level drawdown markedly reduced the photosynthesis and respiration of sedges and Sphagnum mosses and benefited shrubs. Consequently, changes were smaller at the ecosystem scale than at the plant group scale. The decrease in photosynthesis and the increase in respiration, mostly peat respiration, made the fen a smaller CO2 sink. CH4 fluxes were significantly lowered, close to zero. The impact of natural droughts was similar to, although more modest than, the impact of the experimental water level drawdown. The results are applicable to the short term impacts of the water level drawdown and to climatic conditions in which droughts become more frequent.

Plant species diversity of buffer zones in agricultural landscapes: in search of determinants from the local to regional scale

Buffer zones are vegetated strip-edges of agricultural fields along watercourses. As linear habitats in agricultural ecosystems, buffer strips dominate and play a leading ecological role in many areas. This thesis focuses on the plant species diversity of the buffer zones in a Finnish agricultural landscape. The main objective of the present study is to identify the determinants of floral species diversity in arable buffer zones from local to regional levels. This study was conducted in a watershed area of a farmland landscape of southern Finland. The study area, Lepsämänjoki, is situated in the Nurmijärvi commune 30 km to the north of Helsinki, Finland. The biotope mosaics were mapped in GIS. A total of 59 buffer zones were surveyed, of which 29 buffer strips surveyed were also sampled by plot. Firstly, two diversity components (species richness and evenness) were investigated to determine whether the relationship between the two is equal and predictable. I found no correlation between species richness and evenness. The relationship between richness and evenness is unpredictable in a small-scale human-shaped ecosystem. Ordination and correlation analyses show that richness and evenness may result from different ecological processes, and thus should be considered separately. Species richness correlated negatively with phosphorus content, and species evenness correlated negatively with the ratio of organic carbon to total nitrogen in soil. The lack of a consistent pattern in the relationship between these two components may be due to site-specific variation in resource utilization by plant species. Within-habitat configuration (width, length, and area) were investigated to determine which is more effective for predicting species richness. More species per unit area increment could be obtained from widening the buffer strip than from lengthening it. The width of the strips is an effective determinant of plant species richness. The increase in species diversity with an increase in the width of buffer strips may be due to cross-sectional habitat gradients within the linear patches. This result can serve as a reference for policy makers, and has application value in agricultural management. In the framework of metacommunity theory, I found that both mass effect(connectivity) and species sorting (resource heterogeneity) were likely to explain species composition and diversity on a local and regional scale. The local and regional processes were interactively dominated by the degree to which dispersal perturbs local communities. In the lowly and intermediately connected regions, species sorting was of primary importance to explain species diversity, while the mass effect surpassed species sorting in the highly connected region. Increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities, and consequently, to lower regional diversity, while local species richness was unrelated to the habitat connectivity. Of all species found, Anthriscus sylvestris, Phalaris arundinacea, and Phleum pretense significantly responded to connectivity, and showed high abundance in the highly connected region. We suggest that these species may play a role in switching the force from local resources to regional connectivity shaping the community structure. On the landscape context level, the different responses of local species richness and evenness to landscape context were investigated. Seven landscape structural parameters served to indicate landscape context on five scales. On all scales but the smallest scales, the Shannon-Wiener diversity of land covers (H') correlated positively with the local richness. The factor (H') showed the highest correlation coefficients in species richness on the second largest scale. The edge density of arable field was the only predictor that correlated with species evenness on all scales, which showed the highest predictive power on the second smallest scale. The different predictive power of the factors on different scales showed a scaledependent relationship between the landscape context and local plant species diversity, and indicated that different ecological processes determine species richness and evenness. The local richness of species depends on a regional process on large scales, which may relate to the regional species pool, while species evenness depends on a fine- or coarse-grained farming system, which may relate to the patch quality of the habitats of field edges near the buffer strips. My results suggested some guidelines of species diversity conservation in the agricultural ecosystem. To maintain a high level of species diversity in the strips, a high level of phosphorus in strip soil should be avoided. Widening the strips is the most effective mean to improve species richness. Habitat connectivity is not always favorable to species diversity because increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities (beta diversity) and, consequently, to lower regional diversity. Overall, a synthesis of local and regional factors emerged as the model that best explain variations in plant species diversity. The studies also suggest that the effects of determinants on species diversity have a complex relationship with scale.

Role of conformational dynamics in kinetics of an enzymatic cycle in a nonequilibrium steady state

Enzyme is a dynamic entity with diverse time scales, ranging from picoseconds to seconds or even longer. Here we develop a rate theory for enzyme catalysis that includes conformational dynamics as cycling on a two-dimensional (2D) reaction free energy surface involving an intrinsic reaction coordinate (X) and an enzyme conformational coordinate (Q). The validity of Michaelis-Menten (MM) equation, i.e., substrate concentration dependence of enzymatic velocity, is examined under a nonequilibrium steady state. Under certain conditions, the classic MM equation holds but with generalized microscopic interpretations of kinetic parameters. However, under other conditions, our rate theory predicts either positive (sigmoidal-like) or negative (biphasic-like) kinetic cooperativity due to the modified effective 2D reaction pathway on X-Q surface, which can explain non-MM dependence previously observed on many monomeric enzymes that involve slow or hysteretic conformational transitions. Furthermore, we find that a slow conformational relaxation during product release could retain the enzyme in a favorable configuration, such that enzymatic turnover is dynamically accelerated at high substrate concentrations. The effect of such conformation retainment in a nonequilibrium steady state is evaluated.

Scaling results up from a plot and paddock scale to a property - a case study from a long-term grazing experiment in northern Australia

Grazing experiments are usually used to quantify and demonstrate the biophysical impact of grazing strategies, with the Wambiana grazing experiment being one of the longest running such experiments in northern Australia. Previous economic analyses of this experiment suggest that there is a major advantage in stocking at a fixed, moderate stocking rate or in using decision rules allowing flexible stocking to match available feed supply. The present study developed and applied a modelling procedure to use data collected at the small plot, land type and paddock scales at the experimental site to simulate the property-level implications of a range of stocking rates for a breeding-finishing cattle enterprise. The greatest economic performance was achieved at a moderate stocking rate of 10.5 adult equivalents 100 ha(-1). For the same stocking rate over time, the fixed stocking strategy gave a greater economic performance than strategies that involved moderate changes to stocking rates each year in response to feed supply. Model outcomes were consistent with previous economic analyses using experimental data. Further modelling of the experimental data is warranted and similar analyses could be applied to other major grazing experiments to allow the scaling of results to greater scales.

Dynamics of dense sheared granular flows. Part 1. Structure and diffusion

Shear flows of inelastic spheres in three dimensions in the Volume fraction range 0.4-0.64 are analysed using event-driven simulations.Particle interactions are considered to be due to instantaneous binary collisions, and the collision model has a normal coefficient of restitution e(n) (negative of the ratio of the post- and pre-collisional relative velocities of the particles along the line joining the centres) and a tangential coefficient of restitution e(t) (negative of the ratio of post- and pre-collisional velocities perpendicular to the line Joining the centres). Here, we have considered both e(t) = +1 and e(t) = e(n) (rough particles) and e(t) =-1 (smooth particles), and the normal coefficient of restitution e(n) was varied in the range 0.6-0.98. Care was taken to avoid inelastic collapse and ensure there are no particle overlaps during the simulation. First, we studied the ordering in the system by examining the icosahedral order parameter Q(6) in three dimensions and the planar order parameter q(6) in the plane perpendicular to the gradient direction. It was found that for shear flows of sufficiently large size, the system Continues to be in the random state, with Q(6) and q(6) close to 0, even for volume fractions between phi = 0.5 and phi = 0.6; in contrast, for a system of elastic particles in the absence of shear, the system orders (crystallizes) at phi = 0.49. This indicates that the shear flow prevents ordering in a system of sufficiently large size. In a shear flow of inelastic particles, the strain rate and the temperature are related through the energy balance equation, and all time scales can be non-dimensionalized by the inverse of the strain rate. Therefore, the dynamics of the system are determined only by the volume fraction and the coefficients of restitution. The variation of the collision frequency with volume fraction and coefficient of estitution was examined. It was found, by plotting the inverse of the collision frequency as a function of volume fraction, that the collision frequency at constant strain rate diverges at a volume fraction phi(ad) (volume fraction for arrested dynamics) which is lower than the random close-packing Volume fraction 0.64 in the absence of shear. The volume fraction phi(ad) decreases as the coefficient of restitution is decreased from e(n) = 1; phi(ad) has a minimum of about 0.585 for coefficient of restitution e(n) in the range 0.6-0.8 for rough particles and is slightly larger for smooth particles. It is found that the dissipation rate and all components of the stress diverge proportional to the collision frequency in the close-packing limit. The qualitative behaviour of the increase in the stress and dissipation rate are well Captured by results derived from kinetic theory, but the quantitative agreement is lacking even if the collision frequency obtained from simulations is used to calculate the pair correlation function used In the theory.

Development and preliminary validation of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire (DESV-Q): A purpose-specific instrument for rape-perception research

Background Alcohol expectancies likely play a role in people’s perceptions of alcohol-involved sexual violence. However, no appropriate measure exists to examine this link comprehensively. Objective The aim of this research was to develop an alcohol expectancy measure which captures young adults’ beliefs about alcohol’s role in sexual aggression and victimization. Method Two cross-sectional samples of young Australian adults (18–25 years) were recruited for scale development (Phase 1) and scale validation (Phase 2). In Phase 1, participants (N = 201; 38.3% males) completed an online survey with an initial pool of alcohol expectancy items stated in terms of three targets (self, men, women) to identify the scale’s factor structure and most effective items. A revised alcohol expectancy scale was then administered online to 322 young adults (39.6% males) in Phase 2. To assess the predictive, convergent, and discriminant validity of the scale, participants also completed established measures of personality, social desirability, alcohol use, general and context-specific alcohol expectancies, and impulsiveness. Results Principal axis factoring (Phase 1) and confirmatory factor analysis (Phase 2) resulted in a target-equivalent five-factor structure for the final 66-item Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire (DESV-Q). The factors were labeled: - (1) Sexual Coercion - (2) Sexual Vulnerability - (3) Confidence - (4) Self-Centeredness - (5) Negative Cognitive and Behavioral Changes The measure demonstrated effective items, high internal consistency, and satisfactory predictive, convergent, and discriminant validity. Conclusions The DESV-Q is a purpose-specific instrument that could be used in future research to elucidate people’s attributions for alcohol-involved sexual aggression and victimization.

Employees’ eldercare demands, strain, and perceived support

Purpose In many countries, both the number of older people in need of care and the number of employed caregivers of elderly relatives will increase over the next decades. The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which perceived organizational, supervisor, and coworker support for eldercare reduce employed caregivers’ strain and weaken the relationship between eldercare demands and strain. Design/methodology/approach Survey data were collected from 100 employed caregivers from one organization. Findings Results showed that eldercare demands were positively related to strain, and perceived organizational eldercare support (POES) was negatively related to strain. In addition, high POES weakened the relationship between eldercare demands and strain. Research limitations/implications The cross-sectional design and use of self-report scales constitute limitations of the study. Practical implications POES is a resource for employed caregivers, especially when their eldercare demands are high. Originality/value This research highlights the relative importance of different forms of perceived support for reducing employed caregivers’ strain and weakening the relationship between eldercare demands and strain.

A Paddock to reef monitoring and modelling framework for the Great Barrier Reef: Paddock and catchment component

Targets for improvements in water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been set through the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (Reef Plan). To measure and report on progress towards the targets set a program has been established that combines monitoring and modelling at paddock through to catchment and reef scales; the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock to Reef Program). This program aims to provide evidence of links between land management activities, water quality and reef health. Five lines of evidence are used: the effectiveness of management practices to improve water quality; the prevalence of management practice adoption and change in catchment indicators; long-term monitoring of catchment water quality; paddock & catchment modelling to provide a relative assessment of progress towards meeting targets; and finally marine monitoring of GBR water quality and reef ecosystem health. This paper outlines the first four lines of evidence. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal and paternal support for physical activity and healthy eating in preschool children: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Parental support is a key influence on children's health behaviours; however, no previous investigation has simultaneously explored the influence of mothers' and fathers' social support on eating and physical activity in preschool-aged children. This study evaluated the singular and combined effects of maternal and paternal support for physical activity (PA) and fruit and vegetable consumption (FV) on preschoolers' PA and FV. METHODS A random sample comprising 173 parent-child dyads completed validated scales assessing maternal and paternal instrumental support and child PA and FV behaviour. Pearson correlations, controlling for child age, parental age, and parental education, were used to evaluate relationships between maternal and paternal support and child PA and FV. K-means cluster analysis was used to identify families with distinct patterns of maternal and paternal support for PA and FV, and one-way ANOVA examined the impact of cluster membership on child PA and FV. RESULTS Maternal and paternal support for PA were positively associated with child PA (r = 0.37 and r = 0.36, respectively; P < 0.001). Maternal but not paternal support for FV was positively associated with child FV (r = 0.35; P < 0.001). Five clusters characterised groups of families with distinct configurations of maternal and paternal support for PA and FV: 1) above average maternal and paternal support for PA and FV, 2) below average maternal and paternal support for PA and FV, 3) above average maternal and paternal support for PA but below average maternal and paternal support for FV, 4) above average maternal and paternal support for FV but below average maternal and paternal support for PA, and 5) above average maternal support but below average paternal support for PA and FV. Children from families with above average maternal and paternal support for both health behaviours had higher PA and FV levels than children from families with above average support for just one health behaviour, or below average support for both behaviours. CONCLUSIONS The level and consistency of instrumental support from mothers and fathers for PA and FV may be an important target for obesity prevention in preschool-aged children.