986 resultados para Probability and Statistics
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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia de Electrónica e Telecomunicações
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of homicide mortality in the state of Bahia, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS Ecological study of the 15 to 39-year old male population in the state of Bahia in the period 1996-2010. Data from the Mortality Information System, relating to homicide (X85-Y09) and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were used. The existence of spatial correlation, the presence of clusters and critical areas of the event studied were analyzed using Moran’s I Global and Local indices. RESULTS A non-random spatial pattern was observed in the distribution of rates, as was the presence of three clusters, the first in the north health district, the second in the eastern region, and the third cluster included townships in the south and the far south of Bahia. CONCLUSIONS The homicide mortality in the three different critical areas requires further studies that consider the socioeconomic, cultural and environmental characteristics in order to guide specific preventive and interventionist practices.
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Recent studies of mobile Web trends show the continued explosion of mobile-friend content. However, the wide number and heterogeneity of mobile devices poses several challenges for Web programmers, who want automatic delivery of context and adaptation of the content to mobile devices. Hence, the device detection phase assumes an important role in this process. In this chapter, the authors compare the most used approaches for mobile device detection. Based on this study, they present an architecture for detecting and delivering uniform m-Learning content to students in a Higher School. The authors focus mainly on the XML device capabilities repository and on the REST API Web Service for dealing with device data. In the former, the authors detail the respective capabilities schema and present a new caching approach. In the latter, they present an extension of the current API for dealing with it. Finally, the authors validate their approach by presenting the overall data and statistics collected through the Google Analytics service, in order to better understand the adherence to the mobile Web interface, its evolution over time, and the main weaknesses.
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Física - Física Aplicada pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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Population dynamics have been attracting interest since many years. Among the considered models, the Richards’ equations remain one of the most popular to describe biological growth processes. On the other hand, Allee effect is currently a major focus of ecological research, which occurs when positive density dependence dominates at low densities. In this chapter, we propose the dynamical study of classes of functions based on Richards’ models describing the existence or not of Allee effect. We investigate bifurcation structures in generalized Richards’ functions and we look for the conditions in the (β, r) parameter plane for the existence of a weak Allee effect region. We show that the existence of this region is related with the existence of a dovetail structure. When the Allee limit varies, the weak Allee effect region disappears when the dovetail structure also disappears. Consequently, we deduce the transition from the weak Allee effect to no Allee effect to this family of functions. To support our analysis, we present fold and flip bifurcation curves and numerical simulations of several bifurcation diagrams.
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RESUMO: O presente estudo teve como objectivo avaliar a efectividade de um programa de intervenção de fisioterapia comparativamente ao tratamento conservador (calor húmido, ultra-som e massagem), relativamente à dor e capacidade funcional, no utente idoso com doença osteoarticular do joelho. A amostra foi aleatória, tendo sido seleccionados 20 utentes que respeitaram os critérios de inclusão, e que foram distribuídos aleatoriamente pelos dois grupos de tratamento, 9 no grupo A (experimental) e 11 no grupo B (controle). Todos os utentes deram o seu consentimento informado. Trata-se de um estudo experimental, controlado aleatorizado (RCT). A intervenção em estudo consistiu em 15 sessões de tratamento individuais, efectuadas 3 vezes por semana. O programa terapêutico efectuado pelo grupo A incluiu o tratamento conservador (20 minutos calor húmido, 5 minutos ultra-som (contínuo; 1,5W/cm2) e aproximadamente 10 minutos de massagem local) e o protocolo de exercícios terapêuticos em estudo. Este protocolo de exercícios foi progredindo semanalmente em termos da sua intensidade. Os utentes do Grupo B efectuaram apenas o tratamento conservador (tal como no grupo A). Para avaliar a dor e a capacidade funcional foi utilizado o Questionário knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score. A análise dos resultados foi realizada através dos testes Mann-Whitney e Kruskal-Wallis para a comparação entre grupos. Os resultados sugerem não haver diferenças estatisticamente significativos entre os grupos, embora o grupo de controle tenha obtido melhores resultados. O grupo B apresentou uma diminuição da dor de 17,33, comparativamente aos valores de -3,00 no grupo A (p=0,101), e melhoria da capacidade funcional de 13,00, mantendo-se a capacidade funcional igual, no grupo A (0,00) p=0,080). Estes resultados parecem sugerir que não há diferenças significativas entre as duas modalidades de intervenção, realçando a necessidade de continuar a investigar este protocolo de exercícios e a sua efectividade.-----------------ABSTRACT: The aims of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment program compared with conventional treatment (post hoots, ultrasound and massage), for the outcomes pain and functional ability in elderly with knee osteoarthritis. The sample was non-probability, and 20 patients have been selected that fulfilled the criteria for inclusion and who were randomly assigned to the two treatment groups, in group A and 11 in group B. All of the patients gave their informed consent. This is an experimental, randomized controlled trial (RCT) with blinded assessment, of comparative design. This study protocol program was carry out in 15 individual treatment sessions, 3x per week. The therapeutic program made by group A consisted of the performance of conservative treatment: 20 minutes of hot packs, 5 minutes of ultrasound (continuous, 1.5 W/cm2) and 10 minutes of massage plus the exercise protocol therapy consisted of: isometric exercises of quadriceps contractions, muscle strengthening for knee and aerobic training. This exercise protocol was progressing every week in terms of its intensity. The users in Group B, only made the conservative treatment (such as in group A). In this study there were evaluated the pain and functional capacity, assessed by questionnaire knee Injury Osteoarthritis Outcome Score. For comparison between groups were used Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. The results revealed that in group B was that it obtained better results, although they are not statistical significance. The group B show a decrease in pain of 17.33 compared to -3.00 in group A (p = 0.101), and improved capacity functional of 13.00, keeping in group A (0.00) (p = 0.080). However, the differences are not statistically significant. These results show that there are not statistically significant in both treatments, but more studies are needed.
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This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica
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A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of the Masters in Molecular Genetics and Biomedicine
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This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.
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This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.
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The conflicts currently taking place around the world demand that the international intervention fits the intensity and extent of the threat. This is particularly important in post-conflict scenarios, leading to a greater participation of the Security Forces in those scenarios, in order to foster lasting peace, enforce the order and improve law enforcement services in those regions. The transition from armed conflict to peacekeeping may entail high risk situations and greater instability periods, so-called “intermediate situations”. Accordingly, in the face of persisting high volatility, a robust response is still required post-conflict. Therefore, it is appropriate to deploy Security Forces with military nature and status, the gendarmeries, which have training and response capabilities similar to Armed Forces in peacekeeping operations. Their double facet as police and military forces enables them to perform police duties in high risk and unsafe environments. In light of these features, the Portuguese gendarmerie, Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR), is able to carry out tasks in these scenarios, which it has been doing through individual operatives or larger units. This dissertation focuses on the use of Security Forces of military nature in peacekeeping missions, in particular the Portuguese GNR, relying mostly on the inductive approach and using literature research, document analysis, interviews and statistics. After a brief description of international peacekeeping missions, we describe the contribution of Security Forces of a military nature in such operations. Then we introduce and analyse the GNR, focusing on its deployment in different kinds of peacekeeping operations, from its first participation in 1995 until today. We also report some reactions to the performance of GNR. Finally, we discuss whether there is indeed a unique role for this type of forces in international peacekeeping missions.
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Introduction Collaboration is one of the defining features of contemporary scientific research, and it is particularly important with regard to neglected diseases that primarily affect developing countries. Methods The present study has identified publications on leishmaniasis in the Medline database from 1945 to 2010, analyzing them according to bibliometric indicators and statistics from social network analysis. Examining aspects such as scientific production, diachronic evolution, and collaboration and configuration of the research groups in the field, we have considered the different types of Leishmania studied and the institutional affiliation and nationality of the authors. Results Seven-hundred and thirty-five authors participate in 154 prominent research clusters or groups. Although the most predominant and consolidated collaborations are characterized by members from the same country studying the same type of Leishmania, there are also notable links between authors from different countries or who study different clinical strains of the disease. Brazil took the lead in this research, with numerous Brazilian researchers heading different clusters in the center of the collaboration network. Investigators from the USA, India, and European countries, such as France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy, also stand out within the network. Conclusions Research should be fostered in countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Sudan, and Ethiopia, where there is a high prevalence of different forms of the disease but limited research development with reference authors integrated into the collaboration networks.
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The Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (iSAX) is widely used in time series data mining. Its popularity arises from the fact that it largely reduces time series size, it is symbolic, allows lower bounding and is space efficient. However, it requires setting two parameters: the symbolic length and alphabet size, which limits the applicability of the technique. The optimal parameter values are highly application dependent. Typically, they are either set to a fixed value or experimentally probed for the best configuration. In this work we propose an approach to automatically estimate iSAX’s parameters. The approach – AutoiSAX – not only discovers the best parameter setting for each time series in the database, but also finds the alphabet size for each iSAX symbol within the same word. It is based on simple and intuitive ideas from time series complexity and statistics. The technique can be smoothly embedded in existing data mining tasks as an efficient sub-routine. We analyze its impact in visualization interpretability, classification accuracy and motif mining. Our contribution aims to make iSAX a more general approach as it evolves towards a parameter-free method.
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Tese de Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança (área de especialização em Sociologia da Infância).